Something to learn from
The Long-Run Effects of Teacher Collective Bargaining
Michael Lovenheim & Alex Willen
Cornell University Working Paper, June 2016
Abstract:
This paper presents the first analysis of the effect of teacher collective bargaining on long-run labor market and educational attainment outcomes. Our analysis exploits the different timing across states in the passage of duty-to-bargain laws in a difference-in-difference framework to identify how exposure to teacher collective bargaining affects the long-run outcomes of students. Using American Community Survey (ACS) data linked to each respondent’s state of birth, we examine labor market outcomes and educational attainment for 35-49 year olds. Our estimates suggest that teacher collective bargaining worsens the future labor market outcomes of students: living in a state that has a duty-to-bargain law for all 12 grade-school years reduces earnings by $800 (or 2%) per year and decreases hours worked by 0.50 hours per week. The earnings estimate indicates that teacher collective bargaining reduces earnings by $199.6 billion in the US annually. We also find evidence of lower employment rates, which is driven by lower labor force participation, as well as reductions in the skill levels of the occupations into which workers sort. The effects are driven by men and nonwhites, who experience larger relative declines in long-run outcomes. Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we demonstrate that collective bargaining leads to sizable reductions in measured cognitive and non-cognitive skills among young adults. Taken together, our results suggest laws that support collective bargaining for teachers have adverse long-term labor market consequences for students.
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Financial Aid, Debt Management, and Socioeconomic Outcomes: Post-College Effects of Merit-Based Aid
Judith Scott-Clayton & Basit Zafar
NBER Working Paper, August 2016
Abstract:
Prior research has demonstrated that financial aid can influence both college enrollments and completions, but less is known about its post-college consequences. Even for students whose attainment is unaffected, financial aid may affect post-college outcomes via reductions in both time to degree and debt at graduation. We utilize two complementary quasi-experimental strategies to identify causal effects of the WV PROMISE scholarship, a broad-based state merit aid program, up to 10 years post-college-entry. This study is the first to link college transcripts and financial aid information to credit bureau data later in life, enabling us to examine important outcomes that have not previously been examined, including homeownership, neighborhood characteristics, and financial management (credit risk scores, defaults, and delinquencies). We find that even as graduation impacts fade out over time, impacts on other outcomes emerge: scholarship recipients are more likely to earn a graduate degree, more likely to own a home and live in higher-income neighborhoods, less likely to have adverse credit outcomes, and are more likely to be in better financial health than similar students who did not receive scholarships.
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Did Cheaper Flights Change the Direction of Science?
Christian Catalini, Christian Fons-Rosen & Patrick Gaulé
MIT Working Paper, April 2016
Abstract:
We test how a reduction in travel cost affects the rate and direction of scientific research. Using a fine-grained, scientist-level dataset within chemistry (1991-2012), we find that after Southwest Airlines enters a new route, scientific collaboration increases by 50%, an effect that is magnified when weighting output by quality. The benefits from the lower fares, however, are not uniform across scientist types: younger scientists and scientists that are more productive than their local peers respond the most. Thus, cheaper flights, by reducing frictions otherwise induced by geography and allowing for additional face-to-face interactions, seem to enable better matches over distance.
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The Effect of Teacher Ratings on Teacher Performance
Nolan Pope
University of Chicago Working Paper, January 2016
Abstract:
In August 2010, the Los Angeles Times publicly released value-added ratings for teachers and elementary schools in Los Angeles. Exploiting the release of these ratings as a natural experiment and using the timing of their release to account for regression to the mean, I find that low-rated teachers saw increases in their students’ math and English test scores. High-rated teachers saw little to no change in their students’ tests with the release of the ratings. These differential responses from low- and high-rated teachers suggest possible test score gains from the release of teacher ratings. School ratings had no additional impact on student test scores. I find no evidence that the release of the ratings affected classroom composition or teacher turnover.
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Charter Schools and Labor Market Outcomes
Will Dobbie & Roland Fryer
NBER Working Paper, August 2016
Abstract:
We estimate the impact of charter schools on early-life labor market outcomes using administrative data from Texas. We find that, at the mean, charter schools have no impact on test scores and a negative impact on earnings. No Excuses charter schools increase test scores and four-year college enrollment, but have a small and statistically insignificant impact on earnings, while other types of charter schools decrease test scores, four-year college enrollment, and earnings. Moving to school-level estimates, we find that charter schools that decrease test scores also tend to decrease earnings, while charter schools that increase test scores have no discernible impact on earnings. In contrast, high school graduation effects are predictive of earnings effects throughout the distribution of school quality. The paper concludes with a speculative discussion of what might explain our set of facts.
