Popularity contest
When Politics Is a Woman's Game: Party and Gender Ownership in Woman-Versus-Woman Elections
Lindsey Meeks & David Domke
Communication Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Research on the interplay of gender and political party in voters' candidate evaluations has long focused on all-male elections and more recently on mixed-gender elections. This study takes the next theoretical step and focuses on woman-versus-woman elections. Specifically, we examine political party- and gender-based "ownerships" of political issues and character traits in the context of female-only elections. With an experimental design, adult participants were randomly assigned to read news articles that presented either two Republican or two Democratic women competing for Governor. Candidates were presented as "owning" stereotypically masculine or feminine issues and traits. Findings show that self-identified Democrats and Republicans eschewed the so-called masculine candidate, and preferred instead a partisan woman who created a gender balance of masculinity and femininity.
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The Gendered Face of Partisan Politics: Consequences of Facial Sex Typicality for Vote Choice
Colleen Carpinella et al.
Political Communication, forthcoming
Abstract:
Facial cues are consequential for voters' behavior at the polls. Yet the facial cues that are associated with vote choice remain under-examined. We predicted that vote choice judgments rely, in part, on the sex typicality of facial cues (i.e., the degree of facial masculinity and femininity) that vary as a function of candidate gender and partisan identification. Stimuli included image pairs of winners and runners-up in the elections for the 111th U.S. House of Representatives. In Study 1, we found that female Republican candidates who appeared relatively more feminine and male Republican candidates who looked relatively less masculine in their appearance were more likely to win their election. Democratic candidates' electoral success was not related to their sex typicality. In Study 2, we found that relatively masculine-appearing Democrats and feminine-appearing Republicans were more likely to be selected in a hypothetical vote choice task. Implications for U.S. partisan politics are discussed.
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Electoral institutions, gender stereotypes, and women's local representation
Melody Crowder-Meyer, Shana Kushner Gadarian & Jessica Trounstine
Politics, Groups and Identities, Spring 2015, Pages 318-334
Abstract:
Despite dramatic progress in winning election to political office, women remain underrepresented at all levels of government in the USA. A great deal of research has focused on institutional barriers to equal representation, particularly at the city level. Yet, the findings have been inconsistent across studies and little attention has been paid to the possible mechanisms that might account for the relationships between institutions and representation. In this paper, we focus on one particularly well-studied institution – the method of election for city councilors. We use a decade of candidate-level data from a single, large state (California) to show that women are significantly advantaged in district (versus at-large) elections and in city clerkships compared with mayoralties and council positions. We suggest that this may be the result of the competitiveness of elections, the status of the offices, and gender stereotypes. We offer support for this argument by analyzing the proportion of women elected to city councils and the probability of victory for different types of offices including city council, mayor, and city clerk.
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John Goodell, Frank McGroarty & Andrew Urquhart
International Review of Financial Analysis, forthcoming
Abstract:
Political uncertainty is increasingly seen as important to financial markets. Particularly US presidential election uncertainty is linked to uncertainty regarding future US macroeconomic policy. But what is the best vehicle to measure political uncertainty? We examine both the cointegration and causal relationships between the Iowa and Intrade presidential futures markets (IOWA, INTRADE), along with the results of election polls (POLLS); as well as published election predictions of Nate Silver (SILVER), who was arguably the most followed political forecaster during the 2012 presidential election season. We document strong evidence that SILVER and the two prediction markets were all highly cointegrated; while POLLS was not. Consistent with the assertion made by others that INTRADE prices were manipulated in 2012 for non-pecuniary reasons, we also evidence that IOWA and SILVER both Granger-caused INTRADE. Our findings are also consistent with previous findings that election markets outperform polls as prediction vehicles. Overall, while confirming that INTRADE, IOWA and SILVER are cointegrated, we note that the three series consistently differed in the degree of optimism in an Obama victor. These results pose important questions for researchers interested in estimating political uncertainty, and assessing the efficacy of prediction markets and their international integration.
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Benjamin Lauderdale & Drew Linzer
International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming
Abstract:
U.S. presidential election forecasts are of widespread interest to political commentators, campaign strategists, research scientists, and the public. We argue that most fundamentals-based political science forecasts overstate what historical political and economic factors can tell us about the probable outcome of a forthcoming presidential election. Existing approaches generally overlook the uncertainty in coefficient estimates, decisions about model specifications, and the translation from popular vote shares to Electoral College outcomes. We introduce a Bayesian forecasting model for state-level presidential elections that accounts for each of these sources of error, and allows for the inclusion of structural predictors at both the national and state levels. Applying the model to presidential election data from 1952 to 2012, we demonstrate that, for covariates with typical levels of predictive power, the 95% prediction intervals for presidential vote shares should span approximately ±10% at the state level and ±7% at the national level.
