Price of Gases
Counteracting electric vehicle range concern with a scalable behavioural intervention
Mario Herberz, Ulf Hahnel & Tobias Brosch
Nature Energy, June 2022, Pages 503-510
Abstract:
All-electric vehicles remain far from reaching the market share required to meaningfully reduce transportation-related CO2 emissions. While financial and technological adoption barriers are increasingly being removed, psychological barriers remain insufficiently addressed. Here we show that car owners systematically underestimate the compatibility of available battery ranges with their annual mobility needs and that this underestimation is associated with increased demand for long battery ranges and reduced willingness to adopt electric vehicles. We tested a simple intervention to counteract this bias: providing tailored compatibility information reduced range concern and increased willingness to pay for electric vehicles with battery ranges between 60 and 240 miles, relative to a 50-mile-range baseline model. Compatibility information more strongly increased willingness to pay than did information about easy access to charging infrastructure, and it selectively increased willingness to pay for car owners who would derive greater financial benefits from adopting an electric vehicle. This scalable intervention may complement classical policy approaches to promote the electrification of mobility.
Decomposing Trends in U.S. Air Pollution Disparities from Electricity
Danae Hernandez-Cortes, Kyle Meng & Paige Weber
NBER Working Paper, July 2022
Abstract:
This paper quantifies and decomposes recent trends in U.S. PM2.5 disparities from the electricity sector using a high-resolution pollution transport model. Between 2000-2018, PM2.5 concentrations from electricity fell by 89% for the average individual, more than double the decline rate in overall U.S. ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Across racial/ethnic groups, we detect a dramatic convergence: since 2000, the Black-White PM2.5 disparity from electricity has narrowed by 95% and the Hispanic-White PM2.5 disparity has narrowed by 93%, though these disparities still exist in 2018. A decomposition reveals nearly all of these disparity trends can be attributed roughly equally to improvements in emissions intensities and compositional changes in electric generators, with small contributions from scale and residential location changes. This suggests both local air pollution policies and recent coal-to-natural gas fuel switching have played major roles in reducing U.S. racial/ethnic pollution disparities from electricity. While we detect similarly large PM2.5 improvements for the average low and high income individual, PM2.5 disparities by income are relatively small, with little change over time.
Green Cloud? An Empirical Analysis of Cloud Computing and Energy Efficiency|
Jiyong Park, Kunsoo Han & Byungtae Lee
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
The rapid, widespread adoption of cloud computing over the last decade has sparked debates on its environmental impacts. Given that cloud computing alters the dynamics of energy consumption between service providers and users, a complete understanding of the environmental impacts of cloud computing requires an investigation of its impact on the user side, which can be weighed against its impact on the vendor side. Drawing on production theory and using a stochastic frontier analysis, this study examines the impact of cloud computing on users’ energy efficiency. To this end, we develop a novel industry-level measure of cloud computing based on cloud-based information technology (IT) services. Using U.S. economy-wide data from 57 industries during 1997–2017, our findings suggest that cloud-based IT services improve users’ energy efficiency. This effect is found to be significant only after 2006, when cloud computing started to be commercialized, and becomes even stronger after 2010. Moreover, we find heterogeneous impacts of cloud computing, depending on the cloud service models, energy types, and internal IT hardware intensity, which jointly assist in teasing out the underlying mechanisms. Although software-as-a-service (SaaS) is significantly associated with both electric and nonelectric energy efficiency improvement across all industries, infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) is positively associated only with electric energy efficiency for industries with high IT hardware intensity. To illuminate the mechanisms more clearly, we conduct a firm-level survey analysis, which demonstrates that SaaS confers operational benefits by facilitating energy-efficient production, whereas the primary role of IaaS is to mitigate the energy consumption of internal IT equipment and infrastructure. According to our industry-level analysis, the total user-side energy cost savings from cloud computing in the overall U.S. economy are estimated to be USD 2.8–12.6 billion in 2017 alone, equivalent to a reduction in electricity use by 31.8–143.8 billion kilowatt-hours. This estimate exceeds the total energy expenditure in the cloud service vendor industries and is comparable to the total electricity consumption in U.S. data centers.
The Cost of Greening Stimulus: A Dynamic Analysis of Vehicle Scrappage Programs
Shanjun Li, Youming Liu & Chao Wei
International Economic Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper investigates the potential tradeoff between the stimulus and environmental objectives in the context of the U.S. vehicle scrappage program. We develop and estimate a dynamic model of vehicle ownership and conduct a counterfactual analysis comparing the implemented policy with alternative designs. We find the cost of the implemented policy 25 percent higher in terms of induced sales and 64 percent higher in terms of induced spending than a policy design without the environmental objective. The findings serve as a caution for green stimulus programs to address both climate change and the economic crisis from the ongoing pandemic.
The Fertility Consequences of Air Pollution in China
Xuwen Gao, Ran Song & Christopher Timmins
NBER Working Paper, June 2022
Abstract:
We incorporate pollution exposure into Becker’s “Quantity-Quality” (Q-Q) model of fertility and quantify how air pollution distorts individuals’ fertility behaviors in China. We document a robust pattern in which increased pollution over time negatively affects the fertility of ethnic Han people, who comprise approximately 92% of the Chinese population. These patterns are evident in both cross-sectional and panel data, when instrumenting for pollution using distant coal-fired plants upwind of cities or thermal inversions that trap pollution. Consistent with the stylized Q-Q model of fertility, we find that increased pollution drives up the parental expenditure per child, which increases the shadow price associated with the number of children and reduces fertility. Consistent with the model, we also find that the fertility choices of people who tend to have higher demand for child quality are significantly more sensitive to pollution changes. Pollution does not have a meaningful effect on the fertility of ethnic minorities, which can also be explained under the Q-Q framework.
Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming
Savin Chand et al.
Nature Climate Change, July 2022, Pages 655–661
Abstract:
Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable.
Expecting Floods: Firm Entry, Employment, and Aggregate Implications
Ruixue Jia, Xiao Ma & Victoria Wenxin Xie
NBER Working Paper, July 2022
Abstract:
Flood events and flood risk have been increasing in the past few decades and have important consequences for the economy. Using county-level and ZIP-code-level data from the United States during 1998–2018, we document that (1) increased flood risk has a large negative impact on firm entry, employment, and output in the long run; and (2) flood events reduce output in the short run while their impact on firm entry and employment is limited. Motivated by these findings, we construct a spatial equilibrium model to characterize how flood risk shapes firms’ location choices and workers’ employment, which we use to estimate the aggregate impact of increased flood risk on the economy. We find that flood risk reduced U.S. aggregate output by 0.52% in 2018, 80% of which stemmed from expectation effects and 20% from direct damages. We also apply our model to study the distributional consequences and forecast the impact of future changes in flood risk. Our results highlight the importance of considering the adjustment of firms and workers in response to risk in evaluating the consequences of natural disasters.
Pollution pictures: Psychological exposure to pollution impacts worker productivity in a large-scale field experiment
Nikolai Cook & Anthony Heyes
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, July 2022
Abstract:
While contemporaneous exposure to polluted air has been shown to reduce labor supply and worker productivity, little is known about the underlying channels. We present first causal evidence that psychological exposure to pollution -- the “thought of pollution” -- can influence employment performance. Over 2000 recruits on a leading micro-task platform are exposed to otherwise identical images of polluted (treated) or unpolluted (control) scenes. Randomization across the geographically-dispersed workforce ensures that treatment is orthogonal to physical pollution exposure. Treated workers are less likely to accept a subsequent offer of work (labor supply) despite being offered a piece-rate much higher than is typical for the setting. Conditional on accepting the offer, treated workers complete between 5.1% to 10.1% less work depending on the nature of their assigned task. We find no effect on work quality. Suggestive evidence points to the role of induced negative sentiment. Decrements to productivity through psychological mechanisms are plausibly additional to any from physical exposure to polluted air.
Global ocean lipidomes show a universal relationship between temperature and lipid unsaturation
Henry Holm et al.
Science, 24 June 2022, Pages 1487-1491
Abstract:
Global-scale surveys of plankton communities using “omics” techniques have revolutionized our understanding of the ocean. Lipidomics has demonstrated the potential to add further essential insights on ocean ecosystem function but has yet to be applied on a global scale. We analyzed 930 lipid samples across the global ocean using a uniform high-resolution accurate-mass mass spectrometry analytical workflow, revealing previously unknown characteristics of ocean planktonic lipidomes. Focusing on 10 molecularly diverse glycerolipid classes, we identified 1151 distinct lipid species, finding that fatty acid unsaturation (i.e., number of carbon-carbon double bonds) is fundamentally constrained by temperature. We predict substantial declines in the essential fatty acid eicosapentaenoic acid over the next century, which are likely to have serious deleterious effects on economically critical fisheries.
Uncharted Waters: Effects of Maritime Emission Regulation
Jamie Hansen-Lewis & Michelle Marcus
NBER Working Paper, June 2022
Abstract:
Maritime shipping emits as much fine particulate matter as half of global road traffic. We are the first to measure the consequences of US maritime emissions standards on air quality, human health, racial exposure disparities, and behavior. The introduction of US maritime emissions control areas significantly decreased fine particulate matter, low birth weight, and infant mortality. Yet, only about half of the forecasted fine particulate matter abatement was achieved by the policy. We show evidence consistent with behavioral responses among ship operators, other polluters, and individuals that muted the policy's impact, but were not incorporated in ex-ante models.
Future reversal of warming-enhanced vegetation productivity in the Northern Hemisphere
Yichen Zhang et al.
Nature Climate Change, June 2022, Pages 581–586
Abstract:
Climatic warming has greatly increased vegetation productivity in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere since the 1980s, but how long this positive relationship will continue remains unknown. Here we show changes in the effect of warming on Northern Hemisphere summer gross primary productivity for 2001–2100 using Earth system model outputs. The correlation between summer gross primary productivity and temperature decreases in temperate and boreal regions by the late twenty-first century, generally becoming significantly negative before 2070 in regions <60° N, though Arctic gross primary productivity continues to increase with further summer warming. The time when the correlation becomes negative is generally later than the time when summer temperature exceeds the optimal temperature for vegetation productivity, suggesting partial mitigation of the negative vegetation impacts of future warming with photosynthetic thermal acclimation. Our findings indicate that vegetation productivity could be impaired by climate change in the twenty-first century, which could negatively impact the global land carbon sink.
Glacial ice supports a distinct and undocumented polar bear subpopulation persisting in late 21st-century sea-ice conditions
Kristin Laidre et al.
Science, 17 June 2022, Pages 1333-1338
Abstract:
Polar bears are susceptible to climate warming because of their dependence on sea ice, which is declining rapidly. We present the first evidence for a genetically distinct and functionally isolated group of polar bears in Southeast Greenland. These bears occupy sea-ice conditions resembling those projected for the High Arctic in the late 21st century, with an annual ice-free period that is >100 days longer than the estimated fasting threshold for the species. Whereas polar bears in most of the Arctic depend on annual sea ice to catch seals, Southeast Greenland bears have a year-round hunting platform in the form of freshwater glacial mélange. This suggests that marine-terminating glaciers, although of limited availability, may serve as previously unrecognized climate refugia. Conservation of Southeast Greenland polar bears, which meet criteria for recognition as the world’s 20th polar bear subpopulation, is necessary to preserve the genetic diversity and evolutionary potential of the species.