Perp Walk
Stand Your Ground Laws and Homicides
Chandler McClellan & Erdal Tekin
NBER Working Paper, June 2012
Abstract:
Since 2005, eighteen states have passed legislation that has extended the right to self-defense, with no duty to retreat, to places a person has a legal right to be, and several other states are debating to introduce similar legislation. The controversies surrounding these laws have captured the nation's attention recently. Despite significant implications that they may have on public safety, there has been little empirical investigation of the impact of these laws on crime and victimization. In this paper, we examine how Stand Your Ground laws that extend the right to self-defense to areas outside the home affect homicides using monthly data from the U.S. Vital Statistics. We identify the impact of these laws by exploiting the variation in the effective date of these laws across states. Our results indicate that Stand Your Ground laws are associated with a significant increase in the number of homicides among whites, especially white males. According to our estimates, between 4.39 and 7.44 additional white males are killed each month as a result of these laws. We find no evidence to suggest that these laws increase homicides among blacks. Our results are robust to a number of specifications and unlikely to be driven entirely by the killings of assailants. Taken together, our findings raise serious doubts against the argument that Stand Your Ground laws make America safer.
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Does Strengthening Self-Defense Law Deter Crime or Escalate Violence? Evidence from Castle Doctrine
Cheng Cheng & Mark Hoekstra
NBER Working Paper, June 2012
Abstract:
Since Florida adopted the first castle doctrine law in 2005, more than 20 other states have passed similar self-defense laws that justify the use of deadly force in a wider set of circumstances. Elements of these laws include removing the duty to retreat in places outside of one's home, adding a presumption of reasonable belief of imminent harm necessitating a lethal response, and removing civil liability for those acting under the law. This paper examines whether aiding self-defense in this way deters crime or, alternatively, escalates violence. To do so, we apply a difference-in-differences research design by exploiting the within-state variation in law adoption. We find no evidence of deterrence; burglary, robbery, and aggravated assault are unaffected by the laws. On the other hand, we find that murder and non-negligent manslaughter are increased by 7 to 9 percent. This could represent either increased use of lethal force in self-defense situations, or the escalation of violence in otherwise non-lethal situations. Regardless, the results indicate that a primary consequence of strengthening self-defense law is increased homicide.
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Effectiveness of Residence Restrictions in Preventing Sex Offense Recidivism
Matt Nobles, Jill Levenson & Tasha Youstin
Crime & Delinquency, July 2012, Pages 491-513
Abstract:
Many municipalities have recently extended residence restrictions for sex offenders beyond the provisions of state law, although the efficacy of these measures in reducing recidivism has not been empirically established. This study used arrest histories in Jacksonville, Florida, to assess the effects of a recently expanded municipal 2,500-foot residence restriction ordinance on sex crimes and sex offense recidivism. Using a quasiexperimental design, pre- and posttest measures of recidivism were compared, and no significant differences in citywide sex crimes or recidivist sex crimes were found. In addition, time-series analysis revealed no significant differences in sex crime trends over time when compared with nonsex crimes from the same offender sample. After controlling for several demographic factors, individual-level multivariate results indicate that the timing of the residence restriction policy was not associated with a meaningful change in sex crime arrests or sex offender recidivism after the policy implementation date, suggesting that the residence restriction did not achieve its intended goal of reducing recidivism.
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Racial differences in speeding patterns: Exploring the differential offending hypothesis
Rob Tillyer & Robin Engel
Journal of Criminal Justice, July-August 2012, Pages 285-295
Purpose: Disproportionate minority contact during traffic stops has been a consistent source of commentary and study in recent years. While various theoretical perspectives have been employed to explain these empirical findings, the differential offending hypotheses has been largely ignored as a viable alternative explanation. Building on existing empirical evidence regarding criminal offending patterns and driving patterns, we examined the veracity of this explanation using data from an observational study of urban driving behavior.
Methods: Data were collected using an observational methodology in an urban environment. These data were then used to estimate various regression models and test the differential offending hypothesis.
Results: Analytic models indicated that Black drivers speed more frequently and engage in more severe speeding compared to White drivers, net of controls.
Conclusions: The findings suggest that citizen risk for specific police behavior is partially attributable to differential behavior prior to the encounter. These results mirror the findings of previous research in other geographic locations using different methodologies; thus, contributing to the conclusion that understanding officer decision-making and behavior requires consideration of other factors beyond a citizen's race.
