Made to Order
The Wandering Officer
Ben Grunwald & John Rappaport
Yale Law Journal, April 2020, Pages 1676-1782
Abstract:
“Wandering officers” are law-enforcement officers fired by one department, sometimes for serious misconduct, who then find work at another agency. Policing experts hold disparate views about the extent and character of the wandering-officer phenomenon. Some insist that wandering officers are everywhere - possibly increasingly so - and that they’re dangerous. Others, however, maintain that critics cherry-pick rare and egregious anecdotes that distort broader realities. In the absence of systematic data, we simply do not know how common wandering officers are or how much of a threat they pose, nor can we know whether and how to address the issue through policy reform. In this Article, we conduct the first systematic investigation of wandering officers and possibly the largest quantitative study of police misconduct of any kind. We introduce a novel data set of all 98,000 full-time law-enforcement officers employed by almost 500 different agencies in the State of Florida over a thirty-year period. We report three principal findings. First, in any given year during our study, an average of just under 1,100 officers who were previously fired - three percent of all officers in the State - worked for Florida agencies. Second, officers who were fired from their last job seem to face difficulty finding work. When they do, it takes them a long time, and they tend to move to smaller agencies with fewer resources in areas with slightly larger communities of color. Interestingly, though, this pattern does not hold for officers who were fired earlier in their careers. Third, wandering officers are more likely than both officers hired as rookies and those hired as veterans who have never been fired to be fired from their next job or to receive a complaint for a “moral character violation.” Although we cannot determine the precise reasons for the firings, these results suggest that wandering officers may pose serious risks, particularly given how difficult it is to fire a police officer. We consider several plausible explanations for why departments nonetheless hire wandering officers and suggest potential policy responses to each.
The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students
Desmond Ang
Harvard Working Paper, June 2020
Abstract:
Nearly a thousand officer-involved killings occur each year in the United States. This paper documents the large, racially-disparate impacts of these events on the educational and psychological well-being of public high school students in a large, urban school district. Exploiting hyper-local variation in how close students live to a killing, I find that exposure to police violence leads to persistent decreases in GPA, increased incidence of emotional disturbance and lower rates of high school completion and college enrollment. These effects are driven entirely by black and Hispanic students in response to police killings of other minorities and are largest for incidents involving unarmed individuals.
Compliance with Universal Background Check Gun Laws
Gary Kleck
Florida State University Working Paper, April 2020
Abstract:
State laws mandating background checks require that persons seeking to acquire a firearms undergo a background check for a record of criminal convictions and for other statuses at high risk of future violence. A few states have enacted laws extending these checks to cover gun transfers among private persons, not just those involving licensed gun dealers. That is, they provide for so-called “universal background checks” (UBCs). The same kind of law has been proposed at the federal level. The effectiveness of UBCs is dependent on how many people seeking to acquire a gun from a private party comply with the required background check. Colorado and Oregon provide publicly available data on the numbers of background checks, data that distinguish checks on attempted private transfers from checks on dealer transfers. Combined with estimates of total private gun acquisitions (with or without checks), these data indicate that only 10.6% of private transfers in Colorado in 2019 and 3.5% of those in Oregon in 2017 were subjected to a state-mandated background check. Compliance among those trying to get a gun via a private transfer appears to be low, which should temper expectations for the impact of UBCs on firearms acquisition by prohibited persons.
Effects of police body‐worn cameras on citizen compliance and cooperation: Findings from a quasi‐randomized controlled trial
Mustafa Demir, Anthony Braga & Robert Apel
Criminology & Public Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study tests the effect of body‐worn cameras (BWCs) on stopped drivers’ perceptions of complying with police directives, obeying traffic laws, and cooperating with the police. A quasi‐randomized controlled trial was conducted with drivers stopped at routine traffic checkpoints. Drivers in the treatment group encountered police officers wearing BWCs, and drivers in the control group encountered police officers without BWCs. Surveys were administered after the stop. Findings suggest motorists exposed to BWC officers reported significantly stronger agreement with compliance with police directives, obedience toward traffic laws, and assistance with police duties. Further analysis indicates BWCs generate indirect impacts on specific citizen compliance mediated through improvements in procedural justice, as well as indirect impacts on general compliance and cooperation mediated through improvements in both police legitimacy and procedural justice.
