The way you look
Distance Makes the Metaphor Grow Stronger: A Psychological Distance Model of Metaphor Use
Lile Jia & Eliot Smith
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, May 2013, Pages 492-497
Abstract:
Current research demonstrates that people rely on metaphors in comprehending abstract concepts, but leaves the situational or dispositional determinants of metaphor use largely uninvestigated. Based on Construal Level Theory, we propose that metaphor use increases as the concept becomes psychologically removed from the immediate self, because distance causes it to be construed more abstractly. Two studies tested this psychological distance model of metaphor use. In Study 1, people opposed an open immigration policy when they were motivated to protect their bodies from physical contamination, but only when they imagined reporting their attitudes in a distant, rather than near, future. In Study 2, metaphorically representing a stock market as an autonomous agent led to predictions that it would achieve its "goals" by continuing to increase (decrease) in performance following a bullish (bearish) day. This metaphoric effect, however, only happened when the stock market was spatially distant, either objectively or subjectively.
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Ideology and Brand Consumption
Romana Khan, Kanishka Misra & Vishal Singh
Psychological Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do mundane daily choices, such as what brands people buy in a supermarket, reflect aspects of values and ideologies? This article presents a large-scale field study performed to determine whether traits associated with a conservative ideology, as measured by voting behavior and religiosity, are manifested in consumers' routine, seemingly inconsequential product choices. Our analysis of market shares for a variety of frequently purchased products shows that both of these measures of conservatism are associated with a systematic preference for established national brands (as opposed to their generic substitutes) and with a lower propensity to buy newly launched products. These tendencies correspond with other psychological traits associated with a conservative ideology, such as preference for tradition and the status quo, avoidance of ambiguity and uncertainty, and skepticism about new experiences.
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Life expectancy as a constructed belief: Evidence of a live-to or die-by framing effect
John Payne et al.
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, February 2013, Pages 27-50
Abstract:
Life expectations are essential inputs for many important personal decisions. We propose that longevity beliefs are responses constructed at the time of judgment, subject to irrelevant task and context factors, and leading to predictable biases. Specifically, we examine whether life expectancy is affected by the framing of expectations questions as either live-to or die-by, as well as by factors that actually affect longevity such as age, gender, and self-reported health. We find that individuals in a live-to frame report significantly higher chances of being alive at ages 55 through 95 than people in a corresponding die-by frame. Estimated mean life expectancies across three studies and 2300 respondents were 7.38 to 9.17 years longer when solicited in a live-to frame. We are additionally able to show how this framing works on a process level and how it affects preference for life annuities. Implications for models of financial decision making are discussed.
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Malia Mason et al.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
People habitually use round prices as first offers in negotiations. We test whether the specificity with which a first offer is expressed has appreciable effects on first-offer recipients' perceptions and strategic choices. Studies 1a-d establish that first-offer recipients make greater counteroffer adjustments to round versus precise offers. Study 2 demonstrates this phenomenon in an interactive, strategic exchange. Study 3 shows that negotiators who make precise first offers are assumed to be more informed than negotiators who make round first offers and that this perception partially mediates the effect of first-offer precision on recipient adjustments. First-offer recipients appear to make assumptions about their counterpart's language choices and infer meanings that are not explicitly conveyed. Precise numerical expressions imply a greater level of knowledge than round expressions and are therefore assumed by recipients to be more informative of the true value of the good being negotiated.
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Subliminal priming of winning images prompts increased betting in slot machine play
Bryan Gibson & Katherine Zielaskowski
Journal of Applied Social Psychology, January 2013, Pages 106-115
Abstract:
In 2 experiments (n = 327), participants played a computerized slot machine game. Some participants had the jackpot symbols repeatedly flashed for 30 ms during preliminary play. Exposure to the subliminal jackpot prime led to more betting and confidence on a final spin. In Experiment 2, this effect only occurred for those who placed their bets immediately following exposure to the primes. Betting and confidence returned to baseline levels if participants were forced to wait for 5 minutes before betting. This finding supports a category priming explanation rather than a goal activation explanation for the effect. Results are discussed in the context of research on subliminal priming, and as an example of an application of subliminal priming effects to consumer psychology.
