Looking Green
GDP and Temperature: Evidence on Cross-Country Response Heterogeneity
Kimberly Berg, Chadwick Curtis & Nelson Mark
NBER Working Paper, June 2023
Abstract:
We use local projections to estimate the cross-country distribution of real GDP per capita growth impulse responses to global and idiosyncratic temperature shocks. Negative growth responses to global temperature at longer horizons are found for all Group of Seven countries while positive responses are found for seven of the nine poorest countries. Global temperature shocks have negative effects on growth for around half of the countries and seemingly anomalous positive effects for the other half. After controlling for latitude and average temperature, positive growth responses to global temperature shocks are more likely for countries that are poorer, have experienced slower growth, are less educated (lower high school attainment), less open to trade, and more authoritarian.
Participating in a climate prediction market increases concern about global warming
Moran Cerf, Sandra Matz & Malcolm MacIver
Nature Climate Change, June 2023, Pages 523–531
Abstract:
Modifying attitudes and behaviours related to climate change is difficult. Attempts to offer information, appeal to values and norms or enact policies have shown limited success. Here we examine whether participation in a climate prediction market can shift attitudes by having the market act as a non-partisan adjudicator and by prompting participants to put their ‘money where their mouth is’. Across two field studies, we show that betting on climate events alters: (1) participants’ concern about climate change, (2) support for remedial climate action and (3) knowledge about climate issues. While the effects were dependent on participants’ betting performance in Study 1, they were independent of betting outcomes in Study 2. Overall, our findings suggest that climate prediction markets could offer a promising path to changing people’s climate-related attitudes and behaviour.
International Trade, Noise Pollution, and Killer Whales
Scott Taylor & Fruzsina Mayer
NBER Working Paper, June 2023
Abstract:
Orcinus Orca is the world’s largest predator, and simultaneously a significant tourist asset and cultural icon for much of the Pacific Northwest. In the past two decades, the Southern Resident Killer whale (SRKW) population has declined by more than 25 percent, putting them at risk of extinction. The cause of this decline is hotly debated. This paper employs novel data, an innovative noise pollution model, and quasi-experimental methods borrowed from environmental economics to solve this puzzle. We find consistent evidence that vessel noise pollution from international shipping has lowered fertility and raised the mortality of the SRKW significantly. Had noise pollution remained at its pre-1998 levels, the SRKW population would be 30% larger. Noise pollution is a growing threat to marine mammals worldwide.
Methods in open policy analysis: An application to California's building energy codes
Matthew Holian
Contemporary Economic Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Have building energy codes lowered energy consumption, and have their benefits outweighed costs? Using 2000 Census data, I estimate household energy expenditures by decade of home construction, controlling for household and home characteristics. I find homes built in the 1980s used $35 less in electricity and $46 less in natural gas, per year, compared to 1970s era homes. For Sacramento, energy codes pass a cost-benefit test when low-end policy costs are used, but fail with base-case costs. This study also clarifies how a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for a representative household fits into a comprehensive CBA.
Finance and Climate Resilience: Evidence from the long 1950s US Drought
Raghuram Rajan & Rodney Ramcharan
NBER Working Paper, June 2023
Abstract:
We study how the availability of credit shapes adaptation to a climatic shock, specifically, the long 1950s US drought. We find that bank lending, net immigration, and population growth decline sharply in drought exposed areas with limited initial access to bank finance. In contrast, agricultural investment and long-run productivity increase more in drought-exposed areas when they have access to bank finance, even allowing some of these areas to leapfrog otherwise similar areas in the subsequent decades. We also find unequal access to finance can drive migration from drought-hit finance-poor communities to finance-rich communities. These results suggest that broadening access to finance can enable communities to adapt to large adverse climatic shocks and reduce emigration.
Effects of expanding electric vehicle charging stations in California on the housing market
Jing Liang et al.
Nature Sustainability, May 2023, Pages 549–558
Abstract:
Vehicle electrification is critical to enabling countries to develop more sustainably. Wider electric vehicle (EV) adoption relies on the deployment of EV charging stations (EVCSs). However, the local benefits associated with offering more charging opportunities to nearby residents remain unexplored. Here we provide empirical evidence on the impacts of proximate EVCSs on housing prices in California. We apply a hedonic property value approach using the EVCS data combined with about 14 million housing transaction records during 1993–2021. Our results show that access to charging infrastructure can be capitalized into property values. The average price premium for houses with EVCSs within 1 km is about 3.3% (or US$17,212) compared with homes without proximate EVCSs. The largest effect is a 5.8% increase for houses with EVCSs within 0.4–0.5 km compared with houses without proximate EVCSs. We find different results across neighbourhoods with diverse socio-demographic characteristics. Proximity to EVCSs increases traffic flows by 0.3–0.5% and lowers particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions level by 1.3–2.2%. The increased property value after EVCS installation can incentivize the private real estate sector to expand the availability of charging services. More information on the housing price premium should be provided to facilitate the deployment of this sustainable infrastructure.
Fatal Errors: The Mortality Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts
Jeffrey Shrader, Laura Bakkensen & Derek Lemoine
NBER Working Paper, June 2023
Abstract:
We provide the first revealed preference estimates of the benefits of routine weather forecasts. The benefits come from how people use advance information to reduce mortality from heat and cold. Theoretically, more accurate forecasts reduce mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of mortality events and weather forecasts for a twelve-year period in the U.S. Results show that erroneously mild forecasts increase mortality whereas erroneously extreme forecasts do not reduce mortality. Making forecasts 50% more accurate would save 2,200 lives per year. The public would be willing to pay $112 billion to make forecasts 50% more accurate over the remainder of the century, of which $22 billion reflects how forecasts facilitate adaptation to climate change.