Racial Disparities in Police Use of Deadly Force Against Unarmed Individuals Persist After Appropriately Benchmarking Shooting Data on Violent Crime Rates
Cody Ross, Bruce Winterhalder & Richard McElreath
Social Psychological and Personality Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Cesario et al. argue that benchmarking the relative counts of killings by police on relative crime rates, rather than relative population sizes, generates a measure of racial disparity in the use of lethal force that is unbiased by differential crime rates. Their publication, however, lacked any formal derivation showing that their benchmarking methodology has the statistical properties required to establish such a claim. We use the causal model of lethal force by police conditional on relative crime rates implicit in their analyses and prove that their benchmarking methodology does not, in general, remove the bias introduced by crime rate differences. Instead, it creates strong statistical biases that mask true racial disparities, especially in the killing of unarmed noncriminals by police. Reanalysis of their data using formally derived criminality-correcting benchmarks shows that there is strong and statistically reliable evidence of anti-Black racial disparities in the killing of unarmed Americans by police in 2015-2016.
Racialized differences in perceptions of and emotional responses to police killings of unarmed African Americans
Ernest McGowen & Kristin Wylie
Politics, Groups, and Identities, May 2020, Pages 396-406
Abstract:
Widespread attention to, and mobilization against, police killings of unarmed African Americans shatter any lingering myths of a post-racial America. We argue that the entrenched racial divide in the lived experiences and perceptions of whites and African Americans is mediated by emotions. Continuing research about the perceptions of and emotions attached to political events by people of different races, we draw on an embedded experiment. We contend that stories about police killings will elicit distinct emotions from whites and African Americans. The experiment varies the race of a victim of a police-involved shooting as well as whether the victim was suspected of criminality. We find that the majority of respondents express disappointment without regard to condition and that African Americans are more likely than whites to express anger as an emotional response. We see in-group/out-group psychological tendencies, with whites who read about a white victim (regardless of criminality) more likely to recommend criminal charges for the officer versus those who received a black victim. The findings highlight how identity moderates the connection between emotions and politics while also contributing to our understanding of race relations today.
Stressed to the Punishing Point: Economic Insecurity and State Imprisonment Rates
Chad Malone & Ryan King
Social Currents, forthcoming
Abstract:
This research examines the association between economic insecurity and imprisonment rates in the United States. Building on Garland’s thesis about punishment and late modernity, it is hypothesized that rising economic insecurity in a population is associated with an increase in the imprisonment rate. This hypothesis is tested with state-level data for the years 1986-2013. Results indicate a robust association between changes in economic insecurity, measured as the percentage of households in a state losing a quarter or more of their income in a single year, and changes in imprisonment rates. This finding suggests that economic insecurity is not only relevant for explaining large-scale shifts in penal philosophy and practice, as prior sociological theory has argued. It also explains some of the year-to-year variation in imprisonment rates and points to another way in which inequality is associated with punishment.
Randomized controlled trial of social interaction police training
Kyle McLean et al.
Criminology & Public Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
We conducted a randomized‐controlled trial (RCT) of a social interaction training program to determine its effectiveness in improving attitudes and behaviors among police officers. Survey data and a series of difference‐in‐difference tests found that participating in the training program improved attitudes with treatment group officers placing higher priorities on procedurally fair communication during a hypothetical officer-citizen encounter. An interrupted time‐series analysis of official use‐of‐force reports provided no evidence that the training program altered officer behavior.
