Lessons From The Street
When Avoidance Backfires: Interracial Officer-Citizen Dyads and the Consequences for Fleeing Suspects
Jamie Flexon, Stewart D'Alessio & Lisa Stolzenberg
Race and Justice, forthcoming
Abstract:
Research suggests that Black citizens who experience an elevated fear of law enforcement frequently engage in avoidance strategies, such as fleeing, when confronted by police. There is also strong reason to speculate that this avoidance behavior commonly transpires when the police officer is White. Problematically, this avoidance strategy may place these citizens at an increased risk for officer use of force as the police seek to subdue fleeing suspects. The current study uses data drawn from the Evaluation of Less-Lethal Technologies on Police Use-of-Force project and a series of logistic regression equations and mediation analysis to determine whether Black suspects are more apt to flee from White police officers than other officer-suspect racial dyads and, because of this fleeing behavior, have a greater likelihood of experiencing force. After controlling for a variety of salient factors, results indicate support for this scenario. Policy implications are discussed.
Community representation and policing: Effects on Black civilians
Joseph Risi & Corina Graif
Criminology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Does increased representation of Black individuals in the police force lead to less aggressive policing of Black individuals? The current study uses a Chicago panel data set with monthly police unit observations between 2013 and 2015 to understand 1) how police units' representation of Black individuals affects the number of stops of Black residents and 2) how individual police officers patrol differently depending on the racial/ethnic background of co-working officers. Using fixed-effects negative binomial regression, we found that increasing racial congruence between police officers and the community being patrolled was associated over time with fewer stops of Black residents. Individual analyses showed that Black (vs. White) officers stopped fewer Black civilians, with larger effects in police units with higher percentages of Black officers, indicating a unit group effect. Furthermore, as the number of Black officer co-workers in a shift increased, Black civilian stops declined for all officers, including White officers, which is consistent with active representation. These findings indicate that a more diverse and representative police force can reduce aggressive policing of minority communities by mitigating group threat and cultivating positive cross-racial exchanges within police organizations and smaller peer groups.
Examining the effect of permit-less carry laws on violent crime rates in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, and Wyoming
Cody Jorgensen
Criminology & Criminal Justice, forthcoming
Abstract:
In recent years, many states have loosened regulations regarding carrying a concealed firearm. Permit-less carry laws allow citizens who are legally allowed to own firearms to carry a concealed firearm in public without obtaining a permit. This trend is an evolution of right-to-carry legislation that swept the United States beginning in the late 1980s. Research tends to find that right-to-carry laws increase violent crime. This study examines the effect of permit-less carry laws, independent of right-to-carry laws, on violent crime rates in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, and Wyoming, the first states to adopt permit-less carry legislation, using a 50 state panel data set from years 1995 to 2019. The synthetic control method was employed to find that permit-less carry laws were associated with an increase in aggravated assault in Alaska but generally not associated with variations in violent crime rates in the other states. In sum, moving from right-to-carry to permit-less carry was not found to cause an additional increase in violence on top of existing right-to-carry laws.
Conviction, Incarceration, and Recidivism: Understanding the Revolving Door
John Eric Humphries et al.
NBER Working Paper, August 2024
Abstract:
Noncarceral conviction is a common outcome of criminal court cases: for every individual incarcerated, there are approximately three who are recently convicted but not sentenced to prison or jail. We develop an empirical framework for studying the consequences of noncarceral conviction by extending the binary-treatment judge IV framework to settings with multiple treatments. We outline assumptions under which widely-used 2SLS regressions recover margin-specific treatment effects, relate these assumptions to models of judge decision-making, and derive an expression that provides intuition about the direction and magnitude of asymptotic bias when they are not met. Under the identifying assumptions, we find that noncarceral conviction (relative to dismissal) leads to a large and long-lasting increase in recidivism for felony defendants in Virginia. In contrast, incarceration relative to noncarceral conviction leads to a short-run reduction in recidivism, consistent with incapacitation. While the identifying assumptions include a strong restriction on judge decision-making, we argue that any bias resulting from its failure is unlikely to change our qualitative conclusions. Lastly, we introduce an alternative empirical strategy, and find that it yields similar estimates. Collectively, these results suggest that noncarceral felony conviction is an important and potentially overlooked driver of recidivism.
Carjacking and homicide in Minneapolis after the police killing of George Floyd: Evidence from an interrupted time series analysis
Allison Lind et al.
Social Science & Medicine, October 2024
Abstract:
There is abundant research showing the disproportionate impacts of violence on health in disadvantaged neighborhoods, making an understanding of recent violent crime trends essential for promoting health equity. Carjackings have been of particular interest in the media, although little research has been undertaken on this violent crime. We use interrupted time series models to examine the impact of the police killing of George Floyd on the spatiotemporal patterns of carjacking in Minneapolis in relation to neighborhood disadvantage. To provide grounding, we compare our results to the well-studied patterns of homicides. Results indicate that carjackings both increased and dispersed spatially after the murder of George Floyd and subsequent social unrest, more so than homicides. Socially disadvantaged neighborhoods experienced the greatest absolute increase while more advantaged neighborhoods saw a greater relative increase. The challenge ahead is to identify policy responses that will effectively curb such violence without resorting to harsh and inequitable policing and sentencing practices.
