Getting Well
The effect of international travel on the spread of COVID-19 in the United States
Jeffrey Prince & Daniel Simon
Southern Economic Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
We examine the relationship between incoming international passengers and COVID-19 cases and deaths during the pandemic's initial wave in the United States. We find passengers from Milan, Italy, the location of an early outbreak, were an important source of exposure, increasing the early spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Cities that received more passengers from Milan during the first quarter of 2020 experienced more COVID-19 cases during March 2020 than cities receiving fewer passengers from Milan. Concurrently, cities that received more passengers from China or Rome (the latter not experiencing a major outbreak until later in 2020), did not experience increased cases. These results show passengers from at least one foreign epicenter were an important source of exposure that increased COVID-19 spread in the United States. Given Milan was a secondary hotspot, our results also illustrate the importance of a holistic view of international pandemic hotspots when considering corresponding travel policy.
Opioids and the labor market
Dionissi Aliprantis, Kyle Fee & Mark Schweitzer
Labour Economics, December 2023
Abstract:
This paper quantifies the relationship between local opioid prescription rates and labor market outcomes in the United States between 2006 and 2016. To understand this relationship at the national level, we assemble a data set that allows us both to include rural areas and to estimate the relationship at a disaggregated level. We control for geographic variation in both short-term and long-term economic conditions. We demonstrate that the level of geographic information included in the estimation qualitatively alters the estimated results. We focus on measuring the impact of opioid prescriptions on labor markets, so we evaluate the robustness of our estimates to an alternative causal path, unobserved selection, and an instrumental variable from the literature. In our baseline specification, a 10 percent higher local prescription rate is associated with a lower prime-age labor force participation rate of 0.53 percentage points for men and 0.10 percentage points for women.
Mental health effects of COVID-19 lockdowns: A Twitter-based analysis
Sara Colella et al.
Economics & Human Biology, forthcoming
Abstract:
We use a distinctive methodology that leverages a fixed population of Twitter users located in France to gauge the mental health effects of repeated lockdown orders. To do so, we derive from our population a mental health indicator that measures the frequency of words expressing anger, anxiety and sadness. Our indicator did not reveal a statistically significant mental health response during the first lockdown, while the second lockdown triggered a sharp and persistent deterioration in all three emotions. Our estimates also show a more severe deterioration in mental health among women and younger users during the second lockdown. These results suggest that successive stay-at-home orders significantly worsen mental health across a large segment of the population. We also show that individuals who are closer to their social network were partially protected by this network during the first lockdown, but were no longer protected during the second, demonstrating the gravity of successive lockdowns for mental health.
One-Year Association of Drug Possession Law Change With Fatal Drug Overdose in Oregon and Washington
Spruha Joshi et al.
JAMA Psychiatry, forthcoming
Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a synthetic control method approach to examine whether there were changes in drug possession laws and fatal drug overdose rates in Oregon and Washington in the postpolicy period (February 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022, in Oregon and March 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022, in Washington). A counterfactual comparison group (synthetic controls) was created for Oregon and Washington, using 48 states and the District of Columbia, that did not implement similar policies during the study period (January 1, 2018, to March 31, 2022). For 2018-2021, final multiple cause-of-death data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) were used. For 2022, provisional NVSS data were used. Drug overdose deaths were identified using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision underlying cause-of-death codes X40-X44, X60-X64, X85, and Y10-Y14.
Results: Following the implementation of Measure 110, absolute monthly rate differences between Oregon and its synthetic control were not statistically significant (probability = 0.26). The average rate difference post Measure 110 was 0.268 fatal drug overdoses per 100 000 state population. Following the implementation of the policy change in Washington, the absolute monthly rate differences between Washington and synthetic Washington were not statistically significant (probability = 0.06). The average rate difference post Blake was 0.112 fatal drug overdoses per 100 000 state population.
Marijuana legalization and traffic fatalities revisited
Weiwei Chen & Michael French
Southern Economic Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
The legal landscape for marijuana in the United States has changed dramatically over the last three decades. While several studies have examined the relationship between marijuana legalization and traffic fatalities, some of the research is becoming outdated and existing evidence remains mixed. Our research revisits the topic with two updates. First, our study includes states that legalized marijuana more recently and provides updated evidence on the effects of marijuana legalization. Second, considering recent discussions about the limitations of difference-in-differences designs, we employ alternative estimators that are robust to heterogeneous and dynamic treatment effects. Overall, our alternative estimators suggest either a smaller reduction (i.e., 3.9% drop in the overall fatality rate) or no change in traffic fatalities associated with legalizing marijuana for medical use, compared to the two-way fixed-effect estimator. We find no significant impact on traffic fatalities associated with legalizing marijuana for recreational use.
Recreational Cannabis Legalization and Adolescent Sexual Risk Behaviors
Natalie Grafft et al.
