Pushing Education
Gritty peers
Effrosyni Adamopoulou, Yaming Cao & Ezgi Kaya
Labour Economics, June 2026
Abstract:
We use the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health to explore how high school peers’ grit, a personality trait characterized by perseverance and passion, influences long-term outcomes approximately 15 years after high school. Exploiting random variation within schools across cohorts and the longitudinal nature of our data, we find that peer grit significantly increases future earnings by 4.2%, especially for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. This implies that peer grit may help bridge socioeconomic gaps. We uncover three potential channels through which peer grit affects long-term earnings: college enrollment, job alignment with long-term career goals, and increased resilience to difficulties. Additionally, peer grit leads to higher job satisfaction and asset accumulation. Thus, peer grit’s effects extend beyond short-term educational performance and persist into adulthood.
Disparate Impacts of Teacher Certification Exams
Christa Deneault, Evan Riehl & Jian Zou
NBER Working Paper, February 2026
Abstract:
We use Texas administrative data to assess the long-standing claim that teacher certification exams discriminate against underrepresented minority (URM) candidates. In a regression discontinuity design, we find that failing a certification exam delays entry into teaching and costs the average candidate $10,000 in forgone earnings. These costs fall disproportionately on URM candidates both because they are more likely to fail and because their earnings losses from failing are 50 percent larger on average. To examine whether these disparities are justified by racial/ethnic differences in teaching quality, we develop a new measure of disparate impact and estimate it using a policy change that increased the difficulty of Texas' elementary certification exam. The harder exam reduced the URM share of new teachers but had no significant benefits for teaching quality or student achievement. Taken together, our findings show that certification exams have a disparate impact in the sense that they impose much larger economic costs on URM teaching candidates than on white candidates with similar potential teaching quality.
Fewer Licenses, Similar Teachers: Changing Licensing Tests in Indiana
John Fallon & Marcus Winters
Boston University Working Paper, February 2026
Abstract:
We use longitudinal administrative data from Indiana to examine changes in teacher quality following the state’s shift to a more difficult licensure test. Despite a significant drop in new licenses issued following the change in the licensure test standard, the overall quality of incoming teachers and the relative quality of licensed teachers compared to unlicensed teachers remained largely unchanged. We find some heterogeneity by subject and school setting, with urban schools experiencing a modest decline in teacher quality, particularly in math. Our findings raise questions about the value of requiring prospective teachers to pass licensure tests to obtain a license.
Who Gets What in Education: Can School Matching Improve Student Achievement?
Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Parag Pathak & Christopher Walters
NBER Working Paper, March 2026
Abstract:
We examine two approaches to improving urban school systems: changing who gets to go to existing schools (reallocation) and restructuring school portfolios through closures and reconstitution (resource augmentation). Using data from New York City high schools, we estimate models of school effects allowing for both vertical school quality differences and horizontal student-specific match effects. While sophisticated reallocation policies that optimize student-school matches can generate modest educational gains, they are constrained by limited seats at highly effective schools. Simple resource-augmentation policies targeting replacement of low-performing schools achieve comparable improvements with less systemic disruption. Analysis of NYC's school closures reveals that basic graduation rate metrics effectively identify struggling schools, suggesting complex value-added models may be unnecessary for targeting closure decisions. Our findings indicate that capacity constraints, rather than poor school matching, primarily drive educational inequality.
Teacher Effectiveness in Remote Instruction
Cade Lawson & Tim Sass
Education Finance and Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
The effect of remote learning on student performance has been a frequent topic of research and discussion in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, yet little is known about the impact of remote instruction on the performance of teachers. This study documents how relative effectiveness of teachers changed when moving from in-person to remote instruction and analyzes the characteristics of teachers associated with greater relative effectiveness during remote instruction. Using matched student/teacher-level data from three large metro-Atlanta school districts, we estimate teacher value-added models to measure the association between teacher characteristics and a teacher's relative contribution to test score growth before and during the period of virtual instruction in the 2020-21 school year. We find evidence of increased variation in overall teacher effectiveness during remote instruction, driven largely by changes in the relative performance of early elementary (K-2) and middle school teachers. Veteran teachers appear relatively more effective in virtual instruction than their less-experienced peers, with less experienced teachers performing relatively worse regardless of in-person teaching ability. Finally, we find that the very best in-person teachers are more likely to experience large declines in relative effectiveness when shifting to remote instruction compared to a baseline period with in-person instruction.
