Jobs Picture
War Metaphors (What Are They Good For?): Militarized Rhetoric and Attitudes Toward Essential Workers During the Covid-19 Pandemic
Jessica Blankshain, David Glick & Danielle Lupton
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
During the COVID-19 pandemic, leaders and society at large invoked militarized rhetoric and war metaphors to elevate essential workers and inspire collective action. Using a survey experiment we investigate whether this type of framing affects public views about (1) individual responsibilities, (2) targeted polices, and (3) perceptions of those called heroes and soldiers. We find that the war metaphor has minimal effects on public attitudes toward policies and individual actions in response to the pandemic. Framing the response in militaristic terms does, however, appear to affect perceptions of essential workers. Counter to our hypotheses, subjects who saw essential workers called heroes or soldiers viewed them as more motivated by compensation rather than service, and expressed less respect for them, than respondents in the control. These findings, including the nulls, make important contributions to our understanding of the limits of framing effects in a polarized context.
The Long-Run Effects of Right to Work Laws
Matthew Lilley & Benjamin Austin
Harvard Working Paper, November 2021
Abstract:
In recent decades, states with Right-To-Work (RTW) laws have experienced higher employment and population growth than states without such laws. We investigate the extent to which these patterns, and other related labor market phenomena, are causally explained by these laws and closely related policies. Using border-pair differences, we find RTW laws are associated with a 3.2 percentage point increase in the manufacturing share of employment. This does not merely crowd out other economic activity; people who live in RTW regions have 1.6 percentage points higher employment, 1.4 percentage points higher labor force participation, and 0.34 percentage points lower disability receipt than residents of similar non-RTW areas. However, wages and labor compensation do not appear to be lower on average. In turn, these differences appear to influence both individual residence and workplace location choice. Since their passage, locations with RTW laws have seen higher population growth, and on net attract commuters from non-RTW locations. We investigate downstream effects on socioeconomic outcomes, and find lower childhood poverty rates and greater upward mobility. In particular, children at the 25th percentile of the parental income distribution during childhood have a 1.6 percentage point higher probability of reaching the top income quintile during adulthood if they grew up in a RTW location. These differences in outcomes were not present prior to the passage of RTW laws, persist after controlling for other major policy differences between states, and do not appear primarily attributable to local substitution.
Demand Stimulus as Social Policy
Alan Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Daniel Murphy
NBER Working Paper, September 2022
Abstract:
We exploit a panel of city-level data with rich demographic information to estimate the distributional effects of Department of Defense spending and its effects on a range of social outcomes. The income generated by defense spending accrues predominantly to households without a bachelor’s degree. These households as well as Black households tend to disproportionately benefit from this spending. Defense spending also promotes a range of beneficial social outcomes that are often targeted by government programs, including reductions in poverty, divorce rates, disability rates, and mortality rates, as well as increases in homeownership, health insurance rates, and occupational prestige. We compare the effects of defense spending with the effects of general demand shocks and explore reasons for the differential effects of the shocks.
Low Wages Aren't a Growing Problem
David Abraham & Simcha Barkai
University of Chicago Working Paper, October 2022
Abstract:
Statements by high-profile political figures and supporting academic research have led to a common perception of worsening job prospects for low-wage workers in the US. In this paper, we show that since the early 1980s there has been a decline in the share of workers earning low wages. This holds across sub-populations and across thresholds for determining what constitutes a low wage. Much of the decline occurs over two periods: the late 1990s and the late 2010s. The decline is greater and steadier for women than for men. We further show that the worker-level persistence of low wages has not increased, and has likely decreased, over time.
Employment protection legislation matters for the Phillips Curve
Daniele Siena & Riccardo Zago
Economics Letters, forthcoming
Abstract:
Liberal reforms of employment protection legislation (EPL) aim at fostering the flexibility, dynamism and fluidity of the labor market without increasing unemployment. A New Keynesian model with search-and-matching frictions implies that such type of reforms have also a direct impact on the structural relationship between prices and unemployment, i.e. the Phillips Curve (PC). We assess empirically the existence of this channel considering 19 episodes of EPL reforms across 13 countries. Consistently with the theory, countries that experienced an employment protection liberalization witnessed a flattening of the PC just after the reform.
The Geography of Job Tasks
Enghin Atalay, Sebastian Sotelo & Daniel Tannenbaum
NBER Working Paper, September 2022
Abstract:
We introduce new measurement tools to understand the sources of earnings differences across space. Based on the natural language employers use in job vacancy text, we develop granular measures of job tasks and of worker specialization. We find that jobs in larger commuting zones involve greater interpersonal interactions and have higher computer software requirements. Between 10 and 50 percent of task and technology variation between large and small commuting zones exists within occupations. Further, workers in larger markets are more specialized within occupations. Tasks, technologies, and worker specialization account for a substantial portion of the market size premium even within occupations.