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A Multilevel Analysis of Hispanic Youth, Exposure to the United States, and Retail Theft
Richard Stansfield
Race and Social Problems, June 2012, Pages 121-132
Abstract:
Panel data in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97) provide an excellent opportunity to examine the relationship between Hispanic immigration, assimilation, and retail theft. This study examines the relationship between length of time Hispanic youth have spent in America, with the probability of stealing from a store. After controlling for traditional predictors of crime that are correlated with adolescence and immigrant status, random effects logistic regression models indicate that immigrants are less likely to steal than non-immigrants. However, calculating the marginal effects of time spent in the United States reveals that their probability increases with assimilation. Supplementary analyses specify that Hispanic youth who enter the United States within their first 5 years of age will have higher odds of engaging in retail theft. Supportive parenting and a structured home environment is a consistent protective factor in the models. Policies targeting pro-family and social identification are likely to benefit immigrant youth as they acculturate to America.
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Meghana Kakade et al.
American Journal of Public Health, July 2012, Pages 1307-1310
Abstract:
We used data from a national survey to examine arrest rate disparities between African American and White adolescents (aged 12-17 years; n = 6725) in relation to drug-related and other illegal behaviors. African American adolescents were less likely than Whites to have engaged in drug use or drug selling, but were more likely to have been arrested. Racial disparities in adolescent arrest appear to result from differential treatment of minority youths and to have long-term negative effects on the lives of affected African American youths.
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More Tickets, Fewer Accidents: How Cash-Strapped Towns Make for Safer Roads
Michael Makowsky & Thomas Stratmann
Journal of Law and Economics, November 2011, Pages 863-888
Abstract:
Traffic accidents are one of the leading causes of injury and death in the United States. The role of traffic law enforcement in the reduction of accidents has been studied by relatively few papers and with mixed results that may be due to a simultaneity problem. Traffic law enforcement may reduce the number of accidents, but police are also likely to be stricter in accident-prone areas. We use municipal budgetary shortfalls as an instrumental variable to identify the effect of traffic citations on traffic safety and show that budgetary shortfalls lead to more frequent issuance of tickets to drivers. Using a panel of municipalities in Massachusetts, we show that increases in the numbers of tickets written reduce the number of motor vehicle accidents and accident-related injuries. The findings show that failure to control for endogeneity results in a significant underestimation of the positive effect of law enforcement on traffic safety.
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The impact of determinate sentencing on prisoner misconduct
William Bales & Courtenay Miller
Journal of Criminal Justice, forthcoming
Purpose: The shift from indeterminate to determinate punishment policies over the past three decades may have the unintended consequence of increasing prisoner misconduct due to the elimination or reduction of parole and earned gain-time to provide incentives for inmates to comply with institutional rules. This paper advances the existing scholarship addressing this issue.
Methods: Data on a cohort of 305,228 inmates admitted to prison in Florida over a twelve year period before and after the enactment of a "truth-in-sentencing" law in 1995 requiring all felons sentenced to prison to serve a minimum 85% of their sentence are examined to assess the impact of determinate punishment on whether inmates commit disciplinary infractions and the frequency of misconduct.
Findings: The data show that determinate punishment has had the unintended consequence of significantly increasing the level of inmate misconduct in general and across different types of misconduct; violent, property, and disorderly.
Conclusion: The findings indicate that states which currently have or are considering the implementation of determinate sentencing should examine potential changes in policies and practices to alleviate the impact of reductions in inmate incentives to abide by institutional rules.
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Christopher Rosbough
Journal of Applied Security Research, Summer 2012, Pages 354-374
Abstract:
This study investigates whether the intervention of 9/11 security practices has reduced larcenies at the Atlanta International Airport in the context of the rational choice perspective. Data was recovered from the Atlanta Police Department from January 2000 through September 2010, and the data was analyzed using the interrupted time series method, ARIMA. Results note a drop in larceny crimes after the 9/11 intervention, both descriptively and via ARIMA results.
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Robbing banks: Crime does pay - but not very much
Barry Reilly, Neil Rickman & Robert Witt
Significance, June 2012, Pages 17-21
Abstract:
Robbing a bank is the staple crime of thrillers, movies and newspapers. But, say Barry Reilly, Neil Rickman and Robert Witt, bank robbery is not all it is cracked up to be. With access to a unique data set, they give us the low-down on the economics of the bank heist.
