Getting Work
The Evolution of Local Labor Markets After Recessions
Brad Hershbein & Bryan Stuart
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper studies how U.S. local labor markets respond to employment losses that occur during recessions. Following recessions from 1973 through 2009, we find that areas that lose more jobs during the recession experience persistent relative declines in employment and population. Most importantly, these local labor markets also experience persistent decreases in the employment-population ratio, earnings per capita, and earnings per worker. Our results imply that limited population responses result in longer-lasting consequences for local labor markets than previously thought, and that recessions are followed by persistent reallocation of employment across space.
The Mismeasurement of Work Time: Implications for Wage Discrimination and Inequality
George Borjas & Daniel Hamermesh
NBER Working Paper, January 2024
Abstract:
Comparing measures of work time in the recall CPS-ASEC data with contemporaneous measures reveals many logical inconsistencies and probable errors. About 8 percent of ASEC respondents report weeks worked last year that contradict their current work histories in the Basic monthly interviews; the error rate is over 50 percent among workers who move in and out of the workforce. Over 20 percent give contradictory information about whether they usually work a full-time weekly schedule. Part of the inconsistency arises because an increasing fraction of ASEC respondents (over 20 percent by 2018) consists of people whose record was fully imputed. The levels and trends of the errors differ by gender and race, and they affect measured wage differentials between 1978 to 2018. Adjusting for the errors and imputations, gender wage gaps among all workers narrowed by 4 log points more than is commonly reported, and residual wage inequality decreased by 6 log points more. In a very carefully defined sample of full-time year-round workers, gender and racial wage differentials narrowed slightly less than previously estimated using ASEC data, but much more than indicated by commonly used estimates from CPS Outgoing Rotation Groups.
The World’s Rust Belts: The Heterogeneous Effects of Deindustrialization on 1,993 Cities in Six Countries
Luisa Gagliardi, Enrico Moretti & Michel Serafinelli
NBER Working Paper, December 2023
Abstract:
We investigate the employment consequences of deindustrialization for 1,993 cities in France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, and the United States. In all six countries we find a strong negative relationship between a city's share of manufacturing employment in the year of its country’s manufacturing peak and the subsequent change in total employment, reflecting the fact that cities where manufacturing was initially more important experienced larger negative labor demand shocks. But in a significant number of cases, total employment fully recovered and even exceeded initial levels, despite the loss of manufacturing jobs. Overall, 34% of former manufacturing hubs -- defined as cities with an initial manufacturing employment share in the top tercile -- experienced employment growth faster than their country's mean, suggesting that a surprisingly large number of cities was able to adapt to the negative shock caused by deindustrialization. The U.S. has the lowest share, indicating that the U.S. Rust Belt communities have fared relatively worse compared to their peers in the other countries. We then seek to understand why some former manufacturing hubs recovered while others didn't. We find that deindustrialization had different effects on local employment depending on the initial share of college-educated workers in the labor force. While in the two decades before the manufacturing peak, cities with a high college share experienced a rate of employment growth similar to those with a low college share, in the decades after the manufacturing peak, the employment trends diverged: cities with a high college share experienced significantly faster employment growth. The divergence grows over time at an accelerating rate. Using an instrumental variable based on the driving distance to historical colleges and universities, we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in local college share results in a rate of employment growth per decade that is 9.1 percentage points higher. This effect is in part explained by faster growth in human capital-intensive services, which more than offsets the loss of manufacturing jobs.
Labor Market Tightness and Union Activity
Chantal Pezold, Simon Jäger & Patrick Nüss
NBER Working Paper, December 2023
Abstract:
We study how labor market conditions affect unionization decisions. Tight labor markets might spur unionization, e.g., by reducing the threat of unemployment after management opposition or employer retaliation in response to a unionization attempt. Tightness might also weaken unionization by providing attractive outside alternatives to engaging in costly unionization. Drawing on a large-scale, representative survey experiment among U.S. workers, we show that an increase in worker beliefs about labor market tightness moderately raises support for union activity. Effect sizes are small as they imply that moving from trough to peak of the business cycle increases workers’ probability of voting for a union by one percentage point. To study equilibrium effects, we draw on three quasi-experimental research designs using data from across U.S. states and counties over several decades. We find no systematic effect of changes in aggregate labor market tightness on union membership, union elections, and strikes. Overall, our results challenge the notion that labor market tightness significantly drives U.S. unionization.
Innovation Booms, Easy Financing, and Human Capital Accumulation
Johan Hombert & Adrien Matray
NBER Working Paper, December 2023
Abstract:
Innovation booms are often fueled by easy financing that allows new technology firms to pay high wages that attracts skilled labor. Using the late 1990s Information and Communication Technology (ICT) boom as a laboratory, we show that skilled labor joining this new sector experienced sizeable long-term earnings losses. We show these earnings patterns are explained by faster skill obsolescence rather than either worker selection or the overall bust in the ICT sector. During the boom, financing flowed more to firms whose workers would experience the largest productivity declines, amplifying the negative effect of labor reallocation on aggregate human capital accumulation.
