Safety in numbers
Public Mass Murderers and Federal Mental Health Background Checks for Firearm Purchases
James Silver, William Fisher & John Horgan
Law & Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
The litany of public mass murders, from Aurora, Newtown, Charleston, Las Vegas, and Parkland to less well-known incidents that occur yearly, has focused national attention on federally mandated mental health background checks of prospective gun purchasers. The call has been to put more gun-disqualifying mental health records into the Instant Criminal Background Check System database to prevent “deranged” murderers from buying guns and running amok. Our study examines whether increasing the robustness of the mental health background database will likely prevent potential public mass murderers from buying guns. Building on research that shows that serious mental illness contributes little to the risk of interpersonal violence and, further, that few persons with serious mental illness acquire gun-disqualifying mental health records, we examine whether public mass murderers are among the small percentage of those with serious mental illness who do have gun-disqualifying mental health records. Using a large sample of 106 US offenders who used a firearm to commit a public mass murder from 1990 to 2014, we find that half of the offenders had a history of mental illness or mental health treatment but that less than 5% had gun-disqualifying mental health records. Implications of these findings and recommendations for further research are discussed.
Can You Build a Better Cop? Experimental Evidence on Supervision, Training, and Policing in the Community
Emily Owens et al.
Criminology & Public Policy, February 2018, Pages 41–87
Abstract:
By drawing from psychology and economics, we present an experimental evaluation of a procedural justice training program designed to “slow down” police officers’ thought processes during citizen encounters. We find that officers who were randomly assigned to participate in training were as engaged in the community as similarly situated officers, but they were less likely to resolve incidents with an arrest or to be involved in incidents where force was used. These changes were most evident among officers who worked in areas with a modest level of risk.
Paradoxical effects of self-awareness of being observed: Testing the effect of police body-worn cameras on assaults and aggression against officers
Barak Ariel et al.
Journal of Experimental Criminology, March 2018, Pages 19–47
Methods: A multisite randomized controlled trial in ten departments, with officers wearing (or not wearing) BWCs based on random assignment of shifts. Odds ratios are used to estimate the treatment effect on assaults, along with “one study removed” sensitivity analyses. Further subgroup analyses are performed in terms of varying degrees of officers’ discretion, to enhance the practical applications of this multisite experiment. Finally, before-analyses are applied as well, including Bootstrapping and Monte-Carlo simulations to further validate the results under stricter statistical conditions, to illustrate the overall effects.
Results: A total of 394 assaults per 1000 arrests occurred during 3637 treatment shifts (M = 39.35, SD = 17.89) compared with 284 assaults per 1000 arrests during 3697 control shifts (M = 28.38; SD = 15.99), which translate into 37% higher odds of assault in treatment shifts than in control conditions. The perverse direction and relative magnitude in each experimental site in eight out of ten sites were consistent. The backfiring treatment effect was substantially more pronounced in low discretion sites, i.e., where officers strongly followed the experimental protocol (OR = 2.565; 95% CI 1.792, 3.672). At the same time, before–after analyses show that assaults were overall reduced by 61% in the participating police departments, thus suggesting paradoxical effects.
Conclusions: We explain these findings using self-awareness theory. Once self-aware that their performance is being observed by BWCs, officers become at risk of being assaulted. Results suggest that under some circumstances, self-awareness can lead to excessive self-inspection that strips power-holders of their ability to function under extreme situations. This mechanism is potentially a function of “over-deterrence”. The study further demonstrates the benefits of applying psychosocial theories to the study of social control and deterrence theories more broadly, with a robust and falsifiable mechanism that explains the conditions under which being observed stimulates either appropriate or perverse consequences.
Do Ban the Box Laws Increase Crime?
Joseph Sabia et al.
