Margin of victory
"Appearances Do Matter": Congressional District Compactness and Electoral Turnout
Jeffrey Ladewig
Election Law Journal, June 2018, Pages 137-150
Abstract:
Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor famously declared in Shaw v. Reno that "appearances do matter" when it comes to the shape of congressional districts. Although there are no definitive legal requirements for districts' geographical appearances, the argument is widely posited that more compact districts are better. The reasoning often asserts, and empirical studies have shown, that compactness improves communication between representatives and constituents, increases political information flows, produces fairer results, as well as restricts excessive gerrymandering. These, in turn, can all increase political participation and improve the legitimacy of our representative institutions. Despite this conventional wisdom, there is little empirical evidence on the electoral effects of compactness. Using a dataset on the compactness of U.S. House districts - with multiple measures generated by geographic information system (GIS) analyses over two redistricting cycles, I estimate the effects of congressional district compactness on electoral turnout and argue that Sandra Day O'Connor is correct: "appearances do matter."
Battleground States and Local Coverage of American Presidential Campaigns
Kerri Milita & John Barry Ryan
Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Analyses of television news and major newspapers have led to the critique that "the media" ignore the issues in campaigns, which could explain studies that show limited effects for media coverage on knowledge. These studies overlook great variation in the quantity and quality of news coverage in local information environments. Using data collected from local newspaper websites during the 2012 American presidential election, we show the quality and quantity of local news campaign coverage differ substantially between battleground and nonbattleground states. In an effort to differentiate themselves from other news outlets, newspapers in battleground states play up the local angle (e.g., candidate visits), resulting in less attention to issues in their stories. These findings suggest the voters most important to the election outcome (i.e., those in battleground states) may have less information on candidate issue positions available within their local media market.
Changing Beliefs About Female Leader Advancement Following the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election
Miriam Yates & Tyler Okimoto
Social Psychological and Personality Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Scholars have discussed the implications of positive leadership role models, including the impact of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton's political rise for aspiring leaders of underrepresented groups. However, there are also potential ramifications when those role models fail, shaping broader beliefs about the permeability of the glass ceiling. The current research tests this idea by evaluating the perceived promotability of male and female business leaders before (n = 165) and following (n = 159) the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Results indicated that the election result negatively affected the perceived promotability of women relative to men. A conceptual replication study (N = 997) manipulating election reminders yielded a similar pattern. Notably, respondents' own beliefs about the glass ceiling and willingness to work with the targets did not change, suggesting that Clinton's failed leadership bid informed predictions about the behavior of others, but it did not shift personal attitudes toward female leaders.
The Ties That Double Bind: Social Roles and Women's Underrepresentation in Politics
Dawn Teele, Joshua Kalla & Frances Rosenbluth
American Political Science Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper theorizes three forms of bias that might limit women's representation: outright hostility, double standards, and a double bind whereby desired traits present bigger burdens for women than men. We examine these forms of bias using conjoint experiments derived from several original surveys - a population survey of American voters and two rounds of surveys of American public officials. We find no evidence of outright discrimination or of double standards. All else equal, most groups of respondents prefer female candidates, and evaluate men and women with identical profiles similarly. But on closer inspection, all is not equal. Across the board, elites and voters prefer candidates with traditional household profiles such as being married and having children, resulting in a double bind for many women. So long as social expectations about women's familial commitments cut against the demands of a full-time political career, women are likely to remain underrepresented in politics.
Two's a Crowd: Women Candidates in Concurrent Elections
Tessa Ditonto & David Andersen
Journal of Women, Politics & Policy, Summer 2018, Pages 257-284
Abstract:
Most research on evaluations of women candidates considers single elections in isolation. Using two Dynamic Process Tracing experiments, this article examines whether voters alter their evaluations of women candidates, as well as their willingness to learn about and vote for them, based on the presence of other women running simultaneously in concurrent contests. We find a consistent pattern in which female candidates are not adversely affected when they are the only woman on a voter's ballot, but they are disadvantaged when other women appear on the same party's ballot in other races. This effect is more prominent for women in lower offices: women running for the House of Representatives are more disadvantaged than women running for higher offices are.
