Healthy For You
Mass gatherings for political expression had no discernible association with the local course of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA in 2020 and 2021
Eric Feltham et al.
Nature Human Behaviour, forthcoming
Abstract:
Epidemic disease can spread during mass gatherings. We assessed the impact of a type of mass gathering about which comprehensive data were available on the local-area trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic. Here we examined five types of political event in 2020 and 2021: the US primary elections, the US Senate special election in Georgia, the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Donald Trump’s political rallies and the Black Lives Matter protests. Our study period encompassed over 700 such mass gatherings during multiple phases of the pandemic. We used data from the 48 contiguous states, representing 3,108 counties, and we implemented a novel extension of a recently developed non-parametric, generalized difference-in-difference estimator with a (high-quality) matching procedure for panel data to estimate the average effect of the gatherings on local mortality and other outcomes. There were no statistically significant increases in cases, deaths or a measure of epidemic transmissibility (Rt) in a 40-day period following large-scale political activities. We estimated small and statistically non-significant effects, corresponding to an average difference of −0.0567 deaths (95% CI = −0.319, 0.162) and 8.275 cases (95% CI = −1.383, 20.7) on each day for counties that held mass gatherings for political expression compared to matched control counties. In sum, there is no statistical evidence of a material increase in local COVID-19 deaths, cases or transmissibility after mass gatherings for political expression during the first 2 years of the pandemic in the USA. This may relate to the specific manner in which such activities are typically conducted.
Single-Dose Psilocybin Treatment for Major Depressive Disorder: A Randomized Clinical Trial
Charles Raison et al.
Journal of the American Medical Association, 5 September 2023, Pages 843-853
Design, Setting, and Participants: In this phase 2 trial conducted between December 2019 and June 2022 at 11 research sites in the US, participants were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive a single dose of psilocybin vs niacin placebo administered with psychological support. Participants were adults aged 21 to 65 years with a Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition diagnosis of MDD of at least 60 days’ duration and moderate or greater symptom severity. Exclusion criteria included history of psychosis or mania, active substance use disorder, and active suicidal ideation with intent. Participants taking psychotropic agents who otherwise met inclusion/exclusion criteria were eligible following medication taper. Primary and secondary outcomes and adverse events (AEs) were assessed at baseline (conducted within 7 days before dosing) and at 2, 8, 15, 29, and 43 days after dosing.
Interventions: Interventions were a 25-mg dose of synthetic psilocybin or a 100-mg dose of niacin in identical-appearing capsules, each administered with psychological support.
Results: A total of 104 participants (mean [SD] age, 41.1 [11.3] years; 52 [50%] women) were randomized (51 to the psilocybin group and 53 to the niacin group). Psilocybin treatment was associated with significantly reduced MADRS scores compared with niacin from baseline to day 43 (mean difference,−12.3 [95% CI, −17.5 to −7.2]; P <.001) and from baseline to day 8 (mean difference, −12.0 [95% CI, −16.6 to −7.4]; P < .001). Psilocybin treatment was also associated with significantly reduced Sheehan Disability Scale scores compared with niacin (mean difference, −2.31 [95% CI, 3.50-1.11]; P < .001) from baseline to day 43. More participants receiving psilocybin had sustained response (but not remission) than those receiving niacin. There were no serious treatment-emergent AEs; however, psilocybin treatment was associated with a higher rate of overall AEs and a higher rate of severe AEs.
The Effects of Prenatal Exposure to Seasonal Influenza on Life Course Outcomes in the United States
Julia Dennett
Yale Working Paper, July 2023
Abstract:
Seasonal influenza is a common infectious disease that jeopardizes the health of pregnant women and may harm fetal development. I investigate the impacts of in utero exposure to seasonal influenza over the life course using nearly fifty years of flu season data in the U.S. I exploit state and time variation in influenza-related mortality, a proxy for disease severity in the local environment that reflects random mutations in the flu virus. I first find adverse effects on health at birth, including decreased birth weight and increased risk of congenital anomalies. I then show that prenatal exposure to the seasonal flu decreased childhood school attendance, high school educational attainment, and labor force participation, and increased adult disability. A policy simulation based on these estimates suggests substantial past and future returns to expanding influenza vaccination.
Making a Smooth Exit? Menthol Bans and Cigarette Sales in Massachusetts
Ali Goli, Simha Mummalaneni & Pradeep Chintagunta
Marketing Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Public health regulators in the United States are currently advocating for a ban on menthol-flavored cigarettes because they are believed to be more dangerous than traditional nonmenthol cigarettes. However, these bans will have limited benefits if consumers are able to circumvent them. We examine this issue by evaluating the effects of a statewide menthol ban that was instituted by Massachusetts in 2020. An examination of store-level retail sales data from Massachusetts indicates that some demand shifted from menthols to nonmenthols after the ban was instituted, thereby supporting the goals of the ban. However, broadening our analysis to neighboring states shows a sharp increase in menthol sales in areas just outside the Massachusetts border, thereby suggesting that many Massachusetts residents were able to get around the ban by engaging in cross-state shopping for menthol cigarettes. This cross-state shopping is damaging because it reduces the tax revenue for Massachusetts while also not yielding any positive public health benefits among its population. To provide policy makers with guidance regarding the benefits of alternative policies, we develop and estimate a structural model that accounts for heterogeneity in (i) prices across states, (ii) distances from state borders, and (iii) menthol shares across Massachusetts. We show that a statewide menthol tax might be preferable over either a statewide menthol ban or a national ban because it yields sizable reductions in smoking activity while also generating up to 14% in additional tax revenue.
