Inside track
The Hidden American Immigration Consensus: A Conjoint Analysis of Attitudes toward Immigrants
Jens Hainmueller & Daniel Hopkins
American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Many studies have examined Americans' immigration attitudes. Yet prior research frequently confounds multiple questions, including which immigrants to admit and how many to admit. To isolate attitudes on the former question, we use a conjoint experiment that simultaneously tests the influence of nine immigrant attributes in generating support for admission. Drawing on a two-wave, population-based survey, we demonstrate that Americans view educated immigrants in high-status jobs favorably, whereas they view those who lack plans to work, entered without authorization, are Iraqi, or do not speak English unfavorably. Strikingly, Americans' preferences vary little with their own education, partisanship, labor market position, ethnocentrism, or other attributes. Beneath partisan divisions over immigration lies a broad consensus about who should be admitted to the country. The results are consistent with norms-based and sociotropic explanations of immigration attitudes. This consensus points to limits in both theories emphasizing economic and cultural threats, and sheds new light on an ongoing policy debate.
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Eric Gould & Esteban Klor
Economic Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper investigates whether the 9/11 attacks affected the assimilation rate of Muslims in the United States. Terror attacks by Islamic groups are likely to induce a backlash against Muslims, thereby raising their costs of assimilation. We find that Muslim immigrants living in states with the sharpest increase in hate crimes also exhibit: (i) greater chances of marrying within their own ethnic group; (ii) higher fertility; (iii) lower female labour force participation; and (iv) lower English proficiency. These findings shed light on the increasing use of terror and concurrent rise in social tensions surrounding Muslim immigrants in the West.
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Kirk Doran, Alexander Gelber & Adam Isen
NBER Working Paper, November 2014
Abstract:
We study the effect of winning an additional H-1B visa on a firm's patenting and employment outcomes. We compare firms randomly allocated H-1Bs in the Fiscal Year 2006 and 2007 H-1B visa lotteries to other firms randomly not allocated H-1Bs in these lotteries. We use Department of Homeland Security administrative data on the winners and losers in these lotteries matched to administrative data on the universe of approved U.S. patents, and matched to IRS administrative data on the universe of U.S. employment. Winning an H-1B visa has an insignificant average effect on patenting, with confidence intervals that rule out moderate-sized effects and that are even more precise in many cases. Employment data generally show that on average H-1B workers at least partially replace other workers in the same firm, with estimates typically indicating substantial crowdout of other workers.
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Evidence of political moderation over time: Utah’s immigration debate online
Brian Harris, Charlie Morgan & Benjamin Gibbs
New Media & Society, December 2014, Pages 1309-1331
Abstract:
Is public debate on the Internet polarizing? Some scholars warn that the Internet is an ‘anti-commons’ where political positions are extreme, while others view the Internet as a moderating influence on political polarization. We examine polarization trends in a regional, Utah-based news website, with a random sample of 1768 comments over a two-year period. Focusing on the most contentious issue during this time — immigration — we find that extreme anti-immigrant sentiment decreases over time despite key political and religious events. We argue that emerging public spheres, like newspaper discussion forums, might reveal a general public inclination towards moderation during heated national and regional debate.
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How Much is a Green Card Worth? Evidence from Mexican Men Who Marry Women Born in the U.S.
Miao Chi & Scott Drewianka
Labour Economics, December 2014, Pages 103–116
Abstract:
Many countries impose restrictions on some immigrants’ job mobility, likely reducing their wages. We quantify such effects for Mexican-born men in the U.S. by recognizing that immigrants who marry U.S. natives receive expedited “green cards” (Permanent Residency). Robust IV estimates indicate intermarried Mexicans earn a 40 percent wage premium, and larger for the most mobile subgroups. Analogous premiums are statistically insignificant for men from Puerto Rico, who acquire no new rights because they are already U.S. citizens. Attributing the approximately 30 percent difference to green cards, we estimate eliminating wait times would increase Mexicans’ mean earnings $120,000-$150,000 in present value.
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Lunatics, Idiots, Paupers, and Negro Seamen — Immigration Federalism and the Early American State
Anna Law
Studies in American Political Development, October 2014, Pages 107-128
Abstract:
Why did it take the U.S. national government until 1882 to gain control over migration policies from the states, and what does this situation say about the strength of the early American State? This phenomenon is especially curious, since the control of entry into and across a nation is so fundamental to the very definition of a State. I argue that the delay of the national government takeover was not due to a lack of administrative capacity. Instead, there were regionally specific reasons that the states preferred to retain control of migration policy. The national government did not take over migration policy because of the strong nineteenth-century political-cultural understanding that many migration policies were properly within the province of local control. This article explains the timing and sequencing of state and federal controls over nineteenth-century migration policy and what this timing meant for the freedom of movement of many politically vulnerable classes of people.
