Starting at the water's edge
Patrick Johnston
International Security, Spring 2012, Pages 47-79
Abstract:
Is killing or capturing insurgent leaders an effective tactic? Previous research on interstate war and counterterrorism has suggested that targeting enemy leaders does not work. Most studies of the efficacy of leadership decapitation, however, have relied on unsystematic evidence and poor research design. An analysis based on fresh evidence and a new research design indicates the opposite relationship and yields four key findings. First, campaigns are more likely to end quickly when counterinsurgents successfully target enemy leaders. Second, counterinsurgents who capture or kill insurgent leaders are significantly more likely to defeat insurgencies than those who fail to capture or kill such leaders. Third, the intensity of a conflict is likelier to decrease following the successful removal of an enemy leader than it is after a failed attempt. Fourth, insurgent attacks are more likely to decrease after successful leadership decapitations than after failed attempts. Additional analysis suggests that these findings are attributable to successful leadership decapitation, and that the relationship between decapitation and campaign success holds across different types of insurgencies.
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Anglo-American Primacy and the Global Spread of Democracy: An International Genealogy
Kevin Narizny
World Politics, April 2012, Pages 341-373
Abstract:
For the past three centuries, Great Britain and the United States have stood in succession at the apex of the international hierarchy of power. They have been on the winning side of every systemic conflict in this period, from the War of the Spanish Succession to the Cold War. As a result, they have been able to influence the political and economic development of states around the world. In many of their colonies, conquests, and clients, they have propagated ideals and institutions conducive to democratization. At the same time, they have defeated numerous rivals whose success would have had ruinous consequences for democracy. The global spread of democracy, therefore, has been endogenous to the game of great power politics.
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International Relations and the Psychology of Time Horizons
Ronald Krebs & Aaron Rapport
International Studies Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Theories of international relations have often incorporated assumptions about time horizons - a metaphor for how heavily actors value the future relative to the present. However, they have not built on a growing body of experimental research that studies how human beings actually make intertemporal tradeoffs. In this article, we present relevant findings from psychology and behavioral economics, notably those of "construal level theory" (CLT), and explore these findings' implications for three classic questions - international cooperation, preventive war, and coercion. We argue that experimental evidence regarding how people discount future value and construe future events challenges the conventional wisdom on international cooperation. We further maintain that CLT helps explain a longstanding puzzle about preventive wars - namely why they are often initiated too late by declining powers but too soon by rising competitors. Finally, we rely on these findings to explain who wins coercive contests and why compellence is often, but not always, harder than deterrence. Scholars of international relations often embed in their theories crucial assumptions about time horizons, and this article seeks to show what differences it makes if we ground these assumptions in what we know about actual human decision making.
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Ivanka Barzashka & Ivan Oelrich
Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Winter 2012, Pages 1-26
Abstract:
A comparison between Iran's current nuclear efforts and those of the pro-Western regime of Shah Reza Pahlavi shows that Iranian ambitions for a full-fledged civilian nuclear programme have remained relatively constant for nearly half a century. Today, fuel cycle technology provides Iran with a latent nuclear weapon's potential. However, US concerns about an Iranian bomb, which began in the early 1970s and aggravated after the Iranian Revolution, long predate Teheran's uranium enrichment programme. Thus, Iran is a specific case of the general problem presented by the inherent potential of nuclear technology to both civilian and military ends. Approaches to dealing with a long-term, ambiguous, latent nuclear weapon threat, whether Iranian or other, are suggested.
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The Peaceful Conspiracy: Bond Markets and International Relations During the Pax Britannica
Marc Flandreau & Juan Flores
International Organization, April 2012, Pages 211-241
Abstract:
This article provides foundations to Polanyi's famed argument that monopoly power in the global capital market served as an instrument of peace during the Pax Britannica (1815-1914). Our perspective is novel - we focus on the role of intermediaries and certification. We show that when information and enforcement are imperfect, there is scope for the endogenous emergence of "prestigious" intermediaries who enjoy a monopoly position and as a result, control government actions. They can implement conditional lending: they subject the distribution of credit to the adoption of peaceful policies. Prestigious intermediaries act that way because of their concern with maintaining an unblemished track record when wars increased risks of default. Our analysis, which brings together insights from different disciplines, provides a significant extension to, and departure from, recent research on how countries accumulate reputational capital.
