Make up your mind
Quality, Subjectivity, and Sustained Superior Performance at the Olympic Games
David Waguespack & Robert Salomon
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
In some competitions, performance evaluation includes a substantial subjective component. We argue that the inherent uncertainty and ambiguity in subjective evaluation can lead to favorable ex post treatment for reputationally privileged competitors. Post consumption, judges may infer quality that is not directly observed and/or make conservative choices to assuage accountability concerns. We examine these issues in the context of the Olympic Games, comparing country-level performance outcomes across Olympic sports. We find that past performance is predictive of current performance in all sports, but the effect is stronger in subjective outcome sports versus objective outcome sports. That is, past performance is a better predictor of future performance in sports where external judges and referees can influence the outcomes. We find the same pattern in individual boxing matches, with past country-level performance having a stronger effect on subjective boxing outcomes (judges' decisions) than objective boxing outcomes (knockouts).
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The highest form of intelligence: Sarcasm increases creativity for both expressers and recipients
Li Huang, Francesca Gino & Adam Galinsky
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, forthcoming
Abstract:
Sarcasm is ubiquitous in organizations. Despite its prevalence, we know surprisingly little about the cognitive experiences of sarcastic expressers and recipients or their behavioral implications. The current research proposes and tests a novel theoretical model in which both the construction and interpretation of sarcasm lead to greater creativity because they activate abstract thinking. Studies 1 and 2 found that both sarcasm expressers and recipients reported more conflict but also demonstrated enhanced creativity following a simulated sarcastic conversation or after recalling a sarcastic exchange. Study 3 demonstrated that sarcasm's effect on creativity for both parties was mediated by abstract thinking and generalizes across different forms of sarcasm. Finally, Study 4 found that when participants expressed sarcasm toward or received sarcasm from a trusted other, creativity increased but conflict did not. We discuss sarcasm as a double-edged sword: despite its role in instigating conflict, it can also be a catalyst for creativity.
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The Continued Influence of Implied and Explicitly Stated Misinformation in News Reports
Patrick Rich & Maria Zaragoza
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, forthcoming
Abstract:
The piecemeal reporting of unfolding news events can lead to the reporting of mistaken information (or misinformation) about the cause of the newsworthy event, which later needs to be corrected. Studies of the continued influence effect have shown, however, that corrections are not entirely effective in reversing the effects of initial misinformation. Instead, participants continue to rely on the discredited misinformation when asked to draw inferences and make judgments about the news story. Most prior studies have employed misinformation that explicitly states the likely cause of an outcome. However, news stories do not always provide misinformation explicitly, but instead merely imply that something or someone might be the cause of an adverse outcome. Two experiments employing both direct and indirect measures of misinformation reliance were conducted to assess whether implied misinformation is more resistant to correction than explicitly stated misinformation. The results supported this prediction. Experiment 1 showed that corrections reduced misinformation reliance in both the explicit and implied conditions, but the correction was much less effective following implied misinformation. Experiment 2 showed that implied misinformation was more resistant to correction than explicit misinformation, even when the correction was paired with an alternative explanation. Finally, Experiment 3 showed that greater resistance to correction in the implied misinformation condition did not reflect greater disbelief in the correction. Potential reasons why implied misinformation is more difficult to correct than explicitly provided misinformation are discussed.
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Words speak louder: Conforming to preferences more than actions
Yanping Tu & Ayelet Fishbach
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, August 2015, Pages 193-209
Abstract:
Whereas people generally conform to others' choices, this research documents that conformity decreases once others have acted on their chosen options. It suggests words speak louder than actions - people are more likely to conform to others' preferences than their actions. Specifically, people are less likely to follow another person's food choice if that person has already eaten his or her selected food (Study 1), and are less likely to follow others' choices of household items if these choices are framed in terms of action (others "want to have it") rather than preference (others "like it"; Study 2). People's tendency to mentally share others' actions causes the decrease in conformity. Indeed, people recall greater past consumption of items that others have had (Study 3), choose differently only when they can complement (vs. contradict) what others have (Study 4), and are more strongly affected by the choices of those close to them (vs. strangers; Study 5). Finally, even when information about others' actions and preferences are simultaneously available (e.g., in online shopping and the consumption of social media), people are more likely to follow what others prefer, rather than what others have (Study 6).
