To Catch a Predator
Bargaining with Double Jeopardy
Saul Levmore & Ariel Porat
Journal of Legal Studies, June 2011, Pages 273-293
Abstract:
Virtually every burden of proof is influenced by a rule regarding relitigation. In criminal law, the prosecutor is prevented from repeatedly drawing from the urn, as it were, by the double-jeopardy rule, which reinforces the beyond-a-reasonable-doubt standard. We suggest that if law were to permit defendants to waive double-jeopardy protection, private and social benefits might follow. The benefits derive from the likelihood that prosecutors - like most people who can take a test but once - overinvest in preparation. Somewhat similarly, though far afield, deficit spending by a legislature might be linked to the fact that spending proposals that are rebuffed can be retested or revisited. We contemplate offering defendants the option of waiving their double-jeopardy protection in anticipation of reduced prosecutorial investment. Innocent defendants might then be more likely to waive, in which case there will be socially beneficial sorting of defendants.
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Prison Gangs, Norms, and Organizations
David Skarbek
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, forthcoming
Abstract:
Much of the order that exists in the inmate social system is not the result of government action. How do prisoners create order? Inmates use a combination of norms and organizations to provide governance privately. Norms rely on decentralized information transmission and enforcement mechanisms. Organizations, on the other hand, have well-defined memberships and create explicit information transmission and enforcement mechanisms. Inmates cannot rely on norms for governance when the inmate population is large, increasingly crowded, and when fewer inmates arrive with a prior prison commitment. When norms fail, inmates create organizations to protect themselves and provide governance. Once these groups have the power to deter predators, they prey on others. Contemporary and historical evidence from California correctional facilities provide support for these claims and suggest an explanation of the origin and growth of prison gangs.
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An Equilibrium-Adjustment Theory of the Fourth Amendment
Orin Kerr
Harvard Law Review, December 2011, Pages 476-543
Abstract:
Fourth Amendment law is often considered a theoretical embarrassment. The law consists of dozens of rules for very specific situations that seem to lack a coherent explanation. Constitutional protection varies dramatically based on seemingly arcane distinctions. This Article introduces a new theory that explains and justifies both the structure and content of Fourth Amendment rules: the theory of equilibrium-adjustment. The theory of equilibrium-adjustment posits that the Supreme Court adjusts the scope of Fourth Amendment protection in response to new facts in order to restore the status quo level of protection. When changing technology or social practice expands government power, the Supreme Court tightens Fourth Amendment protection; when it threatens government power, the Supreme Court loosens constitutional protection. Existing Fourth Amendment law therefore reflects many decades of equilibrium-adjustment as facts have changed over time. This simple argument explains a wide range of puzzling Fourth Amendment doctrines, including the automobile exception; rules on using sense-enhancing devices; the decline of the mere evidence rule; how the Fourth Amendment applies to the telephone network; undercover investigations; the law of aerial surveillance; rules for subpoenas; and the special Fourth Amendment protection for the home. The Article then offers a normative defense of equilibrium-adjustment. Equilibrium-adjustment maintains interpretive fidelity while permitting Fourth Amendment law to respond to changing facts. Its wide appeal and focus on deviations from the status quo facilitates coherent decisionmaking amidst empirical uncertainty and yet also gives Fourth Amendment law significant stability. The Article concludes by arguing that judicial delay is an important precondition to successful equilibrium-adjustment.
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Thomas Stucky
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, February 2012, Pages 3-30
Abstract:
Numerous studies of the determinants of formal social control of Blacks focus on racial threat arguments, which contain implicit or explicit political elements. Using insights from research on politics and social control more generally, this article argues that the relationship between variation in the racial composition of a city and social control of minorities will be conditional on characteristics of the local political system. Hypotheses are tested using pooled cross-sectional time-series data on 100 large U.S. cities in 1970, 1980, and 1990. Contrary to expectations, Black violent crime arrest rates are curvilinearly negatively associated with larger percentages of Black residents. As predicted, the relationship between the percentage of Black residents and Black violent crime arrest rates is conditional on city political system characteristics (elected mayors, district council elections, and partisan ballots), the race of the mayor, and the percentage of city council members who are Black.
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Elsa Chen
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
A hierarchical logistic model is used to analyze data on Three Strikes-eligible offenders in California and the counties in which they are sentenced. The analysis finds that discretion is widely exercised by elected prosecutors and judges in the administration of Three Strikes. Discretion functions as a "safety valve" and preserves some sentencing proportionality, but may also allow political concerns to influence sentencing decisions. A more conservative political environment is strongly associated with stricter application of the law. Consistent with racial threat theory, eligible felons are more likely to receive Three Strikes sentences in counties with larger Latino populations. However, the size of the black population has no significant effect. Higher unemployment rates are associated with more stringent application of the law. Prosecutorial and judicial discretion benefits offenders unequally. Controlling for legally relevant factors, black offenders are more likely to receive Three Strikes sentences, while younger ones are less likely.
