Futures and options
A Nation Of Gamblers: Real Estate Speculation And American History
Edward Glaeser
NBER Working Paper, February 2013
Abstract:
The great housing convulsion that buffeted America between 2000 and 2010 has historical precedents, from the frontier land boom of the 1790s to the skyscraper craze of the 1920s. But this time was different. There was far less real uncertainty about fundamental economic and geographic trends, making the convulsion even more puzzling. During historic and recent booms, sensible models could justify high prices on the basis of seemingly reasonable projections about stable or growing prices. The recurring error appears to be a failure to anticipate the impact that elastic supply will eventually have on prices, whether for cotton in Alabama in 1820 or land in Las Vegas in 2006. Buyers don't appear to be irrational but rather cognitively limited investors who work with simple heuristic models, instead of a comprehensive general equilibrium framework. Low interest rates rarely seem to drive price growth; under-priced default options are a more common contributor to high prices. The primary cost of booms has not typically been overbuilding, but rather the financial chaos that accompanies housing downturns.
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How Much Did Banks Pay to Become Too-Big-To-Fail and to Become Systemically Important?
Elijah Brewer & Julapa Jagtiani
Journal of Financial Services Research, February 2013, Pages 1-35
Abstract:
This paper estimates the value of the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) subsidy. Using data from the merger boom of 1991-2004, we find that banking organizations were willing to pay an added premium for mergers that would put them over the asset sizes that are commonly viewed as the thresholds for being TBTF. We estimate at least 15 billion in added premiums for the eight merger deals that brought the organizations to over 100 billion in assets. In addition, we find that both the stock and bond markets reacted positively to these TBTF merger deals. Our estimated TBTF subsidy is large enough to create serious concern, particularly since the recently assisted mergers have effectively allowed for TBTF banking organizations to become even bigger and for nonbanks to become part of TBTF banking organizations, thus extending the TBTF subsidy beyond banking.
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Claude Erb & Campbell Harvey
NBER Working Paper, January 2013
Abstract:
While gold objects have existed for thousands of years, gold's role in diversified portfolios is not well understood. We critically examine popular stories such as ‘gold is an inflation hedge'. We show that gold may be an effective hedge if the investment horizon is measured in centuries. Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge. We also explore valuation. The real price of gold is currently high compared to history. In the past, when the real price of gold was above average, subsequent real gold returns have been below average consistent with mean reversion. On the demand side, we focus on the official gold holdings of many countries. If prominent emerging markets increase their gold holdings to average per capita or per GDP holdings of developed countries, the real price of gold may rise even further from today's elevated levels. In the end, investors face a golden dilemma: 1) embrace a view that ‘those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it' and the purchasing power of gold is likely to revert to its mean or 2) embrace a view that the emergence of new markets represent a structural change and ‘this time is different'.
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Are there too many safe securities? Securitization and the incentives for information production
Samuel Hanson & Adi Sunderam
Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We present a model that helps explain several past collapses of securitization markets. Originators issue too many informationally insensitive securities in good times, blunting investor incentives to become informed. The resulting endogenous scarcity of informed investors exacerbates primary market collapses in bad times. Inefficiency arises because informed investors are a public good from the perspective of originators. All originators benefit from the presence of additional informed investors in bad times, but each originator minimizes his reliance on costly informed capital in good times by issuing safe securities. Our model suggests regulations that limit the issuance of safe securities in good times.
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Do Hedge Funds Outperform Stocks and Bonds?
Turan Bali, Stephen Brown & Ozgur Demirtas
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Hedge funds' extensive use of derivatives, short selling, and leverage and their dynamic trading strategies create significant nonnormalities in their return distributions. Hence, the traditional performance measures fail to provide an accurate characterization of the relative strength of hedge fund portfolios. This paper uses the utility-based nonparametric and parametric performance measures to determine which hedge fund strategies outperform the U.S. equity and/or bond markets. The results from the realized and simulated return distributions indicate that the long/short equity hedge and emerging markets hedge fund strategies outperform the U.S. equity market, and the long/short equity hedge, multistrategy, managed futures, and global macro hedge fund strategies dominate the U.S. Treasury market.
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Gareth Campbell
Financial History Review, April 2013, Pages 1-27
Abstract:
This article argues that the promotion boom which occurred in the railway industry during the mid 1840s was amplified by the issue of derivative-like assets, which let investors take highly leveraged positions in the shares of new railway companies. The partially paid shares which the new railway companies issued allowed investors to obtain exposure to an asset by paying only a small initial deposit. The consequence of this arrangement was that investor returns were substantially amplified, and many schemes could be financed simultaneously. However, when investors were required to make further payments it put a negative downward pressure on prices.
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From money storage to money store: Openness and transparency in bank architecture
Ann-Christine Frandsen et al.
Business History, forthcoming
Abstract:
In the middle of the twentieth century, banks changed from ‘closed' designs signifying wealth, security, and safety to ‘open' designs signifying hospitality, honesty, and transparency as the perception of money changed from a passive physical substance to be slowly accumulated to an active notational substance to be kept in motion. If money is saved, customers must trust that the bank is secure and their money will be there when they want it; if money is invested, customers must trust that it is being done openly and honestly and they are being well-advised. Architecture visually communicates that the institution can be trusted in the requisite way.
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Statistical Evidence of Falling Profits as Cause of Recession: A Short Note
José Tapia Granados
Review of Radical Political Economics, December 2012, Pages 484-493
Abstract:
Data on 251 quarters of the U.S. economy show that recessions are preceded by declines in profits. Profits stop growing and start falling four or five quarters before a recession. They strongly recover immediately after the recession. Since investment is to a large extent determined by profitability and investment is a major component of demand, the fall in profits leading to a fall in investment, in turn leading to a fall in demand, seems to be a basic mechanism in the causation of recessions.
