Rash
Rational Temporal Predictions Can Underlie Apparent Failures to Delay Gratification
Joseph McGuire & Joseph Kable
Psychological Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes that decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at which future outcomes will materialize. When timing is uncertain, the value of persistence depends crucially on the nature of a decision maker's prior temporal beliefs. Certain forms of temporal beliefs imply that a delay's predicted remaining length increases as a function of time already waited. In this type of situation, the rational, utility-maximizing strategy is to persist for a limited amount of time and then give up. We show empirically that people's explicit predictions of remaining delay lengths indeed increase as a function of elapsed time in several relevant domains, implying that temporal judgments offer a rational basis for limiting persistence. We then develop our framework into a simple working model and show how it accounts for individual differences in a laboratory task (the well-known "marshmallow test"). We conclude that delay-of-gratification failure, generally viewed as a manifestation of limited self-control capacity, can instead arise as an adaptive response to the perceived statistics of one's environment.
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Red Brain, Blue Brain: Evaluative Processes Differ in Democrats and Republicans
Darren Schreiber et al.
PLoS ONE, February 2013
Abstract:
Liberals and conservatives exhibit different cognitive styles and converging lines of evidence suggest that biology influences differences in their political attitudes and beliefs. In particular, a recent study of young adults suggests that liberals and conservatives have significantly different brain structure, with liberals showing increased gray matter volume in the anterior cingulate cortex, and conservatives showing increased gray matter volume in the in the amygdala. Here, we explore differences in brain function in liberals and conservatives by matching publicly-available voter records to 82 subjects who performed a risk-taking task during functional imaging. Although the risk-taking behavior of Democrats (liberals) and Republicans (conservatives) did not differ, their brain activity did. Democrats showed significantly greater activity in the left insula, while Republicans showed significantly greater activity in the right amygdala. In fact, a two parameter model of partisanship based on amygdala and insula activations yields a better fitting model of partisanship than a well-established model based on parental socialization of party identification long thought to be one of the core findings of political science. These results suggest that liberals and conservatives engage different cognitive processes when they think about risk, and they support recent evidence that conservatives show greater sensitivity to threatening stimuli.
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Alexander Persoskie
Judgment and Decision Making, January 2013, Pages 1-6
Abstract:
Recent investigations of adolescents' beliefs about risk have led to surprisingly optimistic conclusions: Teens' self estimates of their likelihood of experiencing various life events not only correlate sensibly with relevant risk factors (Fischhoff et al., 2000), but they also significantly predict later experiencing the events (Bruine de Bruin et al., 2007). Using the same dataset examined in previous investigations, the present study extended these analyses by comparing the predictive value of self estimates of risk to that of traditional risk factors for each outcome. The analyses focused on the prediction of pregnancy, criminal arrest, and school enrollment. Three findings emerged. First, traditional risk factor information tended to out-predict self assessments of risk, even when the risk factors included crude, potentially unreliable measures (e.g., a simple tally of self-reported criminal history) and when the risk factors were aggregated in a nonoptimal way (i.e., unit weighting). Second, despite the previously reported correlations between self estimates and outcomes, perceived invulnerability was a problem among the youth: Over half of the teens who became pregnant, half of those who were not enrolled in school, and nearly a third of those who were arrested had, one year earlier, indicated a 0% chance of experiencing these outcomes. Finally, adding self estimates of risk to the other risk factor information produced only small gains in predictive accuracy. These analyses point to the need for greater education about the situations and behaviors that lead to negative outcomes.
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Optimism Following a Tornado Disaster
Jerry Suls et al.
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, forthcoming
Abstract:
Effects of exposure to a severe weather disaster on perceived future vulnerability were assessed in college students, local residents contacted through random-digit dialing, and community residents of affected versus unaffected neighborhoods. Students and community residents reported being less vulnerable than their peers at 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after the disaster. In Studies 1 and 2, absolute risk estimates were more optimistic with time, whereas comparative vulnerability was stable. Residents of affected neighborhoods (Study 3), surprisingly, reported less comparative vulnerability and lower "gut-level" numerical likelihood estimates at 6 months, but later their estimates resembled the unaffected residents. Likelihood estimates (10%-12%), however, exceeded the 1% risk calculated by storm experts, and gut-level versus statistical-level estimates were more optimistic. Although people believed they had approximately a 1-in-10 chance of injury from future tornadoes (i.e., an overestimate), they thought their risk was lower than peers.
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Bi-frontal direct current stimulation affects delay discounting choices
David Hecht, Vincent Walsh & Michal Lavidor
Cognitive Neuroscience, Winter 2013, Pages 7-11
Abstract:
In delay discounting tasks, participants decide between receiving a certain amount of money now or a larger sum sometime in the future. This study investigated the effects of transcranial direct current stimulation on delay discounting. Participants made delay discounting choices while receiving a bi-frontal stimulation of right-hemisphere anodal/left-hemisphere cathodal, left-hemisphere anodal/right-hemisphere cathodal, and sham stimulation, in three separate sessions. When the difference between the alternatives was 10% or more, participants generally preferred to wait for the larger sum. Nevertheless, there were more choices of smaller "immediate" gains, instead of the larger delayed options, when the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) was facilitated and the right DLPFC inhibited, compared to the sham stimulation. These observations indicate the significant role of the prefrontal cortex in delay discounting choices, and demonstrate that increased left frontal activation combined with decreased right frontal activation can alter decision-making by intensifying a tendency to choose immediate gains.