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Fertility Responses of High-Skilled Native Women to Immigrant Inflows
Delia Furtado
University of Connecticut Working Paper, October 2014
Abstract:
While there is debate regarding the magnitude of the impact, immigrant inflows are generally understood to depress wages and increase employment in immigrant-intensive sectors. In light of the over-representation of the foreign-born in the childcare industry, this paper examines whether college-educated native women respond to immigrant-induced lower cost and potentially more convenient childcare options with increased fertility. An analysis of U.S. Census data between 1980 and 2000 suggests that immigrant inflows are indeed associated with increased likelihoods of having a baby, and responses are strongest among women who are most likely to consider childcare costs when making fertility decisions – namely, married women with a graduate degree. Given that woman also respond to immigrant inflows by working long hours, the paper ends with an analysis of the types of women who have stronger fertility relative to labor supply responses to immigrant-induced changes in childcare options.
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Gabriela Barajas-Gonzalez & Jeanne Brooks-Gunn Hispanic
Journal of Behavioral Sciences, November 2014, Pages 506-521
Abstract:
The influence of perceived family conflict, family support, and peer substance use on adolescent substance use was examined in a community sample of 669 (331 female, 338 male) Latino youth, who were assessed twice over the span of 2½ years. We found greater substance use among U.S.-born Latino youth in comparison to foreign-born Latino youth at both time points. Levels of family conflict were higher, and levels of family support were lower, in families with U.S.-born versus foreign-born adolescents. Results suggest that higher family conflict, but not lower family support, may partially explain higher substance use rates among U.S.-born versus foreign-born Latino adolescents.
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Mexican American Mobility: Early Life Processes and Adult Wealth Ownership
Lisa Keister, Jody Agius Vallejo & Paige Borelli
Social Forces, forthcoming
Abstract:
Mexican Americans are a large group whose mobility patterns can provide important insight into immigrant assimilation processes. It is well known that Mexicans have not attained economic parity with whites, but there is considerable debate about the degree to which Mexican immigrants and their American-born children experience mobility over their lives. We contribute to this literature by studying Mexican American wealth ownership, focusing on three interrelated processes. First, we examine childhood poverty and inheritances to establish financial starting points and to identify the degree to which resources from prior generations affect wealth ownership. Second, we study impediments to mobility in young adulthood to understand how childhood conditions create early adult obstacles to well-being. Third, we study midlife net worth and homeownership to better understand whether childhood and young adult impediments necessarily reduce adult wealth ownership. We find high levels of early life disadvantage among Mexican Americans, but these disadvantages are least pronounced in the second and third generations compared to the first generation. Consistent with prior research, we also find high levels of young adult impediments to mobility for Mexican Americans. However, we find that these early roadblocks do not necessarily translate into lower adult wealth: we show that Mexican Americans have less total wealth than whites but more than African Americans, even when early life impediments are controlled. Our results suggest that Mexican Americans are establishing a solid financial foundation that is likely to lead to long-term class stability.
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Ben Rissing & Emilio Castilla
American Sociological Review, December 2014, Pages 1226-1255
Abstract:
This study contributes to the labor market inequality and organizations literature by investigating the role that government agents play in shaping the employment of immigrants. Using unique data on applications for immigrant permanent labor certification evaluated by U.S. Department of Labor agents, we assess to what extent immigrants of select citizenship groups experience disparities in the labor certification process — one critical stage of the work authorization system leading to the granting of most employment-based green cards. Despite current U.S. laws that forbid discrimination on the basis of nationality, we find that labor certification approvals differ significantly depending on immigrants’ foreign citizenship, even after controlling for key factors. Additionally, because of the U.S. government’s unique process of auditing applications, we are in a rare position to empirically distinguish between statistical and preference-based accounts of labor market discrimination in the labor certification process. In support of the statistical account, we find that certification approvals are equally likely for immigrant workers from the vast majority of citizenship groups when agents review audited applications with detailed employment information. This article concludes by discussing the implications of our results for addressing disparities in the employment of foreign nationals.
