Rebels without a cause
The Effects of Asset Forfeiture on Policing: A Panel Approach
Brian Kelly & Maureen Kole
Economic Inquiry, forthcoming
Abstract:
Asset forfeiture has proven highly controversial in the United States since its expansion in 1984. Most contentious is the widespread policy that allows police agencies to keep the assets seized, which both proponents and critics assert changes police behavior. From newly developed panel data sets, we find some statistical support for the proposition that police agencies change the intensity and pattern of policing in response to forfeiture. However, in economic terms these effects are very weak and do not support the proposition that forfeiture provides vital funds and incentives for crime policing.
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Andrew Penner & Aliya Saperstein
Demography, June 2015, Pages 1017-1024
Abstract:
Scholars of race have stressed the importance of thinking about race as a multidimensional construct, yet research on racial inequality does not routinely take this multidimensionality into account. We draw on data from the U.S. National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to disentangle the effects of self-identifying as black and being classified by others as black on subsequently being arrested. Results reveal that the odds of arrest are nearly three times higher for people who were classified by others as black, even if they did not identify themselves as black. By contrast, we find no effect of self-identifying as black among people who were not seen by others as black. These results suggest that racial perceptions play an important role in racial disparities in arrest rates and provide a useful analytical approach for disentangling the effects of race on other outcomes.
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Stereotype Threat and Racial Differences in Citizens’ Experiences of Police Encounters
Cynthia Najdowski, Bette Bottoms & Phillip Atiba Goff
Law and Human Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
We conducted 2 studies to investigate how cultural stereotypes that depict Blacks as criminals affect the way Blacks experience encounters with police officers, expecting that such encounters induce Blacks to feel stereotype threat (i.e., concern about being judged and treated unfairly by police because of the stereotype). In Study 1, we asked Black and White participants to report how they feel when interacting with police officers in general. As predicted, Blacks, but not Whites, reported concern that police officers stereotype them as criminals simply because of their race. In addition, this effect was found for Black men but not Black women. In Study 2, we asked Black and White men to imagine a specific police encounter and assessed potential downstream consequences of stereotype threat. Consistent with Study 1, Black but not White men anticipated feeling stereotype threat in the hypothetical police encounter. Further, racial differences in anticipated threat translated into racial differences in anticipated anxiety, self-regulatory efforts, and behavior that is commonly perceived as suspicious by police officers. By demonstrating that Blacks might expect to be judged and treated unfairly by police because of the negative stereotype of Black criminality, this research extends stereotype threat theory to the new domain of criminal justice encounters. It also has practical implications for understanding how the stereotype could ironically contribute to bias-based policing and racial disparities in the justice system.
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Andres Rengifo & Don Stemen
Crime & Delinquency, June 2015, Pages 719-741
Abstract:
The authors use a pooled-time series design to examine the interplay between state incarceration rates, determinate sentencing, and the size of the African American population between 1978 and 2004. Consistent with prior research, findings show that larger Black populations are associated with higher incarceration rates but that this association has weakened over time. Results also indicate that determinate sentencing is associated with lower imprisonment rates. The interaction between a higher proportion of African American residents and determinate sentencing, however, is associated with higher incarceration rates, suggesting that in states with greater minority presence the abolition of discretionary parole amplifies the impact of punitive responses linked to racial threat. It is argued that this unintended effect reflects the fact that formal constraints on release decision making reduce the ability of justice systems to administer greater punishments to specific subpopulations.
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The Economics of Counterfeiting
Elena Quercioli & Lones Smith
Econometrica, May 2015, Pages 1211–1236
Abstract:
We develop a strategic theory of counterfeiting as a multi-market large game. Bad guys choose whether to counterfeit, and what quality to produce. Opposing them is a continuum of good guys who select a costly verification effort. In equilibrium, counterfeiters produce better quality at higher notes, but verifiers try sufficiently harder that verification still improves. We develop a graphical framework for deducing comparative statics. Passed and counterfeiting rates vanish for low and high notes. Our predictions are consistent with time series and cross-sectional patterns in a unique data set assembled largely from the Secret Service.