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Laurie Ragatz, William Fremouw & Edward Baker
Criminal Justice and Behavior, July 2012, Pages 978-997
Abstract:
The authors replicated Walters and Geyer (2004) by examining how white-collar offenders differ from non-white-collar offenders on criminal thinking and lifestyle criminality. To extend Walters and Geyer's work, they explored psychopathic characteristics and psychopathology of white-collar offenders compared with non-white-collar offenders. The study sample included 39 white-collar only offenders (offenders who had committed only white-collar crime), 88 white-collar versatile offenders (offenders who previously had committed non-white-collar crime), and 86 non-white-collar offenders incarcerated in a federal prison. Groups were matched on age and ethnicity. Offenders completed self-report measures of criminal thinking, psychopathic traits, and psychopathology. Lifestyle criminality was gathered via file review. Results demonstrated white-collar offenders had lower scores on lifestyle criminality but scored higher on some measures of psychopathology and psychopathic traits compared with non-white-collar offenders. White-collar versatile offenders were highest in criminal thinking. Logistic regression findings demonstrated that white-collar offenders could be distinguished from non-white-collar offenders by substance use.
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The Efficacy of County-Level Sex Offender Residence Restrictions in New York
Kelly Socia
Crime & Delinquency, July 2012, Pages 612-642
Abstract:
Residence restrictions seek to protect community members from registered sex offenders (RSOs) reentering society following incarceration. These policies, first passed in 1995 at the state level and in 2005 at the county and local levels, have become extremely popular throughout the United States but without proof that they are effective. To date, the research on these policies has been extremely limited and has largely focused on the unintended consequences that these policies cause for RSOs. This study examines whether county residence restrictions were associated with reduced sex crime arrest rates in New York State. In doing so, this study draws on the limited prior research regarding the effectiveness of residence restrictions and on the extensive literature regarding the incapacitation and deterrence of crime through public policy measures. Results indicate that residence restrictions were not associated with significantly reduced arrests for sex crimes committed either by RSOs (regardless of victim) or by non-RSOs against child victims. However, results suggested that these policies may be associated with a general deterrence effect, resulting in a decrease of sex crimes against adults by first-time sex offenders (non-RSOs). Implications for future research and policy making are discussed.
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Attitudes toward capital punishment: Educational, demographic, and neighborhood crime influences
Scott Maggard, Brian Payne & Allison Chappell
Social Science Journal, June 2012, Pages 155-166
Abstract:
Studying attitudes toward capital punishment has been a topic of interest for decades. Indeed, it is often the subject of Gallup polls, political commentary, and social science research. Research indicates that attitudes vary by demographic factors, educational influences, and neighborhood crime rates. Building on prior research, the current study examined death penalty attitudes among 599 college students and 213 residents from high crime and low crime neighborhoods. In particular, the research investigated differences between how students and residents view the death penalty as no research to date has analyzed this issue. The authors also analyzed how different populations perceived the impact of race on the administration of the death penalty. Results suggested that demographics, especially race, have the strongest impact on death penalty attitudes, but that there are few differences between students and residents and those living in high and low crime neighborhoods.
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Punishment and Welfare: Paternal Incarceration and Families' Receipt of Public Assistance
Naomi Sugie
Social Forces, forthcoming
Abstract:
The United States criminal justice and welfare systems are two important government institutions in the lives of the poor. Despite many theoretical discussions about their relationship, their operation at the level of offenders and families remains poorly understood. This paper utilizes Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing data to examine how recent paternal incarceration is associated with families' receipt of TANF, food stamps, and Medicaid/SCHIP. Results robust to multiple tests find that incarceration is not related to subsequent TANF receipt but is significantly associated with increased receipt of food stamps and Medicaid/SCHIP. The findings suggest that greater government involvement among poor families is an unexpected consequence of mass imprisonment; however, increased participation does not include TANF - the cash assistance program of most concern to theorists.
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Race group differences in prison victimization experiences
John Wooldredge & Benjamin Steiner
Journal of Criminal Justice, forthcoming
Purpose: To assess differences in victimization risk between African American and white, non-Latino inmates, and to estimate race group differences in the correlates of victimization.
Methods: Random samples totaling 2,403 African Americans and 3,150 whites were drawn from all state prisons in Ohio and Kentucky and all private prisons in Ohio (n = 46). Race-specific bi-level models of physical assaults and property thefts were estimated. Differences between race-specific models in the magnitude of regression coefficients for the same predictors and outcomes were compared.
Results: The odds of victimization by physical assault and by theft were significantly higher among whites compared to African Americans. Race group differences in the magnitude of several inmate level effects (e.g., age, sex, education, family status, officer "legitimacy", custody score, visitation) were also significant, yet facility effects were similar for both groups.