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Legal Status and the Criminal Activity of Immigrants
Giovanni Mastrobuoni & Paolo Pinotti
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We exploit exogenous variation in legal status following the January 2007 European Union enlargement to estimate its effect on immigrant crime. We difference out unobserved time-varying factors by i) comparing recidivism rates of immigrants from the "new" and "candidate" member countries; and ii) using arrest data on foreign detainees released upon a mass clemency that occurred in Italy in August 2006. The timing of the two events allows us to setup a difference-in-differences strategy. Legal status leads to a 50 percent reduction in recidivism, and explains one-half to two-thirds of the observed differences in crime rates between legal and illegal immigrants.
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The Openness-Equality Trade-Off in Global Redistribution
Glen Weyl
University of Chicago Working Paper, October 2014
Abstract:
Vickrey (1945)’s veil-of-ignorance argument for redistributive taxation makes no mention of national borders, yet his model of optimal taxation has been almost exclusively applied within sovereign states. Because the majority of welfare-relevant inequality is across rather than within such states, a global perspective on optimal redistribution yields radically different conclusions. Taxes should be significantly higher than typical estimates and most transfers should flow across national borders. If such transfers are infeasible, migration becomes a natural substitute. Yet much migration, by the global middle class to well-off countries, actually exacerbates inequality. Countries very open to inequality-reducing migration are staggeringly unequal internally; a leading case is the Gulf Cooperation Council monarchies. Such examples suggest a philosophically disturbing trade-off between openness to global inequality-reducing migration and internal equality. For example, social prejudices based on national origin or authoritarian regimes that support a caste system could be Pareto-improving.
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State-Based Visas: A Federalist Approach to Reforming U.S. Immigration Policy
Brandon Fuller & Sean Rust
Cato Institute Working Paper, April 2014
Abstract:
Michigan Governor Rick Snyder and Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) recently proposed a regional visa program that would allow immigrants to live and work exclusively in Detroit or other cities in the United States. A regional immigration option through a state-based visa program would create a temporary work permit that would allow participating states to manage the flow and regulate the quantity of temporary migrants who want to live and work within their borders. Ideally, law-abiding visa holders would be eligible for renewal and free to apply for permanent residency during their stay in the United States. Although overseen by the federal government, a state-based visa program would allow state governments to craft a better-functioning work-visa program that is more adaptable to their local economic conditions than the present system run by the federal government — perhaps even supplying lessons for future federal work-visa programs. A state-based visa program would direct immigration to the states that want it without forcing much additional immigration on those that do not. Unlike existing employment-based visas that tie foreign workers to one firm, state-based visa holders would be free to move between employers in the state — leading to thicker, more equitable, and more efficient local labor markets. A state-based visa would increase prosperity by allowing additional migration to portions of the country and economy that demand them. Successful international experiences with regional visas in Australia and Canada provide some valuable policy lessons and hint at the major economic benefits of such a policy in the United States.
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Adrian Shin
University of Michigan Working Paper, November 2014
Abstract:
Are trade and immigration policies substitutes or complements? Using the two-sector model in the Dutch disease literature, the paper argues that the degree of a resource boom changes labor-intensive firms’ preferences over immigration policy and how they respond to trade liberalization. As trade liberalizes, firms in the tradable sector move into the resource industry or into the non-tradable sector during a resource boom, leading to a decline in support for pro-immigration policy. Without such exit options in resource-poor economies, firms seek to remain viable by supporting pro-immigration policy under trade liberalization. Trade and immigration policies are substitutes during a resource boom but are complements otherwise. Rigorous empirical analyses with new data on immigration policy show that changing firm preferences translate directly into policy outcomes. The variation in immigration policy across multiple labor-scarce economies cannot be fully understood without accounting for trade liberalization and resource booms. The paper poses a serious challenge against the conventional wisdom that trade and immigration policies have always been substitutes. An important implication of the paper is that open economies under growing resource booms will restrict immigration even further.
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Hispanic Brokers and Borrowers: The Effect of Language Affinity on the Price of Home Mortgages
Chau Do & Arturo Gonzalez
Regional Science and Urban Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Our study focuses on whether mortgage prices for Hispanic borrowers in areas of limited English fluency depend on the broker’s ethnicity. While we find that Hispanic borrowers in areas where the majority of Hispanics are not fluent in English pay higher prices overall, mortgage prices are lower if the loans are originated by Hispanic brokers relative to non-Hispanic white brokers. This effect is found only in fixed-rate mortgage loans and for low/no-documentation loans. Nevertheless, our results cannot be easily explained by different levels of market competition or borrower characteristics. Our results are consistent with other empirical studies that find language barriers carry additional costs. We caveat, however, our conclusions with our proxy measurements of English and Spanish fluency, which may affect our interpretations and results.
