Police report
Police Officer on the Frontline or a Soldier? The Effect of Police Militarization on Crime
Vincenzo Bove & Evelina Gavrilova
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Sparked by high-profile confrontations between police and citizens in Ferguson, Missouri, and elsewhere, many commentators have criticized the excessive militarization of law enforcement. We investigate whether surplus military-grade equipment acquired by local police departments from the Pentagon has an effect on crime rates. We use temporal variations in US military expenditure and between-counties variations in the odds of receiving a positive amount of military aid to identify the causal effect of militarized policing on crime. We find that (i) military aid reduces street-level crime; (ii) the program is cost-effective; and (iii) there is evidence in favor of a deterrence mechanism.
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David Humphreys, Antonio Gasparrini & Douglas Wiebe
JAMA Internal Medicine, forthcoming
Design, Setting, and Participants: Using an interrupted time series design, we analyzed monthly rates of homicide and homicide by firearm in Florida between 1999 and 2014. Data were collected from the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) web portal at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We used seasonally adjusted segmented Poisson regression models to assess whether the onset of the law was associated with changes in the underlying trends for homicide and homicide by firearm in Florida. We also assessed the association using comparison states without stand your ground laws (New York, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia) and control outcomes (all suicides and suicides by firearm in Florida). October 1, 2005, the effective date of the law, was used to define homicides before and after the change.
Results: Prior to the stand your ground law, the mean monthly homicide rate in Florida was 0.49 deaths per 100 000 (mean monthly count, 81.93), and the rate of homicide by firearm was 0.29 deaths per 100 000 (mean monthly count, 49.06). Both rates had an underlying trend of 0.1% decrease per month. After accounting for underlying trends, these results estimate that after the law took effect there was an abrupt and sustained increase in the monthly homicide rate of 24.4% (relative risk [RR], 1.24; 95%CI, 1.16-1.33) and in the rate of homicide by firearm of 31.6% (RR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.21-1.44). No evidence of change was found in the analyses of comparison states for either homicide (RR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.98-1.13) or homicide by firearm (RR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.99-1.17). Furthermore, no changes were observed in control outcomes such as suicide (RR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.94-1.05) and suicide by firearm (RR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.91-1.06) in Florida between 2005 and 2014.
Conclusions and Relevance: The implementation of Florida’s stand your ground self-defense law was associated with a significant increase in homicides and homicides by firearm but no change in rates of suicide or suicide by firearm.
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Disenfranchisement and Over-Incarceration
Murat Mungan
George Mason University Working Paper, November 2016
Abstract:
Disenfranchisement laws in many states prohibit convicted felons from voting. The removal of ex-convicts from the pool of eligible voters reduces the pressure politicians may otherwise face to protect the interests of this group. In particular, disenfranchisement laws may cause the political process to push the sentences for criminal offenses upwards. In this article, I construct a simple model with elected law enforcers who propose sentences to maximize their likelihood of election. I show, with the help of the median voter theorem, that even without disenfranchisement, elections typically generate over-incarceration, i.e. longer than optimal sentences. Disenfranchisement further widens the gap between the optimal sentence and the equilibrium sentence, and thereby exacerbates the problem of over-incarceration. Moreover, this result is valid even when voter turnout is negatively correlated with people's criminal tendencies, i.e. when criminals vote less frequently than non-criminals.
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Dial 911 for Murder: The Impact of Emergency Response Time on Homicides
Thomas Stratmann & David Chandler Thomas
George Mason University Working Paper, September 2016
Abstract:
Several theories have been offered to explain the recent declines in violent crime rates in the United States. We hypothesize that technological innovations, which improved information transmission and shortened the response time between an aggravated assault incident and treatment, reduced the cost of saving lives and caused much of the decline in homicide rates in recent decades. Using difference-in-differences and event studies, we show that improvements in emergency services (9-1-1) caused significant decreases in homicide rates. Various falsification tests support these findings.
