Threatening Behavior
On the Economic Consequences of Mass Shootings
Abel Brodeur & Hasin Yousaf
Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming
Abstract:
In this paper, we investigate the economic consequences of mass shootings. We find that shootings have negative effects on targeted counties' economies. Estimates using three different comparison groups yield similar results. Examining the mechanisms, we find that residents of targeted areas: (i) develop pessimistic views of financial and local business conditions; and (ii) are more likely to report poor mental health, which hinders usual activities such as work, suggesting that shootings lead to decreases in productivity. Further, we find that greater national media coverage of shootings exacerbates their local economic consequences.
Inflammatory Political Campaigns and Racial Bias in Policing
Pauline Grosjean, Federico Masera & Hasin Yousaf
Quarterly Journal of Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Can political rallies affect the behavior of law enforcement officers towards racial minorities? Using data from 35 million traffic stops, we show that the probability that a stopped driver is Black increases by 5.74% after a Trump rally during his 2015–2016 campaign. The effect is immediate, specific to Black drivers, lasts for up to 60 days after the rally, and is not justified by changes in driver behavior. The effects are significantly larger among law enforcement officers whose estimated racial bias is higher at baseline, in areas that score higher on present-day measures of racial resentment, those that experienced more racial violence during the Jim Crow era, and in former slave-holding counties. Mentions of racial issues in Trump speeches, whether explicit or implicit, exacerbate the effect of a Trump rally among officers with higher estimated racial bias.
Where racial and ethnic disparities in policing come from: The spatial concentration of arrests across six cities
Roland Neil & John MacDonald
Criminology & Public Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study examines the extent to which citywide racial and ethnic disparities in arrests are driven by a subset of places within cities. Data are drawn from six U.S. cities from 2014 to 2019. Results indicate that arrests are strongly concentrated within a few block groups, for all race and ethnicities in all cities. Coupled with higher rates of arrests for Blacks and (in some cities) Hispanics compared to Whites and other racial groups, this means that a few places in every city are responsible for driving citywide racial and ethnic disparities in arrests. These arrest hot spots demonstrate very high year-to-year stability. There is a strong relationship between crime and arrest hot spots, making crime hot spots key drivers of citywide racial and ethnic disparities in arrests.
Impact of Changes to Concealed Carry Weapons Laws on Fatal and Nonfatal Violent Crime, 1980–2019
Mitchell Doucette et al.
American Journal of Epidemiology, forthcoming
Abstract:
The U.S. faces rapidly rising rates of violent crime committed with firearms. This study sought to estimate the impact of changes to laws that regulate the concealed carrying of weapons (CCW laws) on violent crimes committed with a firearm. We used augmented synthetic control models and random-effect, meta-analyses to estimate the state-specific effects and the average effect of adopting Shall-Issue CCW permitting laws on rates of homicides involving a gun, homicides by other means, aggravated assaults with a gun and with a knife, and robberies with a gun and with a knife. The average effects were stratified by the presence or absence of several Shall-Issue permit provisions. Shall-Issue CCW law adoption was associated with a 9.5% increase in rates of assaults with firearms during the first 10-years post-law adoption and associated with an 8.8% increase in rates of homicides by other means. When Shall-Issue laws allowed violent misdemeanants to acquire CCW permits, the laws were associated with higher rates of gun assaults. Adopting a Shall-Issue CCW law has likely increased non-fatal violent crime committed with firearms. Harmful effects of Shall-Issue laws are most clear when provisions intended to reduce risks associated with civilian gun carrying are absent.
No Retreat: The Impact of Stand Your Ground Laws on Violent Crime
Alexander Adams
Criminal Justice Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Since the early 1990s, 27 states passed statutes known as “stand your ground laws” to give legal protection to citizens who use lethal force in self-defense, and 8 states have acted as de facto stand your ground states due to court rulings. Proponents of these laws believe they act as a criminal deterrent while opponents say they legitimize vigilantism. The aim of this paper is to determine whether there is a relationship between stand your ground laws and crime. Data from fixed effects and negative binomial regression models from 1980–2018 find no strong relationship between stand your ground laws and crime in either direction. Policy implications are discussed, namely, the primary costs and benefits of these laws are not likely to stem from increases or decreases in crime but rather the legal and ethical consequences of increasing protections for civilians who act in self-defense.
Can Community Policing Reduce the Chilling Effect of Immigration Enforcement on Latinx Crime Reporting? Evidence from Los Angeles
Ashley Muchow
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
While scholars have linked immigration enforcement with reductions in Latinx crime reporting, little research has examined the tools localities can use to counter reporting declines. This study assesses whether a community policing program adopted by the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) offset documented decreases in Latinx domestic violence reporting after President Trump assumed office. Using data on crimes reported to the LAPD between 2014 and 2019, this study finds that while domestic violence reports made by Latinx victims declined elsewhere after Trump took office, they increased in areas exposed to the community policing program. Results suggest that community policing may be a viable tool to encourage help-seeking behavior among residents vulnerable to deportation.
