Talking dirty
Unemployment and Environmental Regulation in General Equilibrium
Marc Hafstead & Roberton Williams
NBER Working Paper, May 2016
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effects of environmental policy on employment (and unemployment) using a new general-equilibrium two-sector search model. We find that imposing a pollution tax causes substantial reductions in employment in the regulated (polluting) industry, but this is offset by increased employment in the unregulated (nonpolluting) sector. Thus the policy causes a substantial shift in employment between industries, but the net effect on overall employment (and unemployment) is small, even in the short run. An environmental performance standard causes a substantially smaller sectoral shift in employment than the emissions tax, with roughly similar net effects. The effects on the unregulated industry suggest that empirical studies of environmental regulation that focus only on regulated firms can be misleading (and those that use nonregulated firms as controls for regulated firms will be even more misleading). The paper’s results also suggest that overall effects on employment are not a major issue for environmental policy, and that policymakers who want to minimize sectoral shifts in employment might prefer performance standards over environmental taxes.
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Political conservatism, religion, and environmental consumption in the United States
Jared Peifer, Simranjit Khalsa & Elaine Howard Ecklund
Environmental Politics, July/August 2016, Pages 661-689
Abstract:
The role of political conservatism and religion in shaping attitudes toward environmental consumption in the US is examined. Previous research suggests that while there is a mixed relationship between religiosity (measured in various ways) and environmentalism, political conservatives are unlikely to support pro-environment measures. Using nationally representative survey data, mixed results are found regarding the relationship of religiosity and environmental consumption: religious attendance and religious identity are positively related to environmental consumption, while belief in an involved God and biblical literalism are negatively related. Increased levels of religiosity, however, mute the otherwise strong negative effect of political conservatism. This suggests, surprisingly, that Green marketers and activists are likely to face less conservative resistance to environmental consumption among religious Americans.
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Darin Ullman
Energy Economics, June 2016, Pages 94–105
Abstract:
Using detailed vehicle specifications, this paper analyzes the impact identifiable vehicle characteristics and technological progress has on fleet fuel economy by vehicle type and class. The results suggest manufacturers will face a difficult task complying with the new footprint-based CAFE standards if compliance is met by only changing identifiable vehicle characteristics. I find evidence that the stringent footprint-based standards create a manufacturer incentive to increase vehicle size to lower the burden of compliance. This undermines the standards' potential to create expected fuel savings and lower emissions levels.
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Systems thinking and environmental concern
Stephen Lezak & Paul Thibodeau
Journal of Environmental Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Systems thinking is thought to facilitate complex decision-making, but relatively little is known about its psychological underpinning. We present three studies that situate a measure of the construct in relation to other dispositional measures that have received more attention in environmental psychology and by testing whether the mindset predicts behavior in a set of novel decision making tasks. In Study 1, we find that systems thinkers tend to believe in scientific consensus, recognize risks posed by climate change, and support policy interventions to address climate change; systems thinking was negatively related to conspiracist and free-market ideation. In Studies 2 and 3 we find that systems thinkers ascribe more value to the natural world — both in monetary terms as well as on social and ecological grounds. The findings suggest that models of environmental cognition can be improved by measuring peoples' tendency to engage in systems thinking.
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The Dynamics of Behavior Change: Evidence from Energy Conservation
Omar Asensio & Magali Delmas
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, June 2016, Pages 196–212
Abstract:
Little is known about the effect of message framing on conservation behavior over time. In a randomized controlled trial with residential households, we use advanced metering and information technologies to test how different messages about household energy use impact the dynamics of conservation behavior down to the appliance level. Our results, based on 374 million panel observations of kilowatt-hour (kWh) electricity consumption for 118 households over 9 months, show that differences in behavioral responses due to message framing become more significant over time. We find that a health-based frame, in which households consider the human health effects of their marginal electricity use, induced persistent energy savings behavior of 8-10% over 100 days; whereas a more traditional cost savings frame, drove sharp attenuation of treatment effects after 2 weeks with no significant savings versus control after 7 weeks. We discuss implications for the design of effective information campaigns to engage households in conservation behavior.
