Signs of the Times
End of world beliefs are common, diverse, and predict how people perceive and respond to global risks
Matthew Billet et al.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do you believe the world will come to an end within your lifetime, and does that belief change the way you see existential threats to humanity? One third of Americans answer yes to the first question; we venture to answer the second question here. Stories about the end of the world are historically and globally prevalent and come in many flavors. End of world beliefs have been hypothesized to shape processes of risk perception and social behavior that have implications for how societies respond to existential threats. Despite their cultural significance, current understanding of the psychology of these beliefs is lacking. In this article, we present the results of six pilot studies (N = 2,079) and one preregistered study (N = 1,409) that establish a psychological framework for end of world beliefs. A measure of end of world beliefs was created and validated across six religious populations (Catholics, Mainline Protestants, Evangelical Protestants, Jews, Muslims, and nonreligious). We find that end of world beliefs are common, vary along psychologically meaningful dimensions, and are uniquely predictive of people’s risk perception, risk tolerance, and willingness to support extreme action to address the five most pressing global existential risks (i.e., economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological). Results are interpreted in light of current models of risk perception and the cultural evolution of worldviews. Aligning with sociological and historical accounts, we argue that belief in apocalyptic narratives -- irrespective of their accuracy -- is consequential for how populations confront concrete risks, including those that threaten humanity today.
Intelligence and counterintelligence in the career of the Islamic Prophet Muḥammad
Joel Hayward
Intelligence and National Security, forthcoming
Abstract:
The study of Muḥammad’s exploitation of intelligence has received surprisingly limited analysis in scholarship. Biographers have long acknowledged that information -- whether from scouts, spies, or informal tribal networks -- played a role in Muḥammad’s campaigns, yet intelligence has usually had a marginal position within broader narratives of his public life, especially in English. This article argues that intelligence must be placed much closer to the center of any understanding of Muḥammad’s statecraft and warfare. Far from being an incidental or ad hoc feature of his leadership, intelligence constituted one of the structural pillars of his political and military success.
Becoming “Co-ed”: A Protestant Gift to China
Ningning Ma, Se Yan & Yiling Zhao
Peking University Working Paper, December 2025
Abstract:
Until the arrival of Protestant missionaries in the 19th century, women in China had little access to formal education. The Protestant missionaries built the first school, the first college, and the first medical school that admitted women, thereby opening up women's pathways to higher education and professional services. Using various measures of Protestant activities by 1920 and college yearbooks published in 1928-1935, we find that the Protestant missions exerted significant impact on narrowing gender inequality in higher education. We suggest that this effect came through two channels: providing women-inclusive secondary education and affecting norms among their converts. Additionally, we find that the increase in educational attainment led to a higher number of female doctors and civil servants in the short run and a higher gender ratio in skilled occupations in the long run.
Attitudes Towards Members of Religious Groups: Considering the Role of a Scientific Worldview
Christopher Scheitle & Katie Corcoran
Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, forthcoming
Abstract:
Past research has identified several factors, such as social ties, that can influence an individual's attitudes towards a particular religious group. This study extends this literature to consider the role of a scientific worldview in shaping attitudes towards different religious groups. In addition to expanding the literature on religious tolerance, this study advances the social scientific study of religion and science in two ways. First, unlike much research that has considered conflict between religion and science in purely abstract or institutional terms, this study considers how such conflict could impact interpersonal interactions and relationships. Second, unlike much research in this area that has operationalized religion in a generic sense, this study assesses how a scientific worldview influences attitudes towards specific religious groups. Our analysis of survey data collected with a probability sample of US adults finds that, net of other factors, a scientific worldview is negatively associated with personal attitudes towards Christians and Jews, unassociated with attitudes towards Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists, and positively associated with attitudes towards atheists.
Atheism and Agnosticism in Twenty-First-Century China
Ryan Hornbeck et al.
