Danger zone
How Suspect Race Affects Police Use of Force in an Interaction Over Time
Kimberly Barsamian Kahn et al.
Law and Human Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although studies often find racial disparities in policing outcomes, less is known about how suspect race biases police interactions as they unfold. This study examines what is differentially occurring during police-suspect interactions for White, Black, and Latino suspects across time. It is hypothesized that racial bias may be more evident earlier in interactions, when less information about the situation is available. One hundred thirty-nine (62 White, 42 Black, and 35 Latino) use-of-force case files and associated written narratives from a medium to large size urban police department in the United States were analyzed. Trained coders broke down the interaction narratives into discrete “sequences,” or dyadic action-reaction steps involving a suspect action (level of resistance) and an officer response (level of force). A linear mixed-effects model was run on amount of police use of force by suspect race and time, with suspect resistance and suspect actions toward third-party/self as controls. Results demonstrated that Black and Latino suspects receive more force in the beginning stages of the interaction, whereas Whites escalated in level of force faster after initial levels. By breaking down police-suspect interactions into discrete sequences, the current study reveals a better understanding of when bias originates in police use of force and informs how to focus policing interventions.
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Police Violence and Citizen Crime Reporting in the Black Community
Matthew Desmond, Andrew Papachristos & David Kirk
American Sociological Review, October 2016, Pages 857-876
Abstract:
High-profile cases of police violence — disproportionately experienced by black men — may present a serious threat to public safety if they lower citizen crime reporting. Using an interrupted time series design, this study analyzes how one of Milwaukee’s most publicized cases of police violence against an unarmed black man, the beating of Frank Jude, affected police-related 911 calls. Controlling for crime, prior call patterns, and several neighborhood characteristics, we find that residents of Milwaukee’s neighborhoods, especially residents of black neighborhoods, were far less likely to report crime after Jude’s beating was broadcast. The effect lasted for over a year and resulted in a total net loss of approximately 22,200 calls for service. Other local and national cases of police violence against unarmed black men also had a significant impact on citizen crime reporting in Milwaukee. Police misconduct can powerfully suppress one of the most basic forms of civic engagement: calling 911 for matters of personal and public safety.
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Edward Maguire, Justin Nix & Bradley Campbell
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Police agencies in the U.S. are currently facing a major legitimacy crisis resulting from a spate of high-profile use of force incidents, many involving minority citizens. Recent headlines emphasize that there is now a “war on cops” and that police officers are facing increasing levels of hostility and violence fueled by a growing anti-police sentiment. In the aftermath of events in Ferguson, Missouri in August 2014, some commentators claim that the number of police officers feloniously assaulted and killed in the line of duty has increased sharply. Using time series analysis of data from the Officer Down Memorial Page, we test whether events in Ferguson were associated with an increase in the number of police officers murdered in the line of duty. Our results provide no evidence for a “Ferguson Effect” on the number of U.S. police officers murdered in the line of duty as of March 2016.
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Kelsie Chesnut et al.
Injury Prevention, forthcoming
Setting: Los Angeles County Jail (LACJ) system (four facilities).
Methods: Random sampling from a screened pool of eligible participants was used to conduct qualitative semistructured interviews with 140 incarcerated gun offenders in one of four (LACJ) facilities. Researchers collected data on firearm acquisition, experiences related to gun violence, and other topics, using a validated survey instrument. Grounded theory guided the collection and analysis of data.
Results: Respondents reported possession of 77 specific guns (79.2% handguns) collectively. Social networks facilitate access to illegal guns; the majority of interviewees acquired their illegal guns through a social connection (85.7%) versus an outside broker/unregulated retailer (8.5%). Most guns were obtained through illegal purchase (n=51) or gift (n=15). A quarter of gun purchasers report engaging in a passive transaction, or one initiated by another party. Passive gun buyers were motivated by concerns for personal safety and/or economic opportunity.
