Money For Nothing
Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?
Òscar Jordà et al.
Federal Reserve Working Paper, March 2022
Abstract:
Inflation rates in the United States and other developed economies have closely tracked each other historically. Problems with global supply chains and changes in spending patterns due to the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed up inflation worldwide. However, since the first half of 2021, U.S. inflation has increasingly outpaced inflation in other developed countries. Estimates suggest that fiscal support measures designed to counteract the severity of the pandemic’s economic effect may have contributed to this divergence by raising inflation about 3 percentage points by the end of 2021.
Monetary policy and anxious presidents: The effects of monetary shocks on presidential job approval
Samer Adra
Politics & Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using high-frequency identification, I show that the Federal Reserve significantly influences its political environment. A 50-bp exogenous contractionary monetary shock is associated with a decline in the U.S. president's job approval by up to five percentage points in the subsequent 12 to 24 months. This loss exceeds the victory margin in six out of the eight latest elections. My findings also suggest that presidents who are in the second half of their terms are particularly vulnerable to monetary shocks. Such vulnerability is largely explained by the evolving attitudes toward key macroeconomic factors like unemployment and inflation over the presidential life cycle.
Fiscal Stimulus and Commercial Bank Lending Under COVID-19
Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak & Mark Spiegel
NBER Working Paper, March 2022
Abstract:
We investigate the implications of extra-normal government spending under the COVID-19 pandemic for commercial bank lending growth between 2019Q4 and 2020Q4 in a large sample of over 3000 banks from 71 countries. We control for pre-pandemic structural factors, bank characteristics and government debt. To address the likely endogeneity of government assistance under the pandemic, we instrument for extra-normal spending using disparities in pre-existing national political characteristics for identification. Our results indicate that while higher government spending was associated with higher commercial bank lending, higher public debt going into the crisis weakened the expansionary effects of higher spending on bank lending at economically and statistically significant levels. Moreover, this sensitivity is higher among weaker banks, suggesting that bank lending responses to government spending under COVID-19 reflected the perceived implications of such spending for government assistance of the banking sector going forward. Our results are robust to a variety of sensitivity analyses, including perturbations in specification, sample, and estimation methodology.
Tax Refund Uncertainty: Evidence and Welfare Implications
Sydnee Caldwell, Scott Nelson & Daniel Waldinger
University of Chicago Working Paper, March 2022
Abstract:
Transfers paid through annual tax refunds are a large but uncertain source of income for poor households. We document that low-income tax-filers have substantial subjective uncertainty about these refunds. We investigate the determinants and consequences of refund uncertainty by linking survey, tax, and credit bureau data. On average, filers’ expectations track realized refunds. More uncertain filers have larger differences between expected and realized refunds. Filers borrow in anticipation of their refunds, but more uncertain filers borrow less, consistent with precautionary behavior. A simple consumption-savings model suggests that refund uncertainty reduces the welfare benefits of the EITC by about 10 percent.
Measuring U.S. Fiscal Capacity using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Zhengyang Jiang et al.
NBER Working Paper, April 2022
Abstract:
We use discounted cash flow analysis to measure a country's fiscal capacity. Crucially, the discount rate applied to projected cash flows includes a GDP risk premium. We apply our valuation method to the CBO's projections for the U.S. federal government's deficit between 2022 and 2051 and debt in 2051. In spite of low rates, our current measure of U.S. fiscal capacity is lower than the debt/GDP ratio. Because of the backloading of projected surpluses, the duration of the surplus claim far exceeds the duration of the outstanding Treasury portfolio. This duration mismatch exposes the government to the risk of rising rates, which would trigger the need for higher tax revenue or lower spending. Reducing this risk by front-loading the surpluses also requires major fiscal adjustment.
De Facto Bank Bailouts
Phong Ngo & Diego Puente-Moncayo
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, forthcoming
Abstract:
The U.S. government uses its voting power to direct IMF loans to countries where U.S. banks are exposed to sovereign default — a de facto bailout. This effect is stronger in years when the costs of direct bailouts are higher and is also found among major European IMF members. We find that de facto bailouts reduce government incentives to default and that U.S. Congressional voting on IMF funding is consistent with a private interest view of government. Overall, we identify an alternative mechanism through which governments can backstop the losses of large multinational banks.
The Savings Glut of the Old: Population Aging, the Risk Premium, and the Murder-Suicide of the Rentier
Joseph Kopecky & Alan Taylor
NBER Working Paper, April 2022
Abstract:
Population aging has been linked to a global savings glut and a decline in safe real interest rates. Conversely, risky real returns have not fallen as much, if at all, with equity risk premia on the rise. An existing literature can explain changes in safe rates using demographics. We go further to account for divergent returns on different assets as well as the underlying surge in the wealth-income ratio and its asset composition. Empirical evidence from historical panel data shows that demographic shifts are correlated with asset returns and risk premia. We build a heterogeneous agent life-cycle model with two assets (a safe bond and equity) and with aggregate risk. Aging demographics can help to simultaneously explain three key trends: the rising wealth-income ratio, the falling risk free rate, and an increasing risk premium. The shifts exert less pressure on risky returns as high-wealth elderly reallocate away from equities: aging makes retirement saving a “crowded trade” but more so for bonds. Projecting our model to 2050, aging pushes the safe rate below zero, but the risk premium remains elevated, as post-boomer demographics push asset returns to unprecedented and persistently low levels.
The Importance of Technology in Banking during a Crisis
Nicola Pierri & Yannick Timmer
Journal of Monetary Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
What are the implications of information technology (IT) in banking for financial stability? Data on US banks’ IT equipment and the background of their executives reveals that higher pre-crisis IT adoption led to fewer non-performing loans and more lending during the global financial crisis. Empirical evidence indicates a direct role of IT adoption in strengthening bank resilience; this includes instrumental variable estimates exploiting the historical location of technical schools. Loan-level analysis shows that high-IT banks originated mortgages with better performance, indicating better borrower screening. No evidence points to offloading of low-quality loans, differences in business models, or enhanced monitoring.
Invisible Primes: Fintech Lending with Alternative Data
Marco Di Maggio, Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara & Don Carmichael
NBER Working Paper, March 2022
Abstract:
We exploit anonymized administrative data provided by a major fintech platform to investigate whether using alternative data to assess borrowers' creditworthiness results in broader credit access. Comparing actual outcomes of the fintech platform’s model to counterfactual outcomes based on a “traditional model” used for regulatory reporting purposes, we find that the latter would result in a 70% higher probability of being rejected and higher interest rates for those approved. The borrowers most positively affected are the “invisible primes” -- borrowers with low credit scores and short credit histories, but also a low propensity to default. We show that funding loans to these borrowers leads to better economic outcomes for the borrowers and higher returns for the fintech platform.
Independent Regulators and Financial Stability: Evidence from Gubernatorial Campaigns and a Progressive Era Policy Experiment
Marco Del Angel & Gary Richardson
NBER Working Paper, April 2022
Abstract:
Regulatory independence forms a foundation for modern financial systems. To illuminate the value of this ubiquitous institution, we examine a Progressive Era policy experiment in which hitherto independent regulators came under gubernatorial supervision. After this change, failure rates declined during gubernatorial election campaigns for banks under gubernatorial jurisdiction. Declines did not occur during campaigns for other officials or for nationally chartered banks. Declines in bank resolutions during campaigns reduced business bankruptcies. We corroborate these claims with new data and novel IV regressions. Our results indicate that political subservience of financial regulators links electoral and economic cycles.