Mitigation
Relationship of public health with continued shifting of party voting in the United States
Jason Wasfy et al.
Social Science & Medicine, forthcoming
Background: In the U.S. presidential election of 2016, communities with poorer public health shifted votes to the Republican party. Whether this trend has persisted beyond 2016 is unclear.
Methods: We created a county-level measure of public health (the “unhealthy” component) by performing principal component analysis on 9 health statistics. We then estimated shifting of votes by defining “net vote shift” as the percentage of Republican votes in the 2018 U.S. House of Representatives election minus the percentage of Republican votes in the same election in 2016. Finally, we performed linear regression to assess the independent, county-level association of the unhealthy component with net vote shift after adjusting for county-level demographic factors.
Results: The mean county-level net vote shift was −6.4 percentage points (SD 12.6 percentage points), consistent with a mean net vote shift toward the Democratic party. After adjustment for demographic covariates, the unhealthy score was associated with higher net vote shift (17.7 percentage points shift toward Republican per unit unhealthy, p = .0323).
Conclusions: In the 2018 congressional elections, despite an overall shift toward the Democratic Party there is evidence of ongoing shifting of community voting in unhealthy communities toward the Republican party.
Donald Trump and vaccination: The effect of political identity, conspiracist ideation and presidential tweets on vaccine hesitancy
Matthew Hornsey et al.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Donald Trump is the first U.S. President to be on the record as having anti-vaccination attitudes. Given his enormous reach and influence, it is worthwhile examining the extent to which allegiance to Trump is associated with the public's perceptions of vaccine safety and efficacy. In both Study 1 (N = 518) and Study 2 (N = 316), Trump voters were significantly more concerned about vaccines than other Americans. This tendency was reduced to non-significance after controlling for conspiracist ideation (i.e., general willingness to believe conspiracy theories) and, to a lesser degree, political conservatism. In Study 2, participants were later exposed to real Trump tweets that either focused on his anti-vaccination views, or focused on golf (the control condition). Compared to when the same respondents were sampled a week earlier, there was a significant increase in vaccine concern, but only among Trump voters who were exposed to the anti-vaccination tweets. The effects were exclusively negative: there was no evidence that anti-vaccination Trump tweets polarized liberal voters into becoming more pro-vaccination. In line with the social identity model of leadership, Study 2 indicates that some leaders do not simply represent the attitudes and opinions of the group, but can also change group members' opinions.
Determining the optimal duration of the COVID-19 suppression policy: A cost-benefit analysis
Anna Scherbina
American Enterprise Institute Working Paper, March 2019
Abstract:
We investigate the optimal duration of the COVID-19 suppression policy. We find that absent extensive suppression measures, the economic cost of the virus will total over $9 trillion, which represents 43% of annual GDP. The optimal duration of the suppression policy crucially depends on the policy’s effectiveness in reducing the rate of the virus transmission. We use three different assumptions for the suppression policy effectiveness, measured by the R0 that it can achieve (R0 indicates the number of people an infected person infects on average at the start of the outbreak). Using the assumption that the suppression policy can achieve R0 = 1, we assess that it should be kept in place between 30 and 34 weeks. If suppression can achieve a lower R0 = 0.7, the policy should be in place between 11 and 12 weeks. Finally, for the most optimistic assumption that the suppression policy can achieve an even lower R0 of 0.5, we estimate that it should last between seven and eight weeks. We further show that stopping the suppression policy before six weeks does not produce any meaningful improvements in the pandemic outcome.
Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics
Òscar Jordà, Sanjay Singh & Alan Taylor
University of California Working Paper, March 2020
Abstract:
How do major pandemics affect economic activity in the medium to longer term? Is it consistent with what economic theory prescribes? Since these are rare events, historical evidence over many centuries is required. We study rates of return on assets using a dataset stretching back to the 14th century, focusing on 12 major pandemics where more than 100,000 people died. In addition, we include major armed conflicts resulting in a similarly large death toll. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of the pandemics persist for about 40 years, with real rates of return substantially depressed. In contrast, we find that wars have no such effect, indeed the opposite. This is consistent with the destruction of capital that happens in wars, but not in pandemics. Using more sparse data, we find real wages somewhat elevated following pandemics. The findings are consistent with pandemics inducing labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings.
Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic
Miguel Faria-e-Castro
Federal Reserve Working Paper, March 2020
Abstract:
I use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study the effects of the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic in the United States. The pandemic is modeled as a large negative shock to the utility of consumption of contact-intensive services. General equilibrium forces propagate this negative shock to the non-services and financial sectors, triggering a deep recession. I use a calibrated version of the model to analyze different types of fiscal policies: (i) government purchases, (ii) income tax cuts, (iii) unemployment insurance benefits, (iv) unconditional transfers, and (v) liquidity assistance to services firms. I find that UI benefits are the most effective tool to stabilize income for borrowers, who are the hardest hit, while savers favor unconditional transfers. Liquidity assistance programs are effective if the policy objective is to stabilize employment in the affected sector.
The international epidemiological transition and the education gender gap
Mariko Klasing & Petros Milionis
Journal of Economic Growth, March 2020, Pages 37–86
Abstract:
We explore the impact of the international epidemiological transition on educational attainment of males and females over the second half of the twentieth century. Using an instrumental variables strategy that exploits pre-existing variation in mortality rates across infectious diseases and gender differences in the responsiveness to the method of disease control, we document that health improvements associated with the transition led to larger gains in life expectancy for females due to their stronger immune response to vaccination. These relative gains were associated with greater increases in the educational attainment of females compared to males and account for a large share of the reduction in the education gender gap that took place over this period.
US life expectancy stalls due to cardiovascular disease, not drug deaths
Neil Mehta, Leah Abrams & Mikko Myrskylä
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 31 March 2020, Pages 6998-7000
Abstract:
After decades of robust growth, the rise in US life expectancy stalled after 2010. Explanations for the stall have focused on rising drug-related deaths. Here we show that a stagnating decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was the main culprit, outpacing and overshadowing the effects of all other causes of death. The CVD stagnation held back the increase of US life expectancy at age 25 y by 1.14 y in women and men, between 2010 and 2017. Rising drug-related deaths had a much smaller effect: 0.1 y in women and 0.4 y in men. Comparisons with other high-income countries reveal that the US CVD stagnation is unusually strong, contributing to a stark mortality divergence between the US and peer nations. Without the aid of CVD mortality declines, future US life expectancy gains must come from other causes — a monumental task given the enormity of earlier declines in CVD death rates. Reversal of the drug overdose epidemic will be beneficial, but insufficient for achieving pre-2010 pace of life expectancy growth.
Mandated Sick Pay: Coverage, Utilization, and Welfare Effects
Johanna Catherine Maclean, Stefan Pichler & Nicolas Ziebarth
NBER Working Paper, March 2020
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the labor market effects of sick pay mandates in the United States. Using the National Compensation Survey and difference-in-differences models, we estimate their impact on coverage rates, sick leave use, labor costs, and non-mandated fringe benefits. Sick pay mandates increase coverage significantly by 13 percentage points from a baseline level of 66%. Newly covered employees take two additional sick days per year. We find little evidence that mandating sick pay crowds-out other non-mandated fringe benefits. We then develop a model of optimal sick pay provision along with a welfare analysis. Mandating sick pay likely increases welfare.
Paid Sick Leave in Washington State: Evidence on Employee Outcomes, 2016–2018
Daniel Schneider
American Journal of Public Health, April 2020, Pages 499-504
Methods: I drew on new data from 12 772 service workers collected before and after the law took effect in January 2018 in Washington State and over the same time period in comparison states that did not have paid sick leave requirements. I used difference-in-difference models to estimate the effects of the law.
Results: The law expanded workers’ access to paid sick leave by 28 percentage points (P < .001). The law reduced the share of workers who reported working while sick by 8 percentage points (P < .05). Finally, there was little evidence that the law served to reduce work–life conflict for Washington workers.
Municipal Solid Waste Treatment System Increases Ambient Airborne Bacteria and Antibiotic Resistance Genes
Linyun Li et al.