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Deterring Spammers: Impact Assessment of the CAN SPAM Act on Email Spam Rates
Alex Kigerl
Criminal Justice Policy Review, December 2016, Pages 791-811
Abstract:
This study sought to evaluate the deterrent impact the Controlling the Assault of Non-Solicited Pornography and Marketing (CAN SPAM) Act has had on email spam rates over time. A sample of 5,490,905 spam emails was collected and aggregated into a monthly time series. Thirteen measures of CAN SPAM Act enforcement were coded from news articles and included in a time-series regression. The results suggest a possible deterrent effect of prosecutions, convictions, and lengthy jail sentences for spammers, but an emboldening effect of short jail sentences. The penalties under the CAN SPAM Act focus on fines more than prison terms. The results find no deterrent effect for fines, as spammers tend to earn a large income from sending spam. The Act might be revised to include prison sentences, especially longer ones to avoid the emboldening effect found. A deterrent impact was found for prosecutions, even though the CAN SPAM Act is under-enforced. Expanding enforcement might also be advisable.
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Devolution, not decarceration: The limits of juvenile justice reform in Texas
Sarah Cate
Punishment & Society, December 2016, Pages 578-609
Abstract:
Across the USA, a number of states have been reducing the number of juveniles sent to state-run corrections institutions. Findings from a case study on juvenile justice in Texas indicate that the effort to reduce the number of juveniles sent to large state institutions and to invest in “community-based corrections” has entrenched rather than challenged the role of the justice system in the lives of thousands of juveniles. Texas has cut the number of juveniles sent to state-run facilities, but has bolstered and expanded county probation and county detention, which is where the vast majority of juveniles have always been handled. Youth who continue to be sent to state-run facilities or who are housed in county-run institutions experience a high level of violence and are routinely subjected to solitary confinement. The popularity of deinstitutionalizing juveniles from state-run corrections institutions and increasing programming and control of offenders at the local level are animating the landscape of criminal justice policy across the country. The Texas case suggests that this narrow approach further consolidates the extensive role of the justice system in U.S. society.
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Examining Specific Deterrence Effects on DWI Among Serious Offenders
Jeff Bouffard, Nicole Niebuhr & Lyn Exum
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
Deterrence research supports the idea that punishment curbs offending; however, results for the specific deterrent effects of drunk driving are more nuanced. This research is often limited in its use of non-offender samples, its failure to examine links between past sanctions and subsequent risk perceptions, and in its use of aggregate-level data, thereby precluding any exploration of individuals’ perceived sanction risks. The current study examines the relationship between 824 felony inmates’ experiences with formal legal sanctions for drunk driving and their risk perceptions for driving drunk as well as their hypothetical intentions to drive drunk. Results generally fail to support deterrence theory’s propositions, and instead uncover some positive punishment effects (higher drunk driving intentions among those sanctioned previously) net of important theoretical controls. Implications for subsequent research and policy making are presented.
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Arrest and the Amplification of Deviance: Does Gang Membership Moderate the Relationship?
Stephanie Wiley, Dena Carson & Finn-Aage Esbensen
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although research has found that gang suppression efforts are largely ineffective, these policies have been responsible for the arrests of many gang youth. Prior research indicates that arrest is associated with deleterious consequences, but we know less about how arrest uniquely affects gang members. Using longitudinal data from a school-based sample, this study explores the effects of arrest for both gang and nongang youth. Propensity score matching and matched outcome analyses allow us to determine whether gang membership moderates the effect of arrest on later deviant outcomes. Our results indicate that the consequences of arrest are inconsistent with the goals of suppression tactics, with gang members reporting little to no change in deviant attitudes and peers and modest increases in delinquency. Meanwhile, nongang youth experience a range of consequences associated with arrest, including increased odds of gang-joining.
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Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism
Cody Tuttle
University of Maryland Working Paper, September 2016
Abstract:
I estimate the effect of access to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits (formerly known as Food Stamps) on the probability that a criminal returns to prison after being released. In 1996, the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act (PRWORA) was signed into law drastically changing America's safety net programs. One little discussed piece of PRWORA is a provision which imposes a lifetime ban from SNAP on people who commit drug felonies. The Florida state legislature modified this ban so that it only applies to drug traffickers who commit their offense on or after August 23, 1996. Using inmate-level data from Florida, I exploit this sharp cutoff date, and find that the SNAP ban increases recidivism among released drug traffickers. The increase is primarily driven by crimes that are financially motivated suggesting that the cut in SNAP benefits causes ex-convicts to increase their illegal labor supply. This result speaks to an ongoing policy discussion about these bans and contributes to the empirical literature on the myriad benefits of safety net programs.