Effects on calls for service of police ‘scarecrow’ cars
John Worrall, Quinn Gordon & P.A. Zanolini
Police Practice and Research, September 2022, Pages 647-660
Abstract:
Stationary patrol vehicles, also known as ‘scarecrow cars,’ have been linked with reductions in speeding, but little is known about their effects on crime and related measures. In response to this limitation, we examined the effect on daily dispatched calls for service of a 32-day scarecrow car deployment in a large retail parking lot in Mesquite, Texas. Estimated with 180 days of pre and post data, interrupted time series and Poisson regression models revealed, as expected, that there was a significant decrease in dispatched calls during deployment followed by an increase post-deployment. Limitations and implications are discussed.
Does crime trigger genetic risk for type 2 diabetes in young adults? A G x E interaction study using national data
Fangqi Guo et al.
Social Science & Medicine, forthcoming
Methods: Data were from the Wave I (2008) National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. A standardized T2D polygenic score was created using 2014 GWAS meta-analysis results. Weighted mediation analyses using generalized structural equation models were conducted in a final sample of 7606 adults (age range: 25–34) to test the overall association of T2D polygenic scores with T2D, and the mediating path through obesity exposure in low, moderate, and high county crime-rate groups. Age, sex, ancestry, educational degree, household income, five genetic principal components, and county-level concentrated advantage and population density were adjusted.
Results: The overall association between T2D polygenic score and T2D was not significant in low-crime areas (p = 0.453), marginally significant in moderate-crime areas (p = 0.064), and statistically significant in high-crime areas (p = 0.007). The mediating path through obesity was not significant in low or moderate crime areas (ps = 0.560 and 0.261, respectively), but was statistically significant in high-crime areas (p = 0.023). The indirect path through obesity accounted for 12% of the overall association in high-crime area.
Estimating the effect of death penalty moratoriums on homicide rates using the synthetic control method
Stephen Oliphant
Criminology & Public Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Research examining death penalty deterrence has been characterized as inconclusive and uninformative. The present analysis heeds a recommendation from prior research to examine single-state changes in death penalty policy using the synthetic control method. Data from the years 1979–2019 were used to construct synthetic controls and estimate the effects of death penalty moratoriums on homicide rates in Illinois, New Jersey, Washington, and Pennsylvania. Moratoriums on capital punishment resulted in nonsignificant homicide reductions in all four states.
Unexpected employee location is associated with injury during robberies
Katherine DeCelles, Maryam Kouchaki & Nir Halevy
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 27 September 2022
Abstract:
Millions of employees are victims of violent crimes at work every year, particularly those in the retail industry, who are frequent targets of robbery. Why are some employees injured while others escape from these incidents physically unharmed? Departing from prevailing models of workplace violence, which focus on the static characteristics of perpetrators, victims, and work environments, we examine why and when injuries during robberies occur. Our multimethod investigation of convenience-store robberies sought evidence from detailed coding of surveillance videos and matched archival data, preregistered experiments with formerly incarcerated individuals and customer service personnel, and a 3-y longitudinal intervention study in the field. While standard retail-industry safety protocols encourage employees to be out from behind the cash register area to be safer, we find that robbers are significantly more likely to injure or kill employees who are located there (versus behind the cash register area) when a robbery begins. A 3-y field study demonstrates that changing the safety training protocol — through providing employees with a behavioral script to follow should a robbery begin when they are on the sales floor — was associated with a significantly lower rate of injury during these robberies. Our research establishes the importance of understanding the interactive dynamics of workplace violence, crime, and conflict.
Discrete emotions discovered by contactless measurement of facial blood flows
Genyue Fu et al.
Cognition and Emotion, forthcoming
Abstract:
Experiential and behavioural aspects of emotions can be measured readily but developing a contactless measure of emotions’ physiological aspects has been a major challenge. We hypothesised that different emotion-evoking films can produce distinctive facial blood flow patterns that can serve as physiological signatures of discrete emotions. To test this hypothesis, we created a new Transdermal Optical Imaging system that uses a conventional video camera to capture facial blood flows in a contactless manner. Using this and deep machine learning, we analysed videos of the faces of people as they viewed film clips that elicited joy, sadness, disgust, fear or a neutral state. We found that each of these elicited a distinct blood flow pattern in the facial epidermis, and that Transdermal Optical Imaging is an effective contactless and inexpensive tool to the reveal physiological correlates of discrete emotions.
Four-Way Stops
Jiasun Li
George Mason University Working Paper, August 2022
Abstract:
Billions of people drive through crossroads every day. We investigate mechanisms ensuring orderly passing at crossroads and question the familiar practice of electing four stop signs in each direction, showing that it is not a Nash equilibrium for all drivers to abide by. Alternatively, we prove that electing only three stop signs induces universal abidance as a unique symmetric equilibrium. This equilibrium enjoys significant savings in drivers' time, infrastructure costs, carbon/pollutants emissions, and police expenditure. For example, for carbon emission reduction alone, the new mechanism is estimated to save at least 2.7 days of gas consumption annually.