Money store
Did Affordable Housing Legislation Contribute to the Subprime Securities Boom?
Andra Ghent, Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael Owyang
Real Estate Economics, Winter 2015, Pages 820�C854
Abstract:
We use a regression discontinuity approach and present new institutional evidence to investigate whether affordable housing policies influenced the market for securitized subprime mortgages. We use merged loan-level data on nonprime mortgages with individual- and neighborhood-level data for California and Florida. We find no evidence that lenders increased subprime originations or altered loan pricing around the discrete eligibility cutoffs for the Government-Sponsored Enterprises' (GSEs) affordable housing goals or the Community Reinvestment Act. Although we find evidence that the GSEs bought significant quantities of subprime securities, our results indicate that these purchases were not directly related to affordable housing mandates.
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FOMC Responses to Calls for Transparency
Miguel Acosta
Federal Reserve Working Paper, July 2015
Abstract:
I apply latent semantic analysis to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) transcripts and minutes from 1976 to 2008 in order to analyze the Fed's responses to calls for transparency. Using a newly constructed measure of the transparency of deliberations, I study two events that define markedly different periods of transparency over this 32-year period. First, the 1978 Humphrey-Hawkins Act increased the degree to which the FOMC used meeting minutes to convey the content of its meetings. Historical evidence suggests that this increased transparency reflected a response to the Act's requirement that the Fed provide greater detail in reporting with respect to its goals and objectives. Second, the 1993 decision to publish nearly verbatim transcripts also increased transparency. However, the cost was an increasing degree of conformity at each meeting, as evidenced by lower variance in content disagreement at the member level.
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One Central Bank to Rule Them All
Francesca Brusa, Pavel Savor & Mungo Ivor Wilson
University of Oxford Working Paper, September 2015
Abstract:
Both U.S. and international stock markets enjoy high returns and Sharpe ratios on days of scheduled FOMC meetings, consistent with global investors demanding a premium to bear risks associated with Federal Reserve decisions. There is no comparable result for other major central banks, whose announcements do not command positive risk premia either globally or, more surprisingly, domestically. Other macroeconomic announcements have impact on local stock markets and, to some extent, even on the U.S. market. These findings suggest that the Federal Reserve exerts a unique impact on global equity prices that does not simply stem from the size and importance of the U.S. economy.
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Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide
Atif Mian, Amir Sufi & Emil Verner
NBER Working Paper, September 2015
Abstract:
A rise in the household debt to GDP ratio predicts lower output growth and higher unemployment over the medium-run, contrary to standard macroeconomic models. GDP forecasts by the IMF and OECD underestimate the importance of a rise in household debt to GDP, giving the change in household debt to GDP ratio of a country the ability to predict growth forecasting errors. We use lower credit spreads and increases in risky debt issuance as instruments for the rise in household debt to GDP to argue that our results are supportive of recent models where debt growth is driven by changes in credit supply, borrowing constraints, or risk premia. We also show that a rise in household debt to GDP is associated contemporaneously with a rising consumption share of output, a worsening of the current account balance, and a rise in the share of consumption goods within imports. This is followed by strong external adjustment when the economy slows as the current account reverses and net exports increase due to a sharp fall in imports. Finally, an increase in global household debt to GDP also predicts lower global output growth. The pre-2000 predicted relationship between global household debt changes and subsequent global growth matches closely the actual decline in global growth after 2007 given the large increase in household debt during the early to mid-2000s.
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Knowing When to Spend: Unintended Financial Consequences of Earmarking to Encourage Savings
Abigail Sussman & Rourke O'Brien
Journal of Marketing Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Maintaining savings is an important financial goal. Yet, there are times when savings should be spent; for example, when people face unavoidable costs and spending savings means avoiding high-interest rate debt. Existing behavioral research has focused on consumer decisions between savings and discretionary spending and has developed interventions to promote savings in these contexts. However, when spending is non-discretionary, these interventions risk exacerbating a pattern found in economic research that people borrow high-interest rate debt while maintaining savings earning low levels of interest. We examine how mental accounting interacts with considerations of personal responsibility and guilt to contribute to this pattern. Specifically, we explore whether people will spend savings in times when they need money most: emergencies. Across six studies, we find that people's tendency to preserve savings in favor of borrowing from a high interest rate credit option varies as a function of the savings' intended use. Paradoxically, people are most likely to turn to high interest rate credit under the belief that doing so is the responsible option.
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Learning from Inflation Experiences
Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel
Quarterly Journal of Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
How do individuals form expectations about future inflation? We propose that individuals overweight inflation experienced during their lifetimes. This approach modifies existing adaptive learning models to allow for age-dependent updating of expectations in response to inflation surprises. Young individuals update their expectations more strongly than older individuals since recent experiences account for a greater share of their accumulated lifetime history. We find support for these predictions using 57 years of microdata on inflation expectations from the Reuters/Michigan Survey of Consumers. Differences in experiences strongly predict differences in expectations, including the substantial disagreement between young and old individuals in periods of highly volatile inflation, such as the 1970s. It also explains household borrowing and lending behavior, including the choice of mortgages.
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Vadim Elenev, Tim Landvoigt & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
NBER Working Paper, October 2015
Abstract:
We develop a new model of the mortgage market where both borrowers and lenders can default. Risk tolerant savers act as intermediaries between risk averse depositors and impatient borrowers. The government plays a crucial role by providing both mortgage guarantees and deposit insurance. Underpriced government mortgage guarantees lead to more and riskier mortgage originations as well as to high financial sector leverage. Mortgage crises occasionally turn into financial crises and government bailouts due to the fragility of the intermediaries' balance sheets. Increasing the price of the mortgage guarantee "crowds in" the private sector, reduces financial fragility, leads to fewer but safer mortgages, lowers house prices, and raises mortgage and risk-free interest rates. Due to a more robust financial sector, consumption smoothing improves and aggregate welfare increases. While borrowers are nearly indifferent to a world with or without mortgage guarantees, savers are substantially better off. While aggregate welfare increases, so does wealth inequality.