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Can Homicide Detectives Improve Homicide Clearance Rates?
Anthony Braga & Desiree Dusseault
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
The available scientific evidence on the value of detectives in clearing crimes generally suggests that most crimes are solved through the random circumstances of crime scenes rather than special follow-up investigation. Other research, however, suggests that the work of criminal investigators can increase the likelihood that crimes might be cleared through arrest. After years of homicide clearance rates that were lower than the national average, the Boston Police Department engaged a problem-oriented policing approach to improve their post-homicide criminal investigation processes and practices. Our quasi-experimental statistical analyses suggest that the intervention significantly increased key investigative activities and improved Boston homicide clearance rates relative to existing homicide clearance trends in other Massachusetts and U.S. jurisdictions.
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Quest for Significance and Violent Extremism: The Case of Domestic Radicalization
Katarzyna Jasko, Gary LaFree & Arie Kruglanski
Political Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
In the present study, we applied the quest for significance model of radicalization to explain the use of political violence. According to the model, when people experience loss of personal significance (e.g., due to social rejection, achievement failures, or abuse) the motivation to restore significance may push them toward the use of extreme means. We tested this prediction in a sample of individuals who have committed ideologically motivated crimes in the United States (n = 1496). We found that experiences of economic and social loss of significance were separate and positive predictors related to the use of violence by perpetrators of ideologically motivated crimes. We also found evidence that the presence of radicalized others (friends but not family members) in the individuals' social network increased their likelihood of using violence.
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Lone-Actor Terrorist Target Choice
Paul Gill & Emily Corner
Behavioral Sciences & the Law, September/October 2016, Pages 693–705
Abstract:
Lone-actor terrorist attacks have risen to the forefront of the public's consciousness in the past few years. Some of these attacks were conducted against public officials. The rise of hard-to-detect, low-tech attacks may lead to more public officials being targeted. This paper explores whether different behavioral traits are apparent within a sample of lone-actor terrorists who plotted against high-value targets (including public officials) than within a sample of lone actors who plotted against members of the public. Utilizing a unique dataset of 111 lone-actor terrorists, we test a series of hypotheses related to attack capability and operational security. The results indicate that very little differentiates those who attack high-value targets from those who attack members of the public. We conclude with a series of illustrations to theorize why this may be the case.
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The certainty versus the severity of punishment, repeat offenders, and stigmatization
Murat Mungan
Economics Letters, January 2017, Pages 126–129
Abstract:
There is a widely held presumption among criminologists that the certainty of punishment (p) is a greater deterrent than the severity of punishment (s). This presumption is at odds with recent experimental work as well as the implications of simple law enforcement models. This article shows that when offenses may be committed repeatedly, p may have a greater deterrent effect than s, even when each individual offender is more responsive to s than p. This resolves the discrepancy between experimental results and the common belief held among criminologists.
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Do Street Robbery Location Choices Vary Over Time of Day or Day of Week? A Test in Chicago
Wim Bernasco, Stijn Ruiter & Richard Block
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, forthcoming
Objectives: This article examines the hypothesis that in street robbery location choices, the importance of location attributes is conditional on the time of day and on the day of the week.
Method: The hypothesis is assessed by estimating and comparing separate discrete location choice models for each two-hour time block of the day and for each day of the week. The spatial units of analysis are census blocks. Their relevant attributes include presence of various legal and illegal cash economies, presence of high schools, measures of accessibility, and distance from the offender’s home.
Results: The hypothesis is strongly rejected because for almost all census block attributes, their importance hardly depends on time of day or day of week. Only the effect of high schools in census blocks follows expectations, as its effect is only demonstrated at the times and on the days that schools are open.
Conclusions: The results suggest that street robbers’ location choices are not as strongly driven by spatial variations in immediate opportunities as has been suggested in previous studies. Rather, street robbers seem to perpetrate in the environs of cash economies and transit hubs most of the time irrespective of how many potential victims are around.
