Something stinks
The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone
Jesse Burkhardt et al.
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
We estimate the effect of short-term air pollution exposure (PM2.5 and ozone) on several categories of crime, with a particular emphasis on aggressive behavior. To identify this relationship, we combine detailed daily data on crime, air pollution, and weather for an eight-year period across the United States. Our primary identification strategy employs extremely high dimensional fixed effects and we perform a series of robustness checks to address confounding variation between temperature and air pollution. We find a robust positive effect of increased air pollution on violent crimes, and specifically assaults, but no relationship between increases in air pollution and property crimes. The effects are present in and out of the home, at levels well below Ambient Air Pollution Standards, and PM2.5 effects are strongest at lower temperatures. The results suggest that a 10% reduction in daily PM2.5 and ozone could save $1.4 billion in crime costs per year, a previously overlooked cost associated with pollution.
Environmental pollution is associated with increased risk of psychiatric disorders in the US and Denmark
Atif Khan et al.
PLoS Biology, August 2019
Abstract:
The search for the genetic factors underlying complex neuropsychiatric disorders has proceeded apace in the past decade. Despite some advances in identifying genetic variants associated with psychiatric disorders, most variants have small individual contributions to risk. By contrast, disease risk increase appears to be less subtle for disease-predisposing environmental insults. In this study, we sought to identify associations between environmental pollution and risk of neuropsychiatric disorders. We present exploratory analyses of 2 independent, very large datasets: 151 million unique individuals, represented in a United States insurance claims dataset, and 1.4 million unique individuals documented in Danish national treatment registers. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) county-level environmental quality indices (EQIs) in the US and individual-level exposure to air pollution in Denmark were used to assess the association between pollution exposure and the risk of neuropsychiatric disorders. These results show that air pollution is significantly associated with increased risk of psychiatric disorders. We hypothesize that pollutants affect the human brain via neuroinflammatory pathways that have also been shown to cause depression-like phenotypes in animal studies.
Environmental disaster, pollution and infant health: Evidence from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
Louis-Philippe Beland & Sara Oloomi
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
In 2010 the Gulf Coast experienced the largest oil spill affecting U.S. waters in history. Evaporating crude oil and dispersant chemicals can cause major health problems. This paper examines the impact of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on air quality and infant health outcomes. Using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) AirData, vital statistics data from National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), and a difference-in-difference methodology, we find that the oil spill of 2010 increased concentrations of PM2.5, NO2, SO2, and CO in affected coastal counties, increased incidence of low birth weight (<2500 g) and premature born infants (<37 weeks of gestation). Heterogeneity effects reveal more pronounced adverse infant health outcomes for black, Hispanic, less educated, unmarried, and younger mothers. Results are robust to a wide range of controls and robustness checks.
The Morbidity Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Spending on Chronic Respiratory Conditions
Austin Williams & Daniel Phaneuf
Environmental and Resource Economics, October 2019, Pages 571–603
Abstract:
Medical expenditures on respiratory ailments such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exceed $75 billion annually in the US, and research demonstrates that exposure to air pollution can exacerbate symptoms from these diseases. How much of this spending is attributable to air pollution, and what are the welfare consequences of pollution-induced changes in expenditures? Despite the enormous scale of spending on respiratory diseases, there is little research in economics examining these questions related to morbidity. In this paper, we link household level data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to concentrations of particulate matter across 23 US metropolitan areas for the years 1999–2003. Using an extensive set of fixed effects and an instrumental variables strategy, we find that a standard deviation increase in fine particulate matter increases spending on asthma and COPD by 12.7%. Our theoretical framing implies a lower bound willingness to pay for a reduction of this size that exceeds $9 billion annually.
Decline of the North American avifauna
Kenneth Rosenberg et al.
Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Species extinctions have defined the global biodiversity crisis, but extinction begins with loss in abundance of individuals that can result in compositional and functional changes of ecosystems. Using multiple and independent monitoring networks, we report population losses across much of the North American avifauna over 48 years, including once common species and from most biomes. Integration of range-wide population trajectories and size estimates indicates a net loss approaching 3 billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance. A continent-wide weather radar network also reveals a similarly steep decline in biomass passage of migrating birds over a recent 10-year period. This loss of bird abundance signals an urgent need to address threats to avert future avifaunal collapse and associated loss of ecosystem integrity, function and services.