Pandemics, Protests and Firearms
Bree Lang & Matthew Lang
University of California Working Paper, July 2020
Abstract:
A record number of firearm background checks were completed at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and during the protests following the murder of George Floyd. Using monthly state-level data, we show that the increase in firearm background check rates in March, 2020 and June, 2020 differ from previous gun-buying events in at least two important ways. First, the increases in the background check rates surrounding COVID-19 and the George Floyd protests are significantly larger than previous gun-buying events. Second, the gun-buying events of 2020 are non-partisan; the effect in Republican-leaning states is statistically indistinguishable from the effect in Democrat-leaning states. We provide evidence that the recent spikes in background checks are not motivated by gun policy uncertainty and a significant fraction of background checks represent first-time gun buyers. We also discuss policy recommendations that may alleviate any negative outcomes associated with expanded gun ownership during an unprecedented pandemic.
Awareness of Sex Offender Registration Policies and Self-Reported Sexual Offending in a Community Sample of Adolescents
Hayley Cleary & Cynthia Najdowski
Sexuality Research and Social Policy, September 2020, Pages 486-499
Abstract:
Sex offender registration laws are widely implemented, increasingly restrictive, and intended to serve both specific and general deterrent functions. Most states have some form of policy mechanism to place adolescents on sex offender registries, yet it remains unclear whether adolescents possess the requisite policy awareness to be deterred from sexual offending. This study examined awareness of sex offender registration as a potential sanction and its cross-sectional association with engagement in several registrable sexual behaviors (sexting, indecent exposure, sexual solicitation, and forcible touching) in a community sample of 144 adolescents. Results revealed that many adolescents were unaware that these behaviors could result in sex offender registration. Moreover, over one-third of adolescents who incorrectly believed that youth cannot be registered were highly confident in their answers. Notably, nearly half the sample had engaged in at least one of the four registrable behaviors we assessed, and policy-aware youth were just as likely as others to have engaged in those registrable sexual behaviors. Our findings cast doubt on arguments that juvenile sex offender registration serves as a general deterrent, adding to a growing body of literature suggesting that the policy is ineffective and in need of reform.
How much damage do serial homicide offenders wrought while the innocent rot in prison? A tabulation of preventable deaths as outcomes of sentinel events
Enzo Yaksic et al.
Psychology, Crime & Law, forthcoming
Abstract:
The criminal justice system has allowed serial homicide offenders (SHOs) to commit additional homicides by failing to identify them after their initial homicide. Recidivism has been possible in instances where the SHO benefited from the wrongful incarceration of an innocent person for one of their homicides. Data from the National Registry of Exonerations was utilized to tabulate the full extent of these sentinel events, defined as the number of deaths that could have been prevented. Additional research was conducted to identify where victims fell in the offender’s killing sequence. This ancillary data revealed the number of victims whose deaths could have been prevented had the offender been apprehended earlier in their series of homicides. Sixty-two SHOs were responsible for 249 deaths, 114 of which were committed after an innocent person was incarcerated for the SHO’s initial homicide. To prevent further loss of life, law enforcement must: act upon accurate information; lower the SHO evidentiary threshold; prevent personal bias from influencing investigative steps; obtain training in the behavior of SHOs; admit mistakes; and re-examine convictions if wrongdoing is suspected.
Heart Rate Reactivity, Neighborhood Disadvantage, and Antisocial Behavior
Jill Portnoy et al.
Crime & Delinquency, September 2020, Pages 1392-1418
Abstract:
This article examines whether heart rate stress reactivity interacts with neighborhood disadvantage to predict antisocial behavior. Antisocial behavior was assessed in a community sample of 445 males and females (Mage = 11.92 years), using respondent and parent measures of antisocial behavior. Heart rate stress reactivity interacted with neighborhood disadvantage to predict parent-reported antisocial behavior. Specifically, the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and antisocial behavior was stronger among children with lower heart rate reactivity. This study is the first to find that heart rate stress reactivity interacts with the neighborhood environment to predict antisocial behavior. Findings demonstrate the importance of examining biological factors in conjunction with the broader environmental context to understand the development of antisocial behavior.
The Logic of Violence in Drug War
Juan Camilo Castillo & Dorothy Kronick
American Political Science Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Drug traffickers sometimes share profits peacefully. Other times they fight. We propose a model to investigate this variation, focusing on the role of the state. Seizing illegal goods can paradoxically increase traffickers’ profits, and higher profits fuel violence. Killing kingpins makes crime bosses short-sighted, also fueling conflict. Only by targeting the most violent traffickers can the state reduce violence without increasing supply. These results help explain empirical patterns of violence in drug war, which is less studied than are interstate or civil war but often as deadly.