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School Suspension and the School-to-Prison Pipeline
Alison Evans Cuellar & Sara Markowitz
International Review of Law and Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Schools have many available strategies to address problem behavior among students. One option increasingly used by schools is to suspend problem youth and remove them for defined periods. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this type of disciplinary policy has unintended consequences by giving problem youth greater opportunity to commit crimes outside of school. Previous studies have looked at the “incapacitation” effect of school holidays and teacher strike days, but these studies do not directly address the relevant school policy decisions. The current study relies on administrative data from a school district and a juvenile justice system. The results indicate that out-of-school suspension may increase criminal offending behavior by problem youth, more than doubling the probability of arrest. The effect is particularly large among African American youth, relative to Whites.
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Housing Choice Voucher Holders and Neighborhood Crime: A Dynamic Panel Analysis from Chicago
Leah Hendey et al.
Urban Affairs Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
It is often alleged that households moving into neighborhoods with the aid of housing choice vouchers (HCVs) raise crime rates there. We use 1999–2008 quarterly data from Chicago census tracts to test this allegation with a dynamic panel model designed to overcome the challenges of omitted variable and endogeneity biases. We find no support for the proposition that growth in HCV holders leads to growth in violent crime rates, regardless of neighborhood context. We find that growth in HCV holders is positively associated with growth in property crime rates, however, in higher poverty neighborhoods or if HCVs exceed a threshold concentration.
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Daniel Tumminelli O’Brien & Robert Sampson
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, July 2015, Pages 486-510
Objectives: “Broken windows” theory is an influential model of neighborhood change, but there is disagreement over whether public disorder leads to more serious crime. This article distinguishes between public and private disorder, arguing that large-scale administrative data provide new opportunities to examine broken windows theory and alternative models of neighborhood change.
Method: We apply an ecometric methodology to two databases from Boston: 1,000,000+ 911 dispatches and indicators of physical disorder from 200,000+ requests for nonemergency services. Both distinguish between disorder in public and private spaces. A cross-lag longitudinal analysis was conducted using two full years of data (2011–2012).
Results: The two databases provided six dimensions of physical and social disorder and crime. The cross-lag model revealed eight pathways by which one form of disorder or crime in 2011 predicted a significant increase in another in 2012. Although traditional interpretations of broken windows emphasize the role of public disorder, private conflict most strongly predicted future crime.
Conclusions: Our results describe a social escalation model where future disorder and crime emerge not from public cues but from private disorder within the community, demonstrating how “big data” from administrative records, when properly measured and interpreted, represent a growing resource for studying neighborhood change.
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Alcohol misuse, firearm violence perpetration, and public policy in the United States
Garen Wintemute
Preventive Medicine, forthcoming
Objective: Firearm violence is a significant public health problem in the United States, and alcohol is frequently involved. This article reviews existing research on the relationships between alcohol misuse; ownership, access to, and use of firearms; and the commission of firearm violence, and discusses the policy implications of these findings.
Method: Narrative review augmented by new tabulations of publicly-available data.
Results: Acute and chronic alcohol misuse is positively associated with firearm ownership, risk behaviors involving firearms, and risk for perpetrating both interpersonal and self-directed firearm violence. In an average month, an estimated 8.9 to 11.7 million firearm owners binge drink. For men, deaths from alcohol-related firearm violence equal those from alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes. Enforceable policies restricting access to firearms for persons who misuse alcohol are uncommon. Policies that restrict access on the basis of other risk factors have been shown to reduce risk for subsequent violence.
Conclusion: The evidence suggests that restricting access to firearms for persons with a documented history of alcohol misuse would be an effective violence prevention measure. Restrictions should rely on unambiguous definitions of alcohol misuse to facilitate enforcement and should be rigorously evaluated.
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Firearm Ownership and Violent Crime in the U.S.: An Ecologic Study
Michael Monuteaux et al.
