Heat exchange
Tax Reform and Environmental Policy: Options for Recycling Revenue from a Tax on Carbon Dioxide
Lawrence Goulder & Marc Hafstead
Stanford Working Paper, October 2013
Abstract:
Carbon taxes are a potential revenue source that could play a key role in major tax reform. This paper employs a numerical general equilibrium model of the United States to evaluate alternative tax reductions that could be financed by the revenues from a carbon tax. We consider a carbon tax that begins at $10 per ton in 2013 and increases at 5 percent per year to the year 2040. The net revenue from the tax is substantial, and the GDP and welfare impacts of the tax depend significantly on how this revenue is recycled to the private sector. Under our central case simulations (which do not account for beneficial environmental impacts) over the period 2013–2040, the tax reduces GDP by .56 percent when revenues are returned through lump-sum rebates to households, as compared with .33 and .24 percent when the revenues are recycled through reductions in personal and corporate tax rates, respectively. Introducing tradable exemptions to the carbon tax reduces or eliminates the negative impacts on the profits of the most vulnerable carbon-supplying or carbon-using industries. The GDP and welfare impacts are somewhat larger when such exemptions are introduced.
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Climate Impacts on Economic Growth as Drivers of Uncertainty in the Social Cost of Carbon
Elisabeth Moyer et al.
University of Chicago Working Paper, August 2013
Abstract:
One of the central ways that the costs of global warming are incorporated into U.S. law is in cost-benefit analysis of federal regulations. In 2010, to standardize analyses, an Interagency Working Group (IAWG) established a central estimate of the social cost of carbon (SCC) of $21/tCO2 drawn from three commonly-used models of climate change and the global economy. These models produced a relatively narrow distribution of SCC values, consistent with previous studies. We use one of the IAWG models, DICE, to explore which assumptions produce this apparent robustness. SCC values are constrained by a shared feature of model behavior: though climate damages become large as a fraction of economic output, they do not significantly alter economic trajectories. This persistent growth is inconsistent with the widely held belief that climate change may have strongly detrimental effects to human society. The discrepancy suggests that the models may not capture the full range of possible consequences of climate change. We examine one possibility untested by any previous study, that climate change may directly affect productivity, and find that even a modest impact of this type increases SCC estimates by many orders of magnitude. Our results imply that the SCC is far more uncertain than shown in previous modeling exercises and highly sensitive to assumptions. Understanding the societal impact of climate change requires understanding not only the magnitude of losses at any given time but also how those losses may affect future economic growth.
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The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
Camilo Mora et al.
Nature, 10 October 2013, Pages 183–187
Abstract:
Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.
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Michael Alexander et al.
Journal of Climate, November 2013, Pages 8690–8697
Abstract:
Precipitation changes between 32-yr periods in the late twentieth and mid-twenty-first centuries are investigated using regional climate model simulations provided by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The simulations generally indicate drier summers in the future over most of Colorado and the border regions of the adjoining states. The decrease in precipitation occurs despite an increase in the surface specific humidity. The domain-averaged decrease in daily summer precipitation occurs in all of the models from the 50th through the 95th percentile, but without a clear agreement on the sign of change for the most extreme (top 1% of) events.
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Unprecedented recent summer warmth in Arctic Canada
Gifford Miller et al.
Geophysical Research Letters, forthcoming
Abstract:
Arctic air temperatures have increased in recent decades, along with documented reductions in sea ice, glacier size, and snowcover. However, the extent to which recent Arctic warming has been anomalous with respect to long-term natural climate variability remains uncertain. Here we use 145 radiocarbon dates on rooted tundra plants revealed by receding cold-based ice caps in the Eastern Canadian Arctic to show that 5000 years of regional summertime cooling has been reversed, with average summer temperatures of the last ~100 years now higher than during any century in more than 44,000 years, including peak warmth of the early Holocene when high latitude summer insolation was 9% greater than present. Reconstructed changes in snow line elevation suggest that summers cooled ~2.7 °C over the past 5000 years, approximately twice the response predicted by CMIP5 climate models. Our results indicate that anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases have led to unprecedented regional warmth.
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Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world
Daniel Bebber, Mark Ramotowski & Sarah Gurr
Nature Climate Change, November 2013, Pages 985–988
Abstract:
Global food security is threatened by the emergence and spread of crop pests and pathogens. Spread is facilitated primarily by human transportation, but there is increasing concern that climate change allows establishment in hitherto unsuitable regions. However, interactions between climate change, crops and pests are complex, and the extent to which crop pests and pathogens have altered their latitudinal ranges in response to global warming is largely unknown. Here, we demonstrate an average poleward shift of 2.7±0.8 km yr−1 since 1960, in observations of hundreds of pests and pathogens, but with significant variation in trends among taxonomic groups. Observational bias, where developed countries at high latitudes detect pests earlier than developing countries at low latitudes, would result in an apparent shift towards the Equator. The observed positive latitudinal trends in many taxa support the hypothesis of global warming-driven pest movement.