Economic Outcomes of Strikers in an Era of Weak Unions
Maxim Massenkoff & Nathan Wilmers
Journal of Labor Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
From 1970 to 2000, worker participation in strikes decreased by 90%. We show using understudied measures from labor market surveys that strikers also experienced worse outcomes after 1981. Event study evidence from the PSID suggests that strikers enjoyed 5-10% wage gains before the 1980s, but null wage changes thereafter. Additional analysis of the SIPP, CPS and collective bargaining agreements reinforce the finding that strikes since the 1980s have not been associated with increases in wages, hours, or benefits. We attribute these findings to structural labor market shifts, and to a narrower deterioration in labor relations signalled by the PATCO strike.
Labor Supply and Occupational Choice
Andrés Erosa et al.
NBER Working Paper, September 2022
Abstract:
We document a robust negative relationship between mean annual hours in an occupation and the dispersion of annual hours within that occupation. We study a unified model of occupational choice and labor supply that features heterogeneity across occupations in the return to working additional hours and show that it can match the key features of the data both qualitatively and quantitatively. Occupational choice in our model is shaped both by selection on comparative advantage and selection on tastes for leisure. Our quantitative work finds that the dominant source of differences in hours across occupations is selection on tastes for leisure.
The Decline of U.S. Labor Unions: Import Competition and NLRB Elections
Zachary Schaller
Labor Studies Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
Why has private sector union participation fallen away so much in the United States since the late 1950s? Featuring an improved dataset on National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) representation elections, I present evidence that import penetration accounts for approximately 40 percent of the decline in union formation for U.S. manufacturing. This estimate translates to 4.6 percent of the decline in private sector union density. The effect is driven by trade with low-income countries and, to some extent, other high-income countries. China is not a factor early on, but their strong import growth since 2000 can account for about 12 percentage points of the total decline.
Urban-Biased Growth: A Macroeconomic Analysis
Fabian Eckert, Sharat Ganapati & Conor Walsh
NBER Working Paper, September 2022
Abstract:
Since 1980, US wage growth has been fastest in large cities. Empirically, we show that most of this urban-biased growth reflects wage growth at large Business Services firms, which are also the most intensive users of information and communications technology (ICT) capital in the US economy. We provide an explicit economic mechanism whereby ICT is more complementary with labor at larger firms. Quantitatively, we find that with such a complementarity, the observed decline in ICT prices alone can account for most of the urban-biased growth, since Business Services firms in big cities tend to be large.
Without a Word of WARN-ing: Advance Notice, the Information Environment, and Labor Market Outcomes
Sara Malik
University of Utah Working Paper, April 2022
Abstract:
This paper examines the effect of mandated advance notice on displaced workers’ short-term and long-term labor market outcomes. The impact is theoretically ambiguous: while advance notice mechanically increases job search time before displacement, it may also reduce both aggregate employment and the marginal incentive to search for new employment. Using the staggered adoption of U.S. advance notice laws between 2003 and 2017 and worker-level data, I find that advance notice is associated with a five percentage point reduction in joblessness incidence immediately after displacement. My analyses show that these short-term benefits accrue unevenly to displaced workers: women benefit more than men and skilled workers benefit more than un- skilled workers. Separately, I find a three percentage point increase in long-term labor force participation and a three percentage point increase in long-term re-employment. Using an online, randomized field survey, I find evidence that the improved long-term labor market outcomes are attributable to a reduction in the discouraged worker effect. Throughout the paper, I highlight when my results refute or overturn results in the prior literature. Overall, my results suggest that advance notice benefits displaced workers.
Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse
Arpit Gupta, Vrinda Mittal & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
NBER Working Paper, September 2022
Abstract:
We study the impact of remote work on the commercial office sector. We document large shifts in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents as firms shifted to remote work in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that the pandemic has had large effects on both current and expected future cash flows for office buildings. Remote work also changes the risk premium on office real estate. We revalue the stock of New York City commercial office buildings taking into account pandemic-induced cash flow and discount rate effects. We find a 45% decline in office values in 2020 and 39% in the longer-run, the latter representing a $453 billion value destruction. Higher quality office buildings were somewhat buffered against these trends due to a flight to quality, while lower quality office buildings see much more dramatic swings. These valuation changes have repercussions for local public finances and financial sector stability.