Sociology of Religion, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article reports findings from a multi-method study of atheism and agnosticism -- grouped here as nontheism -- in contemporary China, conducted as part of a research program exploring the nature and varieties of nontheism across six countries. We find that, unlike the naturalistic and antireligious forms of atheism prominent in many Western contexts, nontheism in China is characterized by high engagement with supernatural beliefs, low antireligious sentiment, and weak attachment to explicitly nontheistic worldviews and identities. When Chinese nontheists self-identify as atheists, such identification often appears situational, strategic, and linked to social or political expectations. We argue that nontheism in China tends to operate less as an ideological stance and more as a pragmatic orientation embedded in social relationships and instrumental concerns. This mode of nontheism, we suggest, reflects a sociocultural environment in which nontheists generally face little pressure or incentive to develop strong nontheistic positions, aside from the occasional need to signal adherence to state-endorsed atheism.
Why Are Young Men Increasingly Drawn to Christianity? A Study of Finnish Young Men
Kati Tervo-Niemelä & Pietari Hannikainen
Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, forthcoming
Abstract:
Recent surveys in the Global North suggest a possible reversal in established gender patterns of religiosity, with young men increasingly engaging with Christianity. This study examines this development in Finland, a highly secular country, drawing on qualitative individual and small-group interviews with 30 men attracted to Christianity. Our analysis identifies multiple, overlapping reasons for this engagement. Some reflect long-standing religious functions, such as the search for community and meaning, particularly in times of personal crisis. At the same time, the findings highlight time-specific factors shaping contemporary interest in Christianity, including experiences of societal fragmentation and insecurity, perceived moral and cultural uncertainty, and ongoing debates about masculinity and gender roles. Christianity was often framed as countercultural, offering structure, responsibility, and stable role models in contrast to relativism and individualism that were seen to characterize the society in general. In addition, digital media and online religious content played an important role in initiating and sustaining interest in Christianity. The study contributes to debates on secularization, gender, and youth religiosity by showing how young men draw on faith to construct alternative identities in a late-modern, Global North context.
The weakness of anti-Christian nationalism: When religiously inclusive orientations can’t increase tolerance
Paul Djupe & Brooklyn Walker
Politics and Religion, March 2026, Pages 166-183
Abstract:
Efforts to counter Christian nationalism focus on the power of ideas -- that Christian nationalism is historically inaccurate, religiously heretical, or even fascist. Those efforts build upon a vast research agenda on Christian nationalism in the social sciences to argue, at least implicitly, that a Christian nationalist worldview rejects religious, racial, and political pluralism in favor of a (white) Christian-centric goal for the United States. But they may be wrong on at least one account. In a January 2024 survey of 1,500 American Christians, we piloted “anti-Christian nationalism” measures, expecting to find a robust negative relationship with established measures of Christian nationalism. Instead, we find that many Christian nationalists already hold pluralist ideas in their heads. We then explore whether anti-Christian nationalism can work to counter, moderate, or align attitudes with Christian nationalism on political tolerance. We find that Christian nationalism often overrules anti-Christian nationalism, especially when the threat is high.
Extremophile survives the transient pressures associated with impact-induced ejection from Mars
Lily Zhao et al.
PNAS Nexus, March 2026
Abstract:
Large-scale impacts are ubiquitous in the solar system, and the likelihood of survival of organisms after an impact event plays a key role in planetary protection, the search for extraterrestrial life, and the assessment of the panspermia hypothesis. Impacts generate very high stresses for short times, resulting in extreme pressures and high rates of loading. Can microorganisms survive such extreme conditions? Directly assessing the resilience of microorganisms subjected to impact stresses has been difficult because of challenges in experimental design for these extreme conditions, together with the choices of biological model system. Here, we describe an experimental approach that allows us to subject microorganisms to controlled extreme pressures for short times, recover these impacted microorganisms, and then assess their rates of survival, structural damage, and their molecular response to these extreme events. We focused on Deinococcus radiodurans, an extremophile that is known to survive space-like conditions. Our results suggested that microorganisms can survive much more extreme conditions than previously thought, potentially surviving conditions that result in the formation of ejecta that can move across planetary systems. We demonstrated that the extremophile D. radiodurans has remarkably high survivability and viability after being subjected to pressures of up to 3 GPa. As the pressure increases, D. radiodurans exhibited indicators of increased biological stress, as determined by the transcriptional analysis of impacted samples. The work has significant consequences for considerations of planetary protection, spacecraft mission design, our understanding of where we might find extraterrestrial life, and lithopanspermia.