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Fingerprints at the crime-scene: Statistically certain, or probable?
Cedric Neumann
Significance, February 2012, Pages 21-25
Abstract:
Fingerprints have been used for a century to identify criminals. But, astonishingly, fingerprint experts rely on subjective opinion, not on objective science. Yet they are required to claim absolute certainty for their judgements - a certainty that is mythical. Cedric Neumann brings probabilities and the hope of better justice to the courtroom; with Julian Champkin he explains the idea.
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The Tragedy of Human Trafficking: Competing Theories and European Evidence
Nadejda Marinova & Patrick James
Foreign Policy Analysis, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper explores an issue that is both domestic and international: whether legalization of prostitution leads to an increase in human trafficking. For both theory and public policy, this is an important query to answer, with implications beyond the cases in question. The principal domains of investigation are Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands. These states subscribe to UN, EU, Council of Europe and OSCE agreements and are located in the same geographic region, yet have adopted opposite approaches to prostitution. The Netherlands and Germany legalized prostitution in 2000 and 2002, respectively. Sweden outlawed it in 1999 and imposed criminal penalties for the purchase of illicit sex. The preceding characteristics make these states ideal for a comparative exercise in the context of competing perspectives on human trafficking and legalized prostitution. We find that legalization leads to an increase in trafficking. The dynamics of trafficking are also associated with numerous factors, among which the most critical are government efforts specifically targeting the activity in the field of law enforcement. Implications for theory and public policy are offered, along with ideas about future research.
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Drawn into Violence: Evidence on 'What Makes a Criminal' from the Vietnam Draft Lotteries
Jason Lindo & Charles Stoecker
NBER Working Paper, February 2012
Abstract:
Draft lottery number assignment during the Vietnam Era provides a natural experiment to examine the effects of military service on crime. Using exact dates of birth for inmates in state and federal prisons in 1979, 1986, and 1991, we find that draft eligibility increases incarceration for violent crimes but decreases incarceration for non-violent crimes among whites. This is particularly evident in 1979, where two-sample instrumental variable estimates indicate that military service increases the probability of incarceration for a violent crime by 0.34 percentage points and decreases the probability of incarceration for a nonviolent crime by 0.30 percentage points. We conduct two falsification tests, one that applies each of the three binding lotteries to unaffected cohorts and another that considers the effects of lotteries that were not used to draft servicemen.
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Gun utopias? Firearm access and ownership in Israel and Switzerland
Janet Rosenbaum
Journal of Public Health Policy, February 2012, Pages 46-58
Abstract:
The 2011 attempted assassination of a US representative renewed the national gun control debate. Gun advocates claim mass-casualty events are mitigated and deterred with three policies: (a) permissive gun laws, (b) widespread gun ownership, (c) and encouragement of armed civilians who can intercept shooters. They cite Switzerland and Israel as exemplars. We evaluate these claims with analysis of International Crime Victimization Survey (ICVS) data and translation of laws and original source material. Swiss and Israeli laws limit firearm ownership and require permit renewal one to four times annually. ICVS analysis finds the United States has more firearms per capita and per household than either country. Switzerland and Israel curtail off-duty soldiers' firearm access to prevent firearm deaths. Suicide among soldiers decreased by 40 per cent after the Israeli army's 2006 reforms. Compared with the United States, Switzerland and Israel have lower gun ownership and stricter gun laws, and their policies discourage personal gun ownership.
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Willard Oliver, Joshua Hill & Nancy Marion
Criminal Justice Review, December 2011, Pages 456-469
Abstract:
The theory of presidential influence over public opinion is used to predict the impact of presidential rhetoric on the public's concern regarding drug use as "the most important problem (MIP) facing the nation." It is hypothesized that the more attention presidents give to the policy area of drugs in their state of the union (SOTU) addresses, the more concerned the public becomes with drug use. Using a time-series regression analysis of data collected from a content analysis of presidents' SOTU speeches regressed on the Gallup Poll's MIP series from 1946 to 2010, the findings suggest that presidential mentions of drugs in the SOTU addresses influence public concern for illicit drugs in America.