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Lead exposure and violent crime in the early twentieth century
James Feigenbaum & Christopher Muller
Explorations in Economic History, forthcoming
Abstract:
In the second half of the nineteenth century, many American cities built water systems using lead or iron service pipes. Municipal water systems generated significant public health improvements, but these improvements may have been partially offset by the damaging effects of lead exposure through lead water pipes. We study the effect of cities' use of lead pipes on homicide between 1921 and 1936. Lead water pipes exposed entire city populations to much higher doses of lead than have previously been studied in relation to crime. Our estimates suggest that cities' use of lead service pipes considerably increased city-level homicide rates.
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Unintended consequences of the Clean Air Act: Mortality rates in Appalachian coal mining communities
Michael Hendryx & Benjamin Holland
Environmental Science & Policy, September 2016, Pages 1–6
Abstract:
The 1990 amendments to the US Clean Air Act (CAA) encouraged the growth of mountaintop removal (MTR) coal mining in Central Appalachia. This study tests the hypothesis that the amendments had unintended impacts on increasing mortality rates for populations living in these mining areas. We used a panel design to examine adjusted mortality rates for three groups (all-cause, respiratory cancer, and non-cancer respiratory disease) between 1968 and 2014 in 404 counties stratified by MTR and Appalachian/non-Appalachian status. The results showed significant interactions between MTR status and post-CAA period for all three mortality groups. These differences persisted after control for time, age, smoking rates, poverty, obesity, and physician supply. The MTR region in the post-CAA years experienced an excess of approximately 1200 adjusted deaths per year. Although the CAA has benefits, energy policies have in general focused on the combustion portion of the fossil fuel cycle. Other components of fossil fuel production (e.g. extraction, transport, and processing) should be considered in the comprehensive development of sustainable energy policy.
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Geographic proximity to coal plants and U.S. public support for extending the Production Tax Credit
Jillian Goldfarb, Marric Buessing & Douglas Kriner
Energy Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
The Production Tax Credit (PTC) is an important policy instrument through which the federal government promotes renewable energy development in the United States. However, the efficacy of the PTC is hampered by repeated expirations and short-term extensions, and by the general uncertainty surrounding its future status. We examine the factors driving variation in public support for the extension of the PTC using a nationally representative, internet-based survey. Americans living near a coal-fired power plant are significantly more likely to support extending the PTC than are their peers who are more insulated from the externalities of burning coal. The evidence for this dynamic was strongest and most statistically significant among subjects experimentally primed to think about the adverse health effects of burning coal. Raising awareness of the public health ramifications of generating electricity from fossil fuels holds the potential to increase support for renewable energy policies among those living in proximity to coal plants, even in a highly politicized policy debate.
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Neighborhood Greenness and Chronic Health Conditions in Medicare Beneficiaries
Scott Brown et al.
American Journal of Preventive Medicine, forthcoming
Introduction: Prior studies suggest that exposure to the natural environment may impact health. The present study examines the association between objective measures of block-level greenness (vegetative presence) and chronic medical conditions, including cardiometabolic conditions, in a large population-based sample of Medicare beneficiaries in Miami-Dade County, Florida.
Methods: The sample included 249,405 Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 years whose location (ZIP+4) within Miami-Dade County, Florida, did not change, from 2010 to 2011. Data were obtained in 2013 and multilevel analyses conducted in 2014 to examine relationships between greenness, measured by mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from satellite imagery at the Census block level, and chronic health conditions in 2011, adjusting for neighborhood median household income, individual age, gender, race, and ethnicity.
Results: Higher greenness was significantly associated with better health, adjusting for covariates: An increase in mean block-level Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from 1 SD less to 1 SD more than the mean was associated with 49 fewer chronic conditions per 1,000 individuals, which is approximately similar to a reduction in age of the overall study population by 3 years. This same level of increase in mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index was associated with a reduced risk of diabetes by 14%, hypertension by 13%, and hyperlipidemia by 10%. Planned post-hoc analyses revealed stronger and more consistently positive relationships between greenness and health in lower- than higher-income neighborhoods.
Conclusions: Greenness or vegetative presence may be effective in promoting health in older populations, particularly in poor neighborhoods, possibly due to increased time outdoors, physical activity, or stress mitigation.
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Rebecca Massa Nachman et al.
Environmental Health Perspectives, forthcoming
Background: Prenatal exposure to ambient PM2.5, (i.e., fine particulate matter) has been associated with preterm birth and low birth weight. The association between prenatal PM2.5 exposure and intrauterine inflammation (IUI), an important risk factor for preterm birth and neurodevelopmental outcomes, has not been evaluated.