How Early Morning Classes Change Academic Trajectories: Evidence From a Natural Experiment
Anthony Yim
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Spring 2026
Abstract:
Using a natural experiment which randomized class times to students, this study reveals that enrolling in early morning classes lowers students’ course grades and the likelihood of future STEM course enrollment. There is a 29% reduction in pursuing the major within the same college and a 21% rise in choosing a low-earning major, predominantly influenced by early morning STEM classes. To understand the mechanism, I conducted a survey of undergraduate students enrolled in an introductory course, some of whom were assigned to a 7:30 a.m. section. I find evidence of a decrease in human capital accumulation and learning quality for early morning sections.
Accelerating Opportunity: The Effects of Instructionally Supported Detracking
Thomas Dee & Elizabeth Huffaker
American Educational Research Journal, April 2026, Pages 307-350
Abstract:
The pivotal role of algebra in the educational trajectories of U.S. students continues to motivate high-profile policies focused on when students access the course, their peers, and how it is taught. This random-assignment partnership study examined an innovative district-level reform -- the Algebra I Initiative -- that placed ninth grade students with prior math scores below grade level into Algebra I classes coupled with teacher training instead of a remedial pre-algebra class. We found that this reform significantly increased grade 11 math achievement (extreme spread = 0.2 SD) without lowering the achievement of classroom peers. This initiative also increased attendance and district retention. These results suggest that higher expectations for the lowest-performing students coupled with aligned teacher supports is a promising model for realizing students’ mathematical potential.
Innovation by Displacement
Linzhuo Li, Yiling Lin & Lingfei Wu
University of Pittsburgh Working Paper, November 2025
Abstract:
New ideas are often thought to arise from recombining existing knowledge. Yet despite rapid publication growth-and expanding opportunities for recombination-scientific breakthroughs remain rare. This gap between productivity and progress challenges recombinant growth theory as the prevailing account of innovation. We argue that the limitation of this theory lies in treating ideas solely as complements, overlooking that breakthroughs often arise when ideas act as substitutes. To test this, we integrate scientist interviews, bibliometric validation, and machine learning analysis of 41 million papers (1965-2024). Interviews reveal that breakthroughs are marked not by novelty (Atypicality) alone but by their ability to displace dominant ideas (Disruption). Large-scale analysis confirms that novelty and disruption represent distinct innovation mechanisms: they are negatively correlated across domains, periods, team sizes, and paper versions. Novel papers extend dominant ideas across topics and attract immediate attention; disruptive papers displace them within the same topic and generate lasting influence. Hence, progress slows not from lack of effort but because most research extends rather than overturns ideas. Applying this perspective reveals distinct roles of theories and methods in scientific change: methods more often drive breakthroughs, whereas theories tend to be novel but rarely disruptive, reinforcing the dominance of established ideas.
"Feel" as a Determinant of College Choice: Evidence from Campus Tour Weather
Olivia Feldman, Joshua Hyman & Matthew McGann
NBER Working Paper, March 2026
Abstract:
The feeling or impression that students get about enrolling in a particular college may be an important determinant of their college application decision. Combining institutional records on college campus tour participants over the last decade with hourly weather information, we leverage tour weather as a plausibly exogenous shock to students' "feel" for attending the toured college. We find that poor tour weather reduces participants’ likelihood of applying. Tour participants, for example, are 10 percent less likely to apply when their tour is hot and 8 percent less likely when precipitation occurs during their tour. Using administrative data documenting where all tour participants enroll in college, we find that tour weather has little to no impact on the quality or type of college that participants ultimately attend. Nevertheless, our results suggest that students' "feel" for attending a college can play an important role in the college application decision.
Effects of center-based child care on disadvantaged children: Evidence from a randomized research design
Chris Herbst
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Spring 2026
Abstract:
This paper uses the random assignment of poor families to treatment and control conditions in the Comprehensive Child Development Program (CCDP) to estimate the effects of center-based child care enrollment on child well-being. Implemented in the early-1990s, the CCDP aimed to improve child development and family functioning by offering those in the treatment group 5 years of high-quality child care along with case management. As a result, treated children were substantially more likely to be enrolled in center-based programs throughout the preschool-age years, and I use this variation to estimate the impact of center care on children's language and social skills as well as health. I uncover mixed results: More time spent in center-based settings improves language skills but reduces social skills in the short run, and both effects fade out for most children within 1 to 2 years. I also find that early center care use is strongly predictive of later Head Start enrollment, indicating that a more deliberate “family retention strategy” may be effective at extending children's exposure to high-quality early education.