Line of succession
People Power or a One-Shot Deal? A Dynamic Model of Protest
Adam Meirowitz & Joshua Tucker
American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, a crucial question is whether popular protest is now likely to be a permanent part of Middle Eastern politics or if the protests that have taken place over the past two years are more likely to be a "one-shot deal." We consider this question from a theoretical perspective, focusing on the relationship between the consequences of protests in one period and the incentives to protest in the future. The model provides numerous predictions for why we might observe a phenomenon that we call the "one-shot deal": when protest occurs at one time but not in the future despite an intervening period of bad governance. The analysis focuses on the learning process of citizens. We suggest that citizens may not only be discovering the type or quality of their new government - as most previous models of adverse selection assume - but rather citizens may also be learning about the universe of potential governments in their country. In this way, bad performance by one government induces some pessimism about possible replacements. This modeling approach expands the formal literature on adverse selection in elections in two ways: it takes seriously the fact that removing governments can be costly, and it explores the relevance of allowing the citizen/principal to face uncertainty about the underlying distribution from which possible government/agent types are drawn.
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Competence Ratings in US Predict Presidential Election Outcomes in Bulgaria
Abigail Sussman, Kristina Petkova & Alexander Todorov
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Although democracies should ideally elect leaders based on their abilities, voters are often biased by seemingly unrelated factors, such as a candidate's appearance. Prior work examining the relations between election outcomes and appearance has primarily focused on a restricted range of the top candidates, examined in pairwise comparisons. In the present study, we tested whether the predictive ability of ratings based on facial appearance would extend to a wider range of candidates. Specifically, we examined whether individuals in the US could predict outcomes in the 2011 Bulgarian presidential elections by evaluating the facial appearance of 18 candidates. The large number of candidates naturally running for the high level office allows us to accurately test the strength of the relationship between judgments of facial appearance and election outcomes across a broad range of faces. We found that a strong correlation between ratings of facial competence and election outcomes persisted across the full range of candidates, and that US participants' hypothetical choices paralleled actual Bulgarian election outcomes. We demonstrated that competence ratings were more effective at predicting election outcomes than judgments on a variety of other characteristics deemed important by Bulgarian voters as well as ratings of attractiveness. Furthermore, judgments of competence largely drive the correlation between hypothetical and actual votes.
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State Religion and Freedom: A Comparative Analysis
Steven Kettell
Politics and Religion, forthcoming
Abstract:
State religions form one of the main features of the international political landscape, but scholarly research into their dynamics and effects remains limited. This article aims to address this deficiency through a comparative examination of state religions and levels of political and religious freedom. The findings show that countries with a state religion have substantially lower levels of freedom across a range of measurements than countries with no state religion. The absence of any clear correlation to levels of human development, religious diversity and religiosity indicates a key causal role for the institutional mechanics of state religion itself.
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Tribes, Coups and Princes: Building a Modern Army in Saudi Arabia
Stephanie Cronin
Middle Eastern Studies, January/February 2013, Pages 2-28
Abstract:
In the decades following the First World War, countries such as Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan used the creation of a modern army as an engine for wider processes of change. Such military-led state-building followed a precedent established in the previous century by Egypt and the Ottoman Empire. In these countries, military revolutions involving the introduction of new technologies and military tactics made essential broader transformations in tax, administrative and educational structures to finance the army and provide literate manpower. In Saudi Arabia, however, no such military revolution, dragging society in its wake, took place. Military expansion was funded not by domestic taxation but by oil royalties provided by a foreign concession, recruitment remained voluntary, avoiding the administrative centralization and bureaucratic rationality demanded by conscription, while both the integrative function of conscription and the emergence of a professional officer corps were sacrificed to the imperative of sustaining the tribal and family ascendancy of the al-Saud. Saudi Arabia entered the twenty-first century having experienced not military modernization but rather military modernization in reverse, the strength of tribal and family ties and patronage not weakened but rather embedded ever more deeply within a system of patrimonial rule.