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Loss Aversion and Foreign Policy Resolve
Jeffrey Berejikian & Bryan Early
Political Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article draws upon recent findings from the field of neuroscience to explore how loss aversion affects foreign policy resolve. We theorize that U.S. policy makers are more resolute in pursuing preventive policies that seek to avoid losses than they are in pursuing promotive policies that seek to acquire new gains. To test our theory, we conduct the first large-n analysis of foreign policy hypotheses derived from the neuroscience of loss aversion using data from 100 cases of U.S.-initiated Section 301 trade disputes. The results provide strong support for the loss-aversion-based theory, revealing that American policy makers are willing to fight harder and hold out longer in trade disputes with preventive objectives than they are in cases with promotive ones. Our study demonstrates that hypotheses derived from neuroscientific findings can be tested using large-n techniques in study of foreign policy, revealing a new avenue of inquiry within the field.
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A Homeowner's Dilemma: Anchoring in Residential Real Estate Transactions
Grace Bucchianeri & Julia Minson
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, forthcoming
Abstract:
We examine whether, and how, listing strategies impact sale prices in residential home sales. Literatures in housing economics, negotiations, and auctions offer diverse predictions around this question. On the one hand, housing studies typically treat home prices as an objective function of property and neighborhood characteristics. Yet, the large and robust literature on anchoring effects (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) suggests a positive relationship between listing prices and sale prices. Finally, evidence from the auctions literature suggests the opposite pattern through herding behaviors. We analyzed more than 14,000 transactions, taking into account observable property heterogeneity, geographical location and timing of the sales. We find that higher starting prices are indeed associated with higher selling prices, consistent with anchoring. For the average home in our sample, over-pricing between 10 to 20 percent leads to an increase in the sale price of $117 to $163. This effect is particularly strong in areas with higher rates of mortgage foreclosure or serious delinquency. Additional analyses show that our results are unlikely to be driven by seller motivations or unobserved home qualities. We contrast our findings with recommendations and private beliefs of real estate agents, who provide services and advice for about 90 percent of home sales in the US.
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Estimating the Effect of Salience in Wholesale and Retail Car Markets
Meghan Busse et al.
NBER Working Paper, February 2013
Abstract:
We investigate whether the first digit of an odometer reading is more salient to consumers than subsequent digits. We find that retail transaction prices and volumes of used vehicles drop discontinuously at 10,000-mile odometer thresholds, echoing effects found in the wholesale market by Lacetera, Pope and Sydnor (2012). Our results reveal that retail consumers devote limited attention to evaluating vehicle mileage, and that this drives effects in the wholesale market. We estimate the inattention parameter implied by the price discontinuities. In addition, our results suggest that estimating consumer-level structural parameters using data from an intermediate market can give misleading results.
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Joseph Goodman & Caglar Irmak
Journal of Marketing Research, February 2013, Pages 44-54
Abstract:
The authors investigate whether consumers systematically consider feature usage before making multifunctional product purchase decisions. Across five studies and four product domains, the article shows that consumers fail to estimate their feature usage rate before purchasing multifunctional products, negatively affecting product satisfaction. The findings demonstrate that when consumers do estimate their feature usage before choice, preferences shift from many-feature products toward few-feature products. The authors show that this shift in preferences is due to a change in elaboration from having features to using features, and they identify three key moderators to the effect: need for cognition, feature trivialness, and materialism. Finally, the authors investigate the downstream consequences of usage estimation on product satisfaction, demonstrating that consumers who estimate usage before choice experience greater product satisfaction and are more likely to recommend their chosen product. These results point to the relative importance consumers place on having versus using product features.
