Voting for devils
Donald Trump, Populism, and the Age of Extremes: Comparing the Personality Traits and Campaigning Styles of Trump and Other Leaders Worldwide
Alessandro Nai, Ferran Martínez i Coma & Jürgen Maier
Presidential Studies Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
A common narrative portrays Donald Trump as impetuous and quick to anger, thin skinned, constantly lying, brazen, vulgar, and boasting a grandiose sense of self and his accomplishments. Little systematic evidence exists that this is the case, however. With a novel data set based on expert ratings, we (1) provide systematic empirical evidence about Trump’s personality profile, (2) contrast his profile with 21 other populist leaders and 82 mainstream candidates having competed in recent elections worldwide, and (3) discuss the implications of such an extreme profile in terms of campaigning style and the use of negative and emotional campaigns. Our results illustrate Trump’s off‐the‐charts personality and campaigning style and suggest that even when compared with other abrasive, narcissistic, and confrontational political figures, he stands out as an outlier among the outliers. We conclude by discussing the implications and potential outcomes of such an extreme personality profile for Trump’s policy style and achievements while in office.
The Political Legacy of Entertainment TV
Ruben Durante, Paolo Pinotti & Andrea Tesei
American Economic Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
We study the political impact of commercial television in Italy exploiting the staggered introduction of Berlusconi's private TV network, Mediaset, in the early 1980s. We find that individuals with early access to Mediaset all-entertainment content were more likely to vote for Berlusconi's party in 1994, when he first ran for office. The effect persists for five elections and is driven by heavy TV viewers, namely the very young and the elderly. Regarding possible mechanisms, we find that individuals exposed to entertainment TV as children were less cognitively sophisticated and civic-minded as adults, and ultimately more vulnerable to Berlusconi's populist rhetoric.
The More You Know: Voter Heuristics and the Information Search
Rachel Bernhard & Sean Freeder
Political Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Informed voting is costly: research shows that voters use heuristics such as party identification and retrospection to make choices that approximate enlightened decision-making. Most of this work, however, focuses on high-information races and ignores elections in which these cues are often unavailable (e.g. primary, local). In these cases, citizens are on their own to search for quality information and evaluate it efficiently. To assess how voters navigate this situation, we field three survey experiments asking respondents what information they want before voting. We evaluate respondents on their ability to both acquire and utilize information in a way that improves their chances of voting for quality candidates, and how this varies by the sophistication of respondents and the offices sought by candidates. We find strong evidence that voters use “deal-breakers” to quickly eliminate undesirable candidates; however, the politically unsophisticated rely on unverifiable, vague, and irrelevant search considerations. Moreover, less sophisticated voters also rely on more personalistic considerations. The findings suggest that voters’ search strategies may be ineffective at identifying the best candidates for office, especially at the local level.
Early Voting Laws, Voter Turnout, and Partisan Vote Composition: Evidence from Ohio
Ethan Kaplan & Haishan Yuan
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We estimate effects of early voting on voter turnout using a 2010 homogenization law from Ohio which forced some counties to expand and others to contract early voting. Using voter registration data, we compare individuals who live within the same 2 × 2 mile square block but in different counties. We find substantial positive impacts of early voting on turnout equal to 0.22 percentage points of additional turnout per additional early voting day. We also find greater impacts on women, Democrats, Independents and those of child-bearing and working age. We simulate impacts of national early day laws on recent election outcomes.
Effects of Photo ID Laws on Registration and Turnout: Evidence from Rhode Island
Francesco Maria Esposito, Diego Focanti & Justine Hastings
NBER Working Paper, January 2019
Abstract:
We study the effect of photo ID laws on voting using a difference-in-differences estimation approach around Rhode Island’s implementation of a photo ID law. We employ anonymized administrative data to measure the law’s impact by comparing voting behavior among those with drivers’ licenses versus those without, before versus after the law. Turnout, registration, and voting conditional on registration fell for those without licenses after the law passed. We do not find evidence that people proactively obtained licenses in anticipation of the law, nor do we find that they substituted towards mail ballots which do not require a photo ID.
Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-2016
Enrico Cantoni & Vincent Pons
NBER Working Paper, February 2019
Abstract:
U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote – an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.3-billion-observations panel, we find the laws have no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any group defined by race, gender, age, or party affiliation. These results hold through a large number of specifications and cannot be attributed to mobilization against the laws, measured by campaign contributions and self-reported political engagement. ID requirements have no effect on fraud either – actual or perceived. Overall, our results suggest that efforts to reform voter ID laws may not have much impact on elections.
The Historical Presidency: Fear and Loathing in Presidential Candidate Rhetoric, 1952–2016
Jesse Rhodes & Amber Vayo
Presidential Studies Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
In this article, we build on research on affective (emotion‐based) polarization in American politics by investigating whether and how it has manifested in campaigns for the presidency. Drawing on a new data set of more than 11,000 statements about opponents from presidential stump speeches over the 1952–2016 period, we use quantitative content analysis to examine trends in negativity, fearful content, and anger content in these statements. We also conduct case studies of the 1968, 1992, and 2016 elections to examine qualitative patterns in these statements. We find compelling evidence that negative, fearful, and angry content in candidate statements about their opponents has been increasing over time among presidential candidates. We also find indications that fearful and angry rhetoric toward opponents is becoming more directed toward opponents’ character flaws rather than their issue stances. Our research suggests that affective polarization in presidential campaigns is a long‐term, and likely durable, development.