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Sewin Chan, Samuel Dastrup & Ingrid Gould Ellen
Real Estate Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article examines homeowners' self-reported values in the American Housing Survey and the Health and Retirement Study from the start of the recent housing price run-ups through recent price declines. We compare ZIP-Code-level market-based estimates of housing prices to those derived from homeowners' self-reported values. We show that there are systematic differences which vary with market conditions and the amount of equity owners hold in their homes. When prices have fallen, homeowners systematically state that their homes are worth more than market estimates suggest, and homeowners with little or no equity in their homes state values above the market estimates to a greater degree. Over time, homeowners appear to adjust their assessments to be more in line with past market trends, but only slowly. Our results suggest that underwater borrowers are likely to understate their losses and either may not be aware that their mortgages are underwater or underestimate the degree to which they are.
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Can't Pay or Won't Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default
Kristopher Gerardi et al.
NBER Working Paper, October 2015
Abstract:
Previous research on mortgage default has been constrained by data limitations, including lack of data on mortgagor employment status. This paper studies mortgage default using PSID data, which includes a richer set of covariates, including employment status, equity, and other assets. In sharp contrast to prior studies, we find that unemployment and other negative financial shocks are key default predictors. Using wealth data, we find a limited scope for strategic default, as only 1/3 of underwater defaulters have enough assets to pay their mortgage. We discuss the implications of these findings for theoretical default models and for loss mitigation policies.
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The Influence of Homebuyer Education on Default and Foreclosure Risk: A Natural Experiment
Scott Brown
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
The recent housing crisis has generated debate over the benefits and risks of policies and programs promoting homeownership for low and moderate income households. One important facet of this conversation is whether prepurchase homebuyer education (HBE) is effective in reducing default or foreclosure risk. Studies to date have primarily focused on default risk and have faced challenges in accounting for borrower selection into HBE. This study analyzes the outcomes of a natural experiment in the provision of a classroom-based HBE program during the start-up phase of a down payment assistance loan program at Tennessee's state housing finance agency in 2002. A competing risks analysis of monthly payment data from 2002 to 2009 for 732 mortgages indicates that, after controlling for borrower, mortgage, and economic factors, HBE did not reduce default risk, but was associated with 42 percent lower odds of foreclosure. Among borrowers who defaulted, HBE was associated with an increased probability of curing a first default and of avoiding foreclosure post-default. Policymakers should consider the timing and intensity of HBE programs needed to influence default risk and how HBE may promote sustainable homeownership by influencing borrowers' help-seeking behavior and strategies for resolving defaults.
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The Impact of the Home Valuation Code of Conduct on Appraisal and Mortgage Outcomes
Lei Ding & Leonard Nakamura
Real Estate Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
The accuracy of appraisals came into scrutiny during the housing crisis, and a set of policies and regulations was adopted to address the conflict-of-interest issues in the appraisal practices. In response to an investigation by the New York State Attorney General's office, the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) was agreed to by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Using unique data sets that contain both approved and nonapproved mortgage applications, this study provides an empirical examination of the impact of the HVCC on appraisal and mortgage outcomes. The results suggest that the HVCC has led to a reduction in the probability of inflated valuations, although valuations remained on average inflated, and induced a significant increase in the incidence of low appraisals. The well-intentioned HVCC rule made it more difficult to obtain mortgages to purchase homes during the housing price crash, possibly exacerbating the fall in prices.
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Sumit Agarwal et al.
NBER Working Paper, September 2015
Abstract:
We examine the ability of policymakers to stimulate household borrowing and spending during the Great Recession by reducing banks' cost of funds. Using panel data on 8.5 million U.S. credit card accounts and 743 credit limit regression discontinuities, we estimate the marginal propensity to borrow (MPB) for households with different FICO credit scores. We find substantial heterogeneity, with a $1 increase in credit limits raising total unsecured borrowing after 12 months by 59 cents for consumers with the lowest FICO scores (≤ 660) while having no effect on consumers with the highest FICO scores (> 740). We use the same credit limit regression discontinuities to estimate banks' marginal propensity to lend (MPL) out of a decrease in their cost of funds. For the lowest FICO score households, higher credit limits quickly reduce marginal profits, limiting the pass-through of credit expansions to those households. We estimate that a 1 percentage point reduction in the cost of funds raises optimal credit limits by $127 for consumers with FICO scores below 660 versus $2,203 for consumers with FICO scores above 740. We conclude that banks' MPL is lowest exactly for those households with the highest MPB, limiting the effectiveness of policies that aim to stimulate the economy by reducing banks' cost of funds.
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Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch
Journal of International Money and Finance, forthcoming
Abstract:
In this paper, we investigate the relationship between market participants' perception of central bank communication and their evaluation of central banks' (i) credibility, (ii) unorthodox measures, and (iii) independence. We utilise a survey of more than 550 financial market participants from around the world who answered questions in reference to the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Federal Reserve (Fed). We find that market participants believe that the Fed communicates best, followed by the BoE, ECB, and BoJ. Similar rankings are found on the issues of credibility, satisfaction with unconventional monetary policy, and level of independence. Using ordered probit models, we show that perception of central bank communication is positively related to (i) evaluation of central bank credibility, (ii) satisfaction with unorthodox measures, and (iii) perceived level of central bank independence.