Living Wages
Leisure Luxuries and the Labor Supply of Young Men
Mark Aguiar et al.
Journal of Political Economy, February 2021, Pages 337–382
Abstract:
We propose a methodology exploiting time diary data and “leisure Engel curves” to infer quality changes across leisure activities and measure the effects on the marginal return to leisure. We study leisure returns for men aged 21–30, who have shifted leisure toward video gaming and recreational computing and have had larger market work hour declines than older men or women since 2004. We show that recreational computing is distinctly a leisure luxury for younger men. By increasing the value of time, innovations to this leisure technology have lowered young men's work hours by 2%, or much of their work hours decline compared to older men's.
Myth or Measurement: What Does the New Minimum Wage Research Say about Minimum Wages and Job Loss in the United States?
David Neumark & Peter Shirley
NBER Working Paper, January 2021
Abstract:
The disagreement among studies of the employment effects of minimum wages in the United States is well known. What is less well known, and more puzzling, is the absence of agreement on what the research literature says – that is, how economists even summarize the body of evidence on the employment effects of minimum wages. Summaries range from “it is now well-established that higher minimum wages do not reduce employment,” to “the evidence is very mixed with effects centered on zero so there is no basis for a strong conclusion one way or the other,” to “most evidence points to adverse employment effects.” We explore the question of what conclusions can be drawn from the literature, focusing on the evidence using subnational minimum wage variation within the United States that has dominated the research landscape since the early 1990s. To accomplish this, we assembled the entire set of published studies in this literature and identified the core estimates that support the conclusions from each study, in most cases relying on responses from the researchers who wrote these papers. Our key conclusions are: (i) there is a clear preponderance of negative estimates in the literature; (ii) this evidence is stronger for teens and young adults as well as the less-educated; (iii) the evidence from studies of directly-affected workers points even more strongly to negative employment effects; and (iv) the evidence from studies of low-wage industries is less one-sided.
Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes
Doruk Cengiz et al.
NBER Working Paper, January 2021
Abstract:
We assess the effect of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes such as employment, unemployment, and labor force participation for most workers affected by the policy. We apply modern machine learning tools to construct demographically-based treatment groups capturing around 75% of all minimum wage workers — a major improvement over the literature which has focused on fairly narrow subgroups where the policy has a large bite (e.g., teens). By exploiting 172 prominent minimum wages between 1979 and 2019 we find that there is a very clear increase in average wages of workers in these groups following a minimum wage increase, while there is little evidence of employment loss. Furthermore, we find no indication that minimum wage has a negative effect on the unemployment rate, on the labor force participation, or on the labor market transitions. Furthermore, we detect no employment or participation responses even for sub-groups that are likely to have a high extensive margin labor supply elasticity — such as teens, older workers, or single mothers. Overall, these findings provide little evidence for changing search effort in response to a minimum wage increase.
Are Minimum Wage Effects Greater in Low‐Wage Areas?
Anna Godoey & Michael Reich
Industrial Relations, forthcoming
Abstract:
Empirical work on the minimum wage typically estimates effects averaged across high‐ and low‐wage areas. Low‐wage labor markets could potentially be less able to absorb minimum wage increases, in turn leading to more negative employment effects. In this article, we examine minimum wage effects in low‐wage counties, where relative minimum wage ratios reach as high as 0.82, well beyond the state‐based ratios in extant studies. Using data from the American Community Survey, the Quarterly Workforce Indicators, and the Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages, we implement event study and difference‐in‐differences methods, estimating average causal effects for all events in our sample and separately for areas with lower and higher impacts. We find positive wage effects, especially in high‐impact counties, but do not detect adverse effects on employment, weekly hours, or annual weeks worked. We do not find negative employment effects among women, Blacks, and/or Hispanics. In high‐impact counties, we find substantial declines in household and child poverty. These results inform policy debates about providing exemptions to a $15 federal minimum wage in low‐wage areas.
Wages, Minimum Wages, and Price Pass-Through: The Case of McDonald's Restaurants
Orley Ashenfelter & Štěpán Jurajda
Princeton Working Paper, January 2021
Abstract:
We use highly consistent national-coverage price and wage data to provide evidence on wage increases, labor-saving technology introduction, and price pass-through by a large low-wage employer facing minimum wage hikes. Based on 2016-2020 hourly wage rates of McDonald’s Basic Crew and prices of the Big Mac sandwich collected simultaneously from almost all US McDonald’s restaurants, we find that in about 25% of instances of minimum wage increases, restaurants display a tendency to keep constant their wage ‘premium’ above the increasing minimum wage. Higher minimum wages are not associated with faster adoption of touch-screen ordering, and there is near-full price pass-through of minimum wages, with little heterogeneity related to how binding minimum wage increases are for restaurants. Minimum wage hikes lead to increases in real wages (expressed in Big Macs an hour of Basic Crew work can buy) that are one fifth lower than the corresponding increases in nominal wages.
AI and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies
Daron Acemoglu et al.