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Pain and Preferences: Observed Decisional Conflict and the Convergence of Preferences
Rom Schrift & Moty Amar
Journal of Consumer Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Decision making often entails conflict. In many situations, the symptoms of such decisional conflict are conspicuous. This paper explores an important and unexamined question: How does observing someone else experiencing decisional conflict impact our own preferences? The authors show that observing others' emotional conflict and agony over an impending decision makes the observer's preferences converge to those of the conflicted actor (i.e., choose similarly). Thus, this paper contributes to the social influence literature by demonstrating that observers' preferences are not only influenced by an actor's ultimate choice, but also by the process leading to this choice. For example, in one experiment, participants' real monetary donations to one of two charities converged to those of a paid confederate that agonized over the decision. Six studies demonstrate this effect and show that it is triggered by empathy and a greater sense of shared identity with the conflicted actor. Accordingly, the studies show the effect is more pronounced for individuals with a greater tendency to empathize with others, and that convergence occurs only if participants deem the actor's conflict warranted given the decision at hand. The authors also demonstrate important implications of this effect in contexts of group decision-making.
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Two-stage decisions increase preference for hedonic options
Rajesh Bhargave, Amitav Chakravarti & Abhijit Guha
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, September 2015, Pages 123-135
Abstract:
When choosing from multiple options, decision-makers may directly choose an option (single-stage decision), or initially shortlist a subset of options, and then choose an option from this shortlist (two-stage decision). Past work suggests that these two decision formats should lead to the same final choice when information about the choice alternatives is held constant. In contrast, this research demonstrates a novel effect: two-stage decisions increase preference for hedonic (vs. utilitarian) options. A regulatory focus account explains this effect. In a two-stage process, after shortlisting, decision-makers feel that they have sufficiently advanced their prevention goals, and this reduces their prevention focus during the final choice stage. Reduced prevention focus, in turn, enhances hedonic preference. Four studies across different decision contexts illustrate this effect and support the underlying process mechanism. The findings suggest that the formal structure of a decision (single-stage vs. two-stage) leads to systematic differences in decision-makers' choices.
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Do Prediction Markets Aid Defenders in a Weak-Link Contest?
Cary Deck, Li Hao & David Porter
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, September 2015, Pages 248-258
Abstract:
Laboratory experiments have demonstrated that prediction market prices weakly aggregate the disparate information of the traders about states (moves) of nature. However, in many practical applications one is attempting to predict the move of a strategic rival. This is particularly important in aggressor-defender contests. This paper reports an experiment where the defender may have the advantage of observing a prediction market on the aggressor's action. The results of the experiments indicate that: the use of prediction markets does not increase the defender's win rate; prediction markets contain reliable information regarding aggressors' decisions that is not being exploited by defenders; and the existence of a prediction market does not alter the behavior of the aggressor whose behavior is being forecast.
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Cognitive Training Can Reduce Civilian Casualties in a Simulated Shooting Environment
Adam Biggs, Matthew Cain & Stephen Mitroff
Psychological Science, August 2015, Pages 1164-1176
Abstract:
Shooting a firearm involves a complex series of cognitive abilities. For example, locating an item or a person of interest requires visual search, and firing the weapon (or withholding a trigger squeeze) involves response execution (or inhibition). The present study used a simulated shooting environment to establish a relationship between a particular cognitive ability and a critical shooting error - response inhibition and firing on civilians, respectively. Individual-difference measures demonstrated, perhaps counterintuitively, that simulated civilian casualties were not related to motor impulsivity (i.e., an itchy trigger finger) but rather to an individual's cognitive ability to withhold an already initiated response (i.e., an itchy brain). Furthermore, active-response-inhibition training reduced simulated civilian casualties, which revealed a causal relationship. This study therefore illustrates the potential of using cognitive training to possibly improve shooting performance, which might ultimately provide insight for military and law-enforcement personnel.
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Matthijs Baas et al.
Psychology of Aesthetics, Creativity, and the Arts, August 2015, Pages 340-354
Abstract:
To examine laypeople's beliefs about the conception of creativity, we asked people (N = 891) to indicate the extent to which they believed that certain cognitive processes, mind states, and circumstances were conducive to creativity (Studies 1-3). We further examined whether these beliefs are in line with their own experiences (Study 2) and with scientific evidence (General Discussion), and we examined the consequences that these beliefs have for the circumstances and conditions people select if creativity is required (Study 3). Findings showed that people have strong beliefs about the facilitating processes and circumstances for creativity. However, these beliefs are often incomplete and not in line with their own experiences and current empirical evidence. Moreover, lay beliefs inform the choices that people make about how to shape the circumstances to putatively stimulate their creativity. Therefore, a better understanding of the scientific evidence about creativity is crucial to help practitioners select and shape the processes and circumstances that stimulate creativity.
