Public Life
Excess Death Rates for Republicans and Democrats During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Jacob Wallace, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Jason Schwartz
NBER Working Paper, September 2022
Abstract:
Political affiliation has emerged as a potential risk factor for COVID-19, amid evidence that Republican-leaning counties have had higher COVID-19 death rates than Democrat- leaning counties and evidence of a link between political party affiliation and vaccination views. This study constructs an individual-level dataset with political affiliation and excess death rates during the COVID-19 pandemic via a linkage of 2017 voter registration in Ohio and Florida to mortality data from 2018 to 2021. We estimate substantially higher excess death rates for registered Republicans when compared to registered Democrats, with almost all of the difference concentrated in the period after vaccines were widely available in our study states. Overall, the excess death rate for Republicans was 5.4 percentage points (pp), or 76%, higher than the excess death rate for Democrats. Post-vaccines, the excess death rate gap between Republicans and Democrats widened from 1.6 pp (22% of the Democrat excess death rate) to 10.4 pp (153% of the Democrat excess death rate). The gap in excess death rates between Republicans and Democrats is concentrated in counties with low vaccination rates and only materializes after vaccines became widely available.
Mortality Change among Less Educated Americans
Paul Novosad, Charlie Rafkin & Sam Asher
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, October 2022, Pages 1-34
Abstract:
Measurements of mortality change among less educated Americans can be biased because the least educated groups (e.g., dropouts) become smaller and more negatively selected over time. We show that mortality changes at constant education percentiles can be bounded with minimal assumptions. Middle-age mortality increases among non-Hispanic Whites from 1992 to 2018 are driven almost entirely by the bottom 10 percent of the education distribution. Drivers of mortality change differ substantially across groups. Deaths of despair explain most of the mortality change among young non-Hispanic Whites, but less among older Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks. Our bounds are applicable in many other contexts.
Saving light, losing lives: How daylight saving time impacts deaths from suicide and substance abuse
Eric Jonathon Osborne-Christenson
Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper estimates the impact of Daylight Saving Time (DST) on deaths from suicide and substance abuse in the United States. Using Multiple Cause-of-Death Mortality Data from the National Vital Statistics System of the National Center for Health Statistics from 1979 to 1988, the effect is identified in two ways: a regression discontinuity design that exploits discrete time changes in the Spring and Fall; and a fixed effects model that uses a policy change and a switching mechanism that introduces random variation to DST's start and end dates. This is one of the first attempts to estimate the impact of DST on deaths due to suicide and substance abuse and the first to use either identification strategy. The results from both methods suggest that the sleep disruptions during the Spring transition cause the suicide rate to rise by 6.25 percent and the death rate from suicide and substance abuse combined to increase by 6.59 percent directly after the time change. There is no evidence for any change in these outcomes during the Fall transition. The contrasting results from Spring to Fall suggest the entire effect can be attributed to disruptions in sleep patterns rather than changes in ambient light exposure.
Perceived longevity of mRNA technology increases support for Covid-19 vaccines
Scott Eidelman et al.
Social Influence, 2022, Pages 51-60
Abstract:
Among the reasons for Covid-19 mRNA vaccine hesitancy are the vaccines’ relative newness and, consequentially, concerns about their risks and safety. In this research, we address these reasons by manipulating the perceived longevity of the technology underlying mRNA Covid-19 vaccines (i.e., how long participants think these technologies have been in existence). An internet sample of American adults (N = 433) was shown one of the two versions of a timeline of medical events with ‘creation of mRNA vaccines’ placed to its left or right. The placement of mRNA vaccine creation on the left-end of the timeline resulted in Covid-19 mRNA vaccines being judged as older and - when participants' vaccination status was accounted for - better. Participants’ vaccine status did not moderate the impact of longevity on vaccine support. Implications and limitations are discussed.
The Impacts of Covid-19 Illnesses on Workers
Gopi Shah Goda & Evan Soltas
NBER Working Paper, September 2022
Abstract:
We show that Covid-19 illnesses persistently reduce labor supply. Using an event study, we estimate that workers with week-long Covid-19 work absences are 7 percentage points less likely to be in the labor force one year later compared to otherwise-similar workers who do not miss a week of work for health reasons. Our estimates suggest Covid-19 illnesses have reduced the U.S. labor force by approximately 500,000 people (0.2 percent of adults) and imply an average forgone earnings per Covid-19 absence of at least $9,000, about 90 percent of which reflects lost labor supply beyond the initial absence week.
Trends in Passenger Seat Belt Use Among High School Students -- United States, 1991-2019
Alexander Evans et al.
Journal of Adolescent Health, forthcoming
Methods: Data from the national Youth Risk Behavior Surveys conducted biennially from 1991 to 2019 were used to assess trends in seat belt use. Modified Poisson regression with robust variance estimates and linear splines was used to examine seat belt use trend changes overall and by gender, race/ethnicity, and grade.
Results: From 1991 to 2015, seat belt use was about 3.3% higher each survey cycle compared with the previous survey cycle, adjusting for gender, race/ethnicity, and age. After 2015, seat belt use was about 1.8% lower each survey cycle than the previous survey cycle, adjusting for the same covariates.
What Drives Risky Prescription Opioid Use? Evidence from Migration
Amy Finkelstein et al.