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Do Top Dogs Rule in Middle School? Evidence on Bullying, Safety, and Belonging
Amy Ellen Schwartz, Leanna Stiefel & Michah Rothbart
American Educational Research Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
Recent research finds that grade span affects academic achievement but only speculates about the mechanisms. In this study, we examine one commonly cited mechanism, the top dog/bottom dog phenomenon, which states that students at the top of a grade span (“top dogs”) have better experiences than those at the bottom (“bottom dogs”). Using an instrumental variables strategy introduced in Rockoff and Lockwood (2010) and a longitudinal data set containing student survey data for New York City public middle school students, we estimate the impact of top dog and bottom dog status on bullying, safety, belonging, and academic achievement. This article provides the first credibly causal evidence that top dog status improves the learning environment and academic achievement. We further find that the top dog effect is strongest in sixth grade and in schools with longer grade spans and that the top dog effect is not explained by new students to a school or student height.
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The Natural Selection of Bad Science
Paul Smaldino & Richard McElreath
University of California Working Paper, June 2016
Abstract:
Poor research design and data analysis encourage false-positive findings. Such poor methods persist despite perennial calls for improvement, suggesting that they result from something more than just misunderstanding. The persistence of poor methods results partly from incentives that favor them, leading to the natural selection of bad science. This dynamic requires no conscious strategizing — no deliberate cheating nor loafing — by scientists, only that publication is a principle factor for career advancement. Some normative methods of analysis have almost certainly been selected to further publication instead of discovery. In order to improve the culture of science, a shift must be made away from correcting misunderstandings and towards rewarding understanding. We support this argument with empirical evidence and computational modeling. We first present a 60-year meta-analysis of statistical power in the behavioral sciences and show that power has not improved despite repeated demonstrations of the necessity of increasing power. To demonstrate the logical consequences of structural incentives, we then present a dynamic model of scientific communities in which competing laboratories investigate novel or previously published hypotheses using culturally transmitted research methods. As in the real world, successful labs produce more “progeny,” such that their methods are more often copied and their students are more likely to start labs of their own. Selection for high output leads to poorer methods and increasingly high false discovery rates. We additionally show that replication slows but does not stop the process of methodological deterioration. Improving the quality of research requires change at the institutional level.
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Human Capital Investments and Expectations about Career and Family
Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar
NBER Working Paper, August 2016
Abstract:
This paper studies how individuals "believe" human capital investments will affect their future career and family life. We conducted a survey of high-ability currently enrolled college students and elicited beliefs about how their choice of college major, and whether to complete their degree at all, would affect a wide array of future events, including future earnings, employment, marriage prospects, potential spousal characteristics, and fertility. We find that students perceive large "returns" to human capital not only in their own future earnings, but also in a number of other dimensions (such as future labor supply and potential spouse's earnings). In a recent follow-up survey conducted six years after the initial data collection, we find a close connection between the expectations and current realizations. Finally, we show that both the career and family expectations help explain human capital choices.
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Angela Boatman & Bridget Terry Long
Research in Higher Education, September 2016, Pages 653-681
Abstract:
While increasing numbers of students have gained access to higher education during the last several decades, postsecondary persistence and academic success remain serious concerns with only about half of college entrants completing degrees. Given concerns about affordability and resources, policymakers and administrators wonder how financial aid impacts student outcomes, particularly among low-income students. We investigate this question looking at a range of outcomes beyond just academic performance by focusing on the Gates Millennium Scholars (GMS) Program, a generous grant program that provided a renewable scholarship to talented undergraduate students of color with financial need. We isolate the impact of financial aid on academic and community engagement by comparing the outcomes of GMS recipients to similar non-recipients who were likely to have comparably-high levels of motivation and potential for success. With information about the application process, we use similar applicants not selected for the award as a comparison group. We then employ a Regression Discontinuity research design to provide causal estimates of the effects of GMS. The results suggest that GMS recipients were more likely to engage with peers on school work outside of class. Additionally, GMS recipients were much more likely to participate in community service activities and marginally more likely to participate in other extracurricular activities than their non-GMS peers.
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One size fits all? The effects of teachers' cognitive and social abilities on student achievement
Erik Grönqvist & Jonas Vlachos
Labour Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We document a substantial decline in cognitive and social interactive abilities and in GPAs among entering teachers. Then, using matched student-teacher data, we find that teacher abilities have a negligible impact on average student achievement. This finding hides interesting heterogeneities. In particular, an increase in teachers' cognitive (social) abilities increases (reduces) the achievement gap between high- and low-aptitude students. Teacher cognitive and social abilities further appear to be complements. We also find strong positive effects of male teachers' GPAs that are uniform across students, but similar effects are not found for female teachers' GPAs.