Environmental Science & Technology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Landfill and incineration are the primary disposal practices for municipal solid waste (MSW) and have been considered as the critical reservoir of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs). However, the possible transmission of ARGs from the municipal solid waste treatment system (MSWT system) to ambient air is still unclear. In this study, we collected inside and ambient air samples (PM10 and PM2.5) and potential source samples (leachate and solid waste) in the MSWT system. The results showed that the MSWT system contributed to the increased ambient airborne bacteria and associated ARGs. Forty-one antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB) harboring blaTEM-1 were isolated, and the full-length nucleotide sequences of the blaTEM-1 gene (harbored by identical bacillus) from air (downwind samples) were 100% identical with those in the leachate and solid waste, indicating that the MSWT system was the important source of disperse bacteria and associated ARGs in the ambient air. The daily intake (DI) burden level of ARGs via PM inhalation was comparable with that via ingestion of drinking water but lower than the DI level via ingestion of raw vegetables. The antibiotic-resistant opportunistic pathogen Bacillus cereus was isolated from air, with a relatively high DI level of Bacillus via inhalation (104–106 copies/day) in the MSWT system. This study highlights the key pathway of airborne ARGs to human exposure.
Deviations from normal bedtimes are associated with short-term increases in resting heart rate
Louis Faust et al.
npj Digital Medicine, March 2020
Abstract:
Despite proper sleep hygiene being critical to our health, guidelines for improving sleep habits often focus on only a single component, namely, sleep duration. Recent works, however, have brought to light the importance of another aspect of sleep: bedtime regularity, given its ties to cognitive and metabolic health outcomes. To further our understanding of this often-neglected component of sleep, the objective of this work was to investigate the association between bedtime regularity and resting heart rate (RHR): an important biomarker for cardiovascular health. Utilizing Fitbit Charge HRs to measure bedtimes, sleep and RHR, 255,736 nights of data were collected from a cohort of 557 college students. We observed that going to bed even 30 minutes later than one’s normal bedtime was associated with a significantly higher RHR throughout sleep (Coeff +0.18; 95% CI: +0.11, +0.26 bpm), persisting into the following day and converging with one’s normal RHR in the early evening. Bedtimes of at least 1 hour earlier were also associated with significantly higher RHRs throughout sleep; however, they converged with one’s normal rate by the end of the sleep session, not extending into the following day. These observations stress the importance of maintaining proper sleep habits, beyond sleep duration, as high variability in bedtimes may be detrimental to one’s cardiovascular health.
Vision Zero: Speed Limit Reduction and Traffic Injury Prevention in New York City
Kristin Mammen, Hyoung Suk Shim & Bryan Weber
Eastern Economic Journal, April 2020, Pages 282–300
Abstract:
We examine the effect on the incidence of casualties and crashes of a city-wide vehicle speed limit reduction in New York City (NYC) streets. The law change, part of Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Vision Zero Action Plan to improve traffic safety, cuts the default speed limit for streets with no speed limit signs from 30 to 25 mph beginning November 7, 2014. We use a monthly panel dataset with crash statistics for the entire population of NYC streets, from July 2012 through March 2019. Several difference-in-differences regressions show a statistically significant and meaningful decline in injuries and crashes.
Chain Restaurant Calorie Posting Laws, Obesity, and Consumer Welfare
Charles Courtemanche et al.
NBER Working Paper, March 2020
Abstract:
The 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) introduced a mandate requiring chain restaurants to post calorie counts on menus and menu boards. This paper investigates whether and why calorie posting laws work. To do so, we develop a model of calories consumed that highlights two potential channels through which mandates influence choice and outlines an empirical strategy to disentangle these alternatives. We test the predictions of our model using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to compare changes in body mass index (BMI), obesity, and consumer well-being in locations that implemented calorie-posting laws between 2008 and 2011 to those in neighboring locations without such laws. We find that calorie mandates lead to a small but statistically significant reduction in average BMI of 0.2 kg/m2 (1.5 pounds) and reductions in self-reported measures of life satisfaction. Quantile regressions provide evidence that reductions in BMI and life satisfaction are concentrated among those with healthy weight. Viewed in its totality, the pattern of results is consistent with an economic model in which calorie labels influence consumers both by providing information and by imposing a welfare-reducing moral cost on unhealthy eating.