NBER Working Paper, September 2022
Abstract:
We investigate the role of person- and place-specific factors in the opioid epidemic by developing and estimating a dynamic model of risky prescription opioid use. We estimate the model using the relationship between cross-state migration and risky use among adults receiving federal disability insurance from 2006 to 2015. Event studies suggest that moving to a state with a 3.5 percentage point higher rate of risky use (roughly the difference between the 20th and 80th percentile states) increases the probability of risky use by 1.0 percentage point on-impact, followed by an additional increase of 0.30 percentage points per subsequent year. Model estimates imply large place effects in both the likelihood of transitioning to addiction and the availability of prescription opioids. A one standard deviation reduction in all place effects would have reduced risky use by two-thirds over our study period. Reductions in place effects on addiction have a larger cumulative effect than analogous reductions in place effects on availability. However, their relative efficacy is reversed in the first few years, suggesting a temporal tradeoff among policy options.
Cloudy with a chance of munchies: Assessing the impact of recreational marijuana legalization on obesity
Raymond March, Veeshan Rayamajhee & Glenn Furton
Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Obesity in the US arguably constitutes the most significant health epidemic over the past century. Recent legislative changes allowing for recreational marijuana use further create a need to better understand the relationship between marijuana use and health choices, leading to obesity. We examine this relationship by using a synthetic control approach to examine the impact of legalized recreational marijuana access on obesity rates by comparing Washington State to a synthetically constructed counterfactual. We find that recreational marijuana's introduction did not lead to increased obesity rates and may have led to decreases in obesity.
The Effects of E-Cigarette Taxes on E-Cigarette Prices and Tobacco Product Sales: Evidence from Retail Panel Data
Chad Cotti et al.
Journal of Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We estimate the effect of e-cigarette tax rates on e-cigarette prices, e-cigarette sales, and sales of other tobacco products using NielsenIQ Retail Scanner data from 2013 to 2019. We find that 90% of e-cigarette taxes are passed on to consumer retail prices. We then estimate reduced form and instrumental variables regressions to examine the effects of e-cigarette and cigarette taxes and prices on sales. We calculate an e-cigarette own-price elasticity of -2.2 and particularly large elasticity of demand for flavored e-cigarettes. Further, we document a cigarette own-price elasticity of -0.4 and positive cross-price elasticities of demand between e-cigarettes and cigarettes, suggesting economic substitution.
The effect of soda taxes beyond beverages in Philadelphia
Felipe Lozano-Rojas & Patrick Carlin
Health Economics, November 2022, Pages 2381-2410
Abstract:
Soda taxes are implemented in several cities across the United States (US) with the aim of reducing sugar intake from sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). Sugar is linked to obesity and to higher risk of diabetes and cardiovascular conditions. Sodas are targeted with these taxes since they are the main source of sugar for consumers in the US. In presence of potential substitutes, the policy can be undermined by consumers changing their sources of sugar. We examine the heterogeneous effects of the 2017 Philadelphia soda tax on purchases of other items containing sugar. We present an empirical evaluation focusing on the potential substitution toward additional sugary foods in Philadelphia and counties bordering Philadelphia. We find an increase in sugar from purchases of sweetened foods of about 4.3% following the introduction of the tax in Philadelphia and of 3.7% in the neighboring localities. The substitution to sugary foods in Philadelphia offsets 19% of the decrease of sugar from SSBs. Additionally, we find that the substitution offsets 37% of the decrease of sugar from SSBs when including counties bordering Philadelphia. These results suggest that while SSB taxes might be effective at lowering consumption of SSBs, substitution patterns may limit the effectiveness of the tax to reduce overall sugar intake.
Bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis identifies causal associations between relative carbohydrate intake and depression
Shi Yao et al.
Nature Human Behaviour, forthcoming
Abstract:
Growing evidence suggests that relative carbohydrate intake affects depression; however, the association between carbohydrates and depression remains controversial. To test this, we performed a two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using genetic variants associated with relative carbohydrate intake (N = 268,922) and major depressive disorder (N = 143,265) from the largest available genome-wide association studies. MR evidence suggested a causal relationship between higher relative carbohydrate intake and lower depression risk (odds ratio, 0.42 for depression per one-standard-deviation increment in relative carbohydrate intake; 95% confidence interval, 0.28 to 0.62; P = 1.49 × 10−5). Multivariable MR indicated that the protective effect of relative carbohydrate intake on depression persisted after conditioning on other diet compositions. The mediation analysis via two-step MR showed that this effect was partly mediated by body mass index, with a mediated proportion of 15.4% (95% confidence interval, 6.7% to 24.1%). These findings may inform prevention strategies and interventions directed towards relative carbohydrate intake and depression.
What is driving the relationship between height and cognition? Evidence from the Twins Early Development Study
Vikesh Amin & Jason Fletcher
Economics & Human Biology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Taller children tend to have better cognitive ability, and the relationship between height and cognition has been proposed as an explanation for the height-wage labor market premium. Height-cognition associations may arise due to social factors that favor taller individuals or be driven by “common factors” that are correlated with height and cognition. Indeed, there is now evidence of a genetic correlation between height and cognition that provides specific evidence for this concern. We examine whether genetic factors explain the relationship by estimating associations between childhood height and cognition in the Twins Early Development Study. We find that height is associated with better cognition even after controlling for genetic and environmental factors shared by twins. The association between height and cognition within fraternal twin pairs is also robust to controlling for individual genetic predictors of height and cognition. These results suggest that genetic factors are not solely responsible for driving the relationship between height and cognition.