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Earnings and hindsight bias: An experimental study
Patricia Chelley-Steeley, Brian Kluger & Jim Steeley
Economics Letters, September 2015, Pages 130-132
Abstract:
We conduct prediction experiments where subjects estimate, and later reconstruct probabilities of upcoming events. Subjects also value state-contingent claims on these events. We find that hindsight bias is greater for events where subjects earned more money.
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Jonathan Renshon
International Organization, Summer 2015, Pages 659-695
Abstract:
Status has long been implicated as a critical value of states and leaders in international politics. However, decades of research on the link between status and conflict have yielded divergent findings, and little evidence of a causal relationship. I attempt to resolve this impasse by shifting the focus from status to relative status concerns in building a theory of status from the ground up, beginning with its behavioral microfoundations. I build on and extend previous work through an experimental study of status threats and the escalation of commitment, operationalized here as a new behavioral escalation task using real financial incentives and framed around a narrative of war and peace. I utilize a unique sample of high-profile political and military leaders from the Senior Executive Fellow (SEF) program at the Harvard Kennedy School, as well as a group of demographically matched control subjects, allowing me to evaluate the moderating effect of power on status concerns while also addressing typical concerns about external validity in IR experiments. I find strong evidence that the fear of losing status impedes decision making and increases the tendency to "throw good money after bad," but that power aids decision making by buffering high-power subjects against the worst effects of status loss.
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Graham Dixon et al.
Journal of Communication, August 2015, Pages 639-659
Abstract:
Although most experts agree that vaccines do not cause autism, a considerable portion of the American public believes in a link. In an experiment (N = 371), we identified journalistic balance as a source of misperception about this issue and examined ways to attenuate misperceptions. In particular, by including weight-of-evidence information (i.e., stating that only one view is supported by evidence and a scientific consensus), we explored whether an article can present conflicting views without causing misperceptions. Including weight-of-evidence information fostered more accurate beliefs about an autism-vaccine link, but only for people with favorable pre-existing scientific views. However, this conditional effect disappeared when visual exemplars accompanied weight-of-evidence information. The findings of this study have both theoretical and practical implications for science communication.
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When Knowledge Knows No Bounds: Self-Perceived Expertise Predicts Claims of Impossible Knowledge
Stav Atir, Emily Rosenzweig & David Dunning
Psychological Science, August 2015, Pages 1295-1303
Abstract:
People overestimate their knowledge, at times claiming knowledge of concepts, events, and people that do not exist and cannot be known, a phenomenon called overclaiming. What underlies assertions of such impossible knowledge? We found that people overclaim to the extent that they perceive their personal expertise favorably. Studies 1a and 1b showed that self-perceived financial knowledge positively predicts claiming knowledge of nonexistent financial concepts, independent of actual knowledge. Study 2 demonstrated that self-perceived knowledge within specific domains (e.g., biology) is associated specifically with overclaiming within those domains. In Study 3, warning participants that some of the concepts they saw were fictitious did not reduce the relationship between self-perceived knowledge and overclaiming, which suggests that this relationship is not driven by impression management. In Study 4, boosting self-perceived expertise in geography prompted assertions of familiarity with nonexistent places, which supports a causal role for self-perceived expertise in claiming impossible knowledge.
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Frighteningly Similar: Relationship Metaphors Elicit Defensive Information Processing
Lucas Keefer & Mark Landau
Social Psychological and Personality Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Messages in public discourse commonly employ metaphors to describe abstract sociopolitical issues in terms of unrelated concepts. In prior research, exposure to such metaphoric messages influences attitudes. The current research tests the novel possibility that metaphor exposure can elicit defensive avoidance of otherwise benign information. We build on the evidence that individuals with avoidant attachment style avoid thinking about close relationships, operationalized as lower recall of relationship information. Two studies show that dispositionally high and experimentally increased attachment avoidance impaired recall of messages framing political topics metaphorically in terms of close relationships. This effect is specific to the relationship metaphor and avoidance regarding relevant relationships. It held even when the message referred to positive relationships, casting doubt on an alternative valence priming explanation. Although the target political topics are not, literally speaking, close relationships, relationship-metaphoric messages led individuals who avoid relationship information to transfer that defensive processing style across domains.
