Using
Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving
Benjamin Hansen
NBER Working Paper, June 2014
Abstract:
Traditional economic models of criminal behavior have straightforward predictions: raising the expected cost of crime via apprehension probabilities or punishments decreases crime. I test the effect of harsher punishments on deterring driving under the influence (DUI). In this setting, punishments are determined by strict rules on Blood Alcohol Content (BAC) and previous offenses. Regression discontinuity derived estimates suggest that having a BAC above the DUI threshold reduces recidivism by up to 2 percentage points (17 percent). Likewise having a BAC over the aggravated DUI threshold reduces recidivism by an additional percentage point (9 percent). The results suggest that recent recommendations to lower the BAC limit to .05 would save relatively few lives, while increasing marginal punishments and sanctions monotonically along the BAC distribution would more effectively deter the drunk drivers most likely to be involved in fatal crashes.
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Nils Braakmann & Simon Jones
Social Science & Medicine, August 2014, Pages 29-37
Abstract:
This paper investigates the link between cannabis depenalisation and crime using individual-level panel data for England and Wales from 2003 to 2006. We exploit the declassification of cannabis in the UK in 2004 as a natural experiment. Specifically, we use the fact that the declassification changed expected punishments differently in various age groups due to thresholds in British criminal law and employ a difference-in-differences type design using data from the longitudinal version of the Offending, Crime and Justice Survey. Our findings suggest essentially no increases in either cannabis consumption, consumption of other drugs, crime and other forms of risky behaviour.
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Stephen Malone et al.
Behavior Genetics, July 2014, Pages 407-418
Abstract:
The present study used a monozygotic (MZ) cotwin-control (CTC) design to investigate associations between alcohol use and performance on the Iowa gambling task (IGT) in a sample of 96 adolescents (half female). The MZ CTC design is well suited to shed light on whether poor decision-making, as reflected on IGT performance, predisposes individuals to abuse substances or is a consequence of use. Participants completed structural MRI scans as well, from which we derived gray matter volumes for cortical and subcortical regions involved in IGT performance and reduced in adolescents with problematic alcohol use. Drinking was associated with poorer task performance and with reduced volume of the left lateral orbital-frontal cortex. CTC analyses indicated that the former was due to differences between members of twin pairs in alcohol use (suggesting a causal effect of alcohol), whereas the latter was due to factors shared by twins (consistent with a pre-existing vulnerability for use). Although these preliminary findings warrant replication, they suggest that normative levels of alcohol use may diminish the quality of adolescent decision-making and thus have potentially important public health implications.
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Neuroendocrine and cardiovascular reactions to acute psychological stress are attenuated in smokers
Annie Ginty et al.
Psychoneuroendocrinology, October 2014, Pages 87-97
Abstract:
A number of studies have now examined the association between smoking and the magnitude of physiological reactions to acute psychological stress. However, no large-scale study has demonstrated this association incorporating neuroendocrine in addition to cardiovascular reactions to stress. The present study compared neuroendocrine and cardiovascular reactions to acute stress exposure in current smokers, ex-smokers, and those who had never smoked in a large community sample. Salivary cortisol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate and frequency components of systolic blood pressure and heart rate variability were measured at rest and during exposure to a battery of three standardised stress tasks in 480 male and female participants from the Dutch Famine Birth Cohort Study. Current smokers had significantly lower cortisol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and heart rate reactions to stress. They also exhibited smaller changes in the low frequency band of blood pressure variability compared to ex- and never smokers. There were no group differences in stress related changes in overall heart rate variability as measured by the root mean square of successive interbeat interval differences or in the high frequency band of heart rate variability. In all cases, effects remained significant following statistical adjustment for a host of variables likely to be associated with reactivity and/or smoking. In secondary analyses, there were no significant associations between lifetime cigarette consumption or current consumption and stress reactivity. In conclusion, compared to non-smokers and ex-smokers, current smokers exhibited attenuated neuroendocrine and cardiovascular reactions to acute psychological stress. Among smokers and ex-smokers, there is no evidence that lifetime exposure was associated with physiological reactions to acute stress, nor that current levels of cigarette consumption were associated with reactivity. It is possible, then, that attenuated stress reactivity may be a marker for an increased susceptibility to take up and/or maintain smoking behaviour once initiated.
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Gambling with Our Health: Smoke-Free Policy Would Not Reduce Tribal Casino Patronage
Isaiah "Shaneequa" Brokenleg et al.
American Journal of Preventive Medicine, forthcoming
Purpose: To conduct a tribally-led assessment to identify the characteristics of casino patrons at Lake of the Torches Resort Casino in Lac du Flambeau WI and their preferences for a smoke-free casino.