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Do More Guns Lead to More Crime? Understanding the Role of Illegal Firearms
Umair Khalil
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using a detailed jurisdiction-quarter level dataset, I create a proxy for illegal firearm flows: the number of firearms reported stolen in each police jurisdiction, and map their effect on crime in the U.S. Estimates show a strong, positive impact of increased stolen firearms, in the previous quarters, on firearm aggravated assaults, homicides, and robberies in the current quarter. However, no statistically significant relationship is estimated between firearm flows and non-firearm offenses, providing a crucial falsification test. Various other robustness checks, including an analysis of potential spillovers in illegal firearm flows, find no evidence of a spurious relationship driving the results.
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Daniel O'Connell, John Brent & Christy Visher
Criminology & Public Policy, November 2016, Pages 1073–1102
Abstract:
This study used a randomized controlled trial approach with a sample of 400 high-risk probationers to test the hypothesis that a program incorporating principles of deterrence, graduated sanctions, and coerced abstinence would reduce recidivism rates among drug-using offenders. Bivariate and multilevel modeling strategies were implemented. Findings revealed no discernable difference across multiple drug use, probationary, and recidivism measures between those randomized into the treatment condition and those receiving standard probation. In multivariate models, probationer age, employment status, and treatment participation improved some recidivism outcomes. Programmatic and sample characteristics are discussed regarding the lack of experimental effect.
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Lauren Wright, Thomas Vander Ven & Clara Fesmire
Criminal Justice Review, December 2016, Pages 446-468
Abstract:
Little is known about the social correlates of serial rape or about trends in offending across time and space in the United States. Furthermore, the limited serial rape scholarship that exists was largely generalized from small, captive samples. The current study aims to amplify our understanding of serial rape by pursuing three fundamental objectives. First, guided by theory and research we propose a new, more precise, and comprehensive conceptualization of serial rape. Next, we draw from media representations of serial rape published in five major American newspapers from 1940 to 2010 to develop an offender social profile and to identify patterns in attack style. Our analysis of a broad and diverse sample of serial offenders described in media accounts (N = 1,037) produced the following profile estimates — age: 27 years; race/ethnicity: African American, 46%; Caucasian, 29%; Latino, 19%; Asian, 5%. Most offenders were employed in unskilled or semiskilled occupations and the most common attack strategy was the surprise approach (47%). Finally, our data allow us to estimate and interpret historical trends as depicted in media accounts. Our analysis revealed low levels of serial rape in newspaper accounts during the 1940s to 1950s, followed by a steady increase (with periodic decreases) leading to a peak in 1991. This peak is followed by a steady and dramatic decline from 1992 to 2010.
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Zachary Hamilton et al.
Criminology & Public Policy, November 2016, Pages 1009–1072
Abstract:
In the wake of the mass incarceration movement, many states must now manage the rebound of decarceration. Thermodynamic forces of the justice system, however, have pushed former fiscal pressures of institutions onto that of community corrections. Encouraged by the positive findings of recently piloted innovations, several jurisdictions have taken great interest in the implementation of deterrence-based sanctioning models when dealing with supervision violations. Among the first to implement a statewide turn to this style of sanctioning, Washington State's swift-and-certain (SAC) policy was implemented in June 2012. The intent of SAC was to expand the model found in Hawaii's Opportunity Probation and Enforcement (HOPE) to a wider criminal justice population, while emphasizing the reduction of confinement costs. This study focused on the impact of SAC with regard to supervision outcomes for participants. By using a quasi-experimental design, we examined confinement, recidivism, treatment, violation, and costs outcomes of SAC participants. Findings reveal that SAC participants were found to incur fewer sanctioned incarceration days after a violation, reduced odds of recidivism, possessed greater treatment program utilization, reduced their propensity of committing violations over time, and as a result, imposed lower correctional and associated costs. The SAC model provides noteworthy positive effects and no appreciable negative impacts on public safety.
