Hawks and Doves
Demography, Education, and Democracy: Global Trends and the Case of Iran
Wolfgang Lutz, Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi
Population and Development Review, June 2010, Pages 253-281
Abstract:
Reconstructions and projections of populations by age, sex, and educational attainment for 120 countries since 1970 are used to assess the global relationship between improvements in human capital and democracy. Democracy is measured by the Freedom House indicator of political rights. Similar to an earlier study on the effects of improving educational attainment on economic growth, the greater age detail of this new dataset resolves earlier ambiguities about the effect of improving education as assessed using a global set of national time series. The results show consistently strong effects of improving overall levels of educational attainment, of a narrowing gender gap in education, and of fertility declines and the subsequent changes in age structure on improvements in the democracy indicator. This global relationship is then applied to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Over the past two decades Iran has experienced the world's most rapid fertility decline associated with massive increases in female education. The results show that based on the experience of 120 countries since 1970, Iran has a high chance of significant movement toward more democracy over the following two decades.
-----------------------
Nation states vs. united empire: Effects of political competition on economic growth
Angus Chu
Public Choice, October 2010, Pages 181-195
Abstract:
Is political fragmentation, i.e., nation states, more favorable to economic growth than political unification, i.e., a united empire? This study develops an endogenous-growth model to analyze the growth effects of fragmentation versus unification. Under unification, the economy is vulnerable to excessive Leviathan taxation and possibly subject to the costs of unifying heterogeneous populations. Under fragmentation, the competing rulers are constrained in taxation but spend excessively on military defense. If capital mobility is above (below) a threshold, then fragmentation (unification) would favor growth, and this threshold is increasing in the degree of defense competition and decreasing in the costs of heterogeneity.
-----------------------
Stereotyped images of terrorists as predictors of fear of future terrorist attacks
Magorzata Kossowska, Agnieszka Golec de Zavala & Tomasz Kubik
Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression, September 2010, Pages 179-197
Abstract:
Three studies examine how al Qaeda terrorists are perceived by Polish participants and how these perceptions are related to emotional reactions to terrorism and support for counter-terrorism measures, such as the installation of the American National Missile Defence (NMD) system in Poland. In study 1 we combine qualitative and quantitative approach to test the terrorist perception and identify four images of al Qaeda terrorists: psychopathic criminals, strategists, ideologues and desperate combatants. The results of study 2 indicate that two images attributing irrationality to al Qaeda terrorists and unpredictability to their actions (psychopathic criminals and ideologues) are related to high perceived risk of future terrorist attacks, fear of terrorism and a tendency to catastrophize terrorism. Results of study 3 show that these two images are related to opposition towards NMD in Poland. Fear of terrorism mediates this relationship. The image of terrorists as rational strategists is not related to fear of terrorism and is related to positive attitudes towards installation of the NMD in Poland.
-----------------------
The Enigma of Lone Wolf Terrorism: An Assessment
Ramn Spaaij
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, September 2010, Pages 854-870
Abstract:
Lone wolf terrorism remains an ambiguous and enigmatic phenomenon. The boundaries of lone wolf terrorism are fuzzy and arbitrary. This article aims to define and analyze the main features and patterns of lone wolf terrorism in fifteen countries. Lone wolf terrorism is shown to be more prevalent in the United States than in the other countries under study. The cross-national analysis suggests that in the United States lone wolf terrorism has increased markedly during the past three decades; a similar increase does not appear to have occurred in the other countries under study. The numbers of casualties resulting from lone wolf terrorism have been relatively limited, and there is no evidence that the lethality of lone wolf terrorism is on the increase. The rates of psychological disturbance and social ineptitude are found to be relatively high among lone wolf terrorists. Lone wolf terrorists tend to create their own ideologies that combine personal frustrations and aversion with broader political, social, or religious aims. In this process, many lone wolf terrorists draw on the communities of belief and ideologies of validation generated and transmitted by extremist movements.
-----------------------
Nir Arielli
Middle Eastern Studies, May 2010, Pages 331-347
Abstract:
The air raids against civilian and military targets during the Second World War have been a relatively unexplored chapter in Palestine's tumultuous history. This article examines the circumstances that led the air forces of Italy, Germany and Vichy France to launch attacks against Palestine. It surveys the damage these raids caused and assesses their effect on the country's population. The article raises three central arguments: although the attacks caused considerable damage in Haifa and in Tel Aviv, they failed to alter the course of the war in the Middle East; despite the hostility between Arabs and Jews before and after the war, the period of the air raids saw displays of solidarity between the two communities; and the experiences of the Second World War, including the air raids, played a part in the state-building process of the Yishuv (Jewish community).
-----------------------
Determinants of Coup d'État Events 1970-90: The Role of Property Rights Protection
Rollin Tusalem
International Political Science Review, June 2010, Pages 346-365
Abstract:
Existing research on the political-economic determinants of coup d'état events has not explored the role of property rights protection in decreasing the likelihood of their global and regional incidence. Case studies confirm that the military institutions of the developing world began to represent elite class values that reacted adversely to state attempts at the redistribution of wealth and the expropriation of property after the 1970s. Thus far, no empirical analysis has tested the assertions made by these cases. Using Binary Times Series Cross-Section models from the period 1970-90, this article investigates the impact of the Contract Intensive Money ratio and International Country Risk Guide measures, which are tapped as property rights proxy variables, on decreasing the likelihood of a coup. The findings show that developing states that secure their property rights (as a function of these measures) are more likely to experience a decreased likelihood of a coup. The effect of property rights protection on the decreased likelihood of a coup shows statistical significance in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The results hold true even when the global model is subjected to a sensitivity analysis where lagged coup events over a six-year period are included as a control variable.
