Rules of Engagement
High-Level Visit and National Security Policy: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment in Taiwan
Austin Horng-En Wang et al.
International Interactions, forthcoming
Abstract:
Great powers often use high-level visits to reassure weaker states. The literature on public diplomacy shows that these visits can bring a number of advantages while overlooking their potential impact on increasing support for the great power’s security agenda and confidence in the host country’s defense policy and military. This note employed a quasi-experiment in Taiwan, in which three high-profile US Senators visited Taiwan unexpectedly during a one-week national survey (n = 1,500) in June 2021. Propensity score matching and regression discontinuity analysis showed that the visit significantly increased Taiwanese respondents’ confidence in their own military, the government’s security policy, and support for the security policy favored by the US (strengthening the Taiwanese military). Limitations, scope conditions, and suggestions for future work were also discussed.
Public Opinion and Nuclear Use: Evidence from Factorial Experiments
Tyler Bowen, Michael Goldfien & Matthew Graham
Journal of Politics, January 2023, Pages 345-350
Abstract:
Does the public oppose nuclear use? Survey experimental research varying either the advantages or the disadvantages of nuclear use has produced a wide range of results. Yet no study has examined how the military advantages and strategic and moral disadvantages of nuclear weapons interact. We explore this interaction and uncover a pattern that unifies the literature’s seemingly disparate results: the persuasive power of nuclear weapons’ military advantages is conditional on their disadvantages. We demonstrate this by independently randomizing both the advantages and disadvantages of nuclear use in (1) a 2 x 2 factorial version of an influential design and (2) a novel adaptation of conjoint experiments that focuses on the most plausible comparisons between nuclear and conventional strikes. Our results support a new explanation for why the public can appear rigidly opposed to nuclear strikes in some circumstances and highly permissive in others.
Looking back to look forward: Autonomous systems, military revolutions, and the importance of cost
Jacquelyn Schneider & Julia Macdonald
Journal of Strategic Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
Autonomous systems are often lauded as revolutionary. However, what makes them revolutionary is still up for debate. We identify assumptions about the revolutionary effect of autonomy and draw on historical work to examine how these characteristics have affected past conflicts. Our look at the past suggests where these systems may be most revolutionary is in cost mitigation -- both political and economic. Mitigating economic cost helps create mass, firepower, and resiliency while mitigating political cost allows states to control force with escalation risks and domestic support. This balance is key for states that rely on autonomous systems to win competition strategies.
The International Context of Democratic Backsliding: Rethinking the Role of Third Wave “Prodemocracy” Global Actors
David Samuels
Perspectives on Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We know much about “how democracies die”: elites and masses become polarized, and norms of mutual toleration, forbearance, and institutional restraint erode. But why do elites feel free to undermine these guardrails of democracy? What are the sources of backsliding? Answers to these questions have focused on the impact of economic and cultural change, and on autocratic meddling. I consider another potential source of backsliding around the world: the impact of the reconfiguration of global politics after the Cold War and 9/11 on politics in the main prodemocratic actors that Samuel Huntington highlighted in his book The Third Wave: the United States, the European Union, and the Vatican. Today, the international context gives leaders in these global powers relatively weaker incentives to stand up for democracy, even in the face of aggressive meddling from Russia and China. Changes in international politics has left democracy with weaker ideational support in the global arena, potentially facilitating backsliding.
Repression in China, Money from China, and Attitudes toward China
Jean Hong & Yusaku Horiuchi
University of Michigan Working Paper, December 2022
Abstract:
How does China's global economic engagement affect foreign public opinion about China at critical times, i.e., when the Chinese government uses repressive measures against its citizens? To examine this question, we analyze global surveys conducted just before and after repression incidents in China. We find that in aid-recipient countries, the foreign public becomes more supportive of China's political leaders after repression. The text analysis of local news content suggests a clue to this puzzling finding: In these countries, the sentiment of the articles becomes more positive toward China after repression. However, in the recipient countries of China's infrastructure investment loans, which have caused a "debt trap" problem in several places, the public becomes more critical after repression. These findings suggest that China's repression triggers the foreign public's increasing concern about, or praise for, China's influence abroad conditional on the nature of economic relationships with China.
