Not Out of the Woods
Moral Collapse and State Failure: A View From the Past
Richard Blanton et al.
Frontiers in Political Science, October 2020
Abstract:
We have found that collective action theory, as developed by Margaret Levi and others, provides a new direction for the study of growth and decline of premodern states. By following this lead, we challenge the traditional consensus that despotic rule and relations characterized most premodern states, demonstrating instead a state-building process in which fiscal economies of joint production fostered the implementation of good government such as accountable leadership and public goods. In this paper we focus attention on causes and consequences of state decline, highlighting the decline pattern found in societies where there had been good government. Our comparative investigation reveals that while regimes providing good government policies and practices were highly regarded by citizens and brought benefits to them, they were not always enduring over time and regime decline was frequently followed by serious demographic and economic consequences. While causes of decline were varied, we describe and comment on four well-documented examples in which primary causality can be traced to a principal leadership that inexplicably abandoned core principles of state-building that were foundational to these polities, while also ignoring their expected roles as effective leaders and moral exemplars.
Democratic deconsolidation in East Asia: Exploring system realignments in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan
Doh Chull Shin
Democratization, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study explores how and why the citizenries of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan engage in deconsolidating the liberal democratic system in which they live. For this exploration, the study conceptualizes democratic deconsolidation as a two-phase psychological movement and analyses it as the realignment of system affiliation. The analysis of the Asian Barometer Survey recently conducted in these countries reveals that pluralities of their citizenries are psychologically disposed to realign themselves with a hybrid or autocratic system. It also reveals that democratic learning and socioeconomic modernization, two significant influences on democratic consolidation, do little to keep East Asians from joining in the deconsolidation movement. These findings suggest that the deconsolidation of democracy not be equated with a reversal of its consolidation.
Peace Above the Glass Ceiling: The Historical Relationship between Female Political Empowerment and Civil Conflict
Sirianne Dahlum & Tore Wig
International Studies Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
We investigate whether female political empowerment is conducive to civil peace, drawing on global data on female political empowerment over a 200-year period, from the Varieties of Democracy database. We augment previous research by expanding the temporal scope, looking at a novel inventory of female political empowerment measures, attending to reverse-causality and omitted variable issues, and separating between relevant causal mechanisms. We find a strong link between female political empowerment and civil peace, which is particularly pronounced in the twentieth century. We find evidence that this relationship is driven both by women’s political participation — particularly the bottom-up political participation of women, e.g., in civil society — and the culture that conduces it. This is the strongest evidence to date that there is a robust link between female political empowerment and civil peace, stemming from both institutional and cultural mechanisms.
Affect and Autocracy: Emotions and Attitudes in Russia after Crimea
Samuel Greene & Graeme Robertson
Perspectives on Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Our understanding of modern authoritarianism lacks a satisfying explanation for the genuine popularity of autocrats. While most of the literature on authoritarianism focuses on coercion, institutional manipulation, or clientelism, many contemporary autocrats clearly enjoy enthusiastic support even in times of economic stagnation or decline. We argue that part of the solution lies in unpacking the role of emotions in building support for rulers. Drawing on a unique panel survey conducted shortly before and after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, we discover that the resulting “rally” around the authoritarian flag involves much more than simply support for the leader or a simple increase in nationalism. Rather, we witness a broad shift in respondents’ emotional orientation. Driven by the shared experience of the Crimean “moment,” this shift improves people’s evaluation of their social, political, and economic surroundings in the present, the future — and even the past. The result is a new explanation of the nonmaterial means through which autocrats may succeed in bolstering their legitimacy.
Are would-be authoritarians right? Democratic support and citizens’ left-right self-placement in former left- and right- authoritarian countries
Sjifra de Leeuw et al.
Democratization, forthcoming
Abstract:
Conventional wisdom dictates that the more citizens lean towards either end of the ideological spectrum, the lower their support for democracy. The main model pitted against this “rigidity-of-the-extremes model” is the “rigidity-of-the-right model”. This model assumes that rightist citizens are less supportive. This study proposes and empirically demonstrates the validity of an alternative model, which we call “the authoritarian legacy model”. This model predicts that whether leftist or rightist citizens are less supportive of democracy depends on countries’ experience with left- or right-authoritarianism. To evaluate its validity, we present a systematic comparative investigation of the relation between citizens’ ideological and democratic beliefs, using European and World Values Survey data from 38 European countries (N = 105,495; 1994-2008). In line with this model, our analyses demonstrate that democratic support is lowest among leftist citizens in former left-authoritarian countries and among rightist citizens in former right-authoritarian countries. We find that this relation persists even among generations that grew up after authoritarian rule. These findings suggest that traditional ideological rigidity models are unsuitable for the study of citizens’ democratic beliefs.
Modeling the Impact of a Model: The (Non)Relationship between China's Economic Rise and African Democracy
Simon Davidsson
Politics & Policy, October 2020, Pages 859-886
Abstract:
Many scholars have regarded China's emergence as an economic force as a threat to democracy in Africa, presenting China as the exporter of an authoritarian model through its rising economic influence. This article investigates how well founded the contended Chinese economic threat to Africa is by both analyzing the data at a very fundamental level and applying time‐series, cross‐sectional analysis to economic and political data. In particular, the relationship between Chinese economic interactions with African states and democracy is explored. The analysis considers different aspects of an economic interaction with China measured both as share of GDP and of country totals. I do not find a relationship between Chinese economic interaction with African states and democracy in these states. The article thus contributes much important groundwork concerning the existence of patterns in Chinese economic relations and democracy, as well as some specific links between these economic relations and political change.
