In the Real World
Ideology, Incidence and the Political Economy of Fuel Taxes: Evidence from the California 2018 Proposition 6
Lucas Epstein & Erich Muehlegger
NBER Working Paper, April 2024
Abstract:
In 2018, California voters rejected Proposition 6, a ballot initiative that sought to repeal state gasoline taxes and vehicle fees enacted as part of the 2017 Road Repair and Accountability Act. We study the relationship between support for the proposition, political ideology and the economic burdens imposed by the Act. For every hundred dollars of annual per-household imposed costs, we estimate that support for the proposition rose by 3 - 9 percentage points. Notably, we find that the relationship between voting and the economic burden of the policy is seven times stronger in the most conservative tracts relative to the most liberal tracts. Since conservative areas in California and elsewhere tend to bear a higher burden from transportation and energy taxes than liberal areas, heterogeneity in the response to economic burdens has important implications for the popular support for environmental taxes and the ongoing policy debate about how to finance future road infrastructure.
Genetic gains underpinning a little-known strawberry Green Revolution
Mitchell Feldmann et al.
Nature Communications, March 2024
Abstract:
The annual production of strawberry has increased by one million tonnes in the US and 8.4 million tonnes worldwide since 1960. Here we show that the US expansion was driven by genetic gains from Green Revolution breeding and production advances that increased yields by 2,755%. Using a California population with a century-long breeding history and phenotypes of hybrids observed in coastal California environments, we estimate that breeding has increased fruit yields by 2,974-6,636%, counts by 1,454-3,940%, weights by 228-504%, and firmness by 239-769%. Using genomic prediction approaches, we pinpoint the origin of the Green Revolution to the early 1950s and uncover significant increases in additive genetic variation caused by transgressive segregation and phenotypic diversification. Lastly, we show that the most consequential Green Revolution breeding breakthrough was the introduction of photoperiod-insensitive, PERPETUAL FLOWERING hybrids in the 1970s that doubled yields and drove the dramatic expansion of strawberry production in California.
Efficiency neglect: Why people are pessimistic about the effects of increasing population
Jason Dana, George Newman & Guy Voichek
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, May 2024, Pages 1213-1225
Abstract:
In six studies, we find evidence of efficiency neglect: when thinking about the effects of population growth, people intuitively focus on increased demand while neglecting the changes in production efficiency that occur alongside, and often in response to, increased demand. In other words, people tend to think of others solely as consumers, rather than as consumers as well as producers. Efficiency neglect leads to beliefs that the real costs of some consumer goods are rising when they are actually decreasing and may contribute to antiimmigration sentiments because of the fear that increasing local population creates competition for fixed resources. We demonstrate that economic pessimism and antiimmigration sentiments are reduced when people are prompted to consider their own beliefs about increased productivity over time, but are unchanged when they consider their beliefs about increases in demand. Together, these findings shed light on people’s lay economic theories and suggest promising interventions.
The economic commitment of climate change
Maximilian Kotz, Anders Levermann & Leonie Wenz
Nature, 18 April 2024, Pages 551-557
Abstract:
Global projections of macroeconomic climate-change damages typically consider impacts from average annual and national temperatures over long time horizons. Here we use recent empirical findings from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years to project sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation, including daily variability and extremes. Using an empirical approach that provides a robust lower bound on the persistence of impacts on economic growth, we find that the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices (relative to a baseline without climate impacts, likely range of 11–29% accounting for physical climate and empirical uncertainty). These damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit global warming to 2°C by sixfold over this near-term time frame and thereafter diverge strongly dependent on emission choices. Committed damages arise predominantly through changes in average temperature, but accounting for further climatic components raises estimates by approximately 50% and leads to stronger regional heterogeneity. Committed losses are projected for all regions except those at very high latitudes, at which reductions in temperature variability bring benefits. The largest losses are committed at lower latitudes in regions with lower cumulative historical emissions and lower present-day income.
On the Feasibility, Costs, and Benefits of an Immediate Phasedown of Coal for U.S. Electricity Generation
Stephen Holland et al.