Coattails, Raincoats, and Congressional Election Outcomes
Steven Rogers
PS: Political Science & Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
More than 60 years ago, Angus Campbell offered an explanation for why the president’s party regularly loses congressional seats in midterm elections. He argued that peripheral voters “surge” to the polls in presidential elections and support the president’s congressional co-partisans but “decline” to turn out in the midterm. In his turnout-based explanation for midterm loss, Campbell speculated that “bad weather or an epidemic may affect the vote” but largely dismissed weather’s utility to test his theory (Campbell 1960, 399). I revisit Campbell’s speculation and employ a new identification strategy to investigate the “surge and decline” account of midterm loss. I show that as the costs of voting increase — due to above-average rainfall on Election Day — the strength of the relationship between presidential and congressional voting weakens.
Increasing Voter Participation by Altering the Costs and Stakes of Voting
Kevin Henrickson & Erica Johnson
Social Science Quarterly, forthcoming
Objectives: While many states are increasing the costs of voting through voter identification laws, Washington State has enacted two policies that may increase voter participation. Specifically, as of 2012, the entire state uses a vote‐by‐mail system, reducing the cost of voting. In addition, Washington adopted a top‐two primary format in 2008, increasing the importance of primaries.
Methods: Using turnout data between 2000 and 2014, we examine the effect of vote‐by‐mail and the top‐two primary format on voter turnout.
Results: We find that both of these policies have had a positive impact on voter turnout in Washington State primaries, raising turnout to the point where Washington's primary turnout exceeds the general election turnout in other states.
Demonstrating the (in) effectiveness of electoral reforms
Kevin Fahey
Electoral Studies, December 2018, Pages 35-46
Abstract:
Have electoral reforms to reduce the incumbency advantage worked as intended? I articulate a theory wherein reforms may contribute to a weakening incumbency advantage, or may counterintuitively weaken challengers by changing party incentives. Combining causal inference techniques on a set of 70,000 U.S. state legislative elections, I estimate changes to the annual incumbency effect after the implementation of two popular reforms, term limits and staffing cuts. This test arbitrates between two competing expectations of how reforms should change the incumbency effect. My findings show that the reforms did not work as intended. The incumbency effect grew faster in term-limited states than in states without term limits, while staff cuts failed to slow the growth of the incumbency effect. I conclude that party incentives ought to be considered when citizens engage in future policy reforms regarding the incumbency advantage.
Political Awareness, Microtargeting of Voters, and Negative Electoral Campaigning
Burkhard Schipper & Hee Yeul Woo
Quarterly Journal of Political Science, January 2019, Pages 41-88
Abstract:
We study the informational effectiveness of electoral campaigns. Voters may not think about all political issues and have incomplete information with regard to political positions of candidates. Nevertheless, we show that if candidates are allowed to microtarget voters with messages then election outcomes are as if voters have full awareness of political issues and complete information about candidates' political positions. Political competition is paramount for overcoming voters' limited awareness of political issues but unnecessary for overcoming just uncertainty about candidates' political positions. Our optimistic results break down if microtargeting is not allowed or voters lack political reasoning abilities. In such cases, negative campaigning comes to rescue, at least in the majoritarian model.
Compulsory voting and TV news consumption
Raphael Bruce & Rafael Costa Lima
Journal of Development Economics, May 2019, Pages 165-179
Abstract:
Do people acquire more information when they are encouraged to participate in elections? This paper presents empirical evidence on the effects of compulsory voting laws on the consumption of TV news. In Brazil, literate citizens over the age of eighteen are subject to a number of legal penalties if they fail to turn out on election day. This allows us to identify the causal effect of being under a compulsory voting regime on information acquisition. We find that compulsory voting has a significant and substantial positive impact on the probability of an individual to watch Brazil's main TV newscast. Additionally, the effect is stronger for individuals with neutral evaluations of the incumbent president. Our regression discontinuity results are restricted to young voters who just turned eighteen and are robust to different polynomials and bandwidth lengths.
Land lotteries, long-term wealth, and political selection
Jason Poulos
Public Choice, January 2019, Pages 217–230
Abstract:
Does personal wealth cause individuals to select into public office? This study exploits the 1805 and 1807 Georgia land lotteries to investigate the hypothesis that wealth increases political power. Most eligible males participated in the lotteries and more than one-in-ten participants won a land prize worth over half of median property wealth. I find no evidence that lottery wealth increases the likelihood of officeholding or running for office, and argue that those null findings are informative because the estimates are not practically different from zero. The absence of a treatment effect implies that commonly observed cross-sectional correlations between personal wealth and officeholding are likely explained by selection effects.
“An Inherited Money Dude from Queens County”: How Unseen Candidate Characteristics Affect Voter Perceptions
Jared McDonald, David Karol & Lilliana Mason
Political Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
We examine the effect of biographical knowledge on voters’ assessments of leaders. Prior research has shown that voters infer traits from candidate characteristics such as race, gender and incumbency, which are visible to even poorly-informed voters. Given voters’ limited knowledge, we argue that less-visible attributes may be easily misperceived, possibly affecting overall assessments of candidates. Focusing on President Trump, we find via a national survey that many Americans are unaware that he was born into great wealth. This misperception increases support for Trump, mediated through beliefs that he is both empathetic and good at business. We supplement our observational analysis with an experiment treating respondents with information regarding the role Trump’s father played in his career. This information leads respondents to rate the president more negatively on both empathy and business ability. These findings suggest that correcting information about candidate characteristics can change the minds of even loyal partisans.