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Losing by Less? Import Competition, Unemployment Insurance Generosity, and Crime
Brian Beach & John Lopresti
College of William and Mary Working Paper, August 2016
Abstract:
We explore the extent to which increased Chinese import competition affects crime in US labor markets and whether access to more generous unemployment insurance attenuates this relationship. An interquartile increase in import competition increases crime by approximately 3 percent in the average labor market; however, a one standard deviation increase in unemployment insurance generosity mitigates approximately two-thirds of the increase. A simple cost-benefit analysis indicates that 2-6.5 percent of the costs of increasing unemployment insurance generosity are recovered by society in the form of lower crime rates. This highlights a new and important positive externality of unemployment insurance.
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Criminal Background and Job Performance
Dylan Minor, Nicola Persico & Deborah Weiss
Northwestern University Working Paper, October 2016
Abstract:
Job applicants with criminal records are much less likely than others to obtain legitimate employment, a problem that recent legislation, including Ban the Box, has attempted to address. The success of any remedial strategy depends on why hiring firms impose a hiring penalty and whether their concerns are founded on an accurate view of how ex-offenders behave on the job if hired. Little empirical evidence now exists to answer these questions. This paper attempts to fill this gap by examining firm-level hiring practices and worker-level performance outcomes. Our data indicate that the typical employee with a criminal record has a psychological profile different from other employees, with fewer characteristics that are associated with good job performance outcomes. Despite these differences, individuals with criminal records have an involuntary separation rate that is no higher than that of other employees and a voluntary separation rate that is much lower. Employees with a criminal record do have a slightly higher overall rate of discharge for misconduct than do employees without a record, although we find increased misconduct only for sales positions. We also find that firms that do not use information about criminal backgrounds seem to compensate by placing more weight on qualifications that are correlated with a criminal record, such as low educational attainment.
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Urban Blight Remediation as a Cost-Beneficial Solution to Firearm Violence
Charles Branas et al.
American Journal of Public Health, forthcoming
Methods: We performed quasi-experimental analyses of the impacts and economic returns on investment of urban blight remediation programs involving 5112 abandoned buildings and vacant lots on the occurrence of firearm and nonfirearm violence in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from 1999 to 2013. We adjusted before–after percent changes and returns on investment in treated versus control groups for sociodemographic factors.
Results: Abandoned building remediation significantly reduced firearm violence −39% (95% confidence interval [CI] = −28%, −50%; P < .05) as did vacant lot remediation (−4.6%; 95% CI = −4.2%, −5.0%; P < .001). Neither program significantly affected nonfirearm violence. Respectively, taxpayer and societal returns on investment for the prevention of firearm violence were $5 and $79 for every dollar spent on abandoned building remediation and $26 and $333 for every dollar spent on vacant lot remediation.
Conclusions: Abandoned buildings and vacant lots are blighted structures seen daily by urban residents that may create physical opportunities for violence by sheltering illegal activity and illegal firearms. Urban blight remediation programs can be cost-beneficial strategies that significantly and sustainably reduce firearm violence.
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The effect of institutional educational programming on prisoner misconduct
Kyleigh Clark & Jason Rydberg
Criminal Justice Studies, Fall 2016, Pages 325-344
Abstract:
Relative to studies of recidivism, past research on prison educational programming has largely neglected to examine the relationship, if any, between participation in these programs and institutional misconduct. Using data from the National Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities (N = 6957), we assess the relationship between participation in prison educational programming and instances of prisoner misconduct, considering the types and completion of such programs. Utilizing a recently developed propensity score weighting procedure to adjust for selection into programming, our findings indicate that, contrary to research on educational participation and recidivism, those involved in prison educational programming are more likely to commit misconduct infractions than those who are not involved in these programs. Practical implications and directions for future research are explored.