NBER Working Paper, January 2021
Abstract:
We study the impact of AI on labor markets, using establishment level data on vacancies with detailed occupational information comprising the near-universe of online vacancies in the US from 2010 onwards. We classify establishments as “AI exposed” when their workers engage in tasks that are compatible with current AI capabilities. We document rapid growth in AI related vacancies over 2010-2018 that is not limited to the Professional and Business Services and Information Technology sectors and is significantly greater in AI-exposed establishments. AI-exposed establishments are differentially eliminating vacancy postings that list a range of previously-posted skills while simultaneously posting skill requirements that were not previously listed. Establishment-level estimates suggest that AI-exposed establishments are reducing hiring in non-AI positions even as they expand AI hiring. However, we find no discernible impact of AI exposure on employment or wages at the occupation or industry level, implying that AI is currently substituting for humans in a subset of tasks but it is not yet having detectable aggregate labor market consequences.
The Behavioral Effects of (Unenforceable) Contracts
Evan Starr, J.J. Prescott & Norman Bishara
Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do contracts influence behavior independent of the law governing their enforceability? We explore this question in the context of employment noncompetes using nationally representative data for 11,500 labor force participants. We show that noncompetes are associated with reductions in employee mobility and changes in the direction of that mobility (i.e., toward noncompetitors) in both states that do and do not enforce noncompetes. Decomposing mobility into job offer generation and acceptance, we detect no evidence of differences in job search, recruitment, or offer activity associated with noncompetes. Rather, we find that employees with noncompetes — even in states that do not enforce them — frequently point to their noncompete as an important reason for declining offers from competitors. Our data further show that these employees’ beliefs about the likelihood of a lawsuit or legal enforcement are important predictors of their citing a noncompete as a factor in their decision to decline competitor offers.
Unemployment Insurance Taxes and Labor Demand: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Administrative Data
Andrew Johnston
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, February 2021, Pages 266-293
Abstract:
To finance unemployment insurance, states raise payroll tax rates on employers who engage in layoffs. Tax rates are, therefore, highest for firms after downturns, potentially hampering labor-market recovery. Using full-population, administrative records from Florida, I estimate the effect of these tax increases on firm behavior leveraging a regression kink design in the tax schedule. Tax hikes reduce hiring and employment substantially, with no effect on layoffs or wages. The results imply unanticipated costs of the financing regime which reduce the optimal benefit by a quarter and account for 12 percent of the unemployment in the wake of the Great Recession.
Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages: The Role of Spillover Effects
Nicole Fortin, Thomas Lemieux & Neil Lloyd
NBER Working Paper, January 2021
Abstract:
This paper examines the role of spillover effects of minimum wages and threat effects of unionization in changes in wage inequality in the United States between 1979 and 2017. A distribution regression framework is introduced to estimate both types of spillover effects. Threat effects double the contribution of de-unionization to the increase in male wage inequality. Spillover effects magnify the explanatory power of declining minimum wages to two-thirds of the increase in inequality at the bottom end of the female wage distribution.
Skill Overshooting in Job Training With the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program
Justin Barnette & Jooyoun Park
Economic Development Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
The authors investigate the training choices made by workers entering the Trade Adjustment Assistance program and their postexit outcomes. This is important as more workers enter these types of programs due to technological change and globalization. Their study shows that workers that choose a training occupation beyond their skill level (skill overshooting) achieve higher earnings ($615 annually) and wage replacement rates (2.0 percentage points) at the cost of lower reemployment rates (−1.9 percentage points) immediately following program exit. An investigation of subsamples shows that skill overshooting is especially beneficial to females and those living in rural areas with earnings gains of $1,443 and $1,080, respectively, without hurting their chances of reemployment.
Home Equity and Labor Income: The Role of Constrained Mobility
Radhakrishnan Gopalan et al.
Review of Financial Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using detailed data for U.S. homeowners, we document a negative, nonlinear relation between the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of homeowners' primary residence and their labor income. Consistent with high LTV individuals experiencing constrained mobility, we find stronger effects among subprime, liquidity-constrained individuals and those living in regions with limited alternative local employment opportunities and strict noncompete law enforcement. Though high LTV individuals are less likely to move across MSAs, they are more likely to change jobs without changing their residence. We find no effects among similar neighboring renters employed at the same firm and with a similar job tenure.
Heterogeneous Effects of State Enterprise Zone Programs in the Shorter Run and Longer Run
David Neumark & Timothy Young
Economic Development Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
The authors take up two questions that have not been explored in research on enterprise zones. First, does a considerably longer-run perspective on the effects of state enterprise zones lead to different answers? And second, are there heterogeneous effects of enterprise zones that depend on the set of incentives these programs offer, which can vary widely? The results indicate that whether state enterprise zone programs were observed through a longer-term lens, or through the lens of program heterogeneity, the authors generally did not find any consistent indication of beneficial effects of state enterprise zone programs; if anything, the longer-run effects are negative. The lack of positive effects is consistent with most of the prior evidence that focuses on effects that are short term and homogeneous.