American Journal of Preventive Medicine, forthcoming
Introduction: Although some view the ownership of firearms as a deterrent to crime, the relationship between population-level firearm ownership rates and violent criminal perpetration is unclear. The purpose of this study is to test the association between state-level firearm ownership and violent crime.
Methods: State-level rates of household firearm ownership and annual rates of criminal acts from 2001, 2002, and 2004 were analyzed in 2014. Firearm ownership rates were taken from a national survey and crime data were taken from the Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime Reports. Rates of criminal behavior were estimated as a function of household gun ownership using negative binomial regression models, controlling for several demographic factors.
Results: Higher levels of firearm ownership were associated with higher levels of firearm assault and firearm robbery. There was also a significant association between firearm ownership and firearm homicide, as well as overall homicide.
Conclusions: The findings do not support the hypothesis that higher population firearm ownership rates reduce firearm-associated criminal perpetration. On the contrary, evidence shows that states with higher levels of firearm ownership have an increased risk for violent crimes perpetrated with a firearm. Public health stakeholders should consider the outcomes associated with private firearm ownership.
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Can Easing Concealed Carry Deter Crime?
David Fortunato
Social Science Quarterly, forthcoming
Objective: Laws reducing hurdles to legally carrying concealed firearms are argued to have a deterrent effect on crime by increasing its perceived costs. This argument rests on the assumption that these policies will either directly or indirectly increase the perceived distribution of firearm carriers, an assumption that is as yet untested. This article tests this assumption and, in so doing, suggests testing the necessary conditions of policy can be useful when assessing outcomes is difficult.
Methods: I collect survey data on the perceived number of firearm carriers across the United States and then use a hierarchical regression model to assess the impact of concealed carry policies on these perceptions, controlling for several contextual and individual-level factors.
Results: The data suggest that there is no statistically discernible relationship between concealed carry policies and the public's perceptions of the number of firearm carriers. Indeed, the data suggest that the perceived density of firearm carriers is similarly uncorrelated to the number of active concealed carriers.
Conclusion: The link between concealed carry policy and people's beliefs about the number of firearm carriers in their community is unidentifiable in the data. The rationale for concealed carry deterrence, however, depends on such a link existing: it assumes that potential assailants are aware of the distribution of firearm carriers in the potential victim population, but the empirical evidence presented here suggests that that assumption simply does not hold. Because beliefs over the distribution of firearm carriers are impervious to permitting policies and do not respond positively to the true distribution of carriers, the data suggest easing concealed carry cannot deter crime.
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Assessing the “Statistical Accuracy” of the National Incident-Based Reporting System Hate Crime Data
James Nolan et al.
American Behavioral Scientist, forthcoming
Abstract:
The current study introduces a method to assess hate crime classification error in a state Incident-Based Reporting System. The study identifies and quantifies the “statistical accuracy” of aggregate hate crime data and provides insight from frontline officers about thought processes involved with classifying bias offenses. Random samples of records from two city and two county agencies provided data for the study. A systematic review of official case narratives determined hate crime classification error using state and federal definitions. A focus group sought to inquire about officers’ handling of hate crimes. Undercounting of hate crimes in official data was evident. When error rates were extrapolated, National Incident-Based Reporting System Group A hate crimes were undercounted by 67%. Officers’ responses validated complications involved with classifying hate crimes, particularly, incidents motivated “in part” by bias. Classification errors in reporting hate crimes have an impact on the statistical accuracy of official hate crime statistics. Officers’ offense descriptions provided greater awareness to issues with accurately interpreting and classifying hate crimes. The results yield useful information for officer training, understanding the true magnitude of these crimes, and a precursor for adjusting crime statistics to better estimate the “true” number of hate crimes in the population.
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Sexual Victimization Among College Women: Role of Sexual Assertiveness and Resistance Variables
Erika Kelley, Lindsay Orchowski & Christine Gidycz
Psychology of Violence, forthcoming
Objective: College women are at high risk for sexual assault, especially women with a history of sexual victimization. The present study uses a longitudinal design to explore the role of sexual assertiveness, psychological barriers to resistance, and resistance self-efficacy as putative mediators between prior sexual victimization and sexual revictimization among a sample of 296 college women.