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Assessing the Effect of School Days and Absences on Test Score Performance
Esteban Aucejo & Teresa Foy Romano
Economics of Education Review, December 2016, Pages 70–87
Abstract:
While instructional time is viewed as crucial to learning, little is known about the effectiveness of reducing absences relative to increasing the number of school days. Using administrative data from North Carolina public schools, this paper jointly estimates the effect of absences and length of the school calendar on test score performance. We exploit a state policy that provides variation in the number of school days prior to standardized testing and find substantial differences between these two effects. Extending the school calendar by ten days increases math and reading test scores by only 1.7% and 0.8% of a standard deviation, respectively. A similar reduction in absences would lead to gains of 5.5% in math and 2.9% in reading. We perform a number of robustness checks including utilizing flu data to instrument for absences, family-year fixed effects, distinguishing between excused and unexcused absences, and controlling for a contemporaneous measure of student disengagement. Our results are robust to these alternative specifications. In addition, our findings indicate considerable heterogeneity across student ability, suggesting that targeting absenteeism among low performing students could aid in narrowing current gaps in performance.
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Megan Holland & Stefanie DeLuca
Sociology of Education, forthcoming
Abstract:
Increasing numbers of low-income and minority youth are now pursuing shorter-duration sub-baccalaureate credentials at for-profit trade and technical schools. However, many students drop out of these schools, leaving with large debts and few job prospects. Despite these dismal outcomes, we know very little about students’ experiences in for-profit programs and how these institutions shape postsecondary attainment. Using data from fieldwork with 150 inner-city African American youth, we examine why disadvantaged youth are attracted to these schools and why they struggle to complete certifications. In contrast to previous research, we find that the youth in our study have quite modest ambitions and look to for-profit trade schools as the quickest and most direct route to work. However, youth receive little information or guidance to support such postsecondary transitions. Therefore, the very element that makes for-profit trade school programs seem the most appealing — a curriculum focused on one particular career — becomes an obstacle when it requires youth to commit to a program of study before they have explored their interests. When youth realize they do not like or are not prepared for their chosen career, they adopt coping strategies that keep them in school but swirling between programs, rather than accumulating any credentials.
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The Effects of State Merit Aid Programs on Attendance at Elite Colleges
David Sjoquist & John Winters
Southern Economic Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
State merit aid programs have been found to reduce the likelihood that students attend college out of state. Using the U.S. News & World Report (USNWR) rankings of colleges and universities to measure college quality and Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System data to measure enrollment, we explore how this reduction in out-of-state enrollment differs by the academic quality of the institution. Our difference-in-differences results suggest that state merit aid programs do not induce students to forgo attending top 15 ranked schools. However, state merit aid does induce some students to forgo attending out-of-state schools ranked below the top 15 and shifts them toward lower quality in-state schools, so that the net effect is a reduction in academic quality, as measured by USNWR. These effects may have long-term implications for students' degree completion rates and labor market earnings.
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The Incidence of Student Loan Subsidies
Mahyar Kargar & William Mann
University of California Working Paper, July 2016
Abstract:
We investigate the effect of subsidized loans on credit-constrained students. For identification, we exploit a tightening of credit standards for the PLUS loan program in 2011. Following the standards tightening, enrollment and tuition both fell at colleges that relied heavily on PLUS loans. We exploit this demand shock to estimate elasticities of supply and demand for higher education. Demand elasticity is identified through a novel approach that exploits differential effects on public and private colleges. Our elasticity estimates imply that a 10% tuition subsidy would increase tuition by about 7.5% and enrollment by about 10%. Colleges primarily respond to tuition revenue shortfalls by cutting back on instructional expenses.
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Detracking and Tracking Up: Mathematics Course Placements in California Middle Schools, 2003–2013
Thurston Domina et al.
American Educational Research Journal, August 2016, Pages 1229-1266
Abstract:
Between 2003 and 2013, the proportion of California eighth graders enrolled in algebra or a more advanced course nearly doubled to 65%. In this article, we consider the organizational processes that accompanied this curricular intensification. Facing a complex set of accountability, institutional, technical/functional, and internal political pressures, California schools responded to the algebra-for-all effort in diverse ways. While some schools detracked by enrolling all eighth graders in algebra, others “tracked up,” creating more advanced geometry opportunities while increasing algebra enrollments. These responses created a new differentiated course structure that is likely to benefit advantaged students. Consistent with the effectively maintained inequality hypothesis, we find that detracking occurred primarily in disadvantaged schools while “tracking up” occurred primarily in advantaged schools.