NBER Working Paper, March 2024
Abstract:
The phasedown of coal for electricity generation is considered vital to meeting global climate targets. Many countries have pledged to stop using coal, with some as early as 2030. While the United States has no target currently in place, several states do. In this paper, we examine the feasibility of phasing down U.S. coal-generated electricity given the existing fleet of power plants. In particular, we take consumption as given and evaluate how prioritizing natural gas generation over that of coal would change emissions and operating costs. To do this, we develop a replacement algorithm based on transmission regions and marginal cost comparisons. Using our preferred scenarios, we find that between 66 and 94 percent of coal generation could be replaced immediately, reducing electricity sector carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions between 18 and 29 percent – equivalent to between 5 and 8 percent of total U.S. energy related emissions. The cost range is between $49 and $92 per ton of CO₂, where benefit-cost ratios are favorable in some scenarios considering local pollutant co-benefits alone. Despite the command-and-control nature of prioritizing natural gas generation, we find it relatively cost effective even in comparison to a Pigouvian tax. We examine sensitivity of the results to transmission regions, replacement cost conditions, natural gas pipeline capacity, and alternative fuel prices.
Estimated Childhood Lead Exposure From Drinking Water in Chicago
Benjamin Huynh, Elizabeth Chin & Mathew Kiang
JAMA Pediatrics, forthcoming
Design, Setting, and Participants: For this cross-sectional study, a retrospective assessment was performed of lead exposure based on household tests collected from January 2016 to September 2023. Tests were obtained from households in Chicago that registered for a free self-administered testing service for lead exposure. Machine learning and microsimulation were used to estimate citywide childhood lead exposure.
Results: A total of 38 385 household lead tests were collected. An estimated 68% (95% uncertainty interval, 66%-69%) of children younger than 6 years were exposed to lead-contaminated water, corresponding to 129 000 children (95% uncertainty interval, 128 000-131 000 children). Ten-percentage-point increases in block-level Black and Hispanic populations were associated with 3% (95% CI, 2%-3%) and 6% (95% CI, 5%-7%) decreases in odds of being tested for lead and 4% (95% CI, 3%-6%) and 11% (95% CI, 10%-13%) increases in having lead-contaminated drinking water, respectively.
Residential exposure associations with ALS risk, survival, and phenotype: A Michigan-based case-control study
Stephen Goutman et al.
Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Degeneration, forthcoming
Methods: ALS and control participants recruited from University of Michigan completed a survey that ascertained exposure risks in the residential setting. ALS risk was assessed using logistic regression models followed by latent profile analysis to consider exposure profiles. A case-only analysis considered the contribution of the residential exposure variables via a Cox proportional hazards model for survival outcomes and multinomial logistic regression for onset segment, a polytomous outcome.
Results: This study included 367 ALS and 255 control participants. Twelve residential variables were associated with ALS risk after correcting for multiple comparison testing, with storage in an attached garage of chemical products including gasoline or kerosene (odds ratio (OR) = 1.14, p-adjusted < 0.001), gasoline-powered equipment (OR = 1.16, p-adjusted < 0.001), and lawn care products (OR = 1.15, p-adjusted < 0.001) representing the top three risk factors sorted by p-adjusted. Latent profile analysis indicated that storage of these chemical products in both attached and detached garages increased ALS risk. Although residential variables were not associated with poorer ALS survival following multiple testing corrections, storing pesticides, lawn care products, and woodworking supplies in the home were associated with shorter ALS survival using nominal p values. No exposures were associated with ALS onset segment.
Temperature, Mental Health, and Individual Crises: Evidence from Crisis Text Line
Sparshi Srivastava & Jamie Mullins
American Journal of Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper examines the short-term effects of temperature on mental health using variation in local temperatures and real-time data on individual mental health crisis conversations collected by the Crisis Text Line, a national text-message-based crisis hotline. We find that daily average temperatures beyond 30°C (86°F) lead to an 8 percent increase in the volume of crisis conversations relative to temperatures between18 and 21°C (64.4 to 69.8°F). This rise is observed across a range of crisis topics, including depression, anxiety, and suicide. We also find that the magnitude of the association with higher temperatures increases with the severity of the crisis event. Because Crisis Text Line users are predominantly young, these results offer important insights into the effects of temperature on the mental health of younger populations.
Climate Regulation and Emissions Abatement: Theory and Evidence from Firms’ Disclosures
Tarun Ramadorai & Federica Zeni
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
We measure firms’ beliefs about climate regulation, plans for future abatement, and current emissions mitigation from responses to the Carbon Disclosure Project. These measures vary strikingly around the Paris announcement. A dynamic model of a representative firm facing a future carbon levy, trading off abatement and capital growth, and facing convex adjustment costs cannot fit the data. A two-firm model with crossfirm reputational externalities, heterogeneous beliefs over climate regulation, and leader-follower interactions does. Out of sample, the model predicts firms’ reactions when the United States exits the Paris agreement. Firms’ beliefs about climate regulation strongly affect abatement, and crossfirm interactions amplify regulatory impacts.