Method: Women completed assessments of sexual victimization since the age of 14, as well as putative mediator variables at a baseline assessment. Sexual revictimization was assessed over a 7-month interim.
Results: Results of structural equation modeling indicated that the relationship between baseline and follow-up sexual assault was mediated by the study variables. Follow-up analyses suggested that sexual assertiveness served as a particularly salient mediator.
Conclusions: These findings suggest that increasing women’s sexual assertiveness skills may be a particularly important component of reducing risk for sexual revictimization among women with a history of assault.
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Emily Farris & Mirya Holman
Social Science Quarterly, forthcoming
Objective: This article examines sheriffs’ attitudes and their offices’ policies concerning violence against women and assesses the connection between their attitudes and policies.
Methods: Using data from an original, national survey completed in the fall of 2012 of elected sheriffs (N = 553), we evaluate a battery of rape and domestic violence myths and examine the presence of various violence against women policies.
Results: We find that many sheriffs express belief in inaccurate myths concerning violence against women. We find strong connections between sheriffs’ attitudes about women's equality and their attitudes about violence against women. In turn, their attitudes about gender-based violence relate to training and policies for addressing these cases.
Conclusion: In an office like that of the sheriff, with both bureaucratic and political elements, attitudes of political leaders influence policies. Our findings suggest an important connection between elected officials’ attitudes and policy actions beyond the traditional legislative arena.
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The Beheading of Criminal Organizations and the Dynamics of Violence in Mexico
Gabriela Calderón et al.
Journal of Conflict Resolution, forthcoming
Abstract:
In 2006, the Mexican government launched an aggressive campaign to weaken drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs). The security policies differed significantly from those of previous administrations in the use of a leadership strategy (the targeting for arrest of the highest levels or core leadership of criminal networks). While these strategies can play an important role in disrupting the targeted criminal organization, they can also have unintended consequences, increasing inter-cartel and intra-cartel fighting and fragmenting criminal organizations. What impact do captures of senior drug cartel members have on the dynamics of drug-related violence? Does it matter if governments target drug kingpins versus lower-ranked lieutenants? We analyze whether the captures or killings of kingpins and lieutenants have increased drug-related violence and whether the violence spills over spatially. To estimate effects that are credibly causal, we use different empirical strategies that combine difference-in-differences and synthetic control group methods. We find evidence that captures or killings of drug cartel leaders have exacerbating effects not only on DTO-related violence but also on homicides that affect the general population. Captures or killings of lieutenants, for their part, only seem to exacerbate violence in “strategic places” or municipalities located in the transportation network. While most of the effects on DTO-related violence are found in the first six months after a leader’s removal, effects on homicides affecting the rest of the population are more enduring, suggesting different mechanisms through which leadership neutralizations breed violence.
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Eric Wodahl, John Boman & Brett Garland
Journal of Criminal Justice, May–June 2015, Pages 242–250
Purpose: In response to escalating revocation rates in community supervision, many jurisdictions have adopted graduated sanction policies. Research on graduated sanctions has shown promising results. However, most studies focus exclusively on jail sanctions and have largely ignored the possibility that community-based graduated sanctions such as written assignments, increased treatment participation, or community service hours may be as effective, or more effective, than jail sanctions. Extending this research, the current study examines whether community-based sanctions are as effective in increasing offender compliance as spending time in jail.
Methods: Using data from over 800 violations committed by a random sample of probationers and parolees on intensive supervision probation, multilevel models are estimated that examine whether jail sanctions are more effective than community sanctions in 1) extending time to the offender’s next violation event, 2) reducing the number of future violations, and 3) successfully completing the probation program.
Results: Results consistently indicate that jail sanctions do not outperform community-based sanctions.
Conclusion: Due to the financial, social, and potentially criminogenic effects of jail, the lack of significant differences between jail sanctions and community-based sanctions calls into question the use of jail as a means of punishing persons on community supervision.
