Raising Stakes
Income Shocks and the Intergenerational Transmission of Executive Function
Ariel Kalil & Mauricio Koechlin
University of Chicago Working Paper, February 2026
Abstract:
Early childhood executive function (EF), the cognitive control processes underlying working memory, inhibitory control, and cognitive flexibility, is associated with later-life health and economic outcomes. Using data from Baby's First Years, a randomized trial of unconditional cash transfers to low-income mothers, we examine intergenerational EF transmission from mothers to their four-year-old children (n=769). Cash transfers do not significantly moderate this transmission in the full sample, but among low-EF mothers, where transmission is strongest, transfers attenuate the mother-child association to the point of statistical nonsignificance. Exploratory analysis suggests that increased cognitive stimulation and structured routines may mediate this process. Income support for low-income families may foster intergenerational mobility by weakening the transmission of low self-regulation.
The Market Value of Reproductive Rights: Evidence from U.S. Housing Markets
Daniel Dench et al.
NBER Working Paper, March 2026
Abstract:
We estimate the market value of reproductive rights as capitalized into U.S. housing markets. We do so using a synthetic difference-in-differences design to evaluate the effects of total abortion bans following the 2022 Dobbs decision, and drawing on housing market indices from Zillow and vacancy rate data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey. The results indicate that total abortion bans reduced rents by an average of 2.2% from July 2022 through June 2025, with the effect reaching 4.0% in the most recent year. Over the same horizon, bans increased rental vacancy rates by an average of 1.1 percentage points, with the effect reaching 1.8 percentage points in the most recent year. Estimates for home values and homeowner vacancy rates are similar in magnitude but less precise.
Do fewer siblings lead to better mental health and subjective well-being? Evidence from China’s family planning policies
Huihui Cheng & Zhuang Hao
Journal of Population Economics, February 2026
Abstract:
Using China’s family planning policies as natural experiments, we examine the long-term effects of sibship size on adults’ mental health and subjective well-being. We find that having more siblings negatively affects mental health and subjective well-being in adults, increasing the likelihood of depression and psychological distress and lowering individuals’ life satisfaction and confidence about the future. These effects are more prominent among females and those with lower early-life socioeconomic status. Interestingly, being the only child also worsens mental health in adults. We argue that, in the case of only children, the detrimental effects of the “only-child disadvantage” on mental health and subjective well-being may dominate the benefit from the “quantity-quality tradeoff.” We find supportive evidence that adults without siblings have better physical health but are less agreeable and more neurotic than those with siblings. Together, these seemingly contradictory findings reconcile the theory of quantity-quality tradeoff and the studies on the only-child disadvantage and advance our understanding of the impacts of sibship size on mental health and subjective well-being.
Proud to be... a Family: Evidence from Over 140 Countries
Christos Makridis & Clara Piano
Arizona State University Working Paper, January 2026
Abstract:
Global fertility rates have fallen sharply over recent decades, fueling concerns about population decline and aging societies. While existing research emphasizes structural determinants such as income, education, female labor force participation, and family policy, much less is known about whether collective sentiment about the future shapes fertility behavior. This paper investigates the causal effect of subjective perceptions of thriving on fertility using Gallup World Poll data from 2006-2025, covering more than 140 countries. We construct country-year measures of thriving and examine their relationship with realized fertility outcomes. To address endogeneity, we implement an instrumental variables strategy based on the Meta/Facebook Social Connectedness Index, which captures exposure to optimism shocks in socially connected countries. The results show that higher national thriving significantly raises fertility, even after controlling for material conditions and fixed effects. These findings highlight macro-sentiment as an important and previously underexplored determinant of demographic change, bridging demographic economics with behavioral macroeconomics.
Work from Home and Fertility
Steven Davis et al.
NBER Working Paper, March 2026
Abstract:
We investigate how fertility relates to work from home (WFH) in the post-pandemic era, drawing on original data from our Global Survey of Working Arrangements and U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes. Realized fertility from 2023 to 2025 and future planned fertility are higher among adults who WFH at least one day a week and, for couples, higher yet when both partners do so. Estimated lifetime fertility is greater by 0.32 children per woman when both partners WFH one or more days per week as compared to the case where neither does. The implications for national fertility rates differ across countries due mainly to large differences in WFH rates. In a complementary analysis using other U.S. data before and after the pandemic, one-year fertility rates rise with WFH opportunities in one's own occupation and, for couples, in the partner's occupation.
Unexpected Inflation and Fertility Rate in the US
Ahmed Adesete & Clara Piano
University of Mississippi Working Paper, January 2026
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of unexpected inflation on the fertility rate in the United States. Using state-level data from 2003-2023, we employ the Kalman filter to extract the unexpected component of actual inflation rates then relate this value to the next year's total fertility rate. The empirical results show that unexpected inflation has a negative and significant impact on the total fertility rate. Younger women (under age 25) are more likely to postpone or reduce births due to an unanticipated inflation. A one percentage point increase in unexpected inflation is expected to result in 3-5 fewer births per 1,000 reproductive-age women. Not only does this work provide additional indirect evidence of the fact that children are normal goods (i.e., less is demanded at a higher price), but we are the first to document the role of unexpected inflation in delaying or preventing births within the contemporary U.S. context.
Childhood exposure to natural disasters and future entrepreneurship in adulthood
Nathan Sidney Greidanus & Chi Liao
Small Business Economics, March 2026, Pages 1333-1352
Abstract:
Drawing on post-traumatic growth (PTG) theory as an overarching framework, we document the long-term effects of childhood exposure to natural disasters on entrepreneurship in adulthood. Using longitudinal data spanning childhood to adulthood and county-level disaster data, we find that severe disaster exposure in childhood positively influences both business ownership and serial business ownership in adulthood. Additionally, childhood social support from parents and friends positively moderates the relationship between severe disaster exposure and serial business ownership. Consistent with PTG theory, the strongest effects appear among those with severe disaster exposure in childhood, but not among very young children who lack the cognitive sophistication to process and grow from such trauma.
Do Larger Earned Income Tax Credit and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Benefits Create Complementary Effects on Child Development?
Youngjin Stephanie Hong
Population Research and Policy Review, January 2026
Abstract:
Poverty is particularly concerning during early childhood and the early school years, as it can negatively impact child development both in the short and long term. To alleviate economic hardship, the U.S. government provides a patchwork of income support policies. This paper examines two of the largest programs, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), which low-income working families often receive simultaneously. This paper is the first to explore whether these benefits interact to influence children's early cognitive development in families receiving both programs. To address endogeneity of program benefits, I use a two-way (child and year) fixed effects model to leverage the variation in the maximum federal and state EITC benefits stemming from changes in the number of children and state EITC policies, as well as the variation in SNAP purchasing power driven by local food prices over time within each child, rather than actual benefit amounts. Using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Birth Cohort (which tracks a nationally representative 2001 birth cohort through the kindergarten-entry period), I find new population-level evidence that EITC benefits are effective at improving early math and reading skills when coupled with greater SNAP purchasing power, and vice versa (sample size = 1300). Suggestive evidence is provided on the mechanisms underlying such complementary effects on early cognitive outcomes. The findings highlight the importance of enhancing the reach and generosity of both programs.