Testing Education
What do changes in state NAEP scores imply for birth cohorts’ later life outcomes?
Elena Doty et al.
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
Since 1990, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) has been the primary benchmark for tracking the progress of state education reform. The focus on math and reading achievement is motivated by the cross-sectional relationship between test scores and adult outcomes, such as earnings and college completion. But do changes in NAEP scores predict changes in long-term economic and social outcomes for future earners -- or do they reflect other factors unrelated to earnings such as teaching to the test? We investigate by linking long-term outcomes by year and state of birth to NAEP scores. We find that more recent birth cohorts in states with large increases in NAEP math achievement enjoyed higher incomes, improved educational attainment, and declines in teen motherhood, incarceration, and arrest rates compared to those in states with smaller increases. In fact, the relationship between changes in NAEP achievement and cohort earnings is about two thirds the size of the cross-sectional relationship observed in prior research: a 6% to 8% rise in earnings per standard deviation rise in 8th grade math. The results are not sensitive to controls for student demographics, labor market conditions, or measures of children's health (such as low birthweight).
More A than I: Testing for Large Language Model Plagiarism in Political Science
Robert Keener
PS: Political Science & Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article shows how the sudden introduction of large language models (LLMs) has allowed a sudden, significant increase in the ability of political science professionals to plagiarize their articles by prompting LLMs to write for them. Evidence of this is shown through a brief overview of the limitations of LLMs and by searching for words that are disproportionately used by the most popular LLM, ChatGPT, in peer-reviewed articles. What is found is a rapid spike in the use of words that are unremarkable except for their popularity in ChatGPT’s output as determined by an AI professional. This shows that this method can be used to indicate the likelihood of plagiarism in a given article. It then concludes with the limitations of this keyword detection method and recommendations for limiting LLM plagiarism in the field of political science as a whole.
Variability in the Grades Teachers Give: Teacher Grade Value-Add, Mismatch, and Long-Term Effects
Roy McKenzie & Elaine Allensworth
American Educational Research Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
We identify systematic differences in ninth-grade teachers’ effects on students’ course grades in their class (ninth-grade grade value-add), their persistent effects on students’ grades in the same subject of the next grade (tenth-grade grade value-add, representing effectiveness at academic preparation), and mismatch between the grades they give and students’ subsequent performance (representing inaccurate measurement). Persistent effects and mismatch contribute to observed variation in grades. Teacher effects are stable across years, and their effects are predictive of students’ long-term outcomes, including eleventh-grade ACT scores, graduating GPA, and high school graduation. Persistent effects show consistent long-term benefits, while the relationship of grading mismatch with academic outcomes is nuanced.
Pay transparency and productivity
Cédric Gutierrez, Tomasz Obloj & Todd Zenger
Strategic Management Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article investigates the productivity consequences of pay transparency. Tracking the research output of 20,000 US academics and leveraging staggered shocks to transparency, we show that productivity responses vary predictably based on what pay transparency reveals. We reject a hypothesis that pay transparency leads to a decline in productivity. Rather, we find that those who transparency reveals to be inequitably overcompensated subsequently increase their effort, while those inequitably undercompensated subsequently weakly decrease their effort. Controlling for such pay inequity, the simple level of pay has little effect on productivity. Our study provides one of the first field-based empirical investigations of the productivity consequences of wage transparency and points to the importance of clearly delineating the effects driven by equity as opposed to equality of rewards allocations.
Increasing Degree Attainment Among Low-Income Students: The Role of Intensive Advising and College Quality
Andrew Barr & Benjamin Castleman
NBER Working Paper, June 2025
Abstract:
A college degree offers a pathway to economic mobility for low-income students. Using a multi-site randomized controlled trial combined with administrative and survey data, we demonstrate that intensive advising during high school and college significantly increases bachelor’s degree attainment among lower-income students. We leverage unique data on pre-advising college preferences and causal forest methods to show that these gains are primarily driven by improvements in initial enrollment quality. Our results suggest that strategies targeting college choice may be a more effective and efficient means of increasing degree attainment than those focused solely on affordability.
But Who Are the Victims? Reassessing the 568 Higher Education Cartel
James Koch
American Journal of Economics and Sociology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Thirty prestigious independent American institutions of higher education were at some time members of the 568 higher education group (often labeled a cartel). Seventeen of them were sued by the U.S. Government and representative students who alleged that their meetings and deliberations resulted in collusion that caused students to pay higher prices. Twelve of the seventeen institutions subsequently settled their cases and by 2024 collectively had paid $284 million to do so. However, an inspection of these institutions' pricing reveals that the median 568 Group institution lowered its average real net annual cost to its undergraduate students by 19.07% between 2009 and 2022. Further, this reduction was 1.70 times larger than the average real price reduction granted during the same period by the median institution among a sample of 475 other accredited, non-profit, independent four-year institutions and 11.63 times larger than the median price reduction granted by 78 public flagship state universities. The 568 group's real price reductions stretched across every one of the five household income categories commonly used by the Government. Thus, there is little empirical support for the allegations that the Government has levied against the representative 568 group institution, and thus multiple members of this group appear to have paid unmerited fines to the Government to settle claims against them.
Associations Between School Start Times and Adolescent Dietary Intake: Results From a National Study
Katherine Kidwell et al.
Health Education & Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Earlier school start times have been associated with poorer adolescent health outcomes. However, there is limited research on the associations between school start times and diet. The present study aimed to assess associations between school start times and dietary intake in a national sample of US adolescents. Earlier school start time was expected to predict greater energy-dense, nutrient-poor food intake and less healthful/beneficial food intake concurrently. Participants (n = 1371, Mage = 14.51 years, 51% female) were from the National Cancer Institute’s Family Life, Activity, Sun, Health, and Eating (FLASHE) study. Weighted least-squares regressions (with raked weights adjusting for the US population demographics) assessed school start time as a predictor of top-coded eating scales, controlling for demographic and socioeconomic factors. Adolescents who attended schools with earlier start times consumed more energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods which was largely accounted for by greater intake of sugar-sweetened beverages and teaspoons of sugar. Surprisingly, earlier start times were also associated with greater fruit intake. Post hoc analyses of separate variables indicated earlier school start time predicted cups of fruit but not vegetables. Future researchers are encouraged to examine school start time associations with dietary consumption using longitudinal designs and greater nuance in dietary assessment.
Conflicting Incentives in the Management of 529 Plans
Justin Balthrop & Gjergji Cici
Journal of Law and Economics, May 2025, Pages 431-458
Abstract:
College savings plans operating under Section 529 of the Internal Revenue Code are tax-advantaged investment plans growing in popularity with US households. These plans are sponsored by state governments and are exempt from important investor protection laws such as the Investment Company Act of 1940. Section 529 plans charge investors administrative fees -- collected by sponsoring states, program managers, and other intermediaries -- that are several times higher than those of 401(k) plans. We study how the incentives of these key players relate to plan characteristics. Plans offered by state governments that were under budgetary pressure around contract negotiations offer menus with higher fees, weaker performance, and no offsetting benefits. Our explanation is that when states are under budgetary pressure, they succumb to contract terms proposed by program managers that offer states higher fee revenues in exchange for greater latitude for program managers to pursue their own interests.