Harnessing Backlash: How Leaders Can Benefit from Antagonizing Foreign Actors
Kelly Matush
British Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Leaders nearly always claim that their diplomatic campaigns are intended to attract foreign support. However, many diplomatic campaigns fail spectacularly in this regard. While these events have largely been explained as diplomatic failures, I argue that alienating the apparent target of an international diplomatic campaign can be a deliberate strategy leaders use to win domestic support. Under certain conditions, a costly backlash from a foreign actor can be a credible signal that the leader shares the domestic audience's preferences. Therefore, by intentionally provoking a backlash from a valuable foreign actor, leaders can exchange foreign condemnation for an increase in domestic support. I support this argument with evidence from Netanyahu's 2015 speech to the US Congress. I show that, as expected by this theoretical framework, Netanyahu's efforts resulted in a significant backlash among US Democrats and a corresponding increase of support among right-wing Israelis, a crucial constituency for his upcoming election.
Remembering a Road: How One U.S. Development Project Provides Insight into America’s Complicated Legacy in Afghanistan
Nicholas Melin
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, forthcoming
Abstract:
In 2009, the New York Times published a short article detailing how a local warlord in southern Afghanistan was receiving millions of dollars a month to “secure” a local highway for U.S. forces. What the article failed to note was that the road was built by United States Army and the United States Agency for International Development from 2004–2005 as the centerpiece of the U.S. counterinsurgency effort in Southern Afghanistan. The story of the road is one of optimistic U.S. construction, co-option by a local strongman, and ultimately security collapse and Taliban control. Analysis of the road construction effort and what occurred after it was completed reveals dynamics that impacted and ultimately derailed both the counterinsurgency effort in region through which the road ran and the broader U.S. effort in Afghanistan. It also provides lessons that should be retained and considered before the United States’ next effort to both defeat an adversary and reshape a society.
Surviving the Deluge: British Servicemen in World War I
Roy Bailey, Timothy Hatton & Kris Inwood
Economics & Human Biology, forthcoming
Abstract:
We estimate the correlates of death and injury in action during the First World War for a sample of 2,400 non-officer British servicemen who were born in the 1890s. Among these 13.1 percent were killed in action and another 23.5 percent were wounded. Not surprisingly we find that the probability of death or wounding increases with time in the army and was higher among infantrymen. For a serviceman who enlisted in the infantry at the beginning of the war and continued in service, the probability of being killed in action was 29 percent and the probability of being either killed or wounded in action was 64 percent. We examine, for ordinary soldiers, the hypothesis that death and injury was more likely for those from higher socioeconomic backgrounds as is suggested in the literature on the ‘lost generation’. While such selectivity applies when comparing officers with other ranks it does not apply among the ordinary soldiers who comprised 95 percent of the army.
Without an army: How ICC indictments reduce atrocities
Andrew Cesare Miller
Journal of Peace Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do International Criminal Court (ICC) indictments reduce atrocities? The ICC convicting only ten perpetrators since its founding in 2002 has generated skepticism of the court’s ability to prevent attacks against civilians. Drawing on the criminal violence literature, this article applies the concept of assurance to explain how the ICC reduces atrocities despite its limited capacity. As with criminal organizations facing domestic indictments, armed groups affiliated with ICC indictees often (mis)perceive that the indictments come with assurance: that is, inductee-affiliated groups believe that they can alleviate the costs imposed by indictments if they refrain from further attacks. I test the effect of ICC indictments on violence using the weighted regression method generalized synthetic control to mitigate empirical challenges posed by endogeneity and data unreliability. The results indicate that indictments lead to a substantial initial decline in attacks against civilians by armed groups affiliated with indictees, but the attacks return to pre-indictment levels when indictees face sustained punishment from the court. Descriptive cases of ICC indictments against alleged perpetrators in Uganda and Kenya are used to illustrate the role of assurance. These findings imply that the ICC might reduce violence by engaging in plea bargains and other negotiated settlements – tools commonly employed by domestic prosecutors fighting criminal organizations.