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Economic Performance And Terrorist Activity In Latin America
Daniel Meierrieks & Thomas Gries
Defence and Peace Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We investigate the link between economic performance and terrorism for 18 Latin American countries from 1970 to 2007, taking into account the potentially complex nature of this link. Panel causality analysis findings indicate that during this period, terrorism had no causal effect on economic growth. By contrast, we find that growth reduced terrorism in the less developed but not in the higher developed Latin American economies. We argue that group-specific differences (linked to patterns of economic development) govern this causal heterogeneity. From a series of negative binomial regressions we gain additional support for our findings, while also identifying further determinants of terrorism.
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Institutionalizing shame: The effect of Human Rights Committee rulings on abuse, 1981-2007
Wade Cole
Social Science Research, May 2012, Pages 539-554
Abstract:
What motivates compliance with "toothless" international human rights norms? This article analyzes the effectiveness of procedures that allow individuals to petition an international human rights body, the Human Rights Committee, alleging state abuse of their treaty-protected rights under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. Using methodological tools that account for selection biases arising from a country's decision to authorize petitions and its subsequent propensity to be targeted by abuse claims, I find that basic civil rights and religious freedoms improved after states were found to have violated their human rights treaty obligations, whereas physical integrity abuses such as disappearances and extrajudicial killing were somewhat more impervious to change. These findings are interpreted with reference to the concept of "coupling" as borrowed from organizational sociology, and their implications for treaty design and enforcement are considered.
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The History of Ethno-National Referendums 1791-2011
Matt Qvortrup
Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, Winter 2012, Pages 129-150
Abstract:
This article presents an overview of the total number of ethno-national referendums since the French Revolution to the present day. After establishing a typology of referendums, the article goes on to present the trends in their use from the beginning of the eighteenth century to the present day. While referendums are said to be about democratic legitimacy and idealistic principles, the history suggest that short- and long-term political calculations have been the main motivations for holding them and that their overall number have grown, especially in times of geopolitical upheaval.
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Thomas Carter & John Sugden
International Relations, March 2012, Pages 101-121
Abstract:
When Beijing hosted the Olympic Games in 2008 we were reminded that almost four decades earlier the People's Republic of China's road back to international recognition and acceptance had begun with a chance sporting encounter between two members of the US and Chinese table tennis teams in Japan in 1971. It is less well known that not long after this successful 'ping pong' diplomatic episode, attempts were made by various parties to use baseball in a similar way to try and repair international ties between Cuba and the United States. In this article the circumstances through which the former succeeded whereas the latter failed miserably are subject to detailed examination. Drawing upon existing literature and unclassified material gleaned from the National Security Archive (NSA) and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Archive we argue that for a number of historically specific reasons, and because of the different balances of interest and asymmetric power relations, 'ping pong' diplomacy was able to help broker rapprochement between the United States and China, whereas 'baseball diplomacy' could do little or nothing to stimulate diplomatic relations between Washington and Havana.
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Confronting Soviet Power: U.S. Policy during the Early Cold War
Paul Avey
International Security, Spring 2012, Pages 151-188
Abstract:
Many self-identified realist, liberal, and constructivist scholars contend that ideology played a critical role in generating and shaping the United States' decision to confront the Soviet Union in the early Cold War. A close look at the history reveals that these ideological arguments fail to explain key aspects of U.S. policy. Contrary to ideological explanations, the United States initially sought to cooperate with the Soviet Union, did not initially pressure communist groups outside the Soviet orbit, and later sought to engage communist groups that promised to undermine Soviet power. The U.S. decision to confront the Soviets stemmed instead from the distribution of power. U.S. policy shifted toward a confrontational approach as the balance of power in Eurasia tilted in favor of the Soviet Union. In addition, U.S. leaders tended to think and act in a manner consistent with balance of power logic. The primacy of power over ideology in U.S. policymaking - given the strong liberal tradition in the United States and the large differences between U.S. and Soviet ideology - suggests that relative power concerns are the most important factors in generating and shaping confrontational foreign policies.