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Identifying external influences on global precipitation
Kate Marvel & Céline Bonfils
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle (“thermodynamic” changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt (“dynamic” changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities.
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Transboundary pollution and clean technologies
Hassan Benchekroun & Amrita Ray Chaudhuri
Resource and Energy Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Within a non-cooperative transboundary pollution game, we investigate the impact of the adoption of a cleaner technology (i.e., a decrease in the emission to output ratio). We show that countries may respond by increasing their emissions resulting in an increase in the stock of pollution that may be detrimental to welfare. It is when the damage and/or the initial stock of pollution are relatively large and when the natural rate of decay of pollution is relatively small that this rebound effect of clean technologies is strongest. Moreover, these results are shown to arise for a significant and empirically relevant range of parameters for the case of greenhouse gas emissions. Developing clean technologies makes a global agreement over the control of emissions all the more urgent.
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The Fatter the Tail, the Fatter the Climate Agreement
Rob Dellink, Thijs Dekker & Janina Ketterer
Environmental and Resource Economics, October 2013, Pages 277-305
Abstract:
International climate negotiations take place in a setting where uncertainties regarding the impacts of climate change are very large. In this paper, we examine the influence of increasing the probability and impact of large climate change damages, also known as the ‘fat tail’, on the formation of an international mitigation agreement. We systematically vary the shape and location of the distribution of climate change damages using the stochastic version of the applied game-theoretical STACO model. Our aim is to identify how changes to the distributional form affect the stability of coalitions and their performance. We find that fatter upper tails increase the likelihood that more ambitious coalitions are stable as well as the performance of these stable coalitions. Fatter tails thus imply more successful, or ‘fatter’, international climate agreements.
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Pass-through of Emissions Costs in Electricity Markets
Natalia Fabra & Mar Reguant
NBER Working Paper, November 2013
Abstract:
We measure the pass-through of emissions costs to electricity prices and explore its determinants. We perform both reduced-form and structural estimations based on optimal bidding in this market. Using rich micro-level data, we estimate the channels affecting pass-through in a flexible manner, with minimal functional form assumptions. Contrary to many studies in the general pass-through literature, we find that emissions costs are almost fully passed-through to electricity prices. Since electricity is traded through high-frequency auctions for highly inelastic demand, firms have weak incentives to adjust markups after the cost shock. Furthermore, the costs of price adjustment are small.
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Katherine Calvin et al.
Energy Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We explore the implications of potentially counteractive greenhouse gas mitigation responses to carbon prices and the complications that could ensue for limiting radiative forcing in the near-term. Specifically we consider the problem of reproducing the radiative forcing pathway for Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP4.5, which stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 Wm- 2 (650 ppm CO2-e) under a different terrestrial policy assumption. We show that if indirect land-use change emissions are not priced, carbon prices that can replicate this pathway in the near-term may not exist. We further show that additional complexities could emerge as a consequence of the co-production of CO2 and sulfur emissions as byproducts of fossil fuel combustion.
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Planes, ships and taxes: Charging for international aviation and maritime emissions
Michael Keen, Ian Parry & Jon Strand
Economic Policy, October 2013, Pages 701–749
Abstract:
International aviation and maritime transport account for a significant and growing share of global carbon emissions. Yet they are not only excluded from the Kyoto agreement and all current carbon pricing schemes, but do not even pay fuel excises of the type standard for other transport activities. Moreover, each sector benefits from preferential tax treatment – failure to charge VAT on international aviation, and the application of tonnage tax regimes rather than the normal corporate tax in maritime. This paper considers the design of fuel charges in these sectors to address these distortions, and quantifies their impact on emissions, revenue and welfare – showing, amongst other things, that the gain from offsetting the pre-existing tax distortions may be as significant as those from reducing emissions. It shows, too, how compensation schemes can be designed to protect the poorest countries – a key ingredient in the politics of the issue, given the practical need for wide applicability of such charges. The real challenge is to amass the degree of international cooperation required (especially strong for maritime), failure of which to some degree explains their current under-taxation – and, unsurprisingly, to decide who gets the money. Technically, these charges should, if anything, be rather easy to implement.
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Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century
Camilo Mora et al.
PLoS Biology, October 2013
Abstract:
Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
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Energy poverty alleviation and climate change mitigation: Is there a trade off?
Shoibal Chakravarty & Massimo Tavoni
Energy Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Energy poverty alleviation has become an important political issue in the most recent years. Several initiatives and policies have been proposed to deal with poor access to modern sources of energy in many developing countries. Given the large number of people lacking basic energy services, an important question is whether providing universal access to modern energy could significantly increase energy demand and associated CO2 emissions. This paper provides one of the few formal assessments of this problem by means of a simple but robust model of current and future energy consumption. The model allows mapping energy consumption globally for different classes of energy use, quantifying current and future imbalances in the distribution of energy consumption. Our results indicate that an encompassing energy poverty eradication policy to be met by 2030 would increase global final energy consumption by about 7% (rougly 20 EJ). The same quantity of energy could be saved by reducing by 15% energy consumption of individuals with standards above current European levels. The additional energy infrastructure needed to eradicate energy poverty would produce 44-183 GtCO2 over the 21st century and contribute at most 0.13°C of additional warming.