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Non-public competition and public school performance: Evidence from West Virginia
Richard Cebula, Joshua Hall & Maria Tackett
Applied Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
In this study, we investigate whether non-public school enrolment affects the performance of public school districts. If homeschooling and private schools act as competition, public school districts test scores should be positively associated with non-public enrolment. Using data on West Virginia county school districts, and controlling for endogeneity with an instrumental variables approach, we find that a one standard deviation increase in relative non-public enrolment in a county is associated with statistically significant improvements in public school district test scores. Our findings thus confirm that non-public enrollment and the competition it provides act to improve, rather than impede, public school performance.
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Albert Yoon
Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, September 2016, Pages 428–453
Abstract:
In academia, a subset of faculty has tenure, which allows its beneficiaries to retain their professorships without mandatory retirement and with only limited grounds for revocation. Proponents of tenure argue it protects intellectual freedom and encourages investment in human capital. Detractors contend it discourages effort and distorts the academic labor market. This article develops a framework for examining academic tenure in the context of U.S. law schools. We construct a unique data set of tenured U.S. law professors who began their careers between 1993 through 2002, and follow their employment and scholarship for the first 10 years of their career. Across all journal publications, tenured faculty publish more frequently, are cited with roughly the same frequency, and place in comparable caliber of journal. These productivity gains, however, largely disappear when excluding solicited publications. These results suggest that legal academics continue to produce after tenure, but channel more of their efforts toward less competitive outlets.
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Sleepwalking through School: New Evidence on Sleep and Academic Achievement
Joseph Sabia, Kurt Wang & Resul Cesur
Contemporary Economic Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Policymakers advocating for later school starting times argue that increased sleep duration may generate important schooling benefits. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, this study examines the relationship between sleep duration and academic performance, while carefully controlling for difficult-to-measure characteristics at the family and individual levels. We find that increased sleep time is associated with improvements in classroom concentration as well as increased educational attainment. However, we also find evidence of diminishing returns to increased sleep. We estimate an “academic optimum” number of sleep hours of, on average, 8.5 hours per night. Turning to sleep quality, we find that the onset of insomnia-like symptoms is associated with diminished contemporaneous academic concentration, but little change in long-run educational attainment.
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Bias against Novelty in Science: A Cautionary Tale for Users of Bibliometric Indicators
Jian Wang, Reinhilde Veugelers & Paula Stephan
NBER Working Paper, April 2016
Abstract:
Research which explores unchartered waters has a high potential for major impact but also carries a higher uncertainty of having impact. Such explorative research is often described as taking a novel approach. This study examines the complex relationship between pursuing a novel approach and impact. Viewing scientific research as a combinatorial process, we measure novelty in science by examining whether a published paper makes first time ever combinations of referenced journals, taking into account the difficulty of making such combinations. We apply this newly developed measure of novelty to all Web of Science research articles published in 2001 across all scientific disciplines. We find that highly novel papers, defined to be those that make more (distant) new combinations, deliver high gains to science: they are more likely to be a top 1% highly cited paper in the long run, to inspire follow on highly cited research, and to be cited in a broader set of disciplines. At the same time, novel research is also more risky, reflected by a higher variance in its citation performance. In addition, we find that novel research is significantly more highly cited in “foreign” fields but not in its “home” field. We also find strong evidence of delayed recognition of novel papers and that novel papers are less likely to be top cited when using a short time window. Finally, novel papers typically are published in journals with a lower than expected Impact Factor. These findings suggest that science policy, in particular funding decisions which rely on traditional bibliometric indicators based on short-term direct citation counts and Journal Impact Factors, may be biased against “high risk/high gain” novel research. The findings also caution against a mono-disciplinary approach in peer review to assess the true value of novel research.
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Making Connections: Replicating and Extending the Utility Value Intervention in the Classroom
Chris Hulleman et al.