-----------------------
Stephen Farnsworth, Stuart Soroka & Lori Young
International Journal of Press/Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Content analysis of U.S. and Canadian television news from 2004 to 2006 reveals considerable similarities in the volume of news coverage of President George W. Bush and the Iraq War on both sides of the border. Indeed, these data suggest the possibility of an international two-step news flow, where changes in the volume of coverage on NBC frequently were reflected in the news coverage on CBC and CTV during the following days. It is suggested here that this may be attributable to the limitations faced by international reporters, resulting in a "two-step flow" that should be relevant not just for Canadian reporters in the United States, but also for many international reporters elsewhere.
-----------------------
Ted Aranki & Yousef Daoud
Journal of Population Economics, September 2010, Pages 1275-1300
Abstract:
This paper investigates the effects of foreign workers on labor market outcomes for Palestinian workers in the Israeli labor market. The paper utilizes a micro-dataset on the Palestinian labor force combined with time-series data on foreign workers in Israel. The data covers the period 1999-2003, a period in which Israel enforced a strict closure on labor (and goods) movement, particularly in 2001 and 2002. The evidence suggests that foreign workers in Israel do not affect Palestinian employment; however, an increase in the number of foreign workers in Israel tends to reduce Israeli wages paid to Palestinian workers from the Gaza Strip. The Israeli closure policy appears to be the main cause for the substantial reduction in long-run Palestinian employment levels in Israel, not the presence of foreign workers.
-----------------------
Jewish-Arab Wage Gap: What Are the Causes?
Muhammad Asali
Defence and Peace Economics, August 2010, Pages 367-380
Abstract:
Using a panel of cross sections, this study measures wage differentials between Israeli-Arab and Jewish workers between 1991 and 2003. The wage gap is then decomposed into components corresponding to human capital, occupational segregation, selectivity, and a residual (unexplained gap). The study shows large fluctuations in the wage gap, almost doubling in the last decade, reaching 75% in 1999. Because sudden changes in the underlying characteristics of the populations are not likely, a large part of the level and changes in the wage gap were captured by the residual - possibly one of the implications of the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
-----------------------
Yossi Katz
Middle Eastern Studies, July 2010, Pages 543-554
Abstract:
This article deals with the contribution of Zionists throughout the world to the building of the National Home in Palestine, including the Zionist communities in the Far East - India and China. It examines the vast Zionist activity taking place in China, with the Zionists of China making a significant contribution, especially considering the small size of its Jewish community. In contrast to popular belief, in the period discussed in our research China was not distant and disconnected from the Zionist centres in Palestine and Europe. Written Zionist propaganda and Zionist representatives did not overlook China. The notable extent of donations and investments made by the Jews of China benefiting the National Home through the Jewish Colonial Trust, the Jewish National Fund, and the Foundation Fund is the result of two main factors: firstly, the economic strength of the community, especially the very wealthy Iraqi Jews, and secondly, the Zionist passion of the Chinese Jews. The Kadoorie family, whose donations assisted in purchasing land for the Hebrew University, the building of Ha'emek Hospital, and the establishment of the Galilee agricultural school, played a pivotal role. There is no doubt that Eliezer Kadoorie serving as head of the Zionist Organization in China as well as some of its institutions helped widen the circle of donors among upper and middle class Zionists in China, and shared in their prominent part in creating the Jewish National Home in Palestine.
-----------------------
"Prostitutes" and "Defectors": Gendered Migration, Nationalism, and the Ukrainian State
Cinzia Solari
University of California Working Paper, August 2010
Abstract:
Sending states such as Mexico and the Philippines increasingly view their emigrants as "national heroes" and the remittances they send back as part of the sending state's economic development strategy. While Ukraine is economically comparable to these states, the Ukrainian state stigmatizes its emigrants to Italy as "prostitutes" and those to California as "defectors" making little effort to reach out to its citizens abroad. Why? I argue the answer lies in understanding Ukraine as a disarticulated nation-state and its nation-building process in a post-Soviet context. The Ukrainian state, in order to fulfill its First World aspirations of joining Europe and distancing itself from all things Soviet and Russian, produces these patterns of emigration which provide the basis of Ukraine's new nation-building process while it simultaneously signals "Third World" rather than "First World" status in the international arena.
-----------------------
Determinants of Constitutional Change: Why Do Countries Change Their Form of Government?
Bernd Hayo & Stefan Voigt
Journal of Comparative Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
A country's form of government has important economic and political consequences, but the determinants that lead countries to choose either parliamentary or presidential systems are largely unexplored. This paper studies this choice by analyzing the factors that make countries switch from parliamentary to presidential systems (or vice versa). The analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we identify the survival probability of the existing form of government (drawing on a proportional hazard model). In our model, which is based on 169 countries, we find that geographical factors and former colonial status are important determinants of survival probability. Also, presidential systems are, ceteris paribus, more likely to survive than parliamentary ones. Second, given that a change has taken place, we identify the underlying reasons based on panel data logit models. We find that domestic political factors are more important than economic ones. The most important factors relate to intermediate internal armed conflict, sectarian political participation, degree of democratization, and party competition, as well as the extent to which knowledge resources are distributed among the members of society.