Rocked by the Vote
Trump on the Trail: Assessing the Impact of Presidential Campaign Visits on Voting Behavior in the 2018 Midterm Elections
Alan Abramowitz & Costas Panagopoulos
Presidential Studies Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
In this article, we examine the impact of President Donald Trump's visits on the campaign trail in the November 2018 midterm elections. We find that President Trump's visits failed to either boost overall state‐level turnout or support for GOP U.S. Senate candidates in these elections. The results reinforce the notion that presidential capacity to influence voting behavior is limited, especially in an era of deep partisan polarization when partisan identity and other, more fundamental considerations shape vote choice and turnout decisions.
Be Careful What You Wish For: The Impacts of President Trump’s Midterm Endorsements
Andrew Ballard, Hans Hassell & Michael Heseltine
Legislative Studies Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
We analyze the effects of President Trump’s endorsements on House and Senate elections in 2018. Previous work has argued that presidential endorsements are usually positive or, at worst, neutral for the recipient candidates. We find that President Trump was more likely to endorse candidates with a higher pre‐endorsement likelihood of winning and to endorse candidates in more competitive races, suggesting the president used endorsements strategically both to try and help Republican candidates win and to boost his reputation for helping candidates win. However, while President Trump’s public endorsements provided a financial boost to endorsed candidates, they also increased donor support of opposing candidates and were ultimately detrimental to candidates’ vote shares and likelihood of winning. This work provides evidence for potential backlash effects among opposition voters in response to presidential endorsement in a nationalized political environment and expands our understanding of the impact of presidential campaigning in congressional midterm elections.
A disproportionate burden: Strict voter identification laws and minority turnout
John Kuk, Zoltan Hajnal & Nazita Lajevardi Politics,
Groups, and Identities, forthcoming
Abstract:
Critics of the recent proliferation of strict photo identification laws claim these laws impose a disproportionate burden on racial minorities. Yet, empirical studies of the impact of these laws on minority turnout have reached decidedly mixed results. State and federal courts have responded by offering mixed opinions about the legality of these laws. We offer a more rigorous test of these laws by focusing on more recent elections, by relying on official turnout data rather than surveys, and by employing a more sophisticated research design that assesses change over time using a difference-in-difference approach. Our analysis uses aggregate county turnout data from 2012 to 2016 and finds that the gap in turnout between more racially diverse and less racially diverse counties grew more in states enacting new strict photo ID laws than it did elsewhere. This analysis provides additional empirical evidence that strict voter ID laws appear to discriminate.
Promises and Perils of Mobile Voting
Anthony Fowler
Election Law Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
Voter turnout is often low and unequal, but the opportunity to vote on a mobile device could drastically lower the cost of democratic participation. In 2018, West Virginia became the first U.S. state to utilize mobile voting in a federal election, allowing it for overseas voters from 24 of its counties. I utilize this trial to assess the likely effects of mobile voting on the size and composition of the voting population. Implementing a differences-in-differences design with individual-level administrative data, I estimate that the ability to vote with a mobile device increased turnout by three to five percentage points, and I find little evidence that the effects vary across age, party, or military status. At the same time, new survey data shows that many Americans are understandably wary of online voting.
The Politics of Locating Polling Places: Race and Partisanship in North Carolina Election Administration, 2008-2016
Michael Shepherd et al.
Election Law Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do local election administrators change precincts and Election Day polling place locations to target voters based on their partisanship or race? We systematically evaluate whether decisions consistent with targeting occur using the near universe of eligible voters, polling place locations, and precinct boundaries across three presidential elections in the closely contested state of North Carolina. We find no evidence that local administrators allocate precincts and polling places in a manner consistent with partisan manipulation for electoral gain. Some counties appear to differentially target opposition party voters with these changes, but the county-level variation we document is likely due to random variation rather than deliberate manipulation. There is also little evidence that the removal of minority voter protections in Shelby County v. Holder impacted polling place placement. If partisan-motivated precinct or polling place decisions occur in North Carolina, they are seemingly more idiosyncratic than pervasive.
Rock the Vote or Block the Vote? How the Cost of Voting Affects the Voting Behavior of American Youth
Courtney Juelich & Joseph Coll
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Young voters make up the largest portion of the electorate but vote at the lowest rates of any age group. While scholars have studied how culture affects youth political participation, few studies have analyzed how institutional barriers affect youth voting - even though these laws have been found to affect turnout of other disadvantaged groups. Considering younger citizens are more likely to be non-habitual voters with less political knowledge, efficacy, and resources, it is possible that these laws have magnified effects for youths. This could explain why new voters, facing new restrictions to voting, are participating at lower percentages than youths of earlier cohorts. Using the 2004-2016 Current Population Survey (N = 360,000) and the Cost of Voting Index to test the effects of restrictive electoral environments on youth turnout, we find that restrictive environments disproportionately hurt young voters by decreasing the probability they turn out by 16 percentage points, compared with older voters.
