Opening the Door
How Social Context Affects Immigration Attitudes
Adam Berinsky et al.
Journal of Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Selection bias represents a persistent challenge to understanding the effects of social context on political attitudes. We attempt to overcome this challenge by focusing on a unique sample of individuals who were assigned to a new social context for an extended period, without control over the location they were sent: missionaries for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. We interviewed a sample of 1804 young people before and after their mission service in a diverse set of locations around the world, and find strong evidence that the policy views of respondents became more tolerant toward undocumented immigrants when respondents were assigned to places where contact with immigrants was more likely. Within the U.S., missionaries who served in communities with larger Hispanic populations, and those assigned to speak a language other than English, experienced the largest increases in pro-immigrant attitudes.
The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery
Michael Clemens & Ethan Lewis
NBER Working Paper, October 2022
Abstract:
The U.S. limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to employ more immigrants significantly increase production (elasticity +0.16) with no decrease or an increase in U.S. employment (elasticity +0.10, statistically imprecise) across several pre-registered subsamples. The results imply very low substitutability of native for foreign labor in the policy-relevant occupations. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor.
Labor Market Policy as Immigration Control: The Case of Temporary Protected Status
Benjamin Helms & David Leblang
International Studies Quarterly, September 2022
Abstract:
Controlling immigration has become a central political goal in advanced democracies. Politicians across the world have experimented with a range of policies such as foreign aid in the hopes that aid will spur development in migrant origin countries and decrease the demand for emigration. We argue that internal policy tools are more effective, in particular, the use of policies that allow temporary migrants short-term access to host country labor markets. These policies provide migrants an opportunity to obtain higher wages, which, in turn, increases remittances back to home countries. This increase in financial flows to households decreases subsequent demand for migration into destination countries. We test this argument using data on migration to the United States and find that an increase in remittances from the United States decreases subsequent demand for entry in that country.
Walling Off Crime: An Analysis of the Local Deterrent Effects of Increased Border Control
Lawrence LaPlue & William McFerrin
New Mexico State University Working Paper, July 2022
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the deterrent effects of both border patrol agents and increased U.S.-Mexico fencing on reported crime rates in U.S. cities located along the border, between 1992 and 2017. We find that, for cities along the U.S.-Mexico border, increases in the number of border patrol agents, within patrol sectors, are associated with significant declines in property crime rates and that increased border fencing is associated with significant declines in both property and violent crime rates. Further investigation into the underlying mechanism provides evidence that border control measures are associated with significant reductions in the apprehension of migrants in the border region with prior convictions for other, non-migration-related crimes. The avoided crime indicated by the baseline estimates represents an economic benefit, ranging, on average, from $2,300 for an additional border agent to $638,200 for an additional mile of in-city fencing.
Pains, guns and moves: The effect of the U.S. opioid epidemic on Mexican migration
Gianmarco Daniele, Marco Le Moglie & Federico Masera
Journal of Development Economics, forthcoming
Abstract
In this paper, we study how a positive economic shock to an illicit industry might foster migration. In 2010, a series of reforms to the U.S. health care system resulted in a shift in demand from legal opiates to heroin. This demand shock had considerable effects on Mexico, the main supplier of heroin consumed in the United States. We exploit variation in potential opium production at the municipal level in a difference-in-differences (DID) framework, which compares Mexican municipalities with different amounts of opium-suitable land before and after 2010. We find that people fled out of municipalities more suitable for opium production, many to areas close to the U.S. border and into the United States. This is due to the increase in violence and conflicts, as municipalities more suitable for opium became highly valuable to drug cartels. Overall, almost 95,000 people migrate within Mexico and 22,000 emigrate to the United States.
More immigrants, less death: An analysis of immigration effects on county-level drug overdose deaths, 2000-2015
Ben Feldmeyer et al.
Criminology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Public and political discourse has routinely suggested that immigration is linked to higher community levels of violence and drug problems. In contrast to these claims, research has consistently shown that immigration is not associated with greater violence at the macro level. However, few studies have examined the links between immigration flows and community drug problems. The current study seeks to address this gap in research by providing a county-level longitudinal analysis of immigration and drug overdose deaths both overall and by substance type for the 2000 to 2015 period and provides an analysis of homicide for comparison with prior immigration-crime research. In addition, this analysis compares immigration-overdose relationships across immigrant destination types. The current project relies on overdose and homicide data drawn from the Centers for Disease Control's Restricted Access Multiple Cause of Death Mortality files combined with data on county social, economic, health, and legal contexts drawn from multiple macro-level data sources. Findings reveal that immigration is not associated with higher levels of overdose or homicide deaths, and when effects are significant, immigration is linked to lower levels of overdose mortality across multiple substances and destination types.