NBER Working Paper, March 2018
Abstract:
Ban-the-box (BTB) laws, which prevent employers from asking prospective employees about their criminal histories at initial job screenings, have been adopted by 25 states and the District of Columbia. Using data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System, the Uniform Crime Reports, and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, this study is the first to estimate the effect of BTB laws on crime. We find some evidence that BTB laws are associated with an increase in property crime among working-age Hispanic men. This finding is consistent with employer-based statistical discrimination as well as potential moral hazard. A causal interpretation of our results is supported by placebo tests on policy leads and a lack of BTB-induced increases in crime for non-Hispanic whites and women. Finally, we find that BTB laws are associated with a reduction in property crime among older and white individuals, consistent with labor-labor substitution toward those with perceived lower probabilities of having criminal records (Doleac and Hansen 2017).
Police Incentives, Policy Spillovers, and the Enforcement of Drug Crimes
Gregory DeAngelo, Kaj Gittings & Amanda Ross
Review of Law & Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We consider the impact of a low priority initiative adopted in specific jurisdictions within Los Angeles (LA) County on police behavior. Low priority initiatives instruct police to make the enforcement of low level marijuana possession offenses their “lowest priority.” Using detailed data from the LA County Sheriff’s Department, a difference-in-differences strategy suggests that the mandate resulted in fewer arrests for misdemeanor marijuana possession in adopting areas relative to non-adopting. However, the lower relative reduction in marijuana arrests appears to be driven by an increase in misdemeanor marijuana arrests in nearby areas not affected by the mandate rather than a reduction in adopting areas. We interpret this result as suggestive evidence of policy spillovers from the low priority initiative.
The psychological impact of solitary: A longitudinal comparison of general population and long-term administratively segregated male inmates
Carly Chadick et al.
Legal and Criminological Psychology, forthcoming
Methods: Using a pre–post design, this study compared male general population (GP) inmates in the United States to those with up to 4 years in segregated placement across scores on the MCMI-III.
Results: While segregated inmates reported higher levels of distress (particularly on measures of anxiety, depressed mood, post-traumatic stress, and somatic complaints) compared to the GP at post-assessment, scores did not reach the clinical cut-off. Further, inmates generally did not deteriorate as time in restrictive housing increased.
Slipping Through the Cracks? The Impact of Reporting Mental Health Records to the National Firearm Background Check System
Fredrick Vars & Griffin Sims Edwards
University of Alabama Working Paper, February 2018
Abstract:
Both sides of the contentious debate over firearm regulation agree that some people with mental illness should be prohibited from purchasing firearms. This consensus exists despite limited empirical support. Such support will be essential to courts deciding the prohibition’s constitutionality. We assess the impact on homicide and suicide of states reporting mental health records to the national firearm background check system. Using panel data and a difference-in-differences methodology, we find that upon adding mental health records to the national system, states experienced a 3.3-4.3% decrease in firearm-related suicides with no evidence of substitution to non-firearm suicides. Our findings suggest that mental health restrictions on gun sales do effectively reduce suicide but not homicide.
The impact of work shift and fatigue on police officer response in simulated interactions with citizens
Lois James, Stephen James & Bryan Vila
Journal of Experimental Criminology, March 2018, Pages 111–120
Design: Using a quasi-experimental design, participants (n = 50) responded to multiple branching scenarios in a laboratory-housed use-of-force simulator. Each scenario had the potential to end peaceably or turn deadly, depending on how the officers responded. Officers who worked across four patrol shifts were tested on two occasions — after five consecutive shifts and again 72 h after completing their last shift.
Findings: Day-shift officers were less fatigued (measured using the Psychomotor Vigilance Test) than night-shift officers (f = 44.411; df = 1, 90; p < 0.001). Furthermore, officers were more fatigued when they were tested at the end of their work week than after 72 h off-duty (f = 12.030; df = 1, 90; p < 0.001). In the simulator, officers from the day shift were more likely to respond in ways that engineered cooperative outcomes (f = 4.81; df = 3, 549; p < 0.01).
