Offenders
Falling racial inequality and rising educational inequality in US prison admissions for drug, violent, and property crimes
Christopher Muller & Alexander Roehrkasse
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 28 January 2025
Abstract:
Using administrative and survey data, we show that there has been a sea change in the contours of American imprisonment. At the end of the twentieth century, inequality in the prison admission rates of Black and White Americans was comparable to inequality in the prison admission rates of people with and without a college education. However, educational inequality is now much greater than racial inequality in prison admissions for all major crime types. Violent offenses have replaced drug offenses as the primary driver of Black prison admissions and Black-White inequality in the prison admission rate. The prison admission rate of Black Americans has fallen, but the prison admission rate of White Americans with no college education has dramatically increased for all offense categories. These findings, which are robust to adjustments for changing selection into college attendance, contribute to a growing body of evidence documenting narrowing racial inequality and widening educational inequality in Americans’ life chances.
Why are state prison populations shrinking? A research note
Scott Duxbury
Criminology, forthcoming
Abstract:
After four decades of explosive growth, the US imprisonment rate began to inch downward in 2008. Despite fostering extensive public and policy debate, we know surprisingly little about why state imprisonment rates are declining. Although prior studies have examined correlates of decreases in imprisonment, it is currently unknown how much of the observed decrease in state prison populations can be attributed to decreases in the crime rate since its peak in the 1990s, as opposed to successful criminal sentencing reforms. This study uses new data on state sentencing reform policies in a decomposition of annual changes in state imprisonment rates between 1970 and 2019. Decreases in the property crime rate can account for 43%-60% of the observed decrease in the annual change in state imprisonment rates, whereas sentencing reforms account for another 12%-16%. Sentencing reforms have had their largest effects in the Midwest and South but have not contributed to decreases in the annual change in state imprisonment rates in the Northeast or West. These results uncover “varieties of decarceration” across the states and suggest that recent reform efforts -- although effective -- can only account for a portion of the observed decreases in state prison populations.
The Growth of Illicit Drug Use and Its Effects on Murder Rates
Sujeong Park
Health Economics, March 2025, Pages 456-471
Abstract:
After years of reductions in the rate of murder in the United States, the national murder rate has increased since 2015. The causes of this trend are generally unknown, though there is some evidence related to narcotic drugs. Arrests related to heroin and cocaine had been stable between 2010 and 2014 before a sudden increase in 2015. Likewise, the number of murders related to narcotic drugs has increased since 2013, with a jump in 2015. Increased rates of these crimes parallel recent dramatic growth in overdoses involving heroin. However, the causal relationship between the recent opioid crisis and the rise in murder rates is missing from the literature. I used OxyContin reformulation as an exogenous shock to illicit markets. OxyContin reformulation led some people who misused OxyContin to switch to illicit opioids. Previous work has shown that areas with higher rates of OxyContin misuse experienced faster growth in heroin overdoses post-reformulation. I tested whether this growth in illicit drug use caused an increase in crime. After reformulation, I find significantly greater relative increases in murder rates in states with high pre-reformulation rates of OxyContin misuse. The results support a causal link between the opioid epidemic and crime.
What Fueled the Illicit Opioid Epidemic? New Evidence from a Takeover of White Powder Heroin Markets
Travis Donahoe & Adam Soliman
University of Pittsburgh Working Paper, January 2025
Abstract:
In recent years, the majority of drug overdose deaths in the U.S. have involved illicitly-produced opioids (primarily heroin and fentanyl), overtaking prescription opioids as the main driver of the opioid epidemic. In this paper, we document a previously unexplored shift in heroin markets that played a critical role in driving this transition: the takeover of white powder heroin production by Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTOs) from Colombian DTOs beginning in 2012, which resulted in heroin that was adulterated with fentanyl and more variable in potency. Using a difference-in-differences approach that exploits the fact that white powder heroin markets were exposed to these heroin quality shocks while black tar heroin markets were not, we find that they increased heroin and fentanyl death rates by roughly 230% and 890%, respectively, from 2012 to 2019. Previously studied legal market interventions cannot explain these effects, and we shed light on key aspects of the evolving epidemic that were thus far unexplained. We conclude that shocks to heroin quality are a major determinant of the transition to the illicit opioid waves of the epidemic.