Burglary Reduction and Improved Police Performance through Private Alarm Response
Erwin Blackstone, Simon Hakim & Brian Meehan
International Review of Law and Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Burglar alarms are the single most effective deterring and detecting measure to burglars. On net, alarms provide benefits to communities, but 94-99 percent of police responses are to false activations. Solving the false alarm problem could free up the resources equivalent to 35,000 U.S police officers. Response to false alarms is a private good while response to an actual crime is a public good. The paper analyzes a Public-Private-Partnership policy called Verified Response (VR) where the initial response is usually provided by private security under a competitive setting, and police respond only if a crime is verified. A case study of Salt Lake City, Utah is conducted using synthetic control methods to evaluate this program. The introduction of this policy is associated with an 87 percent annual reduction in police alarm response calls, a 26 percent reduction in burglaries, and faster response to all police calls. The paper relies on Public Choice theory to explain why this solution is not adopted in the majority of cities.
Does Fines Cause Financial Distress? Evidence From Chicago
Ryan Kessler
Brown University Working Paper, June 2020
Abstract:
This paper studies the effect of government fine and debt collection policy on individual financial well-being in the context of Chicago, where beginning in 2011 the city adopted a more aggressive traffic fine and debt collection policy. Using detailed traffic fine, credit report, and consumer bankruptcy records, I estimate that the policy change did not have a large effect on financial well-being as measured by credit scores, credit card balances past due, or debt in collections. The policy change did, however, cause a 1.1 standard deviation increase in the Chapter 13 bankruptcy rate, amounting to approximately 43,000 additional Chapter 13 bankruptcy filings through the end of 2017. The bankruptcy response was driven by an influx of filings by relatively low-income, low-asset individuals with significant traffic fine debt. For most Chapter 13 bankruptcy filers with traffic fine debt, bankruptcy provided no debt relief and limited asset protection at significant cost in bankruptcy court and attorney fees. These results highlight inefficiencies in revenue generation via fines.
Changes in firearm mortality following the implementation of state laws regulating firearm access and use
Terry Schell et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 30 June 2020, Pages 14906-14910
Abstract:
Although 39,000 individuals die annually from gunshots in the US, research examining the effects of laws designed to reduce these deaths has sometimes produced inconclusive or contradictory findings. We evaluated the effects on total firearm-related deaths of three classes of gun laws: child access prevention (CAP), right-to-carry (RTC), and stand your ground (SYG) laws. The analyses exploit changes in these state-level policies from 1970 to 2016, using Bayesian methods and a modeling approach that addresses several methodological limitations of prior gun policy evaluations. CAP laws showed the strongest evidence of an association with firearm-related death rate, with a probability of 0.97 that the death rate declined at 6 y after implementation. In contrast, the probability of being associated with an increase in firearm-related deaths was 0.87 for RTC laws and 0.77 for SYG laws. The joint effects of these laws indicate that the restrictive gun policy regime (having a CAP law without an RTC or SYG law) has a 0.98 probability of being associated with a reduction in firearm-related deaths relative to the permissive policy regime. This estimated effect corresponds to an 11% reduction in firearm-related deaths relative to the permissive legal regime. Our findings suggest that a small but meaningful decrease in firearm-related deaths may be associated with the implementation of more restrictive gun policies.
Visitation and Misconduct Among Maximum-Security Inmates
Thomas Reidy & Jonathan Sorensen
Prison Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study adds to the literature by clarifying the effects of visitation on serious and violent misconduct among maximum-security inmates through the application of propensity score matching (PSM). Findings demonstrate that once the visited and nonvisited groups were matched on covariates of visitation, major violations were significantly influenced by visitation from family and friends. The visitation group experienced a 25% reduction in major, violent, and injurious acts of misconduct. Results are discussed from the perspective of social support theory.