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Revisiting the Special Sensitivity Hypothesis: The Prison Experience of White-Collar Inmates
William Stadler, Michael Benson & Francis Cullen
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Despite recent increases in the use of incarceration for white-collar offenders, little is known about the prison experiences of these individuals or how they adjust to imprisonment. Although empirical evidence is lacking, a widespread view has prevailed that white-collar offenders have a "special sensitivity" to imprisonment-that they experience more pains and cope less well within the society of captives. Based on a sample of 366 federal prison inmates, we assessed the special sensitivity hypothesis. The analyses revealed that white-collar inmates are not more likely to experience negative prison adjustment. In some regards, white-collar inmates had fewer institutional problems and were more likely to cope with prison life successfully. Results thus call into question the merits of the special sensitivity hypothesis and are consistent with the view expressed earlier by Michael Benson and Francis Cullen that white-collar offenders may possess attributes and resources sufficient for their successful adaptation to life in prison.
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Psychopathy and fear: Specific impairments in judging behaviors that frighten others
Abigail Marsh & Elise Cardinale
Emotion, forthcoming
Abstract:
Psychopathy is a disorder associated with antisocial behavior and deficits in responding to emotional stimuli, particularly fear-related stimuli. This research demonstrates that these deficits extend to judgments about behaviors that cause fear in others. We assessed whether psychopathy is associated with the ability to identify the emotional consequences of social behaviors and with judgments about these behaviors' acceptability. We found that psychopathy, as indexed by the Psychopathic Personality Inventory, is associated with impairments in identifying behaviors that cause fear and in judging the moral acceptability of these behaviors. Ratings of emotional consequences and moral acceptability were also correlated, such that individuals who less accurately identified behaviors that cause fear also judged these behaviors to be more morally acceptable. Psychopathy scores mediated the relationship between these two variables. These findings suggest that understanding that frightening others is unacceptable relies on understanding this type of behavior's emotional consequences, and have significance for understanding the relationship between psychopathy, empathy, and antisocial behavior.
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Not just the rich: New tendencies in kidnapping in Mexico City
R. Ochoa
Global Crime, Winter 2012, Pages 1-21
Abstract:
This article explores the development of kidnapping in Mexico City. New evidence suggests that this crime has evolved from a crime that until recently targeted mostly the wealthy to one that now targets mainly middle- and working-class individuals. This is counterintuitive since, arguably, kidnapping is a costly crime to plan and execute and is thus better suited for a once-off large payoff. Typical explanations of high crime rates and other criminal phenomena in Latin America argue that either a weak state or very powerful criminals explain high levels of crime and violence. I argue for a middle-ground approach that looks at the interactions between state, criminals and society to explain the changes mentioned. Using qualitative evidence, I explain this shift in kidnapping along three lines: (1) the successful destruction by the state of older, sophisticated kidnapping gangs; (2) the formal and informal strategies that wealthy individuals designed and implemented to protect themselves from crime; and (3) the failure of the state to impose a strong rule of law. The article concludes by reflecting on the importance of deep structural reform as a way to assure long-lasting drops in crime.
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J.C. Barnes & Brian Boutwell
Journal of Criminal Justice, January-February 2012, Pages 94-102
Purpose: Criminologists have devoted much attention to identifying the factors that drive stability in antisocial behavior. This body of research has, however, overlooked the contributions of behavior genetic research. This study sought to blend behavior genetics with the different perspectives used by criminologists to explain stability.
Methods: Employing a behavioral genetic research design, the current study analyzed the correlation between adolescent and adulthood crime (a 13 year time span was covered between the two time points) among a sample of sibling pairs drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health).
Results: The findings revealed that genetic factors accounted for nearly all of the stability in offending behavior from adolescence to adulthood. Environmental factors (particularly, of the nonshared variety) accounted for the majority of the changes in offending.
Conclusions: The implications of these results for criminological research and theory are discussed.
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J.C. Barnes, Kevin Beaver & Brian Boutwell
Criminology, November 2011, Pages 923-954
Abstract:
In recent years, criminological research has observed an increase in studies examining different offending trajectories. Much of this research has been guided by Moffitt's (1993) developmental taxonomy of life-course persistent offenders, adolescence-limited offenders, and abstainers. Moffitt (1993) argued that the etiologies of these different pathways could be traced to several biosocial factors, including perhaps genetic factors. To date, research has failed to address this possibility directly. The current study addressed this gap in the literature by examining the extent to which genetic factors explain variance in different offending patterns. Analysis of sibling pairs (N = 2,284; ages spanned between 11 and 27 years) drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) revealed that genetic factors contributed significantly to being classified in each of the different offending patterns. Specifically, genetic factors explained between 56 and 70 percent of the variance in being classified as a life-course persistent offender across different coding strategies, 35 percent of the variance in being classified as an adolescence-limited offender, and 56 percent of the variance in being classified as an abstainer. We discuss the importance of integrating genetics into future studies examining offending trajectories.