Did Recreational Marijuana Legalization Increase Crime in the Long Run?
Sunyoung Lee
International Review of Law and Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study comprehensively examines the long-term effects of recreational marijuana legalization on crime rates by employing a difference-in-differences with multiple time periods methodology. The findings indicate that a legally regulated marijuana market does not necessarily result in a reduction in crime. Instead, the findings show sustained increases in property crime rates, particularly in larceny and burglary. Robustness checks, including synthetic control methods and sensitivity analyses, confirm the reliability of these results. The study emphasizes the need for continued research to help policymakers better understand the complex implications of cannabis policy and develop more nuanced, evidence-based approaches.
Drug Decriminalization and Fatal Traffic Crashes: Evidence From BM110 in Oregon
Christian Gunadi & Yuyan Shi
Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Oregon Ballot Measure 110 (BM 110) reduced the penalties for non-commercial possession of a controlled substance, downgrading them from a felony or misdemeanor to a new Class E violation, punishable by a maximum $100 fine. In this paper, we investigate whether BM 110 was associated with changes in drug-related fatal traffic crashes in Oregon after its implementation in February 2021. To do so, we used Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data from 2018 to 2021 to calculate population-adjusted state-level drug-related fatal traffic crashes. We also employed a modified synthetic control method to create a “synthetic” Oregon, designed to closely resemble the state's pre-policy sociodemographic characteristics and outcome trends while correcting for time-invariant pre-policy differences. The findings show that BM 110 was not associated with changes in drug-related fatal traffic crashes per 100,000 population (0.114, 95% CI: −0.106, 0.334). These results suggest that the implementation of BM 110 did not change drug-related fatal traffic crashes in Oregon in the early period following its adoption.
Decriminalization and police productivity: The 2018 Farm Bill’s effect on cannabis case processing time
Katherine Wilds & John Worrall
Police Practice and Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Proponents of cannabis policy reform argue that decriminalization enhances productivity and resource allocation for police departments. This study explores the effect of the 2018 Farm Bill, a form of cannabis decriminalization, on one measure of police productivity: cannabis case processing times. Using monthly data from the Dallas Police Department’s Record Management System, spanning the years 2014–2021, we estimated single group interrupted time series models designed to gauge whether the Farm Bill’s enactment altered cannabis case processing times in both the short run and over time. Results indicate that processing times for cannabis cases increased following the Farm Bill’s enactment, which is directly counter to the argument that decriminalization improves police productivity. This study has implications for law enforcement practices, filling a gap in the research on how decriminalization can affect police practices.
“Still Doin’ Time”: An Analysis of the Conditional Effects of Legislative Term Limits on State Incarceration Rates
Jason Byers & Laine Shay
Journal of Policy History, January 2025, Pages 71-89
Abstract:
A vast body of work investigates the consequences of legislative term limits for public policy. However, considerably less research has delved into their effects in noneconomic policy domains. In this article, we develop the argument that implemented term limits increase the effect that a state government’s ideology has on the state’s incarceration rate. When analyzing incarceration rates among all states between 1979 and 2017, we find evidence to support our theoretical expectation. Specifically, for states with term limits, we find that an increase in state government conservatism is associated with a higher incarceration rate. Conversely, for non-term-limited states, we find that the policy preferences of the state government have little influence on the incarceration rate. These findings deepen our insight into how institutional design can affect public policy.
Poor Mental Health as Cause and/or Consequence of Restrictive Housing
John Wooldredge et al.
Criminal Justice and Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Whether poor mental health increases an incarcerated person’s exposure to disciplinary or administrative segregation, and, in turn, whether segregation contributes to poorer health have been examined separately in the empirical literature, with studies of the former limited to between-person analyses. We conducted within-person analyses of changes to both mental health and the odds of segregation to determine whether these effects are bidirectional within the same sample. Between-person analyses of mental health effects on segregation were also performed for comparison to prior studies. Admissions to all Ohio prisons within a 10-year window (N = 224,288) were examined. Within-person analyses revealed lower odds of placement in administrative segregation for individuals with declining mental health during their sentence and no significant segregation effects on subsequent mental health. Between-person analyses indicated higher odds of placement in disciplinary segregation within the first year of confinement for persons with poorer mental health at prison intake.