Moving the Market
Blockbuster or bust? Silver screen effect and stock returns
Sanghyun Hong & Xiaopeng Wei
Review of Finance, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study introduces a novel mood metric -- blockbuster movie releases -- and investigates its correlation with stock market dynamics. We document a significant positive correlation between blockbuster movie releases and US stock market returns in the subsequent week. This pattern remains robust across various robustness tests both in-sample and out-of-sample. The changes in weekly box office revenue and increased Internet searches for movie-related terms further affirm this relationship. Moreover, releases of blockbuster movies predict lower expected market volatility and risk aversion. The positive predictive effect on market returns is also evident in international markets.
Does Floor Trading Matter?
Jonathan Brogaard, Matthew Ringgenberg & Dominik Rösch
Journal of Finance, February 2025, Pages 375-414
Abstract:
Although algorithmic trading now dominates financial markets, some exchanges continue to use human floor traders. On March 23, 2020 the NYSE suspended floor trading because of COVID-19. Using a difference-in-differences analysis around the closure of the floor, we find that floor traders are important contributors to market quality. The suspension of floor trading leads to higher spreads and larger pricing errors for treated stocks relative to control stocks. To explore the mechanism, we exploit two partial floor reopenings that have different characteristics. Our finding suggests that in-person human interaction facilitates the transfer of valuable information that algorithms lack.
Do Institutional Investors Stabilize Equity Markets in Crisis Periods? Evidence from COVID-19
Simon Glossner et al.
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
During the COVID-19 stock market crash, U.S. stocks with higher institutional ownership (IO) performed worse than those with lower IO. By studying firm-level changes, we identify two mechanisms behind this effect: a sudden downscaling of institutional capital in the equity market and a collective attempt by institutions to reposition their equity portfolios toward more COVID-resilient stocks. The stock price effects of their “portfolio downscaling” trades quickly reversed in the market’s recovery phase, whereas those of their “portfolio repositioning” trades lingered. The institutional rush for firm resilience also caused price pressures, with retail investors providing liquidity to stocks sold by institutional investors, both during the crisis and afterward. Overall, our results indicate that when a tail risk is realized, institutional investors amplify price crashes.
Strategic Wealth Accumulation Under Transformative AI Expectations
Caleb Maresca
NYU Working Paper, February 2025
Abstract:
This paper analyzes how expectations of Transformative AI (TAI) affect current economic behavior by introducing a novel mechanism where automation redirects labor income from workers to those controlling AI systems, with the share of automated labor controlled by each household depending on their wealth at the time of invention. Using a modified neoclassical growth model calibrated to contemporary AI timeline forecasts, I find that even moderate assumptions about wealth-based allocation of AI labor generate substantial increases in pre-TAI interest rates. Under baseline scenarios with proportional wealth-based allocation, one-year interest rates rise to 10-16% compared to approximately 3% without strategic competition. The model reveals a notable divergence between interest rates and capital rental rates, as households accept lower productive returns in exchange for the strategic value of wealth accumulation. These findings suggest that evolving beliefs about TAI could create significant upward pressure on interest rates well before any technological breakthrough occurs, with important implications for monetary policy and financial stability.
Venture Capital Start-up Selection
Young Soo Jang & Steven Kaplan
NBER Working Paper, February 2025
Abstract:
We study venture capital (VC) selection using the deal flow and investment decisions for more than 8,000 sourced deals from one early-stage VC in detail. The (unconditional) likelihood that a sourced start-up raises at least $1 million in VC funding from some VC firm is roughly 30%. The deals the VC scored and invested in perform better than the deals the VC scored and did not invest which perform better than the deals the VC did not score, suggesting that the VC has selection ability. At the same time, the selection is noisy as only 32% (13%) of the invested firms have raised more than $10 ($25) million in VC funding. The VC evaluated the deals it scored on team, market, product and exit characteristics. Team is most successful at explaining VC funding of at least $1 million, but does not explain larger financings or success. Market and product have more explanatory power for VC funding of more than $10, $25 and $50 million as well as longer term outcomes. Consistent with other recent work, this is consistent with VCs overweighting team in their initial investment decision.
Early Evidence of “Finance for Normal People” in the First Era of Globalization
Maxime Merli & Antoine Parent
Kyklos, forthcoming
Abstract:
In this paper, we unearth a forgotten study of Pierre Des Essars, the director of research at the Banque de France in the late 19th century, enriched with comments from contemporary financial analysts. Des Essars provides the first and only existing example of the actual composition of French individual portfolios during the Belle Époque. By revisiting what is generally taught, our analyses show that many of the intuitions of “finance for normal people” were already present in the financial analysts' writings during the Belle Époque. Specifically, we show in an unprecedented way that these writings prefigure behavioral portfolio theory word for word a century before its emergence. In addition, our findings highlight that this popular science of investment was born from observations of individual portfolios and the objective of providing financial education for the masses. Finally, we reveal strong invariants in the construction of behavioral finance versus standard finance a century apart.
Q: Risk, rents, or growth?
Alexandre Corhay, Howard Kung & Lukas Schmid
Journal of Financial Economics, March 2025
Abstract:
We document that the increasing polarization in Tobin’s Q within industries is closely connected to the growing divergence in rents and the emergence of superstar firms over the past four decades, while discount rates and growth rates did not exhibit the same increasing dispersion. We explain these industry polarization trends in an estimated general equilibrium model where each industry consists of large superstar oligopolists and small monopolistically competitive firms with endogenous transitions between them. Small firms make investments in speculative innovation to increase their probability of becoming superstars. Our model estimation finds that rising entry barriers in both small and superstar firms contribute to rising polarization in markups, but the rising barriers to creating small firms and increasing tastes for goods produced by superstars account for most of the divergence in Q. Stunting the creation of small firms generates greater incentives for speculative innovation, magnifying the impact of market power dispersion on industry polarization in Q.
Rest and financial judgments: The impact of holidays on analyst accuracy
Sima Jannati
Journal of Banking & Finance, April 2025
Abstract:
I examine whether holidays affect the forecast accuracy of equity analysts. I find that earnings forecasts issued after holidays are, on average, more accurate than those issued before. Economically, this effect is equivalent to the impact of 73 months of experience on analyst accuracy. Using heuristic behavior as a proxy for improved rest, I find that analysts’ use of heuristics declines after holidays. I examine and rule out greater information availability, increased attention, and changes in sentiment as alternative mechanisms. Overall, the results suggest that short breaks from work meaningfully improve the quality of analysts’ performance.