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Democracy as Justification for Waging War: The Role of Public Support
Juan Falomir-Pichastor et al.
Social Psychological and Personality Science, May 2012, Pages 324-332
Abstract:
Democracy is positively valued. This positive evaluation extends to a democracy's actions, even if it is to wage war. The authors investigated whether the perceived legitimacy of military interventions depends on the political structure (democratic vs. nondemocratic) of the countries involved and on the aggressor country's popular support for the government's aggressive policy. Participants learned that an alleged country planned to attack another. The political structure of both countries was manipulated in the two experiments. The support of the aggressor's population toward military intervention was measured in Experiment 1 and manipulated in Experiment 2. Both experiments confirmed that military intervention was perceived as being less illegitimate when the population supported their democratic government's policy to attack a nondemocratic country.
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The legitimacy of foreign intervention in elections: The Ukrainian response
Stephen Shulman & Stephen Bloom
Review of International Studies, April 2012, Pages 445-471
Abstract:
The empirical and theoretical study of the effect of foreign intervention in the electoral processes of states is exceedingly weak. Using insights from the nationalism literature, this article provides a theoretical argument on domestic reactions to foreign interference in a state's internal politics. It then tests the predictions generated by the argument using mass survey data in Ukraine. The article analyses the Ukrainian people's reaction to Western and Russian intervention in the 2004 presidential elections - the Orange Revolution. We find that efforts by Western governments, international organisations, and non-governmental organisations to shape Ukraine's electoral landscape appear to be unwelcome to average Ukrainians while electoral interference by a non-democratic state, Russia, is seen as less alienating. Our theoretical framework accounts for these potentially surprising results.
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Trading on Preconceptions: Why World War I Was Not a Failure of Economic Interdependence
Erik Gartzke & Yonatan Lupu
International Security, Spring 2012, Pages 115-150
Abstract:
World War I is generally viewed by both advocates and critics of commercial liberal theory as the quintessential example of a failure of economic integration to maintain peace. Yet this consensus relies on both methodologically flawed inference and an incomplete accounting of the antecedents to the war. Crucially, World War I began in a weakly integrated portion of Europe with which highly integrated powers were entangld through the alliance system. Crises among the highly interdependent European powers in the decades leading up to the war were generally resolved without bloodshed. Among the less interdependent powers in Eastern Europe, however, crises regularly escalated to militarized violence. Moreover, the crises leading to the war created increased incentives for the integrated powers to strengthen commitments to their less interdependent partners. In attempting to make these alliances more credible, Western powers shifted foreign policy discretion to the very states that lacked strong economic disincentives to fght. Had globalization pervaded Eastern Europe, or if the rest of Europe had been less locked into events in the east, Europe might have avoided a "Great War."
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Juan Falomir-Pichastor et al.
Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, May 2012, Pages 347-362
Abstract:
This research examined the support for international military interventions as a function of the political system and the public opinion of the target country. In two experiments, we informed participants about a possible military intervention by the international community towards a sovereign country whose government planned to use military force against a secessionist region. They were then asked whether they would support this intervention whilst being reminded that it would cause civilian deaths. The democratic or nondemocratic political system of the target country was experimentally manipulated, and the population support for its belligerent government policy was either assessed (Experiment 1) or manipulated (Experiment 2). Results showed greater support for the intervention when the target country was nondemocratic, as compared to the democratic and the control conditions, but only when its population supported the belligerent government policy. Support for the external intervention was low when the target country was democratic, irrespective of national public opinion. These findings provide support for the democracy-as-value hypothesis applied to international military interventions, and suggest that civilian deaths (collateral damage) are more acceptable when nondemocratic populations support their government's belligerent policy.