Citywide cluster randomized trial to restore blighted vacant land and its effects on violence, crime, and fear
Charles Branas et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 20 March 2018, Pages 2946-2951
Abstract:
Vacant and blighted urban land is a widespread and potentially risky environmental condition encountered by millions of people on a daily basis. About 15% of the land in US cities is deemed vacant or abandoned, an area roughly the size of Switzerland. In a citywide cluster randomized controlled trial, we investigated the effects of standardized, reproducible interventions that restore vacant land on the commission of violence, crime, and the perceptions of fear and safety. Quantitative and ethnographic analyses were included in a mixed-methods approach to more fully test and explicate our findings. A total of 541 randomly sampled vacant lots were randomly assigned into treatment and control study arms; outcomes from police and 445 randomly sampled participants were analyzed over a 38-month study period. Participants living near treated vacant lots reported significantly reduced perceptions of crime (−36.8%, P < 0.05), vandalism (−39.3%, P < 0.05), and safety concerns when going outside their homes (−57.8%, P < 0.05), as well as significantly increased use of outside spaces for relaxing and socializing (75.7%, P < 0.01). Significant reductions in crime overall (−13.3%, P < 0.01), gun violence (−29.1%, P < 0.001), burglary (−21.9%, P < 0.001), and nuisances (−30.3%, P < 0.05) were also found after the treatment of vacant lots in neighborhoods below the poverty line. Blighted and vacant urban land affects people’s perceptions of safety, and their actual, physical safety. Restoration of this land can be an effective and scalable infrastructure intervention for gun violence, crime, and fear in urban neighborhoods.
The Myth of the Tech-Savvy Teen and the Clueless Senior Citizen: Revisiting Technology-Based Victimization Over the Life Course
Travis Pratt
Criminal Justice Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
It is a popular idea that younger people are more technology-savvy than their older counterparts. It is an equally popular idea that our oldest generation — senior citizens — is so clueless about new technological developments that they are the most vulnerable to technology-based forms of victimization. The present article, however, demonstrates that these ideas are myths and that it is the young — not the old — who are most at risk of victimization when technology is involved. This should come as no surprise since the age–victimization curve mirrors rather closely the age–crime curve, where the risk of victimization typically peaks in late adolescence and early adulthood and follows a steady decline thereafter. The risks associated with technologically based forms of victimization — at least in general — are no different. The implications of dispelling these myths for criminological research as we move forward are discussed in the context of the nature of “risky” behaviors at different stages of the life course.
Kingpin Approaches to Fighting Crime and Community Violence: Evidence from Mexico's Drug War
Jason Lindo & María Padilla-Romo
Journal of Health Economics, March 2018, Pages 253-268
Abstract:
This study considers the effects of the kingpin strategy, an approach to fighting organized crime in which law-enforcement efforts focus on capturing the leaders of criminal organizations, on community violence in the context of Mexico's drug war. Newly constructed historical data on drug-trafficking organizations’ areas of operation at the municipality level and monthly homicide data allow us to control for a rich set of fixed effects and to leverage variation in the timing of kingpin captures to estimate their effects. This analysis indicates that kingpin captures cause large and sustained increases to the homicide rate in the municipality of capture and smaller but significant effects on other municipalities where the kingpin's organization has a presence, supporting the notion that removing kingpins can have destabilizing effects throughout an organization that are accompanied by escalations in violence. We also find reductions in homicides in municipalities surrounding the municipality where kingpins are captured.
Human trafficking and the child welfare population in Florida
Deborah Gibbs et al.
Children and Youth Services Review, May 2018, Pages 1-10
Abstract:
Human trafficking victimization is frequently associated with child abuse or neglect and out-of-home placements. This article presents the largest study to date of human trafficking allegations within a child welfare context, and one of the few to compare children with allegations of human trafficking to others in the child welfare population. It uses state administrative data to examine 4413 allegations of sex and labor trafficking involving 3420 children. These children were more than twice as likely as others to have experienced prior maltreatment. Among children with prior child welfare experience, those with trafficking allegations were twice as likely to have experienced out-of-home placements, >5 times as likely to have experienced congregate care, and >10 times as likely to have run away from placements. Although these data cannot be interpreted as representing the true prevalence of human trafficking within the child welfare population, they expand our understanding of known victims, with associated implications for research, practice and policy.