Methods: A survey was administered from April to August 2011 to a stratified random sample of 957 members of the casino players club to assess their preferences for a smoke-free casino. These members were categorized into three groups: those who reported being likely to (1) visit more; (2) visit less; or (3) visit the same if the casino prohibited smoking. They were characterized by age, education, sex, race/ethnicity, annual income, players club level, and reasons for visiting the casino. Statistical analyses were conducted on weighted data in October to December 2011. Weighted logistic regression was calculated to control for potential confounding of patron characteristics.
Results: Of the 957 surveyed patrons, 520 (54%) patrons were likely to visit more; 173 (18%) patrons to visit less; and 264 (28%) patrons were indifferent to the smoke-free status. Patrons more likely to prefer a smoke-free casino tended to be white, elderly, middle class and above, and visit the casino restaurants. Patrons within the lower tiers of the players club, almost half of the players club members, also showed a higher preference for a smoke-free casino.
Conclusions: This tribal casino would likely realize increased patronage associated with smoke-free status while also contributing to improved health for casino workers and patrons.
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The American Temperance Movement and Market-Based Violence
Emily Owens
American Law and Economics Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
The net impact of market legality on crime is ambiguous if consumption of the illegally traded good causes violence. With modern crime data, I show that drug control policy that increases market-based violence while reducing violence associated with intoxication raises homicide rates for individuals in their 20s relative to older and younger people. Using a state-level panel of age-specific homicides from 1900 to 1940, when many states and eventually the federal government criminalized alcohol markets, I demonstrate that the spread of the temperance movement similarly compressed the age distribution of homicide victims, primarily in northern, urban states with large immigrant populations.
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Age at Menarche and Adolescent Alcohol Use
Melissa Verhoef et al.
Journal of Youth and Adolescence, August 2014, Pages 1333-1345
Abstract:
Research has shown that early maturation is related to problematic alcohol use, yet the differential effect of early pubertal timing (i.e., younger age at menarche) on the onset of alcohol use and subsequent level of alcohol use has rarely been examined. This distinction is relevant, as younger age at menarche can have differential effects on these outcomes, which in turn can have long-lasting effects. Therefore, the present study examined the relationship between age at menarche and adolescent alcohol use among girls, hereby distinguishing between onset and level of alcohol use. In addition, the moderating effects of alcohol-specific rules, child disclosure and class gender composition were examined. Participants were 430 girls from a Dutch four-wave survey, with a mean age of 12.17 years (SD = 0.50) at the beginning of the study. Results showed that the probability of onset of alcohol use was increased by younger age at menarche, but only when girls were younger than 15. Moderation analyses showed that younger age at menarche increased the risk of alcohol onset only in low risk girls (with high levels of alcohol-specific rules and in classes with a high percentage of girls). Once adolescent girls started drinking alcohol, younger age at menarche was associated positively with alcohol consumption only for girls in classes with a moderate to high percentage of girls. These findings confirm that younger age at menarche is a risk factor for the onset of alcohol use, but strongly suggest that this effect is strongest for girls having restrictive alcohol-specific rules and in classes with a high percentage of girls. Possibly, in the absence of social factors that "push" to alcohol use, biological factors (like age at menarche) become more important. Another possibility is that adolescent girls start drinking alcohol to oppose their parents if they set too strict alcohol-specific rules.
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Hookah Use Among US High School Seniors
Joseph Palamar et al.
Pediatrics, forthcoming
Objectives: Prevalence of hookah use is increasing significantly among adolescents. This study aimed to delineate demographic and socioeconomic correlates of hookah use among high school seniors in the United States. We hypothesized that more impoverished adolescents and those who smoked cigarettes would be more likely to use hookahs.
Methods: Data were examined for 5540 high school seniors in Monitoring the Future (years 2010-2012), an annual nationally representative survey of high school students in the United States. Using data weights provided by Monitoring the Future, we used multivariable binary logistic regression to delineate correlates of hookah use in the last 12 months.
Results: Eighteen percent of students reported hookah use in the past year. Compared with white students, black students were at lower odds for use (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.27, P < .0001). High parent education increased the odds for use (AOR = 1.58, P < .001), and student weekly income from a job of >$50/week (AOR = 1.26, P < .05) or $11 to $50 per week from other sources (AOR = 1.35, P < .01) also increased odds for use. Males and urban students were also at higher odds for use, as were users of alcohol, marijuana, and other illicit substances. Former cigarette smokers were at higher risk, and current smokers were at highest risk for use.
Conclusions: Adolescents of higher socioeconomic status appear to be at particularly high risk for hookah use in the United States. Prevention efforts must target this group as prevalence continues to increase.
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In utero exposure to cigarette smoke dysregulates human fetal ovarian developmental signaling
Paul Fowler et al.