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Maaike Helmus & Marguerite Ternes
Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, forthcoming
Abstract:
Temporary absences (TAs) from prison are intended to assist gradual reintegration. TAs can be either escorted (ETA) or unescorted (UTA). This exploratory study examined who received TAs, ETAs, and UTAs in Canadian federal prisons and the impact of these absences on community outcomes. The sample included 27,098 offenders released to the community between April 1, 2005 and March 31, 2011. Propensity scores for receiving TAs were used to control for group differences in outcome analyses. Participation rates were 22% for ETAs and 4% for UTAs. The strongest predictor was sentence length: Offenders with longer prison sentences were more likely to receive TAs. Other key predictors included moderate risk, higher motivation level, and fewer problems with institutional adjustment and on prior periods of community supervision. Participation was related to significantly lower levels of unemployment, returns to custody for any reason, and returns to custody for a new offense. Furthermore, a significant dosage effect was found for all TAs and ETAs: The more TAs the offender received, the less likely they were to return to custody. Absences from prison play an important role in gradual reintegration to the community, and the more the offenders participate in, the better the outcomes.
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Macro Implementation: Testing the Causal Paths from U.S. Macro Policy to Federal Incarceration
Matthew Hall
American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Policy implementation is usually studied at the micro level by testing the short-term effects of a specific policy on the behavior of government actors and policy outcomes. This study adopts an alternative approach by examining macro implementation — the cumulative effect of aggregate public policies over time. I employ a variety of methodological techniques to test the influence of macro criminal justice policy on new admissions to federal prison via three mediators: case filings by federal prosecutors, conviction rates in federal district courts, and plea bargaining behavior. I find that cumulative Supreme Court rulings influence the incarceration rate by altering conviction rates in district courts; however, I find only mixed evidence of congressional and presidential influence. The results suggest that U.S. macro policy influences bureaucratic outputs by altering the behavior of subordinate policy implementers; however, the Supreme Court may enjoy an advantage in shaping criminal justice policy.
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The Effect of Police Slowdowns on Crime
Andrea Cann Chandrasekher
American Law and Economics Review, Fall 2016, Pages 385-437
Abstract:
Though police strikes have been well studied, there are almost no articles written on the public safety consequences of police work slowdowns — labor actions where police officers reduce their ticket-writing and/or arrest productivity for a temporary period. This article fills the current void by presenting evidence on the 1997 New York City Police Department work slowdown, to my knowledge the longest documented police slowdown in U.S. history. Drawing on several, originally collected data sources from the NYPD and other city agencies, the article assesses the impact of the slowdown on ticket enforcement, arrest enforcement, and crime. The findings indicate that, at least in the context of contract-motivated slowdowns where the union may be motivated to garner public support for pay increases, the effects on public safety may be limited. Specifically, in the case of the 1997 slowdown, ticket-writing for all categories of tickets fell dramatically but arrest enforcement for all types of serious crime stayed the same or increased. Accordingly, the crime effects were mostly concentrated in the area of minor criminal disorder (misdemeanors and violations). Only two categories of serious crime (larcenies and assaults) were affected and those crime increases were minimal.
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Highway Robbery: Testing the Impact of Interstate Highways on Robbery
James McCutcheon et al.
Justice Quarterly, Fall 2016, Pages 1292-1310
Abstract:
Research has shown that the occurrence of crime is based on multiple factors including a variety of geographical characteristics. Previous researchers have suggested that the environmental feature of the interstate system has an influence on crime. For this study, we test for a relationship between interstate presence and robbery at the county-level in Georgia. Additionally, we test whether or not urban/rural differences affect this relationship. Findings are consistent with previous research showing that the number of interstate exits in a county significantly increases crime; in this case the robbery rate.
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Barak Ariel et al.