Objectives: We aimed to investigate the association between maternal exposure to PM2.5 and IUI in the Boston Birth Cohort (BBC), a predominantly urban low-income minority population.
Methods: This analysis included 5,059 mother-infant pairs in the BBC. IUI was assessed based on intrapartum fever and placenta pathology. PM2.5 exposure was assigned using data from EPA’s Air Quality System. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) quantified the association of maternal PM2.5 exposure during preconception and various periods of pregnancy with IUI.
Results: Comparing the highest with the lowest PM2.5 exposure quartiles, the multi-adjusted association with IUI was significant for all exposure periods considered, including 3 months prior to conception (OR = 1.52; 95% CI: 1.22, 1.89), first trimester (OR = 1.93; 95% CI: 1.55, 2.40), second trimester (OR = 1.67; 95% CI: 1.35, 2.08), third trimester (OR = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.24, 1.90) and whole pregnancy (OR = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.55, 2.37).
Conclusions: Despite relatively low exposures, our results suggest a monotonic positive relationship between PM2.5 exposure during preconception and pregnancy and IUI. IUI may be a sensitive biomarker for assessing early biological effect of PM2.5 exposure on the developing fetus.
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Leonardo Trasande, Patrick Malecha & Teresa Attina
Environmental Health Perspectives, forthcoming
Background: Preterm birth (PTB) rates (11.4% in 2013) in the United States (US) remain high and are a substantial cause of morbidity. Studies of prenatal exposure have associated particulate matter <2.5microns in diameter (PM2.5) and other ambient air pollutants with adverse birth outcomes, yet, to our knowledge, burden and costs of PM 2.5-attributable PTB have not been estimated in the US.
Methods: Annual deciles of PM2.5 were obtained from US EPA. We converted PTB odds ratio (OR), identified in a previous meta-analysis (1.15 per 10µg/m3 for our base case, 1.07-1.16 for low- and high-end scenarios) to relative risk (RRs), to obtain an estimate that better represents the true relative risk. A reference level (RL) of 8.8µg/m3 was applied. We then used the RR estimates and county-level PTB prevalence to quantify PM2.5 attributable PTB. Direct medical costs were obtained from the 2007 Institute of Medicine report, and lost economic productivity (LEP) was estimated using a meta-analysis of PTB-associated IQ loss, and well-established relationships of IQ loss with LEP. All costs were calculated using 2010 dollars.
Results: An estimated 3.32% of PTBs nationally (corresponding to15,808 PTBs) in 2010 could be attributed to PM2.5 (PM2.5>8.8 µg/m3). Attributable PTBs cost were estimated at $4.33 billion (SA: $2.06-8.22B), of which $760 million were spent for medical care (SA: $362M-1.44B). The estimated PM2.5-attributable fraction (AF) of PTB was highest in urban counties, with highest AFs in the Ohio valley and Southern US.
Conclusions: PM2.5 may contribute substantially to burden and costs of PTB in the US, and considerable health and economic benefits could be achieved through environmental regulatory interventions that reduce PM2.5 exposure in pregnancy.
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Cancer Mortality Risks from Long-term Exposure to Ambient Fine Particle
Chit Ming Wong et al.
Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention, May 2016, Pages 839-845
Background: Few studies have assessed long-term effects of particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm (PM2.5) on mortality for causes of cancer other than the lung; we assessed the effects on multiple causes. In Hong Kong, most people live and work in urban or suburban areas with high-rise buildings. This facilitates the estimation of PM2.5 exposure of individuals, taking into account the height of residence above ground level for assessment of the long-term health effects with sufficient statistical power.
Methods: We recruited 66,820 persons who were ≥65 in 1998 to 2001 and followed up for mortality outcomes until 2011. Annual concentrations of PM at their residential addresses were estimated using PM2.5 concentrations measured at fixed-site monitors, horizontal–vertical locations, and satellite data. We used Cox regression model to assess the HR of mortality for cancer per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5.
Results: PM2.5 was associated with increased risk of mortality for all causes of cancer [HR, 1.22 (95% CI, 1.11–1.34)] and for specific cause of cancer in upper digestive tract [1.42 (1.06–1.89)], digestive accessory organs [1.35 (1.06–1.71)] in all subjects; breast [1.80 (1.26–2.55)] in females; and lung [1.36 (1.05–1.77)] in males.
Conclusions: Long-term exposures to PM2.5 are associated with elevated risks of cancer in various organs.