Rapid increase in Asian bottles in the South Atlantic Ocean indicates major debris inputs from ships
Peter Ryan et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
Most plastic debris floating at sea is thought to come from land-based sources, but there is little direct evidence to support this assumption. Since 1984, stranded debris has been recorded along the west coast of Inaccessible Island, a remote, uninhabited island in the central South Atlantic Ocean that has a very high macrodebris load (∼5 kg•m−1). Plastic drink bottles show the fastest growth rate, increasing at 15% per year compared with 7% per year for other debris types. In 2018, we examined 2,580 plastic bottles and other containers (one-third of all debris items) that had accumulated on the coast, and a further 174 bottles that washed ashore during regular monitoring over the course of 72 d (equivalent to 800 bottles•km−1•y−1). The oldest container was a high-density polyethylene canister made in 1971, but most were polyethylene terephthalate drink bottles of recent manufacture. Of the bottles that washed up during our survey, 90% were date-stamped within 2 y of stranding. In the 1980s, two-thirds of bottles derived from South America, carried 3,000 km by the west wind drift. By 2009, Asia had surpassed South America as the major source of bottles, and by 2018, Asian bottles comprised 73% of accumulated and 83% of newly arrived bottles, with most made in China. The rapid growth in Asian debris, mainly from China, coupled with the recent manufacture of these items, indicates that ships are responsible for most of the bottles floating in the central South Atlantic Ocean, in contravention of International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships regulations.
Productivity Spillovers From Pollution Reduction: Reducing Coal Use Increases Crop Yields
Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Aaron Smith
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Air pollution reduces crop yields by slowing down photosynthesis. We estimate the increase in US corn and soybean yields attributed to the recent dramatic reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from electric power plants. In response to the observed changes in power plant NOx emissions over the eight-year period from 2003–05 to 2011–13, we estimate that average corn yields improved by 2.46% and soybean yields by 1.62%. These improvements imply an increase in total surplus of $1.60 billion annually across the two crops. The estimated yield improvements vary substantially across states depending on the change in NOx emissions. For corn, they range from 0.32% to 6.87% and for soybeans, they range from 0.21% to 4.30%. The demand for the two crops is quite inelastic, which means that prices decrease by more than production increases in response to this positive productivity shock and the implied rightward shift of the crop supply curve. Due to the low elasticities of supply and demand for U.S. corn and soybeans, we conclude from a welfare analysis that these changes made consumers better off and farmers worse off.
Do Property Rights Alleviate the Problem of the Commons? Evidence from California Groundwater Rights
Andrew Ayres, Kyle Meng & Andrew Plantinga
NBER Working Paper, September 2019
Abstract:
Property rights are widely prescribed for addressing the tragedy of the commons, yet causal evidence of their effectiveness remains elusive. This paper combines theory and empirics to produce a causal estimate of the net benefit of using property rights to manage groundwater. We develop a model of dynamic groundwater extraction to demonstrate how a spatial regression discontinuity design exploiting an incomplete property rights setting can recover a lower bound on the value of property rights. We apply this estimator to a major aquifer in water-stressed southern California, finding groundwater property rights led to substantial net benefits, as capitalized in land values. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that gains arise in part from the tradeability of property rights, enabling more efficient water use across sectors.
Fuel for Economic Growth?
Johan Gars & Conny Olovsson
Journal of Economic Theory, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using data for 134 countries, we document that countries deriving a larger share of their energy from fossil fuel are richer and grow faster. We then set up an endogenous growth model where final output is produced with a non-energy and two substitutable energy intermediate goods: fossil fuel and biofuel. With non-energy and energy goods being gross complements, and with higher costs for improving the energy efficiency for biofuel than for fossil fuel, there exist two balanced growth paths: one with low growth where energy is derived from biofuel and one with high growth where energy is sourced from fossil fuel. Heterogeneity in initial technology levels can generate the Great Divergence. The demand for fossil fuel in technologically advanced countries drives up its price, thereby reducing demand for fossil fuel in less advanced countries that instead choose the more stagnant energy input.
The roles of energy markets and environmental regulation in reducing coal‐fired plant profits and electricity sector emissions
Joshua Linn & Kristen McCormack
RAND Journal of Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Between 2005 and 2015, US electricity sector emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide, which harm human health and the environment, declined by two thirds, and many coal‐fired power plants became unprofitable and retired. Intense public controversy has focused on these changes, but the literature has not identified their underlying causes. Using a new electricity sector model of the US eastern interconnection that accurately reproduces unit operation, emissions, and retirement, we find that electricity consumption and natural gas prices account for nearly all the coal plant profitability declines and resulting retirements. Environmental regulations had little effect on these outcomes.