Criminal Justice and Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
The use of body-worn cameras (BWCs) by the police is rising. One proposed effect of BWCs is reducing complaints against police, which assumes that BWCs reduce officer noncompliance with procedures, improve suspects’ demeanor, or both, leading to fewer complaints. We report results from a global, multisite randomized controlled trial on whether BWC use reduces citizens’ complaints. Seven discrete tests (N = 1,847 officers), with police shifts as the unit of analysis (N = 4,264), were randomly assigned into treatment and control conditions. Using a prospective meta-analytic approach, we found a 93% before–after reduction in complaint incidence (Z = −3.234; p < .001), but no significant differences between trial arms in the studies (d = .053, SE = .11; 95% confidence interval [CI] = [−.163, .269]), and little between-site variation (Q = 4.905; p = .428). We discuss these results in terms of an “observer effect” that influences both officers’ and citizens’ behavior and assess what we interpret as treatment diffusion between experimental and control conditions within the framework of “contagious accountability.”
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Jangho Yoon & Jeff Luck
Social Science & Medicine, December 2016, Pages 133–142
Abstract:
This study examines the extent to which increased public mental health expenditures lead to a reduction in jail populations and computes the associated intersystem return on investment (ROI). We analyze unique panel data on 44 U.S. states and D.C. for years 2001–2009. To isolate the intersystem spillover effect, we exploit variations across states and over time within states in per capita public mental health expenditures and average daily jail inmates. Regression models control for a comprehensive set of determinants of jail incarcerations as well as unobserved determinants specific to state and year. Findings show a positive spillover benefit of increased public mental health spending on the jail system: a 10% increase in per capita public inpatient mental health expenditure on average leads to a 1.5% reduction in jail inmates. We also find that the positive intersystem externality of increased public inpatient mental health expenditure is greater when the level of community mental health spending is lower. Similarly, the intersystem spillover effect of community mental health expenditure is larger when inpatient mental health spending is lower. We compute that overall an extra dollar in public inpatient mental health expenditure by a state would yield an intersystem ROI of a quarter dollar for the jail system. There is significant cross-state variation in the intersystem ROI in both public inpatient and community mental health expenditures, and the ROI overall is greater for inpatient mental health spending than for community mental health spending.
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Deterring Rearrests for Drinking and Driving
Frank Sloan et al.
Southern Economic Journal, October 2016, Pages 416–436
Abstract:
This study assesses why some individuals are rearrested for driving while intoxicated (DWI). Using longitudinal data from North Carolina containing information on arrests and arrest outcomes, we test hypotheses that individuals prosecuted and convicted of DWI are less likely to be rearrested for DWI. We allow for possible endogeneity of prosecution and conviction outcomes by using instrumental variables for the prosecutor's prosecution rate and the judge's conviction rate. With a three-year follow-up, the probability of DWI rearrest was reduced by 6.6% if the person was prosecuted for DWI and, for those prosecuted, by 24.5% if convicted on this charge. Prosecution and conviction for DWI deters rearrest for DWI.
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Alex Widdowson, Sonja Siennick & Carter Hay
Criminology, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study draws on labeling theory and education research on the steps to college enrollment to examine 1) whether and for how long arrest reduces the likelihood that high-school graduates will enroll in postsecondary education and 2) whether any observed relationships are mediated by key steps in the college enrollment process. With 17 years of data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) and propensity score matching, we derived matched samples of arrested and nonarrested but equivalent youth (N = 1,761) and conducted logistic regression and survival analyses among the matched samples to examine the short- and long-term postsecondary consequences of arrest. The results revealed that arrest reduced the odds of 4-year college enrollment directly after high school, as well as that high-school grade point average and advanced coursework accounted for 58 percent of this relationship. The results also revealed that arrest had an enduring impact on 4-year college attendance that extended into and beyond emerging adulthood. Two-year college prospects were largely unaffected by arrest. These findings imply that being arrested during high school represents a negative turning point in youths’ educational trajectory that is, in part, a result of having a less competitive college application. Implications are discussed.
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A Statewide Study of Gang Membership in California Secondary Schools
Joey Nuñez Estrada et al.