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Izabela Lebuda & Maciej Karwowski
Creativity Research Journal, Winter 2013, Pages 137-142
Abstract:
The main goal of this study was to examine the effects of authors' name and gender on judges' assessment of product creativity in 4 different domains (art, science, music, and poetry). A total of 119 participants divided into 5 groups assessed products signed with a fictional author's name (unique vs. typical, male vs. female) or in an anonymous condition. It was observed that depending on the domain, the uniqueness of the author's name and her or his gender was associated with the assessment of creativity of the product. A poem and painting signed with an unusual name and a piece of music whose authorship was attributed to a man with a unique name were assessed as especially creative. In case of scientific theory, works attributed to men were assessed as significantly more creative than those of women. The results are discussed in light of the attributional approach to creativity.
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Nicolas Souchon et al.
Journal of Applied Sport Psychology, Spring 2013, Pages 223-233
Abstract:
The present research investigated the influence of coaches' exclamations on referees' decision-making in judo. Under time pressure, 65 judo referees judged identical throw situations played on video. The coaches' exclamations during throws were audible in the experimental condition, whereas no sound was present in the control condition. The throw situations varied in ambiguity (low vs. high) and strength (minor sanctions vs. hard sanctions), while coaches' exclamations interpreted the throws in a manner that was congenial for their own competitor. Results indicated that referees may use an audience response heuristic or a consensus heuristic to help them make decisions.
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Lateral bias in theatre-seat choice
Victoria Harms, Miriam Reese & Lorin Elias
Laterality, forthcoming
Abstract:
Examples of behavioural asymmetries are common in the range of human behaviour; even when faced with a symmetrical environment people demonstrate reliable asymmetries in behaviours like gesturing, cradling, and even seating. One such asymmetry is the observation that participants tend to choose seats to the right of the screen when asked to select their preferred seating location in a movie theatre. However, these results are based on seat selection using a seating chart rather than examining real seat choice behaviour in the theatre context. This study investigated the real-world seating patterns of theatre patrons during actual film screenings. Analysis of bias scores calculated using photographs of theatre patrons revealed a significant bias to choose seats on the right side of the theatre. These findings are consistent with the prior research in the area and confirm that the seating bias observed when seats are selected from a chart accurately reflects real-world seating behaviour.
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Ambiguity Attitudes and Economic Behavior
Stephen Dimmock et al.
NBER Working Paper, January 2013
Abstract:
We measure ambiguity attitudes for a representative sample of US households using a custom-designed module in the American Life Panel. Ambiguity attitudes vary substantially across people: half are ambiguity averse, 12% are ambiguity neutral, and 37% are ambiguity seeking. Further, ambiguity attitudes depend on the likelihood of the ambiguous event: people tend to overweight low-likelihood ambiguous events and underweight high-likelihood events, a phenomenon called ambiguity-likelihood insensitivity. Consistent with theoretical predictions, higher ambiguity aversion is associated with less equity market participation, lower portfolio allocations to equities, and more retirement planning. High ambiguity-likelihood insensitivity is associated with a higher probability of being insured.
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Reasoning About Others' Reasoning
André Mata et al.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, May 2013, Pages 486-491
Abstract:
Are people more likely to engage in critical thinking when assessing others' reasoning? And does this reasoning enhancement reflect their belief that others are more likely to be biased than themselves (the bias blind spot, BBS)? In three studies, participants who displayed BBS were better able to detect reasoning biases and performed better in reasoning problems when they were asked to examine responses that were said to come from other people than when those same responses were not attributed to other people. Participants who did not display BBS tended to do the opposite. This pattern was found to result from BBS participants engaging in more deliberate thinking when examining the responses of other people than when those answers are not given a social context (Study 2). Moreover, the better or worse performance that resulted from reasoning about others' reasoning transferred to subsequent unrelated problems (Study 3).