Youth & Society, forthcoming
Abstract:
Little is known about the implications of cannabis legalization on adolescent health behaviors. This study sought to examine the relationship between recreational cannabis legalization and adolescent sexual risk behaviors. Data on 371,487 respondents who have ever had sexual intercourse from 41 states in the 2005 to 2019 Youth Risk Behavior Survey was linked with data on state-level cannabis policies. Difference-in-differences logistic regression models were conducted. Recreational cannabis legalization was associated with a reduced likelihood of respondents having 2+ sexual partners (adjusted OR [aOR] 0.63, 95% CI [0.47, 0.84]), but had no association with condom use (aOR 0.94, 95% CI [0.80, 1.11]). Changing social norms around cannabis is a potential pathway linking cannabis legalization to a reduction in sexual risk behaviors.
Do Tobacco 21 Laws Work?
Benjamin Hansen et al.
Journal of Health Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Tobacco 21 (T-21) laws raise the minimum legal purchasing age for all tobacco products to 21. This study is the first to examine the impact of statewide T21 laws on teenage and young adult cigarette and electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use. Using survey data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that statewide adoption of a T-21 law is associated with a 2-to-4 percentage-point decline in smoking participation among 18-to-20-year-olds. Supplemental analyses using the State Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (YRBS) show that frequent e-cigarette use among 18-year-olds also fell following the adoption of T21 laws, though this effect was partially because teens turned to informal social sources to obtain e-cigarettes (i.e., borrowing or bumming). Finally, we find that T-21 laws generate spillover effects, including (2) reductions in cigarette use among 16-to-17-year-olds, a group that relies heavily on informal social markets in high school, and (2) reductions in marijuana use and days of alcohol use among some teens.
The provisioned primate: Patterns of obesity across lemurs, monkeys, apes and humans
Herman Pontzer
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society: Biological Sciences, 23 October 2023
Abstract:
Non-human primates are potentially informative but underutilized species for investigating obesity. I examined patterns of obesity across the Primate order, calculating the ratio of body mass in captivity to that in the wild. This index, relative body mass, for n = 40 non-human primates (mean ± s.d.: females: 1.28 ± 0.30, range 0.67–1.78, males: 1.24 ± 0.28, range 0.70–1.97) overlapped with a reference value for humans (women: 1.52, men: 1.44). Among non-human primates, relative body mass was unrelated to dietary niche, and was marginally greater among female cohorts of terrestrial species. Males and females had similar relative body masses, but species with greater sexual size dimorphism (male/female mass) in wild populations had comparatively larger female body mass in captivity. Provisioned populations in wild and free-ranging settings had similar relative body mass to those in research facilities and zoos. Compared to the wild, captive diets are unlikely to be low in protein or fat, or high in carbohydrate, suggesting these macronutrients are not driving overeating in captive populations. Several primate species, including chimpanzees, a sister-species to humans, had relative body masses similar to humans. Humans are not unique in the propensity to overweight and obesity.
The Mortality Effects of Winter Heating Prices
Janjala Chirakijja, Seema Jayachandran & Pinchuan Ong
Economic Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper examines how the price of home heating affects mortality in the US. Exposure to cold is one reason that mortality peaks in winter, and a higher heating price increases exposure to cold by reducing heating use. Our empirical approach combines spatial variation in the energy source used for home heating and temporal variation in the national prices of natural gas and electricity. We find that a lower heating price reduces winter mortality, driven mostly by cardiovascular and respiratory causes. Our estimates imply that the 42% drop in the natural gas price in the late 2000s, mostly driven by the shale gas boom, averted 12,500 deaths per year in the US. The effect appears to be especially large in high-poverty communities.
Global patterns and correlates in the emergence of antimicrobial resistance in humans
Emma Mendelsohn et al.
Proceedings of the Royal Society: Biological Sciences, 27 September 2023
Abstract:
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a critical global health threat, and drivers of the emergence of novel strains of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in humans are poorly understood at the global scale. We examined correlates of AMR emergence in humans using global data on the origins of novel strains of AMR bacteria from 2006 to 2017, human and livestock antibiotic use, country economic activity and reporting bias indicators. We found that AMR emergence is positively correlated with antibiotic consumption in humans. However, the relationship between AMR emergence and antibiotic consumption in livestock is modified by gross domestic product (GDP), with only higher GDP countries showing a slight positive association, a finding that differs from previous studies on the drivers of AMR prevalence. We also found that human travel may play a role in AMR emergence, likely driving the spread of novel AMR strains into countries where they are subsequently detected for the first time. Finally, we used our model to generate a country-level map of the global distribution of predicted AMR emergence risk, and compared these findings against reported AMR emergence to identify gaps in surveillance that can be used to direct prevention and intervention policies.