Intergenerational
Challenging the Link Between Early Childhood Television Exposure and Later Attention Problems: A Multiverse Approach
Matthew McBee, Rebecca Brand & Wallace Dixon
Psychological Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
In 2004, Christakis and colleagues published an article in which they claimed that early childhood television exposure causes later attention problems, a claim that continues to be frequently promoted by the popular media. Using the same National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 data set (N = 2,108), we conducted two multiverse analyses to examine whether the finding reported by Christakis and colleagues was robust to different analytic choices. We evaluated 848 models, including logistic regression models, linear regression models, and two forms of propensity-score analysis. If the claim were true, we would expect most of the justifiable analyses to produce significant results in the predicted direction. However, only 166 models (19.6%) yielded a statistically significant relationship, and most of these employed questionable analytic choices. We concluded that these data do not provide compelling evidence of a harmful effect of TV exposure on attention.
Parental Burnout Around the Globe: A 42-Country Study
Isabelle Roskam et al.
Affective Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
High levels of stress in the parenting domain can lead to parental burnout, a condition that has severe consequences for both parents and children. It is not yet clear, however, whether parental burnout varies by culture, and if so, why it might do so. In this study, we examined the prevalence of parental burnout in 42 countries (17,409 parents; 71% mothers; Mage = 39.20) and showed that the prevalence of parental burnout varies dramatically across countries. Analyses of cultural values revealed that individualistic cultures, in particular, displayed a noticeably higher prevalence and mean level of parental burnout. Indeed, individualism plays a larger role in parental burnout than either economic inequalities across countries, or any other individual and family characteristic examined so far, including the number and age of children and the number of hours spent with them. These results suggest that cultural values in Western countries may put parents under heightened levels of stress.
Twin Differences in Harsh Parenting Predict Youth’s Antisocial Behavior
Alexandra Burt et al.
Psychological Science, March 2021, Pages 395-409
Abstract:
In the current study, we leveraged differences within twin pairs to examine whether harsh parenting is associated with children’s antisocial behavior via environmental (vs. genetic) transmission. We examined two independent samples from the Michigan State University Twin Registry. Our primary sample contained 1,030 families (2,060 twin children; 49% female; 6–10 years old) oversampled for exposure to disadvantage. Our replication sample included 240 families (480 twin children; 50% female; 6–15 years old). Co-twin control analyses were conducted using a specification-curve framework, an exhaustive modeling approach in which all reasonable analytic specifications of the data are interrogated. Results revealed that, regardless of zygosity, the twin experiencing harsher parenting exhibited more antisocial behavior. These effects were robust across multiple operationalizations and informant reports of both harsh parenting and antisocial behavior with only a few exceptions. Results indicate that the association between harsh parenting and children’s antisocial behavior is, to a large degree, environmental in origin.
Differential susceptibility 2.0: Are the same children affected by different experiences and exposures?
Jay Belsky, Xiaoya Zhang & Kristina Sayler
Development and Psychopathology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Differential susceptibility theory stipulates that some children are more susceptible than others to both supportive and adverse developmental experiences/exposures. What remains unclear is whether the same individuals are most affected by different exposures (i.e., domain general vs. specific). We address this issue empirically for the first time using, for illustrative and proof-of-principle purposes, a novel influence-statistics’ method with data from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Study of Early Child Care. Results indicated that previously documented effects of greater quality of care on enhanced pre-academic skills and greater quantity of care on more behavior problems apply mostly to different children. Analyses validating the new method indicated, as predicted, that (a) the quantity-of-care effect applied principally to children from more socioeconomically advantaged families and that (b) being highly susceptible to both, one or neither childcare effect varied as a function of a three-gene, polygenic-plasticity score (serotonin transporter linked polymorphic region [5-HTTLPR], dopamine receptor D4 [DRD4], brain-derived neurotrophic factor [BDNF]) in a dose–response manner (i.e., 2>1>0). While domain-specific findings involving child-care effects cannot be generalized to other environmental influences, the influence-statistics’ approach appears well suited for investigating the generality–specificity of environment effects, that is, of “differential, differential susceptibility.”
The Opioid Epidemic and Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 2000–2016
Mónica Caudillo & Andrés Villarreal
Demography, February 2021, Pages 345–378
Abstract:
The United States has experienced a dramatic rise in opioid addiction and opioid overdose deaths in recent years. We investigate the effect of the opioid epidemic at the local level on nonmarital fertility using aggregate- and individual-level analyses. Opioid overdose death rates and prescriptions per capita are used as indicators of the intensity of the opioid epidemic. We estimate area fixed-effects models to test the effect of the opioid epidemic on nonmarital birth rates obtained from vital statistics for 2000–2016. We find an increase in nonmarital birth rates in communities that experienced a rise in opioid overdose deaths and higher prescription rates. Our analyses also show that the local effect of the opioid epidemic is not driven by a reduction in marriage rates and that marital birth rates are unaffected. Individual-level data from the ACS 2008–2016 are then used to further assess the potential causal mechanisms and to test heterogeneous effects by education and race/ethnicity. Our findings suggest that the opioid epidemic increased nonmarital birth rates through social disruptions primarily affecting unmarried women but not through changes in their economic condition.
Childbearing Postponement, its Option Value, and the Biological Clock
David de la Croix & Aude Pommeret
Journal of Economic Theory, forthcoming
Abstract:
Having children is like investing in a risky project. Postponing birth is like delaying an irreversible investment. It has an option value, which depends on its costs and benefits, and in particular on the additional risks motherhood brings. We develop a parsimonious theory of childbearing postponement along these lines. We derive its implications for asset accumulation, income, optimal age at first birth, and childlessness. The structural parameters are estimated by matching the predictions of the model to data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth NLSY79. The uncertainty surrounding income growth is shown to increase with childbearing, and this increase is stronger for more educated people. This effect alone can explain why the age at first birth and the childlessness rate both increase with education. We use the model to simulate two hypothetical policies. Providing free medically assisted reproduction technology does not affect the age at first birth much, but lowers the childlessness rate. Insuring mothers against income risk is powerful in lowering the age at first birth.
Abortion Costs and Single Parenthood: A Life-Cycle Model of Fertility and Partnership Behavior
Matthew Forsstrom
Labour Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
I estimate a structural model that nests four channels through which abortion costs impact partnership and fertility. Variation in parental consent laws helps to identify the relative importance of each theoretical channel, and simulations decompose total policy effects into theoretical channels. Results indicate that the largest effect of parental consent laws is on the abortion decision for pregnant minors. But there are also meaningful effects on marriage opportunities for pregnant minors and on sexual and contraceptive behavior. These effects combine to impact family structure and human capital accumulation over the life-cycle. Simulations show that parental consent laws reduce the accumulation of human capital via impacts of children on school attendance and also increase the probability that women spend time as unwed mothers. A counterfactual abortion ban is predicted to increase birth rates at all ages and subsequently increase unwed motherhood and reduce schooling.