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David Melamed & Scott Savage
Social Forces, March 2013, Pages 1085-1104
Abstract:
We develop a theoretical model of social influence in n-person groups. We argue that disagreement between group members introduces uncertainty into the social situation, and this uncertainty motivates people to use status characteristics to evaluate the merits of a particular opinion. Our model takes the numerical distribution of opinions and the relative status of the opinion holders as factors that contribute to social influence, such that the effect of status becomes stronger as uncertainty about a particular position rises due to the distribution of opinions in the group. Our theoretical model implies three hypotheses, which we empirically evaluate with data from a controlled laboratory experiment. The results support the theoretical model. We conclude with limitations, implications and several directions for future research.
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Max Wolf et al.
Proceedings of the Royal Society: Biological Sciences, 7 April 2013
Abstract:
In a wide range of contexts, including predator avoidance, medical decision-making and security screening, decision accuracy is fundamentally constrained by the trade-off between true and false positives. Increased true positives are possible only at the cost of increased false positives; conversely, decreased false positives are associated with decreased true positives. We use an integrated theoretical and experimental approach to show that a group of decision-makers can overcome this basic limitation. Using a mathematical model, we show that a simple quorum decision rule enables individuals in groups to simultaneously increase true positives and decrease false positives. The results from a predator-detection experiment that we performed with humans are in line with these predictions: (i) after observing the choices of the other group members, individuals both increase true positives and decrease false positives, (ii) this effect gets stronger as group size increases, (iii) individuals use a quorum threshold set between the average true- and false-positive rates of the other group members, and (iv) individuals adjust their quorum adaptively to the performance of the group. Our results have broad implications for our understanding of the ecology and evolution of group-living animals and lend themselves for applications in the human domain such as the design of improved screening methods in medical, forensic, security and business applications.
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Changing Minds: A Psychodynamic Interpretation of Kuhnian Paradigm Change
Julia Elad-Strenger
Review of General Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Thomas Kuhn's model of the structure of scientific revolutions is, to this day, one of the most influential attempts to understand central processes in the history of science. While Kuhn coached his theory in historical and sociological terms, this article argues that modern existential psychology can be used to add a psychodynamic dimension to Kuhn's model. Specifically, while Kuhn famously claimed that scientific paradigms are worldviews held by scientists and described their pattern of change, terror management theory (TMT) emphasizes the existential importance of worldviews and specifies the conditions under which individuals will either radicalize or abandon their worldviews when they are faced with threat or negative evidence. This article shows that the stages Kuhn describes in the history of science can fruitfully be elucidated by central TMT concepts, and exemplifies their applicability through two examples in the history of psychology. The resulting psychological interpretation of scientists' existential attachment to their worldview might prove fruitful in understanding crucial dynamics in the history of science.
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Making sense of information in noisy networks: Human communication, gossip, and distortion
Mark Laidre et al.
Journal of Theoretical Biology, 21 January 2013, Pages 152-160
Abstract:
Information from others can be unreliable. Humans nevertheless act on such information, including gossip, to make various social calculations, thus raising the question of whether individuals can sort through social information to identify what is, in fact, true. Inspired by empirical literature on people's decision-making when considering gossip, we built an agent-based simulation model to examine how well simple decision rules could make sense of information as it propagated through a network. Our simulations revealed that a minimalistic decision-rule ‘Bit-wise mode' - which compared information from multiple sources and then sought a consensus majority for each component bit within the message - was consistently the most successful at converging upon the truth. This decision rule attained high relative fitness even in maximally noisy networks, composed entirely of nodes that distorted the message. The rule was also superior to other decision rules regardless of its frequency in the population. Simulations carried out with variable agent memory constraints, different numbers of observers who initiated information propagation, and a variety of network types suggested that the single most important factor in making sense of information was the number of independent sources that agents could consult. Broadly, our model suggests that despite the distortion information is subject to in the real world, it is nevertheless possible to make sense of it based on simple Darwinian computations that integrate multiple sources.