Conclusions: Assessing differences in the victimization experiences of African American and white inmates is important for developing effective crime prevention strategies in prison. We examined the most comprehensive models of inmate victimization (including inmate socio-demographics, activities during confinement, perceptions of officers, facility characteristics, and officer perceptions of rule enforcement) for one of the largest samples of prisons to date.
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The Ecology of Gang Territorial Boundaries
Jeffrey Brantingham et al.
Criminology, forthcoming
Abstracts:
Within any type of system, the actors in the system inevitably compete over resources. With competition comes the possibility of conflict. To minimize such effects, actors often will partition the system into geographic territories. It is against the larger ecological backdrop of competition and conflict that we examine territory formation among urban street gangs. Although previous studies have examined the social and built environment where gangs form, and how the presence of a gang influences local levels of violence, we know little about how competitive interactions are tied to the formation and maintenance of gang territories. We use formal spatial Lotka-Volterra competition models to derive hypotheses about competition-driven territory formation. By using data on 563 between-gang shootings, involving 13 rival street gangs in the Hollenbeck Policing Division of Los Angeles, we show that violence strongly clusters along the boundaries between gangs in a way that is quantitatively predicted by the theory. The results suggest that even weak competitive interactions between gangs are sufficient to drive gang territory formation without recourse to other processes or assumptions.
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Homicide in the Brazilian Favela: Does Opportunity Make the Killer?
Elenice De Souza & Joel Miller
British Journal of Criminology, July 2012, Pages 786-807
Abstract:
High rates of homicide in Brazil are heavily concentrated in poor urban shanty towns or ‘favelas'. This paper looks beyond conventional social and economic explanations of homicides, and examines the relationship between situational factors and homicide incidents within a case-study favela in the city of Belo Horizonte. Initial exploratory research identified potential mechanisms linking local situational characteristics with homicide. A matched case-control study then tested hypotheses based on these mechanisms. When the characteristics of 100 addresses of homicide incidents were compared with those of 100 nearby non-homicide addresses, they showed statistical associations with drug areas, bars, alleys, windows onto the street and vehicular traffic, lending general empirical support to theorized situational mechanisms.
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The Effect of Education Policy on Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective
Costas Meghir, Mårten Palme & Marieke Schnabel
NBER Working Paper, June 2012
Abstract:
The intergenerational transmission of human capital and the extent to which policy interventions can affect it is an issue of importance. Policies are often evaluated on either short term outcomes or just in terms of their effect on individuals directly targeted. If such policies shift outcomes across generations their benefits may be much larger than originally thought. We provide evidence on the intergenerational impact of policy by showing that educational reform in Sweden reduced crime rates of the targeted generation and their children by comparable amounts. We attribute these outcomes to improved family resources and to better parenting.
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Gender differences in the effects of prison on recidivism
Daniel Mears, Joshua Cochran & William Bales
Journal of Criminal Justice, forthcoming
Purpose: This study examines gender differences in the effectiveness of prison in reducing recidivism.
Methods: Using data on released male and female prisoners, we apply a propensity score matching methodology to compare the effects of prison on recidivism versus three counterfactual conditions-jail, intensive probation, and probation.
Results: The analyses indicated that a prison term, as compared to placement on intensive probation or traditional probation, is associated with a greater likelihood of property and drug recidivism. There was little evidence that recidivism was greater when compared to jail, that prison increased the likelihood of violent or other recidivism, or that the criminogenic effect of prison is appreciably greater for females or males.
Conclusions: The findings do not support arguments that prison is an effective alternative to non-incarcerative punishments or that it exerts a differential effect on females or males. Further research is needed on what features of the prison experience contribute to the observed effects.
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Public Confidence in the Police: A Time-Series Analysis
Katy Sindall, Patrick Sturgis & Will Jennings
British Journal of Criminology, July 2012, Pages 744-764
Abstract:
Empirical analyses of the causes of public confidence in policing have been based almost entirely on cross-sectional survey data, with a consequent focus on between-group differences in levels of confidence at a single point in time. Our aim here is to introduce a time dimension to this area of investigation. Employing repeated cross-sectional survey data from the British Crime Survey, we apply time-series regression methods to show how confidence in policing changes over time for the aggregate population. Counter to cross-sectional findings, time-series analyses reveal that confidence in the police is not related to aggregate worry about crime and perceptions of social cohesion, nor informal social control, but only to perceptions of crime and the property crime rate.