Youth & Society, September 2016, Pages 720-736
Abstract:
To date, there is a paucity of empirical evidence that examines gang membership in schools. Using statewide data of 7th-, 9th-, and 11th-grade students from California, this study focuses on the prevalence of gang membership by county, region, ethnicity, and grade level. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed with gang membership as the outcome of interest. Approximately 8.4% of the student sample reported that they consider themselves to be a member of a gang. Regional-level rates of gang membership across six geographical areas are all in a relatively narrow range and gang members are fairly evenly distributed across California schools. The findings imply that schools are a good place to focus on gang prevention and intervention, and educators need to be aware of the possible gang activity in their schools to provide the appropriate resources, programs, and support for these students.
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Incarceration and Household Asset Ownership
Kristin Turney & Daniel Schneider
Demography, forthcoming
Abstract:
A considerable literature documents the deleterious economic consequences of incarceration. However, little is known about the consequences of incarceration for household assets — a distinct indicator of economic well-being that may be especially valuable to the survival of low-income families — or about the spillover economic consequences of incarceration for families. In this article, we use longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study to examine how incarceration is associated with asset ownership among formerly incarcerated men and their romantic partners. Results, which pay careful attention to the social forces that select individuals into incarceration, show that incarceration is negatively associated with ownership of a bank account, vehicle, and home among men and that these consequences for asset ownership extend to the romantic partners of these men. These associations are concentrated among men who previously held assets. Results also show that post-incarceration changes in romantic relationships are an important pathway by which even short-term incarceration depletes assets.
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Justin Nix et al.
Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
Focusing on Mexican cartels and affiliated drug trafficking organizations, this article examines how self-proclaimed cartel members use social media to further the criminal activities of their organizations. Employing an open-source, intelligence-driven methodology, the authors identified, followed, and mapped the connections between and among 75 alleged cartel members over a period of 4 months. Results indicated that cartel members actively use Facebook to plan, organize, and communicate in real-time. These findings provide tentative validation to the utility of using open-source social media platforms to study the social structure and operations of Mexican drug cartels. Implications for law enforcement, homeland security, and the intelligence enterprise are discussed.
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Christopher Campbell
Criminal Justice Policy Review, November 2016, Pages 643-667
Abstract:
A long-held assumption in corrections is that parole technical violations (TVs) serve as a proxy of an offender’s potential of committing a new crime. Considering this notion has yet to be empirically tested coupled with recent research indicating a patterned difference between violators and recidivists, a test of this foundational assumption of community corrections is warranted. The current study aims to test this assumption using male and female offender samples from Washington State. Receiver operating characteristic curves are used to test the predictive validity of a generic risk–needs scale designed for felony recidivism on TV outcomes. Results suggest that the male-specific scale performs significantly worse when predicting nonserious and serious violations among the male sample. A female-specific scale, however, showed no significant difference in predicting female violations. The findings provide evidence that violations are not necessarily a proxy of new crime, and therefore offer wide implications for community corrections policy.
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American crime drops: Investigating the breaks, dips and drops in temporal homicide
Karen Parker, Ashley Mancik & Richard Stansfield
Social Science Research, forthcoming
Objectives: While a great deal of attention has been given to the 1990s crime drop, less is known about the more recent decline in homicide rates that occurred in several large U.S. cities. This paper aims to explore whether these represent two distinct drops via statistical evidence of structural breaks in longitudinal homicide trends and explore potentially differing explanations for the two declines.
Methods: Using homicide data on a large sample of U.S. cities from 1990 to 2011, we test for structural breaks in temporal homicide rates. Combining census data and a time series approach, we also examine the role structural features, demographic shifts, and crime control strategies played in the changes in homicide rates over time.
Results: Statistical evidence demonstrates two structural breaks in homicide trends, with one trend reflecting the 1990s crime drop (1994–2002) and another trend capturing a second decline (2007–2011). Time series analysis confirms previous research findings about the contributions of structural conditions (e.g., disadvantage) and crime control strategies (e.g., police force size) to the crime drop of the 1990s, but these factors cannot account for the more recent drop with the exception of police presence.
Conclusions: Although both structural conditions and crime control strategies are critical to the longitudinal trends in homicide rates over the entire span from 1990 to 2011, different factors account for these two distinct temporal trends.