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Origins of Presidential poll aggregation: A perspective from 2004 to 2012
Samuel Wang
International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming
Abstract:
US political reporting has become extraordinarily rich in polling data. However, this increase in information availability has not been matched by an improvement in the accuracy of poll-based news stories, which usually examine a single survey at a time, rather than providing an aggregated, more accurate view. In 2004, I developed a meta-analysis that reduced the polling noise for the Presidential race by reducing all available state polls to a snapshot at a single time, known as the Electoral Vote estimator. Assuming that Presidential pollsters are accurate in the aggregate, the snapshot has an accuracy equivalent to less than ±0.5% in the national popular-vote margin. The estimator outperforms both the aggregator FiveThirtyEight and the betting market InTrade. Complex models, which adjust individual polls and employ pre-campaign "fundamental" variables, improve the accuracy in individual states but provide little or no advantage in overall performance, while at the same time reducing transparency. A polls-only snapshot can also identify shifts in the race, with a time resolution of a single day, thus assisting in the identification of discrete events that influence a race. Finally, starting at around Memorial Day, variations in the polling snapshot over time are sufficient to enable the production of a high-quality, random-drift-based prediction without a need for the fundamentals that are traditionally used by political science models. In summary, the use of polls by themselves can capture the detailed dynamics of Presidential races and make predictions. Taken together, these qualities make the meta-analysis a sensitive indicator of the ups and downs of a national campaign — in short, a precise electoral thermometer.
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Saving Face: Identifying Voter Responses to Black Candidates and Female Candidates
Yanna Krupnikov, Spencer Piston & Nichole Bauer
Political Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Much of what we know about the responses of voters to Black candidates and female candidates comes from experimental research. Yet the accuracy of experimental data can be threatened by the possibility that social desirability pressures contaminate self-reporting. We address this threat in a project that considers psychological approaches to reducing social desirability pressures. Offering participants the opportunity to explain their decisions about sensitive subjects, such as voting for a Black or female candidate, can lessen social desirability pressures. We analyze this approach across three commonly used samples: undergraduate, adult convenience, and adult national. Our results suggest that existing experimental research overestimates voter support for Black and female candidates, but these issues can be mitigated with the simple innovation presented here.
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Media competition and electoral politics
Amedeo Piolatto & Florian Schuett
Journal of Public Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We build a framework linking competition in the media market to political participation. Media outlets report on the ability of candidates running for office and compete for audience through their choice of slant. Citizens consume news only if the expected utility of being informed about candidates' ability is sufficiently large for their group collectively. Our results can reconcile seemingly contradictory empirical evidence showing that entry in the media market can either increase or decrease turnout. While information pushes up independent turnout, partisans adjust their turnout to the ability of their preferred candidate, and on average they vote less when informed.
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Realizing "strategic" voting in presidential primaries
Gar Culbert
Rationality and Society, May 2015, Pages 224-256
Abstract:
Those who study vote choice in presidential nominating contests often ask, "Are voters sincere (voting with their 'true' preferences), are they sophisticated (giving more weight to a candidate's chances of winning the nomination), or are they strategic (placing greater value on a candidate's chances of winning a general election)?" By analyzing survey data from the 1984, 1988, 2000, and 2004 presidential nominating contests, this study argues that voters are more strategic than previously understood, and that prior studies, confined by methodology and data, are often mistaken when they maintain that primary voters are sophisticated. In actuality, primary voters are more likely to cast strategic votes, and not sophisticated ones.
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Passion or Dollars? How Mobilization Can Spoil the Mother's Milk of Politics
Jeff Smith
Political Research Quarterly, June 2015, Pages 253-265
Abstract:
Evidence regarding the influence of campaign donations and lobbying efforts on legislative behavior is mixed. Much research — not to mention conventional wisdom — suggests that well-funded interest groups exploit their resource advantage by making campaign contributions and deploying lobbyists to gain informational advantages and influence legislation. Using contribution data, information about interest group support for legislation, and a rare data set — constituent contacts to six state legislative offices — this paper examines how interest group donations and constituent activism influence outcomes. Although the amount of money contributed by groups supporting or opposing a bill did not affect its prospects, constituent contacts had a substantial impact. Political expenditures by business firms appear primarily to sustain an entrenched class of lobbyists and consultants.
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Early Voting: Do More Sites Lead to Higher Turnout?
Elliott Fullmer
Election Law Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
In both 2008 and 2012, about one-third of U.S. voters cast their ballots before Election Day. Reformers have argued that early voting lowers participation costs and should therefore increase turnout. Recent research, however, has reported that no positive relationship exists. The literature widely omits consideration of important differences in early voting implementation within states. I break from past research and measure early voting availability at the county level, where it often varies considerably. I rely on Election Assistance Commission data on the number of early voting sites available in 2008 and 2012. Specifically, I measure the effect of a county's early voting site density on turnout. My model controls for other known participation predictors, including lagged turnout, demographics, political variables, and voter identification requirements. Ultimately, I find that early voting site density has a significant and positive effect on voter turnout.