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Andrew Nathan
Journal of Democracy, January 2013, Pages 20-25
Abstract:
The resilience of the Chinese authoritarian regime is approaching its limits. Theories of "threshold models" and "informational cascades" derived from the East German experience may help explain what happens next. China, however, is different from East Germany in several ways. Among other differences, it is not a client state and its economy is growing faster than those of its neighbors. Citizens are better informed about what other people think; the Chinese police are more skilled in the arts of repression, and the regime is more adaptive than other authoritarian regimes. A breakthrough moment could be triggered by several kinds of events. A key variable in the cascade model of political change is fear, and that seems to be diminishing.
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Louisa Greve
Journal of Democracy, January 2013, Pages 73-78
Abstract:
The response of the Chinese state (and of Chinese society at large) to the problems of the country's periphery - which includes not only Tibet, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia, but hundreds of counties, prefectures, and townships in Sichuan, Qinghai, Yunnan, and other areas - is piling more tension and misery upon the populations there, but it is not undermining state power. If anything, the party-state seems to draw strength from peripheral troubles, and indeed these troubles continually undermine prospects for better governance under any future rulers, including those installed by the 2012 Eighteenth Party Congress.
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Communism or communists? Soviet legacies and corruption in transition economies
Alexander Libman & Anastassia Obydenkova
Economics Letters, April 2013, Pages 101-103
Abstract:
The paper investigates the influence of path dependence on corruption in Russian regions. We show that even twenty years after the collapse of the USSR regions with higher share of Communist Party members in the 1970s have substantially higher corruption.
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Aylin Aydın
Law & Society Review, March 2013, Pages 105-134
Abstract:
One of the most prominent explanations of the creation and maintenance of independent judiciary is the "insurance theory" that proposes a positive relationship between political competition and judicial independence. But, does intense political competition inevitably lead to higher levels of judicial independence across all types of democracies? Conducting a large-N cross-country analysis over 97 democratic countries, this study shows that as democratic quality across countries changes, the impact of political competition on judicial independence changes as well. The empirical findings reveal that while in advanced democracies high levels of political competition enhances judicial independence, in developing democracies political competition significantly hampers the independence of the courts.
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When Voice Fails: Potential Exit as a Constraint on Government Quality
Robert Fleck & Andrew Hanssen
International Review of Law and Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Poorly governed (e.g., repressive) countries tend to be located near other poorly governed countries, and well governed countries near other well governed countries. Researchers, by identifying country characteristics (e.g., ethnic fractionalization) that may influence government quality, have provided one potential explanation: Neighboring countries tend to be similar with respect to those characteristics. In this paper, we draw on Hirschman's notion of "exit" as a disciplining device in order to provide a different, though complementary, explanation: The ability of a ruler to implement policy that displeases the country's populace is constrained by opportunities for residents to relocate to other countries nearby. To generate testable predictions about the effects of potential exit on government quality, we develop a simple theoretical model. We test the model's predictions using cross-sectional and panel data, controlling for other determinants of government quality. The evidence we present - which includes discussion of historical examples such as ancient Greece and the Soviet Bloc - supports the model's predictions.
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World-system position and democracy, 1972-2008
Rob Clark
International Journal of Comparative Sociology, October 2012, Pages 367-399
Abstract:
Global levels of democracy are higher than ever before, and democratic principles are now institutionalized as a world cultural norm. Nevertheless, a number of countries continue to feature governing systems that restrict political rights. Against this backdrop, I revisit traditional claims by world-system theory regarding the impact of the core/periphery hierarchy on national political systems. In doing so, I draw attention to the uneven character of democratic growth across world-system zones. Using an updated trichotomous measure of world-system position, and drawing from Freedom House and Polity IV ratings of democracy, I construct an annual time-series dataset producing a maximum of 5445 observations across 161 countries during the 1972-2008 period. Employing a series of random-effects tobit models with year-by-covariate interaction terms, I compare democratic growth among nations in the core, semiperiphery, and periphery. The results indicate significant gaps in democracy between core and non-core nations that are not dissipating over time, and that are perhaps growing slightly larger. In a series of robustness checks, I find that using an alternative measure of world-system position, an alternative measure of democracy, and an alternative estimation strategy produce similar results. In sum, despite the global spread of democracy, world-system boundaries remain fundamental in hindering cross-national convergence.