Food as Fuel: Performance Goals Increase Consumption of High-Calorie Foods at the Expense of Good Nutrition
Yann Cornil, Pierrick Gomez & Dimitri Vasiljevic
Journal of Consumer Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
At work, at school, at the gym club or even at home, consumers often face challenging situations in which they are motivated to perform their best. This research demonstrates that activating performance goals, whether in cognitive or physical domains, leads to an increase in consumption of high-calorie foods at the expense of good nutrition. This effect derives from beliefs that the function of food is to provide energy for the body (“food as fuel”) coupled with poor nutrition literacy, leading consumers to overgeneralize the instrumental role of calories for performance. Indeed, nutrition experts choose very different foods (lower in calorie, higher in nutritional value) than lay consumers in response to performance goals. Also, performance goals no longer increase calorie intake when emphasizing the hedonic function of food (“food for pleasure”). Hence, while consumer research often interprets the overconsumption of pleasurable and unhealthy high-calorie foods as a consequence of hedonic goals and self-control failures, our research suggests that this overconsumption may also be explained by a maladaptive motivation to manage energy intake.
Sitting, squatting, and the evolutionary biology of human inactivity
David Raichlen et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 31 March 2020, Pages 7115-7121
Abstract:
Recent work suggests human physiology is not well adapted to prolonged periods of inactivity, with time spent sitting increasing cardiovascular disease and mortality risk. Health risks from sitting are generally linked with reduced levels of muscle contractions in chair-sitting postures and associated reductions in muscle metabolism. These inactivity-associated health risks are somewhat paradoxical, since evolutionary pressures tend to favor energy-minimizing strategies, including rest. Here, we examined inactivity in a hunter-gatherer population (the Hadza of Tanzania) to understand how sedentary behaviors occur in a nonindustrial economic context more typical of humans’ evolutionary history. We tested the hypothesis that nonambulatory rest in hunter-gatherers involves increased muscle activity that is different from chair-sitting sedentary postures used in industrialized populations. Using a combination of objectively measured inactivity from thigh-worn accelerometers, observational data, and electromygraphic data, we show that hunter-gatherers have high levels of total nonambulatory time (mean ± SD = 9.90 ± 2.36 h/d), similar to those found in industrialized populations. However, nonambulatory time in Hadza adults often occurs in postures like squatting, and we show that these “active rest” postures require higher levels of lower limb muscle activity than chair sitting. Based on our results, we introduce the Inactivity Mismatch Hypothesis and propose that human physiology is likely adapted to more consistently active muscles derived from both physical activity and from nonambulatory postures with higher levels of muscle contraction. Interventions built on this model may help reduce the negative health impacts of inactivity in industrialized populations.
Changes in Beverage Marketing at Stores Following the Oakland Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax
Shannon Zenk et al.
American Journal of Preventive Medicine, forthcoming
Introduction: In July 2017, Oakland, California implemented a 1 cent/ounce sugar-sweetened beverage tax. This study examined changes in store marketing practices—advertising and price promotions—for sugar-sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and unsweetened beverages following the introduction of the tax.
Methods: The study employed a quasi-experimental research design and included Oakland as the intervention site and Sacramento, California as a comparison site. Based on data collected pretax (May–June 2017), 6 months post-tax (January 2018), and 12 months post-tax (June 2018) at 249 stores across the 2 sites, exterior and interior advertising for 4 taxed sugar-sweetened beverage subtypes and 6 untaxed artificially sweetened and unsweetened beverage subtypes, as well as price promotions for 59 specific taxed products and 69 untaxed products were examined. In 2019, difference-in-differences logistic regressions estimated pre–post changes in Oakland relative to Sacramento.
Results: At 6 months post-tax, the odds of sugar-sweetened beverage price promotions fell 50% in Oakland but only 22% in Sacramento. Price promotions for regular soda in particular declined in Oakland post-tax, by 47% at 6 months and 39% at 12 months (versus no change in Sacramento). Moreover, the odds of artificially sweetened beverage price promotions fell by a similar magnitude as sugar-sweetened beverages in Oakland, 55% at 6 months and 53% at 12 months, which differed significantly from Sacramento. No significant post-tax changes were found in sugar-sweetened or artificially sweetened beverage exterior or interior advertising.