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The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK
Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini
Economic Journal, November 2014, Pages F593–F643
Abstract:
We investigate the fiscal impact of immigration on the UK economy, with a focus on the period since 1995. Our findings indicate that, when considering the resident immigrant population in each year from 1995 to 2011, immigrants from the European Economic Area (EEA) have made a positive fiscal contribution, even during periods when the UK was running budget deficits, while Non-EEA immigrants, not dissimilar to natives, have made a negative contribution. For immigrants that arrived since 2000, contributions have been positive throughout, and particularly so for immigrants from EEA countries. Notable is the strong positive contribution made by immigrants from countries that joined the EU in 2004.
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Kelle Barrick
Journal of Ethnicity in Criminal Justice, Fall 2014, Pages 289-307
Abstract:
Police departments rely on residents to report crime in order to help keep communities safe. Research suggests that attitudes toward the police are influenced by race and ethnicity; however, research on Latinos is underdeveloped. Confidence in the police among Latinos is complicated by local law enforcement's role in immigration enforcement, which potentially discourages cooperation with the police. The current study examines whether Latino confidence in the police varies by experiences with immigration enforcement, level of assimilation, or immigration status. Study findings suggest that Hispanics who have been questioned about their immigration status have less confidence in the police than those who have not. The results provide some evidence that experiences with immigration enforcement may degrade confidence in the police among Latinos.
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Changes in health selection of obesity among Mexican immigrants: A binational examination
Annie Ro & Nancy Fleischer
Social Science & Medicine, December 2014, Pages 114–124
Abstract:
Health selection is often measured by comparing the health of more recent immigrants to the native born of their new host country. However, this comparison fails to take into account two important factors: (1) that changes in the health profile of sending countries may impact the health of immigrants over time, and (2) that the best comparison group for health selection would be people who remain in the country of origin. Obesity represents an important health outcome that may be best understood by taking into account these two factors. Using nationally-representative datasets from Mexico and the US, we examined differences in obesity-related health selection, by gender, in 2000 and 2012. We calculated prevalence ratios from log-binomial models to compare the risk of obesity among recent immigrants to the US to Mexican nationals with varying likelihood of migration, in order to determine changes in health selection over time. Among men in 2000, we found little difference in obesity status between recent immigrants to the US and Mexican non-migrants. However, in 2012, Mexican men who were the least likely to migrate had higher obesity prevalence than recent immigrants, which may reflect emerging health selection. The trends for women, however, indicated differences in obesity status between recent Mexican immigrants and non-migrants at both time points. In both 2000 and 2012, Mexican national women had significantly higher obesity prevalence than recent immigrant women, with the biggest difference between recent immigrants and Mexican women who were least likely to migrate. There was also indication that selection increased with time for women, as the differences between Mexican nationals and recent immigrants to the US grew from 2000 and 2012. Our study is among the first to use a binational dataset to examine the impact of health selectivity, over time, on obesity.
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Immigrants, Labour Market Performance and Social Insurance
Bernt Bratsberg, Oddbjørn Raaum & Knut Røed
Economic Journal, November 2014, Pages F644–F683
Abstract:
Using longitudinal data from the date of arrival, we study long-term labour market and social insurance outcomes for all major immigrant cohorts to Norway since 1970. Immigrants from high-income countries performed as natives, while labour migrants from low-income source countries had declining employment rates and increasing disability programme participation over the lifecycle. Refugees and family migrants assimilated during the initial period upon arrival but labour market convergence halted after a decade and was accompanied by rising social insurance rates. For the children of labour migrants of the 1970s, we uncover evidence of intergenerational assimilation in education, earnings and fertility.
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Maria Teresa Coutinho & Daphne Koinis-Mitchell
Journal of Black Psychology, December 2014, Pages 520-538
Abstract:
School engagement is an important contributor to students’ academic success; however, the available literature on the school engagement of Black immigrants is limited. This study examined the associations between school engagement, perceived ethnic discrimination, ethnic identity, and American identity in a sample of first- and second-generation immigrants of African descent. A total of 125 Cape Verdean high school students (aged 13-19 years) participated in the study. Results indicate that American identity moderated the association between perceived ethnic discrimination and school engagement. American identity buffered the effect of perceived ethnic discrimination on engagement in school. The findings highlight the need to consider Black immigrant students’ identification with American culture in developing interventions aimed at enhancing school engagement.