Human Reproduction, July 2014, Pages 1471-1489
Study question: How does maternal cigarette smoking disturb development of the human fetal ovary?
Study design, size, duration: The effects of maternal cigarette smoking on the second trimester human fetal ovary, fetal endocrine signalling and fetal chemical burden were studied. A total of 105 fetuses were studied, 56 from mothers who smoked during pregnancy and 49 from those who did not.
Participants/materials, setting methods: Ovary, liver and plasma samples were collected from electively terminated, normally progressing, second trimester human fetuses. Circulating fetal hormones, levels of 73 fetal ovarian transcripts, protein localization, density of oocytes/primordial follicles and levels of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the fetal liver were determined.
Main results and the role of chance: Circulating fetal estrogen levels were very high and were increased by maternal smoking (ANOVA, P = 0.055-0.004 versus control). Smoke exposure also dysregulated (two-way ANOVA, smoking versus gestation weeks interaction, P = 0.046-0.023) four fetal ovarian genes (cytochrome P450 scc [CYP11A1], NOBOX oogenesis homeobox [NOBOX], activator of apoptosis harakiri [HRK], nuclear receptor subfamily 2, group E, member 1 [NR2E1]), shifted the ovarian Inhibin βA/inhibin α ratio (NHBA/INHA) transcript ratio in favour of activin (ANOVA, P = 0.049 versus control) and reduced the proportion of dominant-negative estrogen receptor 2 (ERβ: ESR2) isoforms in half the exposed fetuses. PAHs, ligands for the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR), were increased nearly 6-fold by maternal smoking (ANOVA, P = 0.011 versus control). A fifth transcript, COUP transcription factor 1 (nuclear receptor subfamily 2, group F, member 1: NR2F1, which contains multiple AHR-binding sites), was both significantly increased (ANOVA, P = 0.026 versus control) and dysregulated by (two-way ANOVA, smoking versus gestation weeks interaction, P = 0.021) maternal smoking. NR2F1 is associated with repression of FSHR expression and smoke-exposed ovaries failed to show the normal increase in FSHR expression during the second trimester. There was a significantly higher number of DEAD (Asp-Glu-Ala-Asp) box polypeptide 4 (DDX4) VASA-positive (ANOVA, P = 0.016 versus control), but not POU domain, class 1, transcription factor 1 (POU5F1) OCT3/4-positive, oocytes in smoke-exposed fetuses and this matched with a significantly higher number of primordial follicles (ANOVA, P = 0.024 versus control).
Wider implications of the findings: Fetal exposure to chemicals in cigarette smoke is known to lead to reduced fecundity in women. Our study suggests, for the first time, that this occurs via mechanisms involving activation of AHR, disruption of inhibin/activin and estrogen signalling, increased exposure to estrogen and dysregulation of multiple molecular pathways in the exposed human fetal ovary. Our data also suggest that alterations in the ESR2 positive and dominant negative isoforms may be associated with reduced sensitivity of some fetuses to increased estrogens and maternal smoking.
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Tara Dumas et al.
Addictive Behaviors, October 2014, Pages 1510-1515
Abstract:
In this study we examined associations between young adults' drinking patterns and social status within their natural drinking groups (NDGs) and assessed gender differences in these relationships. Same-sex NDGs (n = 104) on route to a bar district were recruited and completed a peer-nominated measure of within-NDG status. In a follow-up online survey, participants (n = 293; 174 men and 119 women) reported their usual drinking pattern within the past year. Hierarchical Linear Modeling revealed that men who engaged in more frequent heavy episodic drinking (HED) (both for 5 + and 8 + drinks in one sitting) and women who drank more frequently were nominated as occupying higher-status positions within their NDGs compared to their peers who drank less. Further, for both men and women, drinking more than one's peers during one's heaviest drinking occasion in the past year was also associated with higher within-NDG status. These findings suggest that higher social status is associated with riskier drinking patterns and have important implications for prevention programming.
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The Market for Mules: Risk and Compensation of Cross-Border Drug Couriers
David Bjerk & Caleb Mason
International Review of Law and Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper uses a unique dataset to examine the economics of cross-border drug smuggling. Our results reveal that loads are generally quite large (median 30 kg), but with substantial variance within and across drug types. Males and females, as well as U.S. citizens and non-U.S. citizens are all well represented among mules. We also find that mule compensation is substantial (median $1,313), and varies with load characteristics. Specifically, for mules caught with cocaine and meth, pay appears to be strongly correlated to expected sentence if caught, while pay appears to be primarily correlated with load size for marijuana mules, who generally smuggle much larger loads than those smuggling cocaine and meth. We argue that our results suggest that this underground labor market generally acts like a competitive labor market, where a risk-sensitive, reasonably well-informed, and relatively elastic labor force is compensated for higher risk tasks.