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Alyssa Chamberlain
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study examines the direct, reciprocal, and indirect effects of parolees on neighborhoods, including residential vacancies, property sales, public assistance, and crime. Cross-lagged autoregressive models are estimated using a unique data set containing annual neighborhood information on parolees, crime rates, and neighborhood structure in the city of Cleveland, Ohio, between 2000 and 2008. Results suggest parolees degrade neighborhood structure, and these effects are direct, reciprocal, and indirect. Understanding how the presence of parolees can contribute to changes in neighborhood processes linked to crime will broaden our understanding of the effects that parolees have on communities and highlight additional areas for intervention.
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The Consequences of Sex Offender Residency Restriction: Evidence from North Carolina
Songman Kang
International Review of Law and Economics, March 2017, Pages 10–22
Abstract:
In recent years, a number of state and local governments in the United States have imposed residency restrictions on sex offenders to lower the risk of repeat sex offenses against children. The restriction prohibits sex offenders from living near places where children regularly congregate, such as schools and daycare centers. In this paper, I estimate the effect of the North Carolina residency restriction on recidivism patterns of affected sex offenders by exploiting a quasi-experimental variation in the timing of the release. I find that the restriction increases the likelihood of a new property crime conviction within two years of release by 2.5 percentage points. On the other hand, the effect of the North Carolina residency restriction on the risk of repeat sex offenses is mostly modest, although the restriction seems to decrease the number of repeat sex offenses among newly-released and young sex offenders.
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Do Changes in TASER Use Policy Affect Police Officer Injury Rates?
Valerie Womack, Robert Morris & Stephen Bishopp
Police Quarterly, December 2016, Pages 410-434
Abstract:
The addition of TASERs as a less lethal use-of-force option for police officers has facilitated much discussion in recent scholarship. Many police agencies have responded with force policy changes specific to appropriate applications for these weapons. While the goal of these changes is often to minimize concern about injury to citizens, debate rests on whether injury rates for officers are influenced by such transitions in policy. The present study used officer injury panel data from the City of Dallas (Texas) Human Resources Department to assess the impact of a 2005 modification to the Dallas Police Department’s TASER policy. The goal of the study was to assess change in the rate of officer injury after the implementation of a more restrictive policy. We observed a modest increase in the monthly rate of police officer injuries following the policy restricting use. These results were found net of other effects, with some noteworthy between-patrol-division variation. Implications for TASER use policy and future research are discussed within.
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The Effects of Arrest, Reporting to the Police, and Victim Services on Intimate Partner Violence
Min Xie & James Lynch
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, forthcoming
Objectives: To estimate the effects of three types of responses to intimate partner violence: (1) reporting of crime to the police, (2) arresting the suspect, and (3) receiving services from agencies other than the police that assist victims of crime.
Methods: We obtained a nationally representative sample of 2,221 victims, using longitudinal records from the area-identified National Crime Victimization Survey from 1996 through 2012. To reduce the threat of nonrandom selection into treatment, we estimated effects using propensity score matched and weighted survival analysis.
Results: Victims’ probability of repeat victimization is not related to arrest (hazard ratio, 0.87; 95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.55 to 1.40; p = .57). In contrast, the reporting of crime to the police is associated with a 34 percent reduction in the risk of repeat victimization (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95 percent CI, 0.53 to 0.82; p < .001), and the use of victim services is associated with a 40 percent reduction in the risk of repeat victimization (hazard ratio, 0.60; 95 percent CI, 0.44 to 0.83; p < .01).
Conclusions: The results support a model in which the deterrent effect of arrest is not substantively important, but police notification and victim-centered services produce important reductions in repeat victimization.