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The Weed and Seed Program: A Nationwide Analysis of Crime Outcomes
David Lilley
Criminal Justice Policy Review, July 2015, Pages 423-447
Abstract:
The Weed and Seed program was created to target high-crime neighborhoods with sustained and intensive enforcement and community restoration resources. At present, however, no nationwide assessment of crime outcomes has yet been conducted comparing all jurisdictions that implemented this program with those that did not. This study conducted a series of panel data analyses to compare every Weed and Seed jurisdiction with 250 randomly selected, matched comparison locations nationwide from 1990 through 2004 to assess the impact of this program on Uniform Crime Report Part I felony offenses. In this first evaluation of crime outcomes among all Weed and Seed jurisdictions nationwide, results from five different quasi-experimental and panel data analyses indicated that the program was associated with reductions in robbery, burglary, and vehicle theft. In addition, the level of impact of the Weed and Seed program was similar to more expensive Department of Justice programs from the Office of Community-Oriented Policing, and Local Law Enforcement Block Grants.
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Economic Impact of Multisystemic Therapy With Juvenile Sexual Offenders
Charles Borduin & Alex Dopp
Journal of Family Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study investigated the economics of multisystemic therapy for problem sexual behaviors (MST-PSB), a family-based treatment that has shown promise with juvenile sexual offenders. We evaluated the cost and benefits of MST-PSB versus usual community services using arrest data obtained in an 8.9-year follow-up from a randomized clinical trial with 48 juvenile sexual offenders, who averaged 22.9 years of age at follow-up (Borduin, Schaeffer, & Heiblum, 2009). The net benefit of MST-PSB over usual community services was calculated in terms of (a) the value to taxpayers, which was based on measures of criminal justice system expenses (e.g., police and sheriff’s offices, court processing, community supervision); and (b) the value to crime victims, which was based on measures of both tangible (e.g., property damage and loss, health care, lost productivity) and intangible (e.g., pain, suffering, reduced quality of life) losses. Lower rates of posttreatment arrests in the MST-PSB versus usual community services conditions were associated with lasting reductions in expenses for both taxpayers and crime victims, with an estimated total benefit of $343,455 per MST-PSB participant. Stated differently, every dollar spent on MST-PSB recovered $48.81 in savings to taxpayers and crime victims over the 8.9-year follow-up. These findings demonstrate that a family-based treatment such as MST-PSB can produce lasting economic benefits with juvenile sexual offenders. Policymakers and public service agencies should consider these findings when making decisions about interventions for this challenging clinical population.
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Assessing the Celerity of Arrest on 3-Year Recidivism Patterns in a Sample of Criminal Defendants
Haley Zettler et al.
Journal of Criminal Justice, forthcoming
Purpose: In an effort to build on celerity research, we use longitudinal data to examine whether celerity, as measured by the amount of time from the commission of an offense to the time of arrest, impacts the likelihood for recidivism.
Methods: Propensity score matching is used to examine how the effects of several different measures of celerity are related to subsequent arrests.
Results: Findings were consistent with assumptions of deterrence theory; experiencing a shorter time between offense and arrest date was related to a significantly lower risk of recidivism, while the effect diminished beyond thirty days.
Conclusions: Results suggest that celerity of arrest may have a small, short-term deterrent effect — a finding that is similar to one from the research on sanction certainty.
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Thomas Baker et al.
Criminal Justice Policy Review, July 2015, Pages 448-462
Abstract:
Fear of crime has been recognized as one of the driving forces underlying the punitive turn in the criminal justice system. Despite this, evidence suggests that rehabilitative efforts are still supported by the general public. The current study uses a national random sample to examine the impact of fear on public preference for allocating resources to rehabilitative versus punitive criminal justice system policies. Contrary to prior studies, respondents are forced to make a choice between punitive and rehabilitative options, and both the emotional and cognitive aspects of crime salience — fear of crime and victimization risk — are evaluated to determine their independent and combined impact on crime policy preference. The findings suggest that the majority of the public prefers putting resources toward rehabilitative crime polices, but fear of crime and risk of victimization both reduce this tendency. The implications of our results for current criminal justice system policies are discussed.