Does Removing Menthol Cigarettes in Convenience Stores Reduce Susceptibility to Cigarette Smoking? An Experimental Investigation in Young People
William Shadel et al.
Drug and Alcohol Dependence, October 2023
Methods: This experiment took place in the RAND StoreLab (RSL), a life-sized research convenience store. A three-group, between-subjects design was used. Study conditions differed in the mix of flavored tobacco products the RSL displayed: 1) All tobacco-, sweet-, and menthol-flavors displayed; 2) only tobacco- and menthol-flavors displayed; and 3) only tobacco-flavors displayed. Participants were randomly assigned to shop in the RSL under one of these conditions and after shopping, completed measures of their susceptibility to cigarette smoking, one measure for menthol cigarettes and one for unflavored cigarettes (scores on each susceptibility measure was dichotomized: 0 = not susceptible; 1 = susceptible).
Results: Multivariable logistic regression assessed the main effects of condition on susceptibility to smoking menthol and unflavored cigarettes. There was no condition effect on susceptibility to smoking unflavored cigarettes. However, removing menthol-flavored products significantly increased participants’ susceptibility to smoking menthol cigarettes compared to when all flavored products were available (OR = 3.66, 95% CI [1.33, 10.03]). This significant effect was only found among young people with some pre-existing risk of cigarette smoking (OR = 5.92, 95% CI [1.81, 19.39]).
No evidence that Chinese playtime mandates reduced heavy gaming in one segment of the video games industry
David Zendle et al.
Nature Human Behaviour, forthcoming
Abstract:
Governments around the world are considering regulatory measures to reduce young people’s time spent on digital devices, particularly video games. This raises the question of whether proposed regulatory measures would be effective. Since the early 2000s, the Chinese government has been enacting regulations to directly restrict young people’s playtime. In November 2019, it limited players aged under 18 to 1.5 hours of daily playtime and 3 hours on public holidays. Using telemetry data on over seven billion hours of playtime provided by a stakeholder from the video games industry, we found no credible evidence for overall reduction in the prevalence of heavy playtime following the implementation of regulations: individual accounts became 1.14 times more likely to play heavily in any given week (95% confidence interval 1.139–1.141). This falls below our preregistered smallest effect size of interest (2.0) and thus is not interpreted as a practically meaningful increase. Results remain robust across a variety of sensitivity analyses, including an analysis of more recent (2021) adjustments to playtime regulation. This casts doubt on the effectiveness of such state-controlled playtime mandates.
From Addiction to Aggression: The Spillover Effects of Opioid Policies on Intimate Partner Violence
Dhaval Dave et al.
NBER Working Paper, August 2023
Abstract:
Intimate partner violence (IPV) is the most common form of violence experienced by women, and imposes adverse health consequences for victims and their children. The annual economic burden of IPV amounts to over $4.1 trillion, a substantial share of which is borne by the public sector. Despite documented associations pointing to partner violence and substance abuse being intertwined public health issues, we know very little about this connection when it comes to opioids. We address this knowledge gap, and provide the first study of the downstream effects of a key supply-side intervention – the abuse-deterrent reformulation of one of the most widely diverted opioids, OxyContin – on intimate partner violence. Capitalizing on administrative data on reported incidents by female victims to law enforcement combined with a quasi-experimental research design, we find robust evidence that the reformulation led to a significant decline in IPV exposure by females. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that sub-populations (non-Hispanic Whites; younger adults) and localities (lower-educated; high poverty) which experienced higher rates of opioid prescribing and misuse at baseline, accrued the largest benefits in terms of lower IPV rates. The overall decline in IPV, however, masks a notable uptick in heroin-involved IPV, underscoring the importance of identifying populations at a higher risk of substitution to illicit opioids post-reformulation and mitigating this risk with evidence-based policies.
Overnight olfactory enrichment using an odorant diffuser improves memory and modifies the uncinate fasciculus in older adults
Cynthia Woo et al.
Frontiers in Neuroscience, July 2023
Methods: Male and female older adults (N = 43), age 60–85, were enrolled in the study and randomly assigned to an Olfactory Enriched or Control group. Individuals in the enriched group were exposed to 7 different odorants a week, one per night, for 2 h, using an odorant diffuser. Individuals in the control group had the same experience with de minimis amounts of odorant. Neuropsychological assessments and fMRI scans were administered at the beginning of the study and after 6 months.
Results: A statistically significant 226% improvement was observed in the enriched group compared to the control group on the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test and improved functioning was observed in the left uncinate fasciculus, as assessed by mean diffusivity.