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Expressive writing intervention promotes resilience among juvenile justice-involved youth
Chloe Greenbaum & Shabnam Javdani
Children and Youth Services Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Youth involved in child welfare and juvenile justice systems suffer from alarmingly high rates of mental health challenges. In particular, exposure to trauma (e.g., maltreatment) is one critical experience that amplifies their risk for delinquency and recidivism. Despite a profound need to address these youth's mental health needs, there is a paucity of trauma-informed and youth-centered treatments that are clinically feasible in under-resourced residential settings (e.g., juvenile detention facilities). In response to this gap, our research team collaborated with the juvenile justice subsection of a large American city's child welfare system with the goal of creating an intervention tailored to the needs of underserved system-involved youth. The resultant program, WRITE ON (Writing and Reflecting on Identity To Empower Ourselves as Narrators), leverages research on the therapeutic benefits of expressive writing to implement a brief, cost-effective intervention in youth residential settings. This paper describes intervention development and presents findings from the pilot study, which comprised a multisite experimental evaluation of youth (N = 53) residing in short-term detention facilities. This pilot study aimed to: 1) assess intervention implementation fidelity, including participant satisfaction, and 2) evaluate the mental health outcomes of youth receiving WRITE ON as compared to those in a comparison support group (CSG). Results indicated that the intervention was delivered with good fidelity, participants reported high levels of satisfaction, and WRITE ON participants exhibited significant (p < 0.01) gains in resilience compared to their counterparts in the CSG. Collectively, results suggest that a larger clinical trial investigating the effectiveness of WRITE ON with system-involved youth is warranted.
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Pamela Lattimore et al.
Criminology & Public Policy, November 2016, Pages 1103–1141
Abstract:
More than 1,500 probationers in four sites were randomly assigned to probation as usual (PAU) or to Honest Opportunity Probation with Enforcement (HOPE), which is modeled on Hawaii's Opportunity Probation with Enforcement (Hawaii HOPE) program that emphasizes close monitoring; frequent drug testing; and swift, certain, and fair (SCF) sanctioning. It also reserves scarce treatment resources for those most in need. The four sites offered heterogeneity in organizational relationships and populations as well as implementation that was rated very good to excellent — thus, providing a robust test of the HOPE supervision model. Recidivism results suggest that HOPE/SCF supervision was not associated with significant reductions in arrests over PAU with the exception of a reduction in drug-related arrests in one site. There were significant — albeit conflicting — differences in time to revocation, with survival models suggesting shorter times to revocation in two sites and longer times to revocation in one site.
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Tim Friehe & Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch
International Review of Law and Economics, March 2017, Pages 23–32
Abstract:
Low self-control is considered a fundamental cause of crime. The aim of our study is to provide causal evidence on the link between self-control and criminal behavior. We test whether individuals with lower self-control behave in a more antisocial manner and are less risk-averse and thus are, according to both the General Theory of Crime and the economic literature on criminal behavior, more likely to engage in criminal activities. In order to exogenously vary the level of self-control in a laboratory experiment, we use a well-established experimental manipulation, a so-called depletion task. We find that subjects with low self-control take more risk. The effect of self-control on antisocial behavior is small and not significant. In sum, our findings are consistent with the proposition that low self-control is a facilitator of crime to the extent that individuals with lower levels of self-control are less effectively deterred by probabilistic sanctions.
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Drew Kingston, Franklyn Graham & Raymond Knight
Archives of Sexual Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Hypersexuality, or extreme normophilic sexual urges and behaviors, is a controversial construct that was recently considered as a candidate disorder for the DSM-5 and was rejected. It was also rejected for inclusion in Section III (Conditions for Further Study). Nonetheless, it has been found to be an important predictor of recidivism among sex offenders, and it continues to be discussed widely in the literature. In the present study, we investigated the developmental roots of this construct in a sample of 529 adult male sexual offenders, who were administered the Multidimensional Assessment of Sex and Aggression. Physical, psychological, and sexual abuse experiences were estimated using several scales of early development. Psychological abuse in childhood and adolescence, especially by a father, was found to be the most prominent predictor of subsequent hypersexual thoughts and behaviors. The accumulation of abuse types, however, was also associated with a monotonic increase in the latent trait of hypersexuality. The consequences of these results for conceptualizations of the construct are discussed.