Cellphone Legislation and Self-Reported Behaviors Among Subgroups of Adolescent U.S. Drivers
Toni Rudisill et al.
Journal of Adolescent Health, forthcoming
Purpose: The relationship between cellphone use while driving legislation and self-reported adolescent driver behavior is poorly understood, especially across demographic subgroups. This study investigated the relationship between statewide cellphone legislation and cellphone use behaviors across adolescent driver subgroups, including age (16/17 vs. 18), sex, race/ethnicity (white non-Hispanic and others), and rurality (urban or rural).
Methods: Data from the 2011–2014 Traffic Safety Culture Index Surveys were combined with state legislation. The outcomes were self-reported texting and handheld cellphone conversations. The exposure was the presence of a texting or handheld cellphone ban applicable to all drivers (i.e., universal) in the drivers' state of residence. A multilevel, modified Poisson regression model was used to estimate the risk of engaging in these behaviors.
Results: Approximately 34% of respondents reported to have driven while conversing, and 37% texted and drove in the 30 days before the survey. Universal handheld calling bans were associated with lower occurrences of cellphone conversations across all groups except rural drivers. Overall, handheld cellphone bans were associated with 55% lower (adjusted risk ratio .45, 95% confidence interval .32–.63) occurrences of cellphone conversations. However, universal texting bans were not associated with fewer texting behaviors in any subgroup.
Does Work Stress Change Personalities? Working in Prison as a Personality-Changing Factor Among Correctional Officers
Nina Suliman & Tomer Einat
Criminal Justice and Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
The study uses Behavioral Tendencies Scales tests to examine how employment as a correctional officer affects personality change, particularly neuroticism. We found a significant and conclusive increase in the neuroticism factor among correctional officers and a significant decrease in the comparison groups, as well as higher levels of neuroticism among longer serving officers than among newly employed officers. A significant increase in neuroticism was also revealed among correctional officers after 3 to 4 years of employment. Our findings led us to conclude that employment in prison is linked to changes in correctional officers’ personalities and levels of neuroticism, unlike the trend seen in the comparison groups and in that age group in the wider population. This highlights the distinctive and stressful nature of correctional facilities as a workplace that generates particular, negative personality changes.
Evaluating Community Prosecution Code Enforcement in Dallas, Texas
John Worrall & Andrew Wheeler
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
We evaluated a community prosecution program in Dallas, Texas. City attorneys, who in Dallas are the chief prosecutors for specified misdemeanors, were paired with code enforcement officers to improve property conditions in a number of proactive focus areas, or PFAs, throughout the city. We conducted a panel data analysis, focusing on the effects of PFA activity on crime in 19 PFAs over a six-year period (monthly observations from 2010 to 2015). Control areas with similar levels of pre-intervention crime were also included. Statistical analyses controlled for pre-existing crime trends, seasonality effects, and other law enforcement activities. With and without dosage data, the total crime rate decreased in PFA areas relative to control areas. City attorney/code enforcement teams, by seeking the voluntary or court-ordered abatement of code violations and criminal activity at residential and commercial properties, apparently improved public safety in targeted areas.
Collaborating to Reduce Violence: The Impact of Focused Deterrence in Kansas City
Andrew Fox & Kenneth Novak
Police Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
This research examines the impact of focused deterrence on homicide and gun violence in Kansas City, MO. In 2014, a coalition of police, prosecutors, city officials, researchers, and others implemented Kansas City No Violence Alliance, a focused deterrence violence reduction strategy. Using street-level intelligence and analysis, groups involved with violence were identified and notified of the consequences for future violent incidents. Leveraging existing social services, members opting for nonviolence were offered assistance. This study evaluates the impact on violence over 3 years of implementation. Using 2009–2016 police incident data on homicide (including group member involved homicide) and gun-involved aggravated assault, time series models were estimated to determine the effects of focused deterrence during 2014–2016. Analysis indicated that focused deterrence implementation resulted in an immediate reduction in homicides and gun-involved aggravated assaults. This effect began to diminish around the 12-month postintervention point. During the third year, overall and group member involved homicide numbers returned to preimplementation levels, and gun-involved aggravated assaults exceeded those levels. After achieving significant first-year reductions, despite robust implementation and fidelity, violence returned to preimplementation levels by the third year. Limitations to the focused deterrence model and the need for continuous evaluation and innovation are discussed.