A welfare analysis of Medicaid and recidivism
Erkmen Aslim, Murat Mungan & Han Yu
Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We present conservative estimates for the marginal value of public funds (MVPF) associated with providing Medicaid to inmates exiting prison. The MVPF measures the ratio between a policy's social benefits and its governmental costs. Our MVPF estimates suggest that every additional $1 the government spends on providing inmates exiting prison with Medicaid coverage can result in social benefits ranging between $3.45 and $10.62. A large proportion of the benefits we consider stems from the reduced future criminal involvement among former inmates who receive Medicaid. Employing a difference-in-differences approach, we find that Medicaid expansions reduce the average number of times a released inmate is reimprisoned within 1 year by approximately 11.5%. By combining this estimate with key values reported elsewhere (e.g., victimization costs, data on victimization and incarceration), we quantify specific benefits arising from the policy. These encompass diminished criminal harm due to lower reoffense rates, direct benefits to former inmates through Medicaid coverage, increased employment opportunities, and reduced loss of liberty resulting from fewer future reimprisonments. Net-costs consist of the cost of providing Medicaid net of changes in the governmental cost of imprisonment, changes in the tax revenue due to increased employment, and changes in spending on other public assistance programs. We interpret our estimates as conservative since we deliberately err on the side of under-estimating benefits and over-estimating costs when data on specific items are imprecise or incomplete. Our findings align closely with others in the sparse literature investigating the crime-related welfare impacts of Medicaid access, underscoring the substantial indirect benefits public health insurance programs can offer through crime reduction, in addition to their direct health-related advantages.
Criminal legal system engagement among people who use drugs in Oregon following decriminalization of drug possession
Hope Smiley-McDonald et al.
Drug and Alcohol Dependence, November 2024
Background: In February 2021, Measure 110 (M110) in Oregon decriminalized noncommercial possession of drugs. We examined criminal legal system (CLS) involvement of people who use drugs (PWUD) 2 years after decriminalization.
Methods: We conducted a quantitative survey of PWUD (N=468) in eight Oregon counties between March and November 2023. We ran multivariable models to examine predictors of CLS involvement and law enforcement stops.
Results: The majority of PWUD (74%) reported any past year CLS involvement; 67% had at least one law enforcement stop (mean of 11.4 and median of 3 law enforcement stops) and 33% had at least one jail incarceration. Among PWUD whom law enforcement had found to possess drugs (n=101), 77% had their drugs seized at least once, and 63% (n=56) were taken into custody for charges that did not include drug use or possession at least once. Younger age, cisgender male identity, unstable housing, and nonurban county location were associated with a higher prevalence of any CLS involvement. PWUD who were unstably housed had 6.80 more law enforcement stops than housed PWUD (95% CI: 4.03-9.57). PWUD in nonurban counties experienced 9.73 more law enforcement stops than those in urban areas (95% CI: 4.90-14.56). No significant differences were found by race or ethnicity and CLS involvement. Only 13% of PWUD were aware that all drugs had been decriminalized.
Security Theatrics: The Role of Visual Cues in Simulated Attacker Target Selection
Brandon Behlendorf & Theodore Wilson
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
Visibly deterring potential adversaries is central to security risk assessment and planning operations within many agencies including the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). Many visible security elements are employed by TSA toward these goals. Questions remain whether these elements deter/displace attackers, and answers are elusive in these data-poor contexts. Using a novel adversarial exercise with a national sample, our paired conjoint experiment across visibly-changing aviation environments finds the majority of tested security infrastructure visibly deterred simulated adversaries. Canine officer presence deterred, biometric scanners induced, and queue density had no appreciable effect upon target selection. Our findings offer useful criminological insights, clear policy applications, and novel quantitative methods for assessing visible deterrent processes in limited data environments.
When citizens legalize drugs
Elena Lucchese & Paolo Roberti
European Journal of Political Economy, December 2024
Abstract:
The demand for drug legalization is remarkably heterogeneous across countries and over time. A theory is presented to show that ruling politicians can influence this demand by choosing the level of enforcement of drug laws which will influence their exposure to drug use and their views on legalization. If legalization has, overall, expected social benefits, politicians opposed to it will adopt a higher level of law enforcement than politicians in favor. In this case, the level of law enforcement is excessive with respect to the optimal level. If instead, legalizing the drug has overall expected social costs, then the opposite will be the case. The examples of the Netherlands and the US are used to test the model.
Assessing the deterrent effects of ignition interlock devices: Deterrent effects of ignition interlock devices
Robert Zeithammer, James Macinko & Diana Silver
American Journal of Preventive Medicine, forthcoming
Methods: A discrete choice experiment was conducted and data were analyzed in 2023 with 583 U.S.-based adults who consume alcohol at least once in the past week to assess the deterrent effects of five different penalties (fine, jail time, interlock device, license suspension, alcohol treatment) for alcohol-impaired driving under randomized sequential scenarios of high (20% chance of being caught) and low (1%) police enforcement. Participants resided in 46 states.
Results: Deterrent effects of an interlock penalty, operationalized as having to install an interlock device for one year, are large and on par with a twentyfold increase in police enforcement activity (from 1% chance of being caught to 20%), or a $2,000 increase in the DUI fine under the status quo enforcement regime. On average, a 1-year interlock penalty had the same deterrent effect as a 10-day increase in jail time.