Journal of Educational Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
We replicated and extended prior research investigating a theoretically guided intervention based on expectancy-value theory designed to enhance student learning outcomes (e.g., Hulleman & Harackiewicz, 2009). First, we replicated prior work by demonstrating that the utility value intervention, which manipulated whether students made connections between the course material and their lives, increased both interest and performance of low-performing students in a college general education course. Second, we extended prior research by both measuring and manipulating one possible pathway of intervention effects: the frequency with which students make connections between the material and their lives. In Study 1, we measured connection frequency and found that making more connections was positively related to expecting to do well in the course, valuing the course material, and continuing interest. In Study 2, we manipulated connection frequency by developing an enhanced utility value intervention designed to increase the frequency with which students made connections. The results indicated that students randomly assigned to either utility value intervention, compared with the control condition, subsequently became more confident that they could learn the material, which led to increased course performance. The utility value interventions were particularly effective for the lowest-performing students. Compared with those in the control condition who showed a steady decline in performance across the semester, low-performing male students randomly assigned to the utility value conditions increased their performance across the semester. The difference between the utility value and control conditions for low-performing male students was strongest on the final exam (d = .76).
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Martin Carnoy et al.
American Educational Research Journal, August 2016, Pages 1054-1085
Abstract:
International assessments, such as the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), are being used to recommend educational policies to improve student achievement. This study shows that the cross-sectional estimates behind such recommendations may be biased. We use a unique data set from one country that applied the PISA mathematics test in 2012 in ninth grade to all students who had taken the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Survey (TIMSS) test in 2011 and collected information on students’ teachers in ninth grade. These data allowed us to more precisely estimate the effects of classroom variables on students’ PISA performance. Our results suggest that the positive roles of teacher “quality” and “opportunity to learn” in improving student performance are much more modest than claimed in PISA documents.
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Dynamic Effects of Teacher Turnover on the Quality of Instruction
Eric Hanushek, Steven Rivkin & Jeffrey Schiman
NBER Working Paper, July 2016
Abstract:
It is widely believed that teacher turnover adversely affects the quality of instruction in urban schools serving predominantly disadvantaged children, and a growing body of research investigates various components of turnover effects. The evidence at first seems contradictory, as the quality of instruction appears to decline following turnover despite the fact that most work shows higher attrition for less effective teachers. This raises concerns that confounding factors bias estimates of transition differences in teacher effectiveness, the adverse effects of turnover or both. After taking more extensive steps to account for nonrandom sorting of students into classrooms and endogenous teacher exits and grade-switching, we replicate existing findings of adverse selection out of schools and negative effects of turnover in lower-achievement schools. But we find that these turnover effects can be fully accounted for by the resulting loss in experience and productivity loss following the reallocation of some incumbent teachers to different grades.
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The Productivity Costs of Inefficient Hiring Practices: Evidence From Late Teacher Hiring
John Papay & Matthew Kraft
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Fall 2016, Pages 791–817
Abstract:
We use matched employee–employer records from the teacher labor market to explore the effects of late teacher hiring on student achievement. Hiring teachers after the school year starts reduces student achievement by 0.042 SD in mathematics and 0.026 SD in reading. This reflects, in part, a temporary disruption effect in the first year. In mathematics, but not in reading, late-hired teachers remain persistently less effective, evidence of negative selection in the teacher labor market. Late hiring concentrates in schools that disproportionately serve disadvantaged student populations, contributing to challenges in ensuring an equitable distribution of educational resources for all students.
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Bonnie Fox Garrity & Roger Fiedler
Public Organization Review, September 2016, Pages 371-389
Abstract:
This study highlights the changes that have occurred at postsecondary institutions after conversion from not-for-profit to for-profit control. Using Delta Cost Project Data and a pre-post study design with a control group of not-for-profit institutions that did not convert, comparisons are drawn. The findings suggest that institutions that convert experience greater enrollment growth, a decline in fulltime employment levels per full time equivalent (FTE) student, no change in average expenses per FTE student, a decrease in total revenue, a decrease in Pell Grants received, a decrease in tuition and fees revenue, and a decline in average subsidy per student post conversion. These findings are critical to the creation of informed policy decisions regarding institutional conversions.
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The Impact of Mass Layoffs on the Educational Investments of Working College Students
Ben Ost, Weixiang Pan & Douglas Webber
Temple University Working Paper, July 2016
Abstract:
Analyzing how working students weather personal economic shocks is increasingly important as the fraction of college students working substantial hours has increased dramatically over the past few decades. Using administrative data on Ohio college students linked to matched firm-worker data on earnings, we examine how layoff affects the educational outcomes of working college students. Theoretically, layoff decreases the opportunity cost of college enrollment, but it could also make financing one's education more difficult, so the net effect is ambiguous. We find that layoff leads to a considerable reduction in the probability of employment while in school, but it has little impact on enrollment decisions at the extensive margin. On the intensive margin, we find that layoff leads to an increase in enrolled credits, consistent with the fact that the opportunity cost of college has decreased.