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Estimated Optimal Drug Law Enforcement Expenditures Based on U.S. Annual Data
James Yunker
Journal of Policy Modeling, forthcoming
Abstract:
This research develops and implements a simple model for the determination of optimal national expenditures on drug law enforcement. The key components of the model are an econometrically estimated linear drug violations equation relating drug violations to drug enforcement expenditures and other factors, a parameter measuring per capita costs of drug violations, and a Cobb-Douglas function relating social welfare to: (1) net consumption after drug costs and drug enforcement expenditures, and (2) benefits to users of illegal drugs. The parameters of the model are estimated from annual time series data for the United States from 1981 through 2007. It is determined that if the parameters of the social welfare function are such that the elasticity of social welfare with respect to net consumption (α) is near to unity and the elasticity of social welfare with respect to user benefits (β) is near to zero, the estimated optimal expenditures on drug law enforcement are in the vicinity of the actual expenditures. However, comparative statics analysis of the optimum demonstrates two situations in which significantly reduced expenditures might be indicated: (1) if the α parameter in the social welfare function is significantly below unity and/or the β parameter is significantly above zero; (2) if the drug cost parameter δ is in fact significantly less than estimates based on 1992-2002 data. The latter possibility might be the more relevant, because it seems more likely that society might be incorrectly estimating the costs of drug use (a positive issue) than that society is misperceiving its social welfare values (a normative issue).
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Patterns of Death Penalty Abolition, 1960-2005: Domestic and International Factors
Anthony McGann & Wayne Sandholtz
International Studies Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
On the eve of World War II, eight countries had completely abolished the death penalty and another six had banned it for ordinary crimes. As of early 2008, 92 countries had prohibited capital punishment for all crimes and 10 more had ruled it out for ordinary crimes. The goal of this article is to account for the pattern of national abolition of the death penalty since 1960. We hypothesize that certain kinds of democracies are more liable to end capital punishment than others. Specifically, the negotiated form of democracy produced by parliamentary systems with proportional representation ("consensus democracy" in Lijphart's terms) is more likely to do away with the death penalty than are other forms of democracy. As previous research indicates, democratic transitions also increase the likelihood of abolition. Finally, international influences can also tip countries toward abolition. We suggest that incentives provided by international organizations, particularly in Europe, have drawn some countries toward abolition. The empirical analysis of approximately 150 countries for the period 1960-2005 confirms our expectations.
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Gillian Abel & Lisa Fitzgerald
Health, Risk & Society, January 2012, Pages 7-23
Abstract:
This article explores the movement of sex workers between sectors of the sex industry in New Zealand's decriminalised environment and motivations for working in these different venues. We argue for contextual, risk environment approaches to understanding risks associated with the different sectors and how these risks might influence the movement of sex workers between sectors. By doing so we also address arguments made by policy makers in different countries, with different ways of regulating sex work, for the eradication of the street-based sector of the sex industry. The findings are drawn from a survey of 772 sex workers and in-depth qualitative interviews with 58 sex workers in New Zealand. Findings suggest there is a growing private sector but little change in the size of the street-based sector following decriminalisation. Street-based sex workers argue the need to maximise earnings and that this is only possible from the street environment. They are prepared to make the trade-off of more money for less safety, something which managed sex workers are not prepared to do. This article demonstrates the relativity of risk perceptions and concludes that attempts to eradicate the street-based sector of the sex industry through more stringent regulatory practices are unrealistic and will only serve to place this vulnerable segment of the sex worker population at greater risk. It argues that in addition to decriminalisation, other social and economic policies are required to address risk and develop more enabling environments within the diverse sectors of the sex industry.
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The presence and nature of a near-repeat pattern of motor vehicle theft
Brian Lockwood
Security Journal, February 2012, Pages 38-56
Abstract:
The discovery of near-repeat patterns of criminal offending indicates that certain crimes possess a property of contagiousness that increases the likelihood of future crime events within a close spatio-temporal proximity to earlier offenses. This study investigates whether a near-repeat pattern of offending exists for motor vehicle theft (MVT) in Lincoln, Nebraska. Results indicate the presence of a near-repeat pattern of MVT offending. Specifically, there is a 96 percent increased likelihood of an MVT occurring between one and two blocks, and within 2 weeks of an earlier MVT beyond what would otherwise be expected. Having identified such a pattern, socio-demographic characteristics are used to estimate the relationship between structural correlates of the community and both all MVTs and the MVT 'initiator' events that represent the initial offenses that spawn patterns of near-repeat offending. Results indicate that both initiator events and MVTs in general are more likely to occur in disadvantaged communities. Implications of these findings are discussed.