The Dynamics of Voter Preferences in the 2016 Presidential Election
Aaron Weinschenk & Costas Panagopoulos
The Forum: A Journal of Applied Research in Contemporary Politics, April 2018, Pages 123-135
Abstract:
Using daily polling data collected during the 2016 election, we examine the impact of fundamental conditions, campaign events, media coverage, and other relevant events and announcement on preference dynamics. We observe shifts in voter preferences for president over the course of the campaign and find evidence that these dynamics can be explained by specific circumstances and conditions. Our findings reinforce the potency of fundamental conditions, like presidential approval, but they also demonstrate that political events like national nominating conventions and debates can affect preferences in meaningful and enduring ways. Importantly, our research also suggests that developments commonly perceived to have affected voter preferences in 2016, like FBI Director James Comey's memo to Congress about Hillary Clinton's e-mails in October, likely exerted a minimal impact on the election, at least once the impact of other factors are taken into account. In this respect, some of our findings conflict with conventional accounts of campaign dynamics in 2016.
When the tables are turned: The effects of the 2016 U.S. Presidential election on in-group favoritism and out-group hostility
Burak Oc, Celia Moore & Michael Bashshur
PLoS ONE, May 2018
Abstract:
The outcome of the 2016 U.S. Presidential election was a big surprise to many, as the majority of polls had predicted the opposite outcome. In this two-stage cross-sectional study, we focus on how Democrats and Republicans reacted to this electoral surprise and how these reactions might have influenced the way they allocated resources to each other in small groups. We find that, before the election, Republicans showed greater in-group favoritism than Democrats, who treated others equally, regardless of their political affiliation. We then show that Democrats experienced the election outcome as an ego shock and, in the week following the election, reported significantly higher levels of negative emotions and lower levels of self-esteem than Republicans. These reactions then predicted how individuals' decided to allocate resources to others: after the election, Republicans no longer showed in-group favoritism, while Democrats showed out-group derogation. We find these decisions when the tables were turned can be partially explained by differences in participants' state self-esteem.
Can Gerrymanders Be Detected? An Examination of Wisconsin's State Assembly
Jonathan Krasno et al.
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
In October 2017, the Supreme Court heard an appeal of a November 2016 ruling striking down Wisconsin's State Assembly districts as a Republican gerrymander that illegally dilutes the weight of Democratic votes. We take the opportunity to revisit this litigation to evaluate three proposed methods of detecting gerrymanders: the "efficiency gap," a count of Assembly districts carried by statewide candidates, and the difference between the district-level partisan median and mean. The first two measures figure either centrally or peripherally in the plaintiffs' case in Wisconsin, while the third is the approach we favor. We expand on the analysis offered at trial by evaluating how these measures fare across a variety of elections in Wisconsin and with the aid of 10,000 alternative Assembly maps drawn by computer. The alternative maps provide the appropriate baseline with which to gauge the level of vote dilution in Wisconsin and distinguish between the effect of residential geography and the Legislature's actions. The results show that Wisconsin's Assembly map is a substantial gerrymander according the median-mean comparison across all elections, while the two tests relied upon by the plaintiffs provide mixed results. We examine the measurement qualities of each test and show that the efficiency gap and districts-carried count both capture elements beyond partisan bias. We find no similar ambiguity with the median-mean comparison and conclude that the plaintiffs' claim that Wisconsin's Assembly map systematically dilutes the weight of Democratic votes is correct.
Group-Based Dominance and Authoritarian Aggression Predict Support for Donald Trump in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election
Jake Womick et al.
Social Psychological and Personality Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
In three convenience samples (combined N = 3,755) and one nationally representative survey (N = 1,500), we investigated whether and how right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) and social dominance orientation (SDO) were associated with support for Donald Trump during the 2016 U.S. presidential election. In all samples, facets of RWA and SDO predicted support for Trump (compared to other Republican, Democratic, and Libertarian candidates), even after adjusting for demographic factors and religious affiliation. In comparison with supporters of other Republican candidates, Trump supporters were consistently higher in group-based dominance and authoritarian aggression (but not submission or conventionalism). These results highlight the real-world significance of psychological theories and constructs and establish that Trump voters were uniquely driven by the desire to dominate out-group members in an aggressive manner.