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Valerie Clark
Journal of Experimental Criminology, June 2015, Pages 193-215
Objectives: To assess whether a reentry program targeted towards high-risk offenders leaving Minnesota state prisons significantly reduced recidivism.
Methods: Adult male release violators serving incarceration periods of 2–6 months in two Minnesota state prisons were randomly assigned to either the control group (n = 77) or the High-Risk Revocation Reduction (HRRR) program (n = 162). The latter group was provided with supplemental case planning, housing, employment, mentoring, cognitive-behavioral programming, and transportation assistance services, while the former group was given standard case management services. After 1–2 years of post-release follow-up time, event history analysis was used to predict the following four measures of recidivism: supervised release revocation, rearrest, reconviction, and new offense reincarceration.
Results: The Cox regression analyses revealed that participation in HRRR significantly lowered the risk of supervised release revocations and reconvictions by 28 and 43 %, respectively. Regardless of treatment or control group membership, receiving more reentry assistance significantly reduced supervision revocation and rearrest. Analyses also revealed that employment assistance, including subsidized employment, was especially effective at reducing recidivism.
Conclusions: Targeting resources towards this previously under-served population may be useful for lowering overall rates of recidivism. However, a later follow-up analysis is needed to ensure that these results remain over time.
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The Effect of Media Exposure of Suspects on Solving Crime
Dinand Webbink, Judith van Erp & Froukje van Gastel
Economic Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
In this study we investigate the effect of showing suspects of crime in a TV programme on the probability of apprehension. We exploit exogenous variation in the number of viewers of the crime programme induced by Champions League games broadcasted on competing channels. The estimates show that an increase in the number of viewers of the TV programme increases the probability of solving crime, especially for criminal cases with many potential observers or cases for which it is easier to recognise suspects due to the quality of the images. The implication of our findings is that media can be effectively used for detection of crime suspects.
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Stress and Hardship after Prison
Bruce Western et al.
American Journal of Sociology, March 2015, Pages 1512-1547
Abstract:
The historic increase in U.S. incarceration rates made the transition from prison to community common for poor, prime-age men and women. Leaving prison presents the challenge of social integration—of connecting with family and finding housing and a means of subsistence. The authors study variation in social integration in the first months after prison release with data from the Boston Reentry Study, a unique panel survey of 122 newly released prisoners. The data indicate severe material hardship immediately after incarceration. Over half of sample respondents were unemployed, two-thirds received public assistance, and many relied on female relatives for financial support and housing. Older respondents and those with histories of addiction and mental illness were the least socially integrated, with weak family ties, unstable housing, and low levels of employment. Qualitative interviews show that anxiety and feelings of isolation accompanied extreme material insecurity. Material insecurity combined with the adjustment to social life outside prison creates a stress of transition that burdens social relationships in high-incarceration communities.
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Evelyn Patterson & Christopher Wildeman
Social Science Research, September 2015, Pages 325–337
Abstract:
Over the last 40 years, imprisonment has become a common stage in the life-course for low-skilled and minority men, with implications not only for inequality among adult men but also for inequality more broadly. Unfortunately, all research documenting how increases in imprisonment have transformed the life-course of poor, minority men has neglected to estimate how much time black and white men on average spend imprisoned or marked as an ex-prisoner. In this article, we fill this gap by using multistate life tables to estimate what share of their working lives (18–64) black and white men will spend imprisoned and marked as ex-prisoners. Our estimates imply that white men spend on average 0.33 years of their working lives imprisoned and 2.31 years marked, while black men spend on average 1.79 years of their working lives imprisoned and 11.14 years marked. This implies that black men spend on average one-third of their working lives either imprisoned or having been freed but marked by the penal system. For the 32.2% of black men who ever experience imprisonment (Bonczar, 2003), moreover, these estimates imply that they spend on average 5.56 years imprisoned, corresponding to 13.4% of their working lives. Taken together, these findings imply a dramatic reorientation of the life course for black men, as one-third of the black male population will spend one-seventh of their working life in prison.