Missing the mark? An exploration of targeted campaign advertising's effect on Black political engagement
Camille Burge, Julian Wamble & Chryl Laird Politics,
Groups, and Identities, May 2020, Pages 423-437
Abstract:
Extant scholarship on campaign advertising focuses on the effectiveness of microtargeting for Latinxs, women, and religious groups, spending little time on the efficacy of advertisements targeted towards Black Americans. In this paper, we examine the ways in which racially targeted advertisements shape perceptions of candidates and the subsequent political mobilization of Blacks. Using a novel survey experiment with approximately 1,410 Black respondents, we explore how Black individuals react to stereotypic appeals in campaign advertisements by manipulating the type of background music (i.e. rap, classical) as well as the race of the candidate making the appeal. We posit and find that the inclusion of rap music in the advertisement leads to negative evaluations of the candidate. Moreover, Black candidates that use rap music in advertisements seem to be doubly punished as increased levels of anger decrease support for the candidate and lead to more negative evaluations. This study adds to our knowledge by not only showing how Black individuals emotionally respond to certain targeted appeals, but also how they view the role and responsibility of potential representatives.
Rallying Around Toxic Trump? White Women’s Response to the 'Inject Disinfectant' Comment
Alexandra Filindra et al.
University of Illinois Working Paper, May 2020
Abstract:
This study explores whites’ response to Trump’s heavily criticized suggestion of injecting disinfectants as a treatment for COVID-19. Compared to men, socialization as caregivers and sensitivity to health threats may decrease white women’s intent to vote for Trump relative to Biden. Conversely, due to their caregiving role, white women may better recognize this comment and associated correction by experts as a threat to the President. In this case, white women may rally to Trump. Using a survey experiment, we find that exposure to a reminder about Trump’s comment and associated correction increases support for Trump among white women, but not white men. The effect is concentrated among independent white women. This suggests that gender may play a distinct role in rally effects.
Demographic Moderation of Spatial Voting in Presidential Elections
Lindsay Dun & Stephen Jessee
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using multiple large national surveys, we investigate how the relationship between policy-based ideology and vote choice in presidential elections differs across demographic groups. Specifically, we consider three key demographic characteristics: race, education, and gender. We find that large differences exist in the way ideology relates to presidential vote for voters from different racial groups. By contrast, we find quite small differences in this relationship when separating voters by education level. Perhaps most surprisingly, whereas men are on average more conservative than women, the relationship between ideology and presidential vote is estimated to be almost exactly the same for the two genders. The large sample sizes we employ allow for relatively precise estimation of these relationships even among our various demographic subsamples and these findings hold similarly across several recent presidential elections.
Does Household Finance Affect the Political Process? Evidence from Voter Turnout During a Housing Crisis
Ben McCartney
Review of Financial Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
I examine the effect of house price declines on voter participation using a novel person-level panel data set. Contrary to what the “angry voter hypothesis” predicts, I find that a 10% decline in local house prices decreases the participation rate of the average mortgaged homeowner by 1.6 percentage points. Consistent with a financial distress channel, house price declines have no effects on renters and particularly severe effects on highly leveraged households. My findings are consistent with the existence of a feedback loop between financial distress and inequality operating through voter participation.
Do Voters Prefer Just Any Descriptive Representative? The Case of Multiracial Candidates
Danielle Casarez Lemi
Perspectives on Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although scholars of representation have examined variation in voter support conditional on shared demographic traits, we know little about how voters respond to candidates who belong to multiple racial categories. Multiracial candidates challenge how we think about and study representation. I theorize that multiracial categories provide mixed information about how well a candidate adheres to group norms of identity, resulting in a multiracial advantage across groups, but a disadvantage within groups. A conjoint survey experiment on 786 White, Black, Asian, and Hispanic voters and a separate analysis of support for a multiracial candidate in a real-world election support these claims. Thus, multiracial candidates have the advantage of building coalitions with voters from other groups, but they are disadvantaged when appealing to co-racials with strong racial identities. These findings demonstrate that future research on representation must engage multiracial elites.
Just Locker Room Talk? Explicit Sexism and the Impact of the Access Hollywood Tape on Electoral Support for Donald Trump in 2016
Jesse Rhodes et al.
Political Communication, forthcoming
Abstract:
Scholars have long debated whether and to what extent citizens punish political candidates for explicitly racist rhetoric. However, few studies explore whether a similar dynamic occurs when explicitly sexist messages are conveyed on the campaign trail. Do citizens recoil when exposed to explicitly sexist messages? To investigate this question, we exploit the unique opportunity afforded by the release of the “Access Hollywood” tape during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. Using data provided by the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study and employing a variety of analytic approaches, we find consistent evidence that the release of the tape modestly, though significantly, reduced support for Donald Trump during the 2016 campaign. Surprisingly, these effects were similar among men and women, but they were noticeably larger among Republicans compared to Democrats.
Seeing Is Believing: An Experiment on Absentee Ballots and Voter Confidence
Lisa Bryant
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Since the 2000 election, researchers have taken an interest in the role of voter confidence and its importance as an assessment of public trust in electoral outcomes. Many factors may influence voter confidence including the way in which a voter casts their ballot. Previous research has found that absentee voters consistently report the lowest levels of confidence that their votes were counted correctly. This study uses an experiment to examine how voting method impacts voter confidence. Voters were randomly assigned to either an in-person or absentee voting condition. Participants assigned to the absentee condition expressed lower levels of confidence that their votes would be counted correctly than those assigned to the in-person voting condition. Voters who had to ask for assistance during the experiment also reported lower levels of confidence. This could have implications for voter confidence levels nationally as vote-by-mail continues to grow in popularity.