Guns versus Climate: How Militarization Amplifies the Effect of Economic Growth on Carbon Emissions
Andrew Jorgenson et al.
American Sociological Review, June 2023, Pages 418–453
Abstract:
Building on cornerstone traditions in historical sociology, as well as work in environmental sociology and political-economic sociology, we theorize and investigate with moderation analysis how and why national militaries shape the effect of economic growth on carbon pollution. Militaries exert a substantial influence on the production and consumption patterns of economies, and the environmental demands required to support their evolving infrastructure. As far-reaching and distinct characteristics of contemporary militarization, we suggest that both the size and capital intensiveness of the world’s militaries enlarge the effect of economic growth on nations’ carbon emissions. In particular, we posit that each increases the extent to which the other amplifies the effect of economic growth on carbon pollution. To test our arguments, we estimate longitudinal models of emissions for 106 nations from 1990 to 2016. Across various model specifications, robustness checks, a range of sensitivity analyses, and counterfactual analysis, the findings consistently support our propositions. Beyond advancing the environment and economic growth literature in sociology, this study makes significant contributions to sociological research on climate change and the climate crisis, and it underscores the importance of considering the military in scholarship across the discipline.
Inadvertent human genomic bycatch and intentional capture raise beneficial applications and ethical concerns with environmental DNA
Liam Whitmore et al.
Nature Ecology & Evolution, June 2023, Pages 873–888
Abstract:
The field of environmental DNA (eDNA) is advancing rapidly, yet human eDNA applications remain underutilized and underconsidered. Broader adoption of eDNA analysis will produce many well-recognized benefits for pathogen surveillance, biodiversity monitoring, endangered and invasive species detection, and population genetics. Here we show that deep-sequencing-based eDNA approaches capture genomic information from humans (Homo sapiens) just as readily as that from the intended target species. We term this phenomenon human genetic bycatch (HGB). Additionally, high-quality human eDNA could be intentionally recovered from environmental substrates (water, sand and air), holding promise for beneficial medical, forensic and environmental applications. However, this also raises ethical dilemmas, from consent, privacy and surveillance to data ownership, requiring further consideration and potentially novel regulation. We present evidence that human eDNA is readily detectable from ‘wildlife’ environmental samples as human genetic bycatch, demonstrate that identifiable human DNA can be intentionally recovered from human-focused environmental sampling and discuss the translational and ethical implications of such findings.
The property value impacts of industrial chemical accidents
Dennis Guignet et al.
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using hedonic methods, we examine how chemical accidents at industrial facilities impact home values. The study focuses on facilities regulated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Risk Management Plan (RMP) program, which is in place to reduce the risk of harm to offsite populations from accidental chemical fires, explosions, and releases of toxic vapors. RMP facility and accident data were linked to residential transactions in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. To facilitate causal inference, alternative difference-in-differences and triple differences models are estimated, where we compare homes near and far, and before and after, an accident; as well as homes near facilities where an accident did and did not occur. We find that the typical accident does not generally affect home values, but accidents resulting in offsite injuries, property damage, evacuations, or shelter-in-place orders lead to a 5% to 8% decrease in the value of homes within five kilometers; suggesting an average loss of $12,000 to $20,000. The benefits of policies that help avoid these impacts are particularly relevant from an environmental justice standpoint. Proximity to an RMP facility, irrespective of any incidents, is associated with significantly lower home values. Existing inequities are exacerbated by chemical accidents that impact offsite populations.
Twenty-first century increases in total and extreme precipitation across the Northeastern USA
Christopher Picard et al.
Climatic Change, May 2023
Abstract:
The northeastern USA has experienced a dramatic increase in total and extreme precipitation over the past 30 years, yet how precipitation will evolve across the Northeast by the end of the twenty-first century remains uncertain. To examine the future of precipitation across the Northeast, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model driven by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM) to simulate precipitation for historical (1976–2005) and future (2070–2099) periods. We compare precipitation from CESM-WRF hindcasts to gridded observations (Daymet), finding a 4.6% dry bias and 7.7% wet bias for total and extreme precipitation, respectively. CESM-WRF projections have increases in both total (9.7%) and extreme (51.6%) precipitation by the end of the twenty-first century, with winter having the largest increases in total precipitation (16.4%) and extreme precipitation (109.3%). These results are consistent with additional WRF simulations forced with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model and the North American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment archive. To investigate the drivers of precipitation change, we analyze several atmospheric variables and find that the projected increases in extreme precipitation are strongly related to increasing precipitable water over the eastern USA and the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding projected increases in total and extreme precipitation is critical for stakeholders to prepare for the impacts of intensified precipitation.
The Economic Determinants of Heat Pump Adoption
Lucas Davis
NBER Working Paper, June 2023
Abstract:
One concern with subsidies for low-carbon technologies is that they tend to go predominantly to high-income households. Previous research has shown, for example, that the top income quintile receives 60% of subsidies for rooftop solar and 90% of subsidies for electric vehicles. This paper finds that heat pumps are an important exception. Using newly available U.S. nationally representative data, the paper finds that there is remarkably little correlation between heat pump adoption and household income. Nationwide, 15% of U.S. households have a heat pump as their primary heating equipment, and adoption levels are essentially identical for all income levels ranging from the bottom of the income distribution (<$30,000 annually) to the top ($150,000+). Instead, the paper shows that heat pump adoption is strongly correlated with geography, climate, and electricity prices.