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Naveed Paydar et al.
Energy Research & Social Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper explores the extent to which local public support for an unconventional gas development (UGD) project is associated with public revenues disbursed to county and municipal governments where UGD occurs. Pennsylvania adopted “impact fees” in 2012, which have raised more than $400 million for use by county and municipal governments that host UGD. We designed a public opinion survey (N = 453) that oversamples residents in UGD counties in Pennsylvania to test whether residents in counties and municipalities that received impact fees are more supportive of a hypothetical UGD project than residents in counties and municipalities that received less or no impact fee revenue. We found that impact fee revenue is positively associated with support for the UGD project. Further, the level of government receiving the funds (county versus municipality) is related to public support for UGD: impact fee revenue disbursed to municipal governments is associated with a higher rate of public support than comparable amounts disbursed to county governments, conditional on the respondent being aware of fracking prior to the survey. Our findings are consistent with the literature on public trust in local government and have implications for understanding the social feasibility of UGD in the United States and internationally.
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Karen Clay, Joshua Lewis & Edson Severnini
NBER Working Paper, April 2016
Abstract:
Pollution is a common byproduct of economic activity. Although policymakers should account for both the benefits and the negative externalities of polluting activities, it is difficult to identify those who are harmed and those who benefit from them. To overcome this challenge, our paper uses a novel dataset on the mid-20th century expansion of the U.S. power grid to study the costs and the benefits of coal-fired electricity generation. The empirical analysis exploits the timing of coal-fired power plant openings and annual variation in plant-level coal consumption from 1938 to 1962, when emissions were virtually unregulated. Pollution from the burning of coal for electricity generation is shown to have quantitatively important and nonlinear effects on county-level infant mortality rates. By 1962, it was responsible for 3,500 infant deaths per year, over one death per thousand live births. These effects are even larger at lower levels of coal consumption. We also find evidence of clear tradeoffs associated with coal-fired electricity generation. For counties with low access to electricity in the baseline, increases in local power plant coal consumption reduced infant mortality and increased housing values and rental prices. For counties with near universal access to electricity in the baseline, increases in coal consumption by power plants led to higher infant mortality rates, and lower housing values and rental prices. These results highlight the importance of considering both the costs and benefits of polluting activities, and suggest that demand for policy intervention may emerge only when the negative externalities are significantly larger than the perceived benefits.
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Brine Spills Associated with Unconventional Oil Development in North Dakota
Nancy Lauer, Jennifer Harkness & Avner Vengosh
Environmental Science & Technology, 17 May 2016, Pages 5389–5397
Abstract:
The rapid rise of unconventional oil production during the past decade in the Bakken region of North Dakota raises concerns related to water contamination associated with the accidental release of oil and gas wastewater to the environment. Here, we characterize the major and trace element chemistry and isotopic ratios (87Sr/86Sr, δ18O, δ2H) of surface waters (n = 29) in areas impacted by oil and gas wastewater spills in the Bakken region of North Dakota. We establish geochemical and isotopic tracers that can identify Bakken brine spills in the environment. In addition to elevated concentrations of dissolved salts (Na, Cl, Br), spill waters also consisted of elevated concentrations of other contaminants (Se, V, Pb, NH4) compared to background waters, and soil and sediment in spill sites had elevated total radium activities (228Ra + 226Ra) relative to background, indicating accumulation of Ra in impacted soil and sediment. We observed that inorganic contamination associated with brine spills in North Dakota is remarkably persistent, with elevated levels of contaminants observed in spills sites up to 4 years following the spill events.
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Chris Jeffords & Lanse Minkler
Kyklos, May 2016, Pages 294–335
Abstract:
We use a novel data set within an instrumental variables framework to test whether the presence and language of constitutional environmental rights influence environmental outcomes. The outcome variables include Yale's Environmental Performance Index and its components. We employ two-stage least squares to account for reverse causality, that is, the possibility that a country which takes steps to protect the environment might also be more likely to constitutionalize environmental rights. Our first stage theory combines constitution norms, opposition costs, and generation effects. Our controls include country income, which means that our study is also related to the Environmental Kuznets Curve literature. We find that constitutions do indeed matter for positive environmental outcomes, which suggests that we should not only pay attention to the incentives confronting polluters and resource users, but also to the incentives and constraints confronting those policymakers who initiate, monitor, and enforce environmental policies.