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"They Can Take Us Over Any Time They Want": Correctional Officers' Responses to Prison Crowding
Joseph Martin et al.
Prison Journal, March 2012, Pages 88-105
Abstract:
Prisons in the Southern United States are among the most underfunded, understaffed, and crowded in the nation. This study seeks to identify how Alabama state correctional officers experienced crowding related to their mental and physical health and safety. A total of 66 correctional officers at 3 Alabama men's prisons are surveyed about crowding in relation to job performance, health and safety, and inmate control. Respondents at all facilities, which had occupancy rates between 154% and 206% of capacity, report high levels of stress and impaired job performance due to understaffing and overwork. Officers at the most crowded prison are most stressed and fearful of inmates. In the absence of policies to reduce density or increase staffing in prisons, new strategies are urgently needed to reduce occupational stress among officers in crowded correctional facilities.
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Carl Williams & Mitchel Roth
Trends in Organized Crime, December 2011, Pages 298-313
Abstract:
During the 1980s and 1990s, Jamaican posses captured the imagination of the press corps, film makers, and numerous of criminal justice scholars in the United States. However, except for a few historical references, their virtual disappearance from the contemporary criminal justice literature leaves many unanswered questions. In updating the literature, this paper examines the main factors contributing to the decline of Jamaican posses in the United States and explains how their criminal activities were displaced to Jamaica through aggressive U.S. anti drug and anti-gang operations and immigration policies.
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The organisation of London's street gangs
J.A. Densley
Global Crime, Winter 2012, Pages 42-64
Abstract:
This article examines a grossly neglected area of the street gang literature: the nature and extent of gang organisation. Based upon fieldwork with gangs in London, UK, this article illustrates how recreation, crime, and enterprise are not specific gang 'types', but rather represent sequential stages in the evolutionary cycle of gangs. This article demonstrates not only how gangs typically begin life as neighbourhood-based peer groups, but also how, in response to external threats and financial commitments, gangs grow to incorporate street-level drug distribution businesses that very much resemble the multi-level marketing structure of direct-selling companies. Gang organisation, in turn, becomes a function of gang business. Gang organisation is conceptualised here on three levels: internal, external, and symbolic. This article examines, respectively, the presence of subgroups, hierarchy and leadership, incentives, rules, responsibilities, and punishments within gangs; how gangs interact with the local and larger community; and how gangs associate with symbolic elements of popular culture in order to convey reputation and achieve intimidation.
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Collateral Consequences in the American States
Alec Ewald
Social Science Quarterly, forthcoming
Objective: This article seeks to analyze varying collateral-consequences policies - laws restricting the rights and privileges of people who have had contact with the criminal-justice system, particularly those with conviction records - in the American states.
Methods: State policies in eight areas are examined, coded, and combined into an eight-point scale, which then serves as the dependent variable for a regression analysis. The analysis models such restrictions as products of ideological and partisan, racial, and criminal-justice-based predictors.
Results: Neither Democratic Party influence nor crime levels appear to influence significantly state collateral-sanctions levels; more liberal citizen ideology predicts slightly more lenient policies, while harsher restrictions accompany rising state incarceration rates. Racial variables press in opposite directions: within the model, scores rise as a state's black population increases, but fall as the percentage of African Americans in the state legislature rises.
Conclusion: Formally creatures of civil rather than criminal law, these "collateral" restrictions appear to possess important affinities with other punitive policies in the United States, yet also resist unambiguous linkage to ideological, criminal-justice, and racial predictors.
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The role of neighborhood parks as crime generators
Elizabeth Groff & Eric McCord
Security Journal, February 2012, Pages 1-24
Abstract:
Neighborhood parks in urban areas have long been seen as contested spaces. Because they are publically owned, they are at the same time everyone's and no one's. As public resources they have little intrinsic guardianship and thus are susceptible to being taken over for undesirable activities (that is, living spaces for the homeless, markets for drug dealers and delinquent behavior magnets for juveniles). While much has been written about parks and crime, little research exists which empirically examines the topic. The current research examines neighborhood parks in Philadelphia, PA as they relate to crime and disorder that occurs outdoors. We use primary data collection to quantify the number of potential activity generators (recreation centers, pools, playground, night lighting, and so on) and other park characteristics. Land use on adjacent streets is also collected. Our analysis finds that neighborhood parks are associated with increased levels of crime in the surrounding area. However, specific characteristics of parks are associated with lower crime levels.