Who Should Be Provided with Pathways toward Citizenship? White and Black Attitudes toward Undocumented Immigrants
Alicia Sheares
Sociology of Race and Ethnicity, forthcoming
Abstract:
Existing studies on attitudes towards immigrants center White public opinion and do not account for the diversity within the immigrant population. I seek to fill these gaps by testing how an undocumented immigrant's country-of-origin shapes immigrant attitudes among White and Black Americans. Through an experimental survey to 180 Black and 694 White Amazon Mechanical Turk users, I find that White respondents had significantly negative reactions to Nigerian undocumented immigrants relative to Germans, South Koreans, and Mexicans. Yet, this negative sentiment dissipated once the model controlled for cultural similarity. The results demonstrate that cultural attitudes mediate White attitudes towards immigrants, citizenship, and belonging. This study adds to the literature on White and Black attitudes towards immigrants and highlights the enduring role of racialization in influencing both legal and ascriptive notions of citizenship.
Immigration Disruptions and the Wages of Unskilled Labor in the 1920's
Jeff Biddle & Elior Cohen
Federal Reserve Working Paper, August 2022
Abstract:
An era of mass immigration into the United States ended with the onset of World War I in Europe, followed by the passage of restrictive immigration laws in 1921 and 1924. We analyze various sources of wage data collected in the 1910-1929 period to explore the impact of this significant disruption of the flow of immigration on the wages of unskilled labor. Our approach to identification entails examining differences in wages across local labor markets and industries differentially exposed to the disruptions in immigration due to different ethnic compositions of their immigrant populations in the pre-war era. We find evidence strongly suggesting that during the 1920s, industries and regions more affected by the disruptions in immigration experienced larger reductions in flows of immigrants that resulted in increased wages of unskilled labor.
Omnibus or Ominous immigration laws? Immigration policy and mental health of the Hispanic population
Tianyuan Luo & Genti Kostandini
Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study examines the impact of Omnibus Immigration Laws on the mental health of the Hispanic populations in the U.S. We use a Difference-in-Differences framework and data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the 2000-2016 period that contains information on more than 400 thousand Hispanics residing in the U.S. We find that the most stringent provision, namely, "show me your papers" laws, adversely affects the mental health of Hispanics and contributes to an increase of 12%-16% in the number of unhealthy mental days and an increase of 13%-18% in the probability of having frequent mental distress in the states with "show me your papers" laws. OIL provisions that enforced the use of E-Verify or limited the use of public benefits to unauthorized immigrants did not have any effect on mental health. The study also examines (1) police stops, (2) physical health, insurance, and employment status, (3) co-ethnic density, and (4) immigration enforcement awareness as potential mechanisms that could lead to a deterioration in the mental health of Hispanics. The evidence indicates their vulnerability to strict immigration enforcement. The social and public health cost should be carefully evaluated when formulating and implementing immigration policies.
Race/ethnicity, immigrant generation, and physiological dysregulation among U.S. adults entering midlife
Fatima Touma & Robert Hummer
Social Science & Medicine, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study aimed to better understand racial/ethnic and immigrant generation disparities in physiological dysregulation in the early portion of the adult life course. Using biomarker-measured allostatic load, we focused on the health of child/adolescent immigrant, second-, and third-plus-generation Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White Americans in their late 30s and early 40s. We drew on restricted-access data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), Waves I and V. The results indicate lower levels of physiological dysregulation for most racial/ethnic groups of child/adolescent immigrants relative to both third-plus-generation Whites and third-plus-generation same race/ethnic peers. Socioeconomic, social, and behavioral control variables measured in different parts of the life course had little impact on these patterns. Thus, evidence of an immigrant health advantage is found for this cohort using allostatic load as a measure of physiological dysregulation, even though immigrants in Add Health arrived at the United States during childhood and adolescence. Implications of these findings in the context of immigrant health advantages and trajectories are discussed.
Crime and the Mariel Boatlift
Alexander Billy & Michael Packard
International Review of Law and Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We describe crime attributable to the Mariel Boatlift, the 1980 Cuban refugee crisis that increased Miami's population by nearly 10%. Using synthetic control methods to match Miami with cities that exhibit similar pre-intervention crime patterns, we find the phenomenon comparatively increased property crime and murder rates; we also document weaker but suggestive relative growth in violent crime. Compositional features of the newcomers partially drive results; the disproportionately young, male Cubans' characteristics highly correlate with illicit activity. However, the degree of prior incarceration and psychiatric institutionalization likely explains the majority of the observed effects. Given the group's unique composition and the absence of rigorous screening, it likely constitutes the worst observed migration event in terms of public safety in US history. The Marielitos bear little resemblance to other groups of newcomers. Hence, it would be imprudent to use crime connected with the 1980 event we study to inform immigration policy.