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Causal Effects of Mental Health Treatment on Education Outcomes for Youth in the Justice System
Alison Evans Cuellar & Dhaval Dave
NBER Working Paper, May 2015
Abstract:
This study assesses whether mental health interventions can improve academic outcomes for justice-involved youth. Only a limited number of studies have linked justice policies to outcomes beyond crime, particularly education, which carries large monetary and non-monetary benefits. The current study relies on detailed administrative data and unique policy rules under which youth are assigned to behavioral treatment programs. The administrative data allow for a rich set of controls for observed family- and youth-specific heterogeneity. In addition, the treatment assignment rules create a discontinuity among youth who are deemed eligible or not eligible for treatment, rules which the study exploits empirically to address the non-random selection bias in estimating plausibly causal effects of treatment eligibility and treatment receipt. Estimates indicate that certain types of intensive mental health intervention can lower dropout and increase high-school completion for justice-involved youth. Effects on grades are negative or not significant, possibly due to the greater retention of less academically-skilled students. We also assess heterogeneity in the treatment effects, and find that the effects on dropout tend to be greater among youth believed to be less academically engaged prior to treatment.
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Incapacitated and Forcible Rape of College Women: Prevalence Across the First Year
Kate Carey et al.
Journal of Adolescent Health, June 2015, Pages 678–680
Purpose: The purpose of this study was to document the point and cumulative prevalence of incapacitated rape (IR) and forcible rape (FR) among first-year college women.
Methods: Female students (N = 483) completed a health questionnaire (1) on arrival on campus; (2) at the end of the fall semester; (3) at the end of the spring semester; and (4) at the end of the summer following their first year of college.
Results: Before entering college, 18% reported IR (attempted and/or completed), and 15% reported FR (attempted and/or completed). During the first year of college, 15% reported IR (attempted or completed) and 9% reported FR (attempted or completed). By the start of the second year (lifetime prevalence), 26% and 22% had experienced IR and FR (attempted or completed), respectively.
Conclusions: Both incapacitated and forcible sexual assaults and rape have reached epidemic levels among college women. Interventions to address sexual violence on campus are urgently needed.
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Close-Ups and the Scale of Ecology: Land Uses and the Geography of Social Context and Crime
Adam Boessen & John Hipp
Criminology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Whereas one line of recent neighborhood research has placed an emphasis on zooming into smaller units of analysis such as street blocks, another line of research has suggested that even the meso-area of neighborhoods is too narrow and that the area surrounding the neighborhood is also important. Thus, there is a need to examine the scale at which the social ecology impacts crime. We use data from seven cities from around the year 2000 to test our research questions using multilevel negative binomial regression models (N = 73,010 blocks and 8,231 block groups). Our results suggest that although many neighborhood factors seem to operate on the microscale of blocks, others seem to have a much broader impact. In addition, we find that racially and ethnically homogenous blocks within heterogeneous block groups have the most crime. Our findings also show the strongest results for a multitude of land-use measures and that these measures sharpen some of the associations from social characteristics. Thus, we find that accounting for multiple scales simultaneously is important in ecological studies of crime.
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Charles Loeffler & Ben Grunwald
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, forthcoming
Objectives: Test whether processing non-transfer-eligible juvenile arrestees as adults has any effect on their likelihood of criminal recidivism.
Methods: A regression discontinuity design is used to analyze the effect of processing juveniles as adults on a four-year felony rearrest measure using a sample of 78,142 felony drug arrests.
Results: For the felony drug offenders in this sample, processing juveniles as adults reduced the probability of recidivism by 3 to 5 percent. Based on the rapid onset and limited change in size of these effects over the duration of a four-year follow-up as well as the concentration of the effect within a subpopulation having the least risk of incarceration, we attribute this finding to a combination of enhanced deterrence and incapacitation in the adult system.
Conclusions: Our results suggest that processing juveniles in the adult system may not uniformly increase offending and may reduce offending in some circumstances. Our findings also highlight the utility of quasi-experimental research designs for estimating the life-course effects of contact with the criminal justice system.