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Autocracies, democracies, and the violation of civil liberties
Jørgen Møller & Svend-Erik Skaaning
Democratization, January/February 2013, Pages 82-106
Abstract:
Research on autocracies and their consequences has been a growth industry in the latest decade. Nonetheless, the relationship between the type of autocracy and the violation of civil liberties has largely been ignored. In this article, we employ a new dataset, which includes cross-temporal data on freedom of speech, freedom of assembly/association, freedom of religion, and freedom of movement, to shed light on this issue. Analysing 182 countries in the period 1979-2008, we show that democracies repress civil liberties less than autocracies do, whereas we find little evidence to the effect that different kinds of autocracies violate civil liberties to different degrees. However, we also show that the differences between democracies and autocracies have declined starkly since the Cold War. Finally, our results demonstrate that the difference in the extent to which democracies and autocracies repress civil liberties is larger for the freedom of speech and freedom of assembly/association than for the freedom of religion and freedom of movement. We take the general difference between the two categories of liberties as evidence that autocracies repress political liberties more than private liberties because the former presents levers for oppositional activity. We argue that the cross-temporal differences are a consequence of the spread of more minimalist democracies since the end of the Cold War.
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Political Conservatism and Left-Right Orientation in 28 Eastern and Western European Countries
Anna Aspelund, Marjaana Lindeman & Markku Verkasalo
Political Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
The relationship between political conservatism and left-right orientation was examined in 15 Western European and 13 former communist Central and Eastern European countries using the data from European Social Survey Round 3 (N = 46,103) and Round 4 (N = 50,601). Cross-culturally validated values were used to measure the two potential aspects of conservatism: resistance to change and acceptance of inequality. Both of these aspects were positively related to right-wing orientation in Western countries. In the former communist countries, the relationships were positive, negative, and nonexistent; they differed between the countries and varied between 2006 and 2008. The results indicate that conservatism can be related to left-wing or right-wing orientation depending on the cultural, political, and economic situation of the society in question. The results also show that despite the shared communist past, former communist Central and Eastern Europe is a diverse region that should be treated as such also in research.
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Secular-Islamist Cleavage, Values, and Support for Democracy and Shari'a in the Arab World
Sabri Ciftci
Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Public opinion polls demonstrate that Arab citizens support both democracy and shari'a. I argue that individual values related to the secular-Islamist cleavage are instrumental in explaining this joint support. The analysis of the Arab Barometer Survey shows that individuals holding Islamic values are more favorable of shari'a, whereas those with secularist values tend to support democracy. However, the bivariate probit estimations also confirm that Arab opinion about these governing principles is more complementary and less divergent. The results imply that constitutional models combining Islam and democracy, rather than strictly secular institutions, may be more acceptable to Arab citizens.
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Regime Types and Democratic Sequencing
Jørgen Møller & Svend-Erik Skaaning
Journal of Democracy, January 2013, Pages 142-155
Abstract:
Many countries today appoint their governments on the basis of competitive elections but fall short with respect to other properties of liberal democracy. Such regimes can be classified in a conceptual typology based on a hierarchical distinction between electoral rights, civil liberties, and the rule of law. Empirical realities provide an almost perfect match with this hierarchy as high respect for the rule of law hardly ever exists without high respect for civil liberties, which almost never exists without high respect for electoral rights. This finding questions the potential of an ‘authoritarian' pathway to liberal democracy which privileges the rule of law over electoral rights.