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Improving dynamic decision making through training and self-reflection
Sarah Donovan, Dominik Güss & Dag Naslund
Judgment and Decision Making, July 2015, Pages 284-295
Abstract:
The modern business environment requires managers to make effective decisions in a dynamic and uncertain world. How can such dynamic decision making (DDM) improve? The current study investigated the effects of brief training aimed at improving DDM skills in a virtual DDM task. The training addressed the DDM process, stressed the importance of self-reflection in DDM, and provided 3 self-reflective questions to guide participants during the task. Additionally, we explored whether participants low or high in self-reflection would perform better in the task and whether participants low or high in self-reflection would benefit more from the training. The study also explored possible strategic differences between participants related to training and self-reflection. Participants were 68 graduate business students. They individually managed a computer-simulated chocolate production company called CHOCO FINE and answered surveys to assess self-reflection and demographics. Training in DDM led to better performance, including the ability to solve initial problems more successfully and to make appropriate adjustments to market changes. Participants' self-reflection scores also predicted performance in this virtual business company. High self-reflection was also related to more consistency in planning and decision making. Participants low in self-reflection benefitted the most from training. Organizations could use DDM training to establish and promote a culture that values self-reflective decision making.
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Creativity and Memory: Effects of an Episodic-Specificity Induction on Divergent Thinking
Kevin Madore, Donna Rose Addis & Daniel Schacter
Psychological Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
People produce more episodic details when imagining future events and solving means-end problems after receiving an episodic-specificity induction - brief training in recollecting details of a recent event - than after receiving a control induction not focused on episodic retrieval. Here we show for the first time that an episodic-specificity induction also enhances divergent creative thinking. In Experiment 1, participants exhibited a selective boost on a divergent-thinking task (generating unusual uses of common objects) after a specificity induction compared with a control induction; by contrast, performance following the two inductions was similar on an object association task thought to involve little divergent thinking. In Experiment 2, we replicated the specificity-induction effect on divergent thinking using a different control induction, and also found that participants performed similarly on a convergent-thinking task following the two inductions. These experiments provide novel evidence that episodic memory is involved in divergent creative thinking.
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Good self, bad self: Initial success and failure moderate the endowment effect
Theodore Alexopoulos, Milija Šimleša & Mélanie Francis
Journal of Economic Psychology, October 2015, Pages 32-40
Abstract:
Recent research on the endowment effect (a gap between selling and buying prices for the same good) considers as a working hypothesis that an endowed good becomes part of the self. Consequently, the endowment effect is viewed as a self-enhancement strategy originating or following from this self-object link. Within this perspective, subsequent self-threat typically enhances the endowment effect, whereas self-affirmation eliminates the endowment effect. Contrasting these findings and drawing on the idea that initial self-evaluations constrain the value of a newly acquired object, we reasoned that failures (successes) of the self experienced before the endowment will lower (raise) the value of possessions and influence the endowment effect accordingly. In Studies 1 and 2, we show that a private self-threat (vs. no threat) induced before endowing (vs. presenting) participants with a good eliminates the endowment effect. In Study 3, we show that feelings of pride (vs. no pride) induced via proprioceptive feedback yields a reliable endowment effect. These findings suggest that initial self-success/failure moderates the endowment effect and further show that bodily cues influence property transaction.
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Reducing Misanthropic Memory Through Self-Awareness: Reducing Bias
Mark Davis
American Journal of Psychology, Fall 2015, Pages 347-354
Abstract:
Two experiments investigated the influence of self-awareness on misanthropic recall. Misanthropic recall is the tendency to recall more negative behaviors dispositionally attributed and positive behaviors situationally attributed than negative behaviors situationally attributed and positive behaviors dispositionally attributed. It was hypothesized that when one is self-aware, more systematic information processing would occur, thereby reducing misanthropic memory and influencing attitudinal judgments. The first experiment used a mirror and the second experiment used a live video to induce self- awareness. Participants were asked to form an impression of a group. The results of both experiments replicated the previously found pattern of misanthropic memory for non-self-aware participants (ybarra & stephan, 1996), and revealed less misanthropic recall bias in self-aware participants.
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The Influence of Serotonin Deficiency on Choice Deferral and the Compromise Effect
Marcel Lichters et al.
Journal of Marketing Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Psychological and physiological states such as mood, hunger, stress and sleep deprivation are known to affect decision-making processes and therefore crucially impact consumer behavior. A possible biological mechanism underlying the observed variability of consumer behavior is the context-sensitive variation in the levels of neuromodulators in the brain. In a series of four experimental studies, we pharmaceutically reduce the levels of the neurotransmitter serotonin in the brain to diminish the availability of subjects' cognitive resources. In doing so, we study how serotonin brain levels influence (1) subjects' tendency to avoid buying, and (2) their preference for product options that are positioned as a compromise in a given choice set rather than for more extreme alternatives (i.e., the compromise effect). Using realistic product choice scenarios in a binding decision framework, we find that a reduction of serotonin brain levels leads to choice deferral and eliminates the compromise effect, both as a within-subjects and as a between-subjects choice phenomenon. As such, this study provides neurobiological evidence for the assumption that the compromise effect is the result of deliberate and demanding thought processes rather than intuitive decision-making.