Quality hours: Measuring labor input
Christine Braun, Finn Kydland & Peter Rupert
Labour Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We construct an aggregate labor input series from 1979 to 2019 to adjust for changes in the experience and education levels of the workforce using the Current Population Survey’s Outgoing Rotation Groups. We compare the cyclical behavior of labor input to aggregate hours -- finding that labor input is about 9% less volatile over the business cycle and that the quality of the workforce is countercyclical. We show that the decrease in labor productivity beginning in 2004, the “productivity slowdown,” is understated by 12 percentage points when using aggregate hours instead of labor input to calculate productivity, as compared to the 1990-2003 growth rate. Moreover, 39% of the average quarterly growth rate of labor productivity can be attributed to increases in education and experience since 2004.
The Labor Market Effects of Legal Restrictions on Worker Mobility
Matthew Johnson, Kurt Lavetti & Michael Lipsitz
NBER Working Paper, December 2023
Abstract:
We analyze how the legal enforceability of noncompete agreements (NCAs) affects labor markets. Using newly-constructed panel data, we find that higher NCA enforceability diminishes workers’ earnings and job mobility, with larger effects among workers most likely to sign NCAs. These effects are far-reaching: changes in enforceability impose externalities on workers across state borders, suggesting that enforceability broadly affects labor market dynamism. We provide evidence that NCA enforceability primarily affects wages through its effect on workers' outside options; moreover, workers facing high enforceability are unable to leverage tight labor markets to increase earnings. We motivate these findings by embedding NCA enforceability in a search model with bargaining. Finally, higher NCA enforceability exacerbates gender and racial earnings gaps.
Dynamic Monopsony with Large Firms and Noncompetes
Axel Gottfries & Gregor Jarosch
NBER Working Paper, December 2023
Abstract:
How do noncompete agreements between workers and firms affect wages and employment in equilibrium? We build a tractable framework of wage posting with on-the-job search and large employers that provides a natural laboratory to assess anti-competitive practices in the labor market. We characterize the impact of market structure and show that noncompetes can sharply suppress wages. We validate the quantitative model with empirical evidence on the impact of mergers and noncompetes on employment and wages. Banning noncompetes in the US would raise wages by 4%. Wage gains are large when demand is inelastic, training costs are high, and when noncompetes are widespread.
Online Job Posts Contain Very Little Wage Information
Honey Batra, Amanda Michaud & Simon Mongey
NBER Working Paper, December 2023
Abstract:
We present six facts that characterize the little wage information contained in the universe of online job posts in the U.S. First, wage information is rare: only 14% of posts contain any wage information and the minority of these (6%) have a point wage. The majority (8%) feature a range of wages that are on average wide, spanning 28% of the midpoint (e.g. $21-28/hr or $32,000$42,000/yr). Second, information varies systematically along the occupation-wage gradient. Third, posted wages are 40% higher than wages in BLS data in low-wage occupations and 20% lower than BLS data in high-wage occupations. Fourth, among the wages that are posted, high wage firms are more opaque, with more and wider ranges. Fifth, there is zero correlation between wage information and local labor market tightness. Sixth, of the top 20 posting private firms, none have any wage information in more than 2% of their posts. Our findings caution against treating wage data from job postings as a stand-in for administrative data. We provide an example of bias in econometric inference that worsens as wage information falls.
Nonregular Employment and Payout Policy: Evidence from the Massachusetts Independent Contractor Law
JiHoon Hwang & Kathleen Kahle
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Compared with regular employees, independent contractors (ICs) offer labor flexibility and cost savings to their employers. Using a difference-in-differences design around the 2004 Massachusetts law that discourages IC usage, we find that this exogenous decrease in IC usage makes treated firms’ earnings more sensitive to changes in sales, increases labor-related expenses, and reduces profitability. Firms subsequently reduce share repurchases. The decrease is more pronounced for firms with high operating leverage and financial constraints. Our results are robust to entropy balancing. We conclude that IC usage affects firms’ operating leverage and profitability, which in turn, influence payout policy.
Apprenticeship Program Performance and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Case Study of Nevada's Construction Industry
Jeffrey Waddoups & Kevin Duncan
Labor Studies Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
Apprenticeship training in construction is an important source of human capital investment for workers, employers, and society. We address the extent to which macroeconomic fluctuations such as building booms and recessions affect apprenticeship completion rates—an important indicator of program performance. Using data from the U.S. Department of Labor, we find that one of the most important determinants of performance is a measure of macroeconomic activity during the apprenticeship period. Apprentices that register into a growing economy, as indicated by falling unemployment rates, are significantly more likely to complete their programs than those who register into a recessionary economy. We also find that apprentices in programs jointly sponsored by trade unions and signatory contractors have higher completion rates and are less affected by conditions in the macroeconomy.
Time-Varying Risk Premia, Labor Market Dynamics, and Income Risk
Maarten Meeuwis et al.
NBER Working Paper, December 2023
Abstract:
We show that time variation in risk premia leads to time-varying idiosyncratic income risk for workers. Using US administrative data on worker earnings, we show that increases in risk premia lead to lower earnings for low-wage workers; these declines are primarily driven by job separations. By contrast, productivity shocks affect the earnings mainly of highly paid workers. We build an equilibrium model of labor market search that quantitatively replicates these facts. The model generates endogenous time-varying income risk in response to changes in risk premia and matches several stylized features of the data regarding unemployment and income risk over the business cycle.