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When waiting to choose increases patience
Xianchi Dai & Ayelet Fishbach
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, forthcoming
Abstract:
We explore how waiting to choose influences patience. We propose that waiting to make an intertemporal choice increases the assumed value of the items for which people are waiting, leading them to become more patient. Five studies support this model. Study 1 finds that after waiting to choose, people exhibit greater patience than if they had not waited or before they had started to wait. Studies 2a and 2b find that increased valuation (rather than decreased cost of the wait) mediates the impact of waiting on patience. Study 3 further finds that whereas waiting to choose increases preference for a larger-later (over smaller-sooner) item, it also increases willingness to pay to expedite delivery of a single item. Finally, study 4 shows the waiting effect is stronger for hedonic than for utilitarian products. These studies modify existing theory by identifying the conditions under which waiting to choose can improve patience.
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I'm too calm - Let's take a risk! On the impact of state and trait arousal on risk taking
Barbara Schmidt, Patrick Mussel & Johannes Hewig
Psychophysiology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Theories of an optimal level of arousal suggest that underaroused humans seek stimulation to enhance their arousal. One way to increase arousal is risky behavior during gambling. In the current study, we show that the lower the participants' resting arousal, measured via resting heart rate, the riskier they acted in a gamble and the faster they responded, indicating less impulse control. Participants with low resting heart rate also perceived the risk options in the gamble as less arousing and less risky compared to participants with higher resting heart rate. Partial correlations show that resting heart rate, risk behavior, and ratings were interrelated. After physical exercise, participants tended to behave less risky in the gamble compared to a control condition without exercise. Thus, both trait and state arousal effects indicate an inverse relationship of arousal and risky behavior.
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Factors affecting soldiers' time preference: A field study in Israel
Tal Shavit, Eyal Lahav & Uri Benzion
Journal of Socio-Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
The current field study examines how the day of the week, optimism level and other personal characteristics influences the time preference of soldiers. To do this, we compare the time discount of soldiers in the Israel Defense Forces at the beginning of the work week (Sunday in Israel) and just prior to the weekend (on Thursday afternoon in Israel). The soldiers were asked to answer questionnaires regarding their time preferences, and dispositional optimism. We found that the soldiers have a higher subjective discount rate on Thursday when they need money for weekend activities. In addition, we found that optimism, being a firstborn sibling, having parents with higher earnings, and time remaining until discharge are negatively related to subjective discount rate. Conversely, having a balanced bank account is positively related to subjective discount rate.
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'O Sole Mio: An Experimental Analysis of Weather and Risk Attitudes in Financial Decisions
Anna Bassi, Riccardo Colacito & Paolo Fulghieri
Review of Financial Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although weather has been shown to affect financial markets and financial decision making, a still open question is the channel through which such influence is exerted. By employing a multiple price list method, this paper provides direct experimental evidence that sunshine and good weather promote risk-taking behavior. This effect is present whether relying on objective measures of meteorological conditions or subjective weather assessments. Finally, employing a psychological test, we find evidence that weather may affect individual risk tolerance through its effect on mood.
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Serotonergic Genotypes, Neuroticism, and Financial Choices
Camelia Kuhnen, Gregory Samanez-Larkin & Brian Knutson
PLoS ONE, January 2013
Abstract:
Life financial outcomes carry a significant heritable component, but the mechanisms by which genes influence financial choices remain unclear. Focusing on a polymorphism in the promoter region of the serotonin transporter gene (5-HTTLPR), we found that individuals possessing the short allele of this gene invested less in equities, were less engaged in actively making investment decisions, and had fewer credit lines. Short allele carriers also showed higher levels of the personality trait neuroticism, despite not differing from others with respect to cognitive skills, education, or wealth. Mediation analysis suggested that the presence of the 5-HTTLPR short allele decreased real life measures of financial risk taking through its influence on neuroticism. These findings show that 5-HTTLPR short allele carriers avoid risky and complex financial choices due to negative emotional reactions, and have implications for understanding and managing individual differences in financial choice.
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Crude Comments and Concern: Online Incivility's Effect on Risk Perceptions of Emerging Technologies
Ashley Anderson et al.
Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, forthcoming
Abstract:
Uncivil discourse is a growing concern in American rhetoric, and this trend has expanded beyond traditional media to online sources, such as audience comments. Using an experiment given to a sample representative of the U.S. population, we examine the effects online incivility on perceptions toward a particular issue - namely, an emerging technology, nanotechnology. We found that exposure to uncivil blog comments can polarize risk perceptions of nanotechnology along the lines of religiosity and issue support.