Do Greater Sanctions Deter Youth Crime? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design
Nicholas Lovett & Yuhan Xue
University of Wisconsin Working Paper, September 2017
Abstract:
We exploit the discontinuous jump in criminal sanctions at the age of majority in conjunction with administrative data from California to generate regression discontinuity estimates of the deterrent effect. Estimates show that the greater severity imposed upon adolescents at age 18 deters violent crime by 10-12%. Results are robust to multiple techniques and specifications. Using these results, we estimate an elasticity of crime with respect to sanction intensity that ranges from -0.145 to -0.174. We extend our results to demographic sub-populations and find female offenders, as well as white and Asian offenders, are relatively more responsive to sanctions.
Civil Asset Forfeiture Laws and Equitable Sharing Activity by the Police
Jefferson Holcomb et al.
Criminology & Public Policy, February 2018, Pages 101–127
Abstract:
For several decades, critics have argued that civil forfeiture laws create incentives for law enforcement to increase departmental revenue by “policing for profit.” By using data on federal equitable sharing payments to nearly 600 local law enforcement agencies between 2000 and 2012, we examine the relationship between the characteristics of state forfeiture laws and equitable sharing payments to local agencies. Our results indicate that agencies in states with state laws that are more restrictive or less rewarding to police collect more in federal equitable sharing. This finding supports the critics’ argument that police behavior in regard to forfeiture activities is influenced by the financial rewards and burdens involved.
The thief’s wages: Theft and human capital development
Geoffrey Williams
Oxford Economic Papers, April 2018, Pages 443–467
Abstract:
In this paper, a model is developed to investigate whether theft can be economically rational. It is shown that heterogeneity in capital accumulation rates (or ‘learning ability’) cannot create any noticeable difference in incentives to steal. Further heterogeneity in instantaneous opportunity cost is both too low and runs in the wrong direction to have any explanatory role. However, heterogeneity in discount rates in combination with differences in initial human capital can create an incentive for theft. The model is calibrated from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1997 with data from 1997 to 2011.
Does Treatment Quality Matter? Multilevel Examination of the Effects of Intervention Quality on Recidivism of Adolescents Completing Long-Term Juvenile Justice Residential Placement
Michael Baglivio et al.
Criminology & Public Policy, February 2018, Pages 147–180
Abstract:
The Florida Department of Juvenile Justice has implemented a process to evaluate the treatment quality of interventions provided statewide in all long-term residential programs. In the current study, we examine the predictive validity of this treatment quality component in the prediction of recidivism of youth (N = 2,397) who completed juvenile justice residential programs from July 1, 2013 to June 30, 2014. We use hierarchical linear modeling to assess the effects of treatment quality (as youth are nested within programs), controlling for demographic and criminal history factors. The results indicate that higher average treatment quality scores of interventions received within a residential program decreased the likelihood of subsequent arrest, conviction, and reincarceration, whereas the highest treatment quality score of any specific intervention provided within the program decreased the odds of reincarceration only.
The Falling Carbon Footprint of Acquisitive and Violent Offences
Helen Skudder et al.
British Journal of Criminology, 15 February 2018, Pages 351–371
Abstract:
Cutting carbon emissions, wherever they occur, is a global priority and those associated with crime are no exception. We show that between 1995 and 2015, the carbon footprint of acquisitive and violent crime has dropped by 62 per cent, a total reduction of 54 million tonnes CO2e throughout this period. Although the environmental harm associated with crime is likely to be considered lower in importance than social or economic impacts, a focus on reducing high carbon crimes (burglary and vehicle offences) and high carbon aspects of the footprint (the need to replace stolen/damaged property) could be encouraged. Failure to acknowledge these potential environmental benefits may result in crime prevention strategies being unsustainable and carbon reduction targets being missed.