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Cosmic rays, solar activity and the climate
T. Sloan & A.W. Wolfendale
Environmental Research Letters, November 2013
Abstract:
Although it is generally believed that the increase in the mean global surface temperature since industrialization is caused by the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, some people cite solar activity, either directly or through its effect on cosmic rays, as an underestimated contributor to such global warming. In this letter a simplified version of the standard picture of the role of greenhouse gases in causing the global warming since industrialization is described. The conditions necessary for this picture to be wholly or partially wrong are then introduced. Evidence is presented from which the contributions of either cosmic rays or solar activity to this warming is deduced. The contribution is shown to be less than 10% of the warming seen in the twentieth century.
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Simulated Changes in Northwest U.S. Climate in Response to Amazon Deforestation
David Medvigy et al.
Journal of Climate, November 2013, Pages 9115–9136
Abstract:
Numerical models have long predicted that the deforestation of the Amazon would lead to large regional changes in precipitation and temperature, but the extratropical effects of deforestation have been a matter of controversy. This paper investigates the simulated impacts of deforestation on the northwest United States December–February climate. Integrations are carried out using the Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Model (OLAM), here run as a variable-resolution atmospheric GCM, configured with three alternative horizontal grid meshes: 1) 25-km characteristic length scale (CLS) over the United States, 50-km CLS over the Andes and Amazon, and 200-km CLS in the far-field; 2) 50-km CLS over the United States, 50-km CLS over the Andes and Amazon, and 200-km CLS in the far-field; and 3) 200-km CLS globally. In the high-resolution simulations, deforestation causes a redistribution of precipitation within the Amazon, accompanied by vorticity and thermal anomalies. These anomalies set up Rossby waves that propagate into the extratropics and impact western North America. Ultimately, Amazon deforestation results in 10%–20% precipitation reductions for the coastal northwest United States and the Sierra Nevada. Snowpack in the Sierra Nevada experiences declines of up to 50%. However, in the coarse-resolution simulations, this mechanism is not resolved and precipitation is not reduced in the northwest United States. These results highlight the need for adequate model resolution in modeling the impacts of Amazon deforestation. It is concluded that the deforestation of the Amazon can act as a driver of regional climate change in the extratropics, including areas of the western United States that are agriculturally important.
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Bats Killed in Large Numbers at United States Wind Energy Facilities
Mark Andrew Hayes
BioScience, forthcoming
Abstract:
Bats represent a substantial contribution to mammalian species diversity and ecosystem processes in North America, including their role in performing important economic service functions. The development and expansion of wind energy facilities is a key threat to bat populations in North America. Dead bats are being found underneath wind turbines across North America, and bat fatalities have been documented at almost all of the wind facilities at which thorough bat surveys have been conducted.Results suggest that thousands of bats may be killed annually at some wind facilities, and recent estimates suggest that hundreds of thousands of bats may be killed annually in the contiguous United States. I use published bat fatality information to derive estimates of the number of bats killed at wind energy facilities in the contiguous United States in 2012 and conclude that over 600,000 bats may have died as a result of interactions with wind turbines.
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Deep ocean communities impacted by changing climate over 24 y in the abyssal northeast Pacific Ocean
Kenneth Smith et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
The deep ocean, covering a vast expanse of the globe, relies almost exclusively on a food supply originating from primary production in surface waters. With well-documented warming of oceanic surface waters and conflicting reports of increasing and decreasing primary production trends, questions persist about how such changes impact deep ocean communities. A 24-y time-series study of sinking particulate organic carbon (food) supply and its utilization by the benthic community was conducted in the abyssal northeast Pacific (∼4,000-m depth). Here we show that previous findings of food deficits are now punctuated by large episodic surpluses of particulate organic carbon reaching the sea floor, which meet utilization. Changing surface ocean conditions are translated to the deep ocean, where decadal peaks in supply, remineralization, and sequestration of organic carbon have broad implications for global carbon budget projections.
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Attributing mortality from extreme temperatures to climate change in Stockholm, Sweden
Daniel Oudin Åström et al.
Nature Climate Change, forthcoming
Abstract:
A changing climate is increasing the frequency, intensity, duration and spatial extent of heat waves. These changes are associated with increased human mortality during heat extremes. At the other end of the temperature scale, it has been widely speculated that cold-related mortality could decrease in a warmer world. We aim to answer a key question; the extent to which mortality due to temperature extremes in Stockholm, Sweden during 1980–2009 can be attributed to climate change that has occurred since our reference period (1900–1929). Mortality from heat extremes in 1980–2009 was double what would have occurred without climate change. Although temperature shifted towards warmer temperatures in the winter season, cold extremes occurred more frequently, contributing to a small increase of mortality during the winter months. No evidence was found for adaptation over 1980–2009.