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State Party Competition and Citizens' Political Engagement
Patrick Flavin & Gregory Shufeldt
Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, forthcoming
Abstract:
Is living in a politically competitive state beneficial for democratic citizenship? Given citizens' generally limited information about state politics, we argue that the most effective method of evaluating this question is by examining the degree to which the two parties generally compete for control of state government. Using data on citizens' political attitudes and participation from the American National Election Studies and the Ranney measure of state party competition, we investigate the relationship between state party competition and citizen engagement from 1952 to 2008. Our analysis reveals that citizens report more interest in politics and participate at higher rates when there is greater competition between the two parties in their state. We also find that the relationship between competition and engagement has varied over time and that it is the strongest among citizens with lower levels of education and income. These findings suggest that vigorous competition for control of state government has important implications for citizens' political engagement and, ultimately, the quality of democracy in the American states.
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Talking the Talk but Not Walking the Walk: Public Reactions to Hypocrisy in Political Scandal
Monika McDermott, Douglas Schwartz & Sebastian Vallejo
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Aggregate, survey, and experimental research into political scandal teaches us how the public reacts to revelations of misdeeds on behalf of its elected representatives. One common scenario, however, has been largely overlooked in scandal studies: the effects of hypocrisy in scandal. Examples abound of politicians who campaign on values that they then directly betray with their actions in office. Conventional wisdom, however, holds that such hypocrisy is an unpardonable transgression. We examine whether and how hypocrisy affects public reactions to political scandal and its perpetrators. Using a Quinnipiac University survey experiment, we demonstrate that negative judgments of a hypothetical politician caught in an adulterous relationship not only vary by degree depending on the presence or absence of hypocrisy but that they also vary by type of judgment. Individuals generally react more negatively to politicians in hypocritical scandal situations than nonhypocritical ones. In addition, a hypocritical situation affects public judgments of a politician's competence in office, above and beyond other judgments, demonstrating an added professional aspect to judgments of scandals when they involve hypocrisy.
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Super Tuesday: Campaign finance and the dynamics of sequential elections
Rainer Schwabe
Social Choice and Welfare, April 2015, Pages 927-951
Abstract:
I develop a model of campaign finance in primary elections in which campaigns, which supply hard information about candidates' electability, must be financed by strategic donors. I provide a rationale for Super Tuesday electoral calendars in which a block of voters vote simultaneously early in the election followed by other voters voting sequentially. For a range of campaign costs, such a calendar maximizes expected donations to nomination campaigns and, thus, the ex-ante probability of electing the best candidate over all possible electoral calendars.
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Voice Lessons: Rethinking the Relationship Between Education and Political Participation
Meghan Condon
Political Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
The association between education and political participation is one of the strongest and most reliable in American politics, but it is poorly understood. Whether human capital acquired through education affects participation remains unknown. Most studies of this question restrict measurement of human capital to years of schooling (attainment) or civics knowledge. But attainment is a weak instrument for human capital, which varies considerably within attainment levels. And skills beyond civics — particularly verbal communication skills — are politically important. With data from the National Education Longitudinal Study, I examine the relationship between verbal skills acquired in school during adolescence and participation later in life. I find a strong positive effect, showing that when young people learn to use their voices in school, they are more likely to speak up as participatory adults. The findings reveal an important mechanism by which education affects democratic life, call for a broadening of the empirical treatment of education in political science, and suggest an answer to the puzzle of participation.
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The Long and Short of It: The Unpredictability of Late Deciding Voters
Janet Box-Steffensmeier et al.
Electoral Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
We examine the long- and short-campaign forces and their effects on the error variance in models of presidential voting decisions. Using a heteroskedastic probit allows a separate equation for the error variance and thus insight into campaign effects on uncertainty. Controlling for political sophistication, partisan strength and ambivalence, the choices of voters deciding later in the campaign are consistently less predictable. This is important because the number of late deciders has increased in recent elections. Furthermore, ambivalence and residing in a battleground state are stronger sources of error variance among late deciders.
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Party Nomination Rules and Campaign Participation
Georgia Kernell
Comparative Political Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study examines how political party organizations shape campaign participation in advanced industrialized parliamentary democracies. In some parties, members directly nominate candidates to run for parliament. In others, selection is the sole responsibility of the party leadership. Two countervailing arguments are presented: one stating that member participation will increase incentives to get involved in campaigns; the other contending that democratic nominations expose internal party divisions and depress participation. The hypotheses are tested using cross-national election surveys and original candidate selection data. Participation is measured in two ways: campaign activity and political persuasion. The results suggest that partisans are more likely to participate when leaders, rather than members, select candidates. In addition, the article examines the role of party ideology, size, incumbency, and heterogeneity in shaping participation.