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Taking a Seat at the Table: Sexual Assault Survivors' Views of Sex Offender Registries
Sarah Craun & Catherine Simmons
Victims & Offenders, Summer 2012, Pages 312-326
Abstract:
The popularity of sex offender registries within the general populace is well established in the literature; numerous researchers have examined the views of the public, mental health professionals, policy makers, sex offenders, and offenders' family members. However, the voices of survivors have not been equitably heard. To remedy this gap in professional knowledge, an online survey was conducted with nearly 600 sexual violence survivors to determine (1) their opinions on various components of sex offender registration and (2) if registries impacted their decisions to report to law enforcement. Findings indicate the survivors were hesitant to support the ability of registries to deter future sexual perpetration. While survivors strongly believed that registries create a false sense of security, they also felt all offenders, regardless of their relationship to the victim, should be required to register. Statistical analyses illustrate that very few survivors indicated that the registry had any impact on their decisions to report to law enforcement.
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The Public Safety Impact of Community Notification Laws: Rearrest of Convicted Sex Offenders
Naomi Freeman
Crime & Delinquency, July 2012, Pages 539-564
Abstract:
Sex offender management is one of the highest-profile issues in public safety today. Although states have enacted community notification laws as a means to protect communities from sexual offending, limited research has been conducted to examine the impact of these laws on public safety. As such, this study used a quasi-experimental design to examine the relationship, if any, between community notification legislation and sex offender rearrest. Sex offenders who were subject to community notification (n = 10,592, 61.7%) were compared to sex offenders who were not subject to community notification requirements (n = 6,573, 38.3%). Results indicate that sex offenders subject to community notification were rearrested twice as quickly (for a sexual offense) and 47% more quickly (for a nonsexual offense) than those not subject to community notification. The findings yield implications for sex offender interventions and public policies and suggest that notification may not be an effective strategy for significantly reducing sexual offenses.
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Joshua Cochran
Journal of Criminal Justice, forthcoming
Purpose: Prior theory and research suggest that inmate visitation can reduce misconduct in prison. However, prior studies have not accounted for the longitudinal and heterogeneous nature of these experiences. This paper addresses this research gap by examining variation in visitation experiences and the relationship between patterns of visitation and misconduct.
Methods: Using a cohort of offenders incarcerated in Florida between 2000 and 2002, group-based trajectory model analyses were used to identify groups of inmates based on their visitation and misconduct patterns. Dual trajectory analysis was used to then assess the extent to which the development of visitation and misconduct patterns are interrelated.
Results: Visitation, and more consistent visitation in particular, is associated with less prison misconduct.
Conclusions: Visitation may reduce inmate misconduct. Implications for future research, theory, and policy are discussed.
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Transcardiac Conducted Electrical Weapon (TASER) Probe Deployments: Incidence and Outcomes
William Bozeman, Eric Teacher & James Winslow
Journal of Emergency Medicine, forthcoming
Background: TASER (TASER International, Scottsdale, AZ) conducted electrical weapons (CEWs) are commonly used by law enforcement officers. Although animal studies have suggested that transcardiac CEW discharges may produce direct cardiac effects, this has not been demonstrated in human studies.
Objectives: This study sought to determine the incidence and outcomes of transcardiac CEW probe impact locations in a large series of actual CEW deployments.
Methods: A multi-center database of consecutive CEW uses by law enforcement officers was retrospectively reviewed. Case report forms were independently reviewed by three investigators to identify cases with paired probe configurations potentially producing a transcardiac discharge vector. Descriptive analysis was performed and inter-rater reliability was assessed. Results: Among 1201 total CEW uses, 813 included probe deployments and 178 cases had paired anterior probe impacts potentially capable of producing a transcardiac discharge vector. This represents 14.8% of all CEW uses (95% confidence interval [CI] 12.9-16.9%) and 21.9% of CEW uses in probe mode (95% CI 19.1-24.9%). Inter-rater agreement was very good, with kappa = 0.82. There were no immediate deaths in any cases (97.5% CI 0.0-0.3%) to suggest a cardiac dysrhythmia, including those with transcardiac discharge vector.
Conclusion: CEW deployments with probe impact configurations capable of producing a transcardiac discharge occur in a minority of cases in field use conditions. None of these cases, transcardiac or otherwise, produced immediately fatal dysrhythmias. These data support the overall safety of CEWs and provide a benchmark estimate of the likelihood of transcardiac discharge vectors occurring in field use of CEWs.