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Quantifying Greed and Grievance in Civil War: The American War of Independence
Paul Hallwood
Defence and Peace Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
‘Greed' vs. ‘grievance' is weighed using a generally applicable methodology as motivations in the American War of Independence. Greed is quantified as the expected economic benefit of Independence - escaping colonial trade burdens and expected increased economic growth rates. Grievance is measured as willingness to pay to escape perceived political burdens. Quantification of the relative contributions is made possible by using estimates of expected war-costs. To the extent that the economic burden was insufficient to explain the War, the residual is ascribed to the grievance motivation. Both motives are shown to have contributed to the War, but grievance dominates.
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Threat and Right-Wing Attitudes: A Cross-National Approach
Emma Onraet, Alain van Hiel & Ilse Cornelis
Political Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Threat relates to right-wing ideological attitudes at the individual level. The present study aims to extend this relationship to the national level. More specifically, in a sample of 91 nations, we collected country-level indicators of threat (including inflation, unemployment, gross national product, homicide rate, and life expectancy). Moreover, we analyzed data from the European and World Value Survey (total N = 134,516) to obtain aggregated country-level indicators for social-cultural and economic-hierarchical right-wing attitudes for each of these countries. In accordance with previous findings based on the individual level, a positive relationship between threat indicators and right-wing attitudes emerged. This relationship was stronger than what was usually reported at the individual level. In the discussion, we focus on the mutually reinforcing influence at the individual and national levels in terms of right-wing attitudes.
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National identity and ethnic diversity
Paolo Masella
Journal of Population Economics, April 2013, Pages 437-454
Abstract:
In countries with high levels of ethnic diversity, "nation building" has been proposed as a mechanism for integration and conflict reduction. We find no evidence of lower intensity of national sentiment in more ethnically fragmented countries or in minority groups. National feelings in a minority can be higher or lower than in a majority, depending on the degree of ethnic diversity of a country. On the one hand, in countries with high ethnic diversity, nationalist feelings are less strong in minority groups than in the majorities; on the other hand, in countries with low ethnic diversity, the reverse is true.
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Greece: The persistence of political terrorism
George Kassimeris
International Affairs, January 2013, Pages 131-142
Abstract:
Greece has one of the most sustained problems of political terrorism anywhere in the world. From the mid-1970s to the present, the country's political and socioeconomic institutions have been confronted by systematic terrorist violence mainly at the hands of revolutionary guerrilla groups. The long story of Greek terrorism was thought to have ended in the summer of 2002 with the collapse of the country's premier terrorist group and one of Europe's longest-running gangs, the notorious Revolutionary Organization 17 November (17N). 17N's dismantling and imprisonment, rather than demoralizing and emasculating the country's armed struggle movement, led instead to the emergence of new urban guerrilla groups and an increase and intensification of revolutionary violence. In consequence, the article places Greek extremist violence in a broader political and cultural perspective and explains why it has become a permanent fixture of national public life.
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Social Media and the Arab Spring: Politics Comes First
Gadi Wolfsfeld, Elad Segev & Tamir Sheafer
International Journal of Press/Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
The goal of this article is to place the role that social media plays in collective action within a more general theoretical structure, using the events of the Arab Spring as a case study. The article presents two broad theoretical principles. The first is that one cannot understand the role of social media in collective action without first taking into account the political environment in which they operate. The second principle states that a significant increase in the use of the new media is much more likely to follow a significant amount of protest activity than to precede it. The study examines these two principles using political, media, and protest data from twenty Arab countries and the Palestinian Authority. The findings provide strong support for the validity of the claims.
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Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Foreign Interest Rate Movements
Peter Hull & Masami Imai
Journal of Development Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We exploit annual variation in influential foreign interest rates to identify externally-driven components of short-run income shocks in small open economies from 1971-2004 and explore the statistical nature of the income-civil conflict nexus. Our results show that movements in foreign interest rates have important effects on civil conflict risk through domestic economic channels. More importantly, the income-conflict relationship is found to be nonlinear - the conflict risk of ethnolinguistically fragmented countries is found to be much more sensitive to shifts in economic conditions than that of homogeneous countries. These results suggest an important mechanism by which short-term economic shocks affect the trajectory of the political and economic performance of ethnically divided states.