Why Do States Intervene in the Elections of Others? The Role of Incumbent–Opposition Divisions
Johannes Bubeck et al.
British Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Why do states intervene in elections abroad? This article argues that outsiders intervene when the main domestic contenders for office adopt policy positions that differ from the point of view of the outside power. It refers to the split between the government's and opposition's positions as policy polarization. Polarization between domestic political forces, rather than the degree of unfriendliness of the government in office, attracts two types of interventions: process (for or against democracy) and candidate (for or against the government) interventions. The study uses a novel, original data set to track local contenders’ policy positions. It shows that the new policy polarization measurement outperforms a number of available alternatives when it comes to explaining process and candidate interventions. The authors use this measurement to explain the behavior of the United States as an intervener in elections from 1945 to 2012. The United States is more likely to support the opposition, and the democratic process abroad, if a pro-US opposition is facing an anti-US government. It is more likely to support the government, and undermine the democratic process abroad, if a pro-US government is facing an anti-US opposition. The article also presents the results for all interveners, confirming the results from the US case.
The dark side of regionalism: How regional organizations help authoritarian regimes to boost survival
Maria Debre
Democratization, forthcoming
Abstract:
The international dimension of authoritarian resilience is receiving increased attention by scholars of comparative politics and international relations alike. Research suggests that autocratic states exploit regionalism to boost domestic regime security. This article explains how membership in regional organizations can help to strengthen survival chances of autocratic incumbent elites. It argues that membership provides additional material, informational, and ideational resources to autocratic incumbents that can be used to boost domestic survival strategies vis-à-vis internal and external challengers. The article provides qualitative case-based evidence to show how autocratic incumbents in Zimbabwe, China, and Bahrain have benefited from the involvement of regional organizations during moments of political instability to strengthen legitimation, repression, co-optation, and international appeasement strategies. The article thereby provides the first encompassing explanation linking regionalism and authoritarian survival politics that is applicable across regions and different types of authoritarian regimes.
Concessions, Violence, and Indirect Rule: Evidence from the Congo Free State
Sara Lowes & Eduardo Montero
NBER Working Paper, October 2020
Abstract:
All colonial powers granted concessions to private companies to extract natural resources during the colonial era. Within Africa, these concessions were characterized by indirect rule and violence. We use the arbitrarily defined borders of rubber concessions granted in the north of the Congo Free State to examine the causal effects of this form of economic organization on development. We find that historical exposure to the concessions causes significantly worse education, wealth, and health outcomes. To examine mechanisms, we collect survey and experimental data from individuals near a former concession boundary. We find that village chiefs inside the former concessions provide fewer public goods, are less likely to be elected, and are more likely to be hereditary. However, individuals within the concessions are more trusting, more cohesive, and more supportive of sharing income. The results are relevant for the many places that were designated as concessions to private companies during the colonial era.
The fallacy of perfect regulatory controls: Lessons from database surveillance of migration in West Germany from the 1950s to the 1970s
Elisabeth Badenhoop
Regulation & Governance, forthcoming
Abstract:
Surveillance studies have long argued that electronic databases are designed to maximize state surveillance as a “superpanopticon” or “surveillant assemblage.” But how are databases being implemented in practice, and do they actually enhance control? This article addresses these questions by examining the case of the German Central Foreigners Register (Ausländerzentralregister [AZR]). Established in 1953, the AZR was one of the first databases on migrants in the western liberal world, and remains a pillar of Germany's migration control system today. By analyzing internal ministerial records from the 1950s to the 1970s – the time when this database was introduced, expanded, and automatized while still relatively free from legal or public constraints – this article examines whether, or how, databases enhance state control. I argue that the AZR did not provide the “perfect surveillance” it was intended to deliver; rather, it produced major bureaucratic and political challenges and a series of malfunctions. This case study confirms that database surveillance, such as the German AZR in the 1970s and European databases today, depends on three basic conditions: shared expectations regarding data usages, cooperation in data supply, and capacities of data storage and maintenance. Moreover, databases serve the additional symbolic function of reassuring the self‐imagination of sovereign, modern state power.
Survivorship Bias in Comparative Politics: Endogenous Sovereignty and the Resource Curse
David Waldner & Benjamin Smith
Perspectives on Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Cross-national statistical research based on “all country” data sets involves no deliberate selection and hence ignores the potential for endogenous selection bias. We show that these designs are prone to selection bias if existing units are subject to differential survival rates induced, in part, by treatment. Using rudimentary graph theory, we present survivorship bias as a form of collider bias, which is related to but distinct from selection on the dependent variable. Because collider bias is always relative to a specific causal model, we present a causal model of post-colonial sovereignty on the Arabian Peninsula, show that it implies survivorship bias in the form of false positives with respect to the political resource curse, and provide historical evidence confirming that the model correctly depicts the creation of sovereign countries on the Arabian Peninsula but not elsewhere. When we correct for endogenous selection bias, the effect of oil on autocratic survival is shown to be negligible. The study motivates the need to think more broadly about the nature of the data-generating process when making causal inferences with observational data and to construct statistical models that are sensitive to treatment heterogeneity and rooted in context-specific knowledge and qualitative inferences.