How Voters Punish and Donors Protect Legislators Embroiled in Scandal
Brian Hamel & Michael Miller
Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Previous studies have largely overlooked three key components of a scandal that could determine how it shapes election outcomes: the extent to which it is covered in the media, the potential that donors respond differently than voters, and the likelihood that the impact of scandals have changed over time. Examining U.S. House scandals between 1980 and 2010, we find that while scandal-tainted politicians receive fewer votes and are less likely to win than otherwise similar legislators not embroiled in scandal, donors actually contribute more money to their campaigns after the scandal's revelation. Both of these effects, however, are limited to financial and sex scandals that garnered national media attention. Moreover, we find that voters are less punitive and donors are even more supportive in the post-1994 period of nationalized electoral politics.
Financial Asset Ownership and Political Partisanship: Liberty Bonds and Republican Electoral Success in the 1920s
Eric Hilt & Wendy Rahn
NBER Working Paper, June 2018
Abstract:
We analyze the effects of ownership of liberty bonds, which were marketed to households during World War I, on election outcomes in the 1920s. In order to address the endogeneity of liberty bond subscriptions, we utilize the local severity of the fall 1918 influenza epidemic, which disrupted the largest liberty bond campaign, as an instrument. We find that counties with higher liberty bond ownership rates turned against the Democratic Party in the presidential elections of 1920 and 1924. This was a reaction to the depreciation of the bonds prior to the 1920 election (when the Democrats held the presidency), and the appreciation of the bonds in the early 1920s (under a Republican president), as the Fed raised and then subsequently lowered interest rates. Our results suggest the liberty bond campaigns had unintended political consequences and illustrate the potential for financial asset ownership to increase the sensitivity of ordinary households to economic policy decisions.
Learning from Recounts
Stephen Ansolabehere et al.
Election Law Journal, June 2018, Pages 100-116
Abstract:
We compare the results of two recent statewide recounts in Wisconsin - the 2011 Supreme Court election and the 2016 presidential election. Using the measure of absolute differences between the original tally and the recount, we find an error rate at the reporting unit level of 0.21% in 2011 and 0.59% in 2016. The 2016 error rate drops to 0.17% when write-in votes are removed from the analysis. We also find that paper ballots originally counted with optical scanners were counted more accurately than ballots originally counted by hand. To reach these conclusions, we address the methodology of measuring differences in election night and recounted vote tallies. The most commonly used measure to compare election-night and recounted tallies, the net difference, significantly understates the magnitude of errors in the original tally. We also develop a regression-based technique that estimates what the error rate should be if a ballot-by-ballot recount were possible. We conclude by discussing the implications for requiring post-election audits.
Walking the walk? Experiments on the effect of pledging to vote on youth turnout
Mia Costa, Brian Schaffner & Alicia Prevost
PLoS ONE, May 2018
Abstract:
Psychological theories of political behavior suggest that commitments to perform a certain action can significantly increase the likelihood of such action, but this has rarely been tested in an experimental context. Does pledging to vote increase turnout? In cooperation with the Environmental Defense Fund during the 2016 election, we conduct the first randomized controlled trials testing whether young people who pledge to vote are more likely to turn out than those who are contacted using standard Get-Out-the-Vote materials. Overall, pledging to vote increased voter turnout by 3.7 points among all subjects and 5.6 points for people who had never voted before. These findings lend support for theories of commitment and have practical implications for mobilization efforts aimed at expanding the electorate.
A Multimedia Analysis of Persuasion in the 2016 Presidential Election: Comparing the Unique and Complementary Effects of Political Comedy and Political Advertising
Benjamin Warner et al.
Mass Communication and Society, forthcoming
Abstract:
In this study, we test the indirect and conditional persuasive effects of a broadcast media echo chamber by combining political campaign attack ads with mockery and criticism on a late-night comedy program. A randomized experiment was conducted in which participants (N = 559) were assigned to view one of four reconstructed episodes of Late Night with Seth Meyers: (a) anti-Trump comedy with anti-Trump campaign ads, (b) anti-Trump comedy with nonpolitical ads, (c) nonpolitical comedy with anti-Trump ads, and (d) nonpolitical comedy with nonpolitical ads. Results suggested that both comedy and ads exert persuasive effects on image perceptions of the candidates that subsequently influence vote intention. Furthermore, effects were largely confined to those who were high in need for cognition. There was no additive benefit to pairing ads with political comedy. The results are discussed regarding their contribution to theories of persuasion and information processing when applied to political comedy and political ads.