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Beyond the Cephalic Index: Negotiating Politics to Produce UNESCO's Scientific Statements on Race
Perrin Selcer
Current Anthropology, April 2012, Pages S173-S184
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the production and reception of UNESCO's Statements on Race from 1950, 1951, and 1964 to track the consolidation of a scientific consensus on the biological significance of race. The race statements played a key role in the establishment of the postwar liberal antiracist orthodoxy, and their history illuminates broader dynamics in the production of scientific scripts intended to influence political debates. The consensus was rooted in the synthesis of physical anthropology and population biology but depended on a parallel strengthening of antiracist social norms in the international community. As much as race, conflicts over the race statements were disputes over scientific authority - over who, if anyone, should be authorized to speak for science. Because international civil servants and activist scientists had to negotiate disciplinary, national, and international politics to achieve an acceptable consensus, a close reading of this history reveals the importance of shifting political and social meanings of equality on scientific statements of biological facts. Two central ironies that emerge are the shifting association of bell curves from representations of liberal racial tolerance to icons of enduring racism and the importance of increasing racial and national diversity in the international scientific community to discrediting biological determinism.
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Demographic Changes in North Korea: 1993-2008
Thomas Spoorenberg & Daniel Schwekendiek
Population and Development Review, March 2012, Pages 133-158
Abstract:
Given the scarcity of population data, few demographic analyses have been conducted on population trends in North Korea. Using the 1993 and 2008 population and housing census data, we prospectively reconstruct population change in the country during the 15 intercensal years. Reconstruction of the population trends of North Korea enables us to assess the consistency of the available demographic evidence and to assess the demographic impact of the famine in the 1990s. According to the results of the population reconstruction and our counterfactual population projections, the famine caused between 240,000 and 420,000 total excess deaths - lower than the previous estimate of 600,000-1 million; and the human costs of the deteriorating living conditions between 1993 and 2008 may be estimated as 600,000 to 850,000 total excess deaths attributable to economic decline in the post-Cold war era. The reconstructed population trends mirror the continuing deterioration of the living conditions in North Korea since the early 1990s.
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Beyond the Target State: Foreign Military Intervention and Neighboring State Stability
Dursun Peksen & Marie Olson Lounsbery
International Interactions, forthcoming
Abstract:
Despite the abundance of research on the consequences of foreign military intervention for target countries, scant research has been devoted to the possible regional externalities of intervention. This article examines whether large-scale armed operations affect the likelihood of civil conflict onset in countries neighboring the target of intervention. We posit that interventions against the target regime reduce the government's ability to maintain full control over the entire national territory by diminishing its coercive and administrative capacity. This might, in turn, result in safe haven possibilities for neighboring rival groups in the target and facilitate the transnational spread of arms and other illicit activities that increase the risk of civil conflict onset in the contiguous countries. Armed interventions supportive or neutral towards the target state, on the other hand, bolster the government's coercive capacity and mitigate ongoing crises in the target. Such armed intrusions might therefore undermine the likelihood of internal armed conflict in neighboring countries triggered by the factors associated with "bad neighborhoods": safe haven possibilities, transnational spread of arms, and refugee flows. To substantiate these claims, we use time-series, cross-national data for the 1951-2004 period. Results indicate that hostile interventions increase the probability of civil conflict onset in connected countries while supportive interventions have a regional pacifying effect, reducing the likelihood of domestic unrest in countries neighboring the target state. Neutral interventions, on the other hand, are unlikely to have any discernible effect on the regional stability. Further, the primary motive of intervention, whether for humanitarian or other purposes, has no statistically significant impact on the stability of neighboring countries.
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Maoz Azaryahu & Arnon Golan
Israel Studies, Summer 2012, Pages 62-76
Abstract:
Much of the recent academic literature on the 1948 war portray it a one-sided - and thus simplistic - ethnic cleansing of the Arab population of Palestine. Referred to as the Naqba paradigm, it features the Jews/Zionists as villainous perpetrators and the Palestinian Arabs as feeble victims. Accordingly, the story of "the 1948 Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine" excludes expulsion and massacres of Jews, the destruction of Jewish communities, and the erasure of the Jewish signifiers in the local landscape from the story. As made explicit in John Phillips' photo-reportage featuring the destruction of the Jewish Quarter of the Old City of Jerusalem, the ethnic cleansing of Palestine also involved the expulsion of Jews and the destruction of their communities - whenever and wherever military power relations were in favor of Arab forces.