Strategy and Tactics
On Nuclear Superiority and National Security
Alexandre Debs
Journal of Conflict Resolution, forthcoming
Abstract:
Does nuclear superiority improve national security? The Theory of the Nuclear Revolution (TNR) argues that it does not, but only after assuming that the nuclear balance is irrelevant militarily. Critics argue that it does, pointing at U.S. efforts to achieve nuclear superiority in the Cold War, when the nuclear stalemate was less stable than previously thought. Yet Washington could have been misguided. I offer a game-theoretic model where the nuclear balance matters militarily, perhaps allowing an escape from the nuclear stalemate, and show that greater nuclear capabilities unambiguously improve security under narrow circumstances. If they improve first-strike advantages or if the nuclear stalemate is fragile, they may improve peaceful terms, but only by raising the risk of disaster. I discuss the implications of this argument for our understanding of the U.S. nuclear policy in the Cold War.
The U.S.-China Military Balance in Space
Zachary Burdette
International Security, Spring 2025, Pages 71-118
Abstract:
How will the U.S. military's growing use of space to support its operations and the growing counterspace capabilities available to its rivals shape the balance of power? This article develops a framework to assess the U.S.-China military balance in space and applies that framework to a Taiwan scenario. It evaluates trends in both the U.S. military's dependence on space to defend Taiwan and the resilience of U.S. satellite constellations against a Chinese counterspace campaign. The findings highlight some of the challenges that China's military modernization and expansion have created for the U.S. military, but they caution against overstating the magnitude of the threat. The findings also support qualified optimism about the future: Encouraging trends in resilience will enable space to remain a major asset rather than a major liability for the U.S. military. But the Chinese military will also benefit from these positive trends in resilience, which will create new challenges for the United States in countering China's use of space to support its own military operations.
Grand Strategy and the Spiral Model
Christopher Fettweis
Security Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
Nearly a half-century ago, Robert Jervis described two models states use to understand the intentions of rivals in international politics. These "deterrence" and "spiral" models provide a useful framework to interpret the various foreign-policy debates that occur in the United States, as well as a foundation for its grand strategy. In practice, however, only one model matters in official Washington: the US strategic community views the world through a deterrence-model lens, and rarely gives the alternative much consideration. This paper outlines what a grand strategy based on spiral-model assumptions would entail and explains why it might just prove superior in the pursuit of many long and short-term goals of the United States. Should policymakers wish to prevent a new cold (or hot) war with China, they would do well to consider the insights of the spiral model as they construct their strategy.
Aggressive Journalistic Questioning and China's "Wolf Warrior Diplomacy"
Lize Yang & Hai Yang
China Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
The origins of "wolf warrior diplomacy" have been a focus of studies on Chinese diplomacy in the Xi Jinping era. Building on existing research that emphasizes its foreign origins, our study zooms into a micro-level factor: aggressive journalistic questioning. We investigate the linguistic and interactional dynamics between foreign media and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) to assess and highlight its effects on aggressiveness in Chinese diplomatic discourse. Empirically, our analysis is based on a qualitative analysis of 4,556 question-answer dyads taken from MFA press conferences. Overall, our results lend strong support to the causal relevance of this micro-level factor. Aggressive questioning from foreign journalists significantly increases the aggressiveness of the Chinese MFA's diplomatic rhetoric, although considerable variation exists across issue areas.
"We Have Nothing to Do With It": How Statements of Denial by Armed Actors Shape Public Perceptions and Emotions
Ilayda Onder & Mark Berlin
Texas A&M University Working Paper, May 2025
Abstract:
Armed groups operating in conflicts around the world publish statements of denial to dissociate themselves from acts of violence. Existing research argues that armed groups publish denial statements to avoid public backlash, favorably frame the conduct of their campaigns, and distance themselves from unsanctioned actions conducted by rank-and-file members. However, the broader psychological impact of denial statements on public perceptions remains unexplored. Investigating the effects of denial statements published by armed groups, we conducted a novel survey experiment with a national sample of 1,616 adults in the United States. Participants were presented with a fictional attack attributed to an armed group by the government and randomly assigned to conditions in which the group denied, claimed, or remained silent about the attack. Our findings reveal that denials reduce perceived culpability in attacks, undermine trust in government, and alter emotional responses to violence. These results highlight how denial statements may serve as important rhetorical tools in armed groups' discursive repertoire. This study contributes to scholarship on the communication strategies of armed groups, psychological responses to violence, and the effects of militant discourse on public perceptions.
Military Labor Systems, Domestic Politics, and the Battlefield
Douglas Atkinson et al.
Comparative Political Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
Research has demonstrated that decisions around military conflict can significantly impact governments' political survival. One important strand of the extant literature has focused on the impact of military labor systems, with most academic studies distinguishing between two types of systems: conscription, in which citizens are compelled to serve; and market-based enlistment according to which citizens self-select into military service. In this article, we argue that this conceptualization of military labor systems misses substantial theoretical and empirical variation in recruitment of military personnel over time and across cases. We make two contributions. First, we introduce new data that allow us to capture an important and common additional category of military labor acquisition -- selective conscription. Second, we use these new data to empirically demonstrate that selective systems afford governments significant opportunities to manipulate how the costs of military conflict are distributed across the population. Specifically, we provide empirical evidence showing that countries with selective conscription are more willing to tolerate battlefield casualties.
The fiscal reckoning of war: Contemporary armed conflict and progressive income taxation
Jakob Frizell
Journal of Peace Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Armed conflicts expose states to extraordinary fiscal stress and leave poverty and inequality in their wake. Yet, the fiscal policy responses in contemporary conflict-affected states appear feeble, in striking contrast to historical antecedents, having led to radical and distinctly progressive tax reforms. Whereas extant literature cautions against generalising Western wartime experiences, emphasising qualitative differences in warfare and institutional context, this article argues for the ex ante generality of the link between war and progressive taxation. Accordingly, it elaborates a revised theory of wartime tax bargaining, centred on fiscal need and demand for fiscal fairness, whereby contemporary conflicts, including civil wars, should induce governments to increase taxes, and particularly on the rich. The apparent absence of war-induced progressive taxation in the last decades, in contrast, is overdetermined by international shifts at the end of the Cold War and its influence on local wartime elites. Statistically analysing newly collected data on top personal income tax rates for all conflict-affected countries 1960-2020, it is shown that the link was strong, general and, contrary to common assumption, applied as much to civil as to interstate wars. The results support the theory, whereby acute revenue needs and war-induced demand for fiscal fairness translate into increased taxes on the rich. The sudden uniform disappearance of the association in the last decades, irrespective of country-level factors, is consistent with an interpretation emphasising global shifts precipitated by the end of the Cold War.
The asymmetry of war support: Evidence from private donations to Ukraine
Rimvydas Ragauskas
Conflict Management and Peace Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
The prevailing rationalist approach portrays war as a gradual process of information disclosure, where cost-benefit calculations can influence strategy, outcomes and internal support for conflict. This research advances our understanding of how battlefield dynamics influence public support for war by analyzing tangible indicators of support-private donations to Ukraine. Analysis reveals a striking asymmetric pattern: heightened Russian attacks reduce donations by up to 18%, while Ukrainian offensive operations show no meaningful effect on donor behavior. Disclosed asymmetry presents an intriguing theoretical puzzle that challenges conventional rationalist approaches.