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Access to capital, investment, and the financial crisis
Kathleen Kahle & René Stulz
Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
During the financial crisis, corporate borrowing and capital expenditures fall sharply. Most existing research links the two phenomena by arguing that a shock to bank lending (or more generally to the corporate credit supply) caused a reduction in capital expenditures. The economic significance of this causal link is tenuous, as we find that (1) bank-dependent firms do not decrease capital expenditures more than matching firms in the first year of the crisis or in the two quarters after Lehman's bankruptcy; (2) firms that are unlevered before the crisis decrease capital expenditures during the crisis as much as matching firms and, proportionately, more than highly levered firms; (3) the decrease in net debt issuance for bank-dependent firms is not greater than for matching firms; (4) the average cumulative decrease in net equity issuance is more than twice the average decrease in net debt issuance from the start of the crisis through March 2009; and (5) bank-dependent firms hoard cash during the crisis compared to unlevered firms.
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Can Market Discipline Work in the Case of Rating Agencies? Some Lessons from Moody's Stock Price
Gunter Löffler
Journal of Financial Services Research, April 2013, Pages 149-174
Abstract:
This paper examines whether the stock price of the rating agency Moody's reacts negatively to rating actions that could indicate low rating quality. The reaction to rating reversals, which Moody's describes as particularly damaging to investors, is economically significant. It suggests that market discipline has the potential to influence agency behavior. On the other hand, defaults of highly rated issuers do not consistently impact Moody's stock price. The focus on reversals and the neglect of default events are consistent with either collusion or with misconceptions of how rating quality should be evaluated. Both interpretations question whether market discipline can be sufficient to ensure a socially optimal rating policy within the current environment.
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Outsourcing Mutual Fund Management: Firm Boundaries, Incentives, and Performance
Joseph Chen et al.
Journal of Finance, April 2013, Pages 523-558
Abstract:
We investigate the effects of managerial outsourcing on the performance and incentives of mutual funds. Fund families outsource the management of a large fraction of their funds to advisory firms. These funds underperform those run internally by about 52 basis points per year. After instrumenting for a fund's outsourcing status, the estimated underperformance is three times larger. We hypothesize that contractual externalities due to firm boundaries make it difficult to extract performance from an outsourced relationship. Consistent with this view, outsourced funds face higher powered incentives; they are more likely to be closed after poor performance and excessive risk-taking.
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Economic policy and the presidential election cycle in stock returns
Ray Sturm
Journal of Economics and Finance, April 2013, Pages 200-215
Abstract:
Many papers in the academic literature have documented a "Presidential Election" cycle in stock returns. Prior literature also documents that stock returns appear to be influenced by economic policy. The goal of this study is to examine the tools of fiscal and monetary policy to test for the presence of a presidential election cycle. The findings strongly suggest that the presidential election cycle in stock returns and the government's economic policy influence on stock returns are two separate phenomena. Moreover, it is much more likely that stock returns are influencing economic policy rather than the other way around. However, the findings also suggest that tax legislation may drive the Presidential Election Cycle.
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Firm size distribution and mobility of the top 500 firms in China, the United States and the world
Jinzhong Guo et al.
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper considers the macroscopic and microscopic statistical features of the top 500 firms in China, the United States and the world, denoted as China 500 (CH500), Fortune 500 (US500) and Fortune Global 500 (FG500). From a macroscopic perspective, the firm size distribution of each category, when measured by revenue, is steadily distributed over the observed period, even during periods of financial crises. As is evidenced by the Gini coefficient, divergences between firm scales are most significant for the CH500. From a microscopic perspective, the underlying micro-dynamics are volatile and often turbulent due to the exit and entry of firms as well as shifts in their revenues and ranks. Such fluctuations, or mobility, are visualized in rank/revenue/share clocks. We also propose a revenue/rank/share mobility index that is a quantitative measurement of mobility. Among these, we find that the share mobility acts as an effective indicator of economic status; where there is a share mobility spike, there is an ailing economy. The share mobility indexes indicate that the 2008 Financial Crisis had little impact on the Chinese economy, while it triggered violent changes in the top 500 firms in the United States and the world.
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Foraging under conditions of short-term exploitative competition: The case of stock traders
Serguei Saavedra et al.
Proceedings of the Royal Society: Biological Sciences, 22 March 2013
Abstract:
Theory purports that animal foraging choices evolve to maximize returns, such as net energy intake. Empirical research in both human and non-human animals reveals that individuals often attend to the foraging choices of their competitors while making their own foraging choices. Owing to the complications of gathering field data or constructing experiments, however, broad facts relating theoretically optimal and empirically realized foraging choices are only now emerging. Here, we analyse foraging choices of a cohort of professional day traders who must choose between trading the same stock multiple times in a row - patch exploitation - or switching to a different stock - patch exploration - with potentially higher returns. We measure the difference between a trader's resource intake and the competitors' expected intake within a short period of time - a difference we call short-term comparative returns. We find that traders' choices can be explained by foraging heuristics that maximize their daily short-term comparative returns. However, we find no one-best relationship between different trading choices and net income intake. This suggests that traders' choices can be short-term win oriented and, paradoxically, maybe maladaptive for absolute market returns.
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Out of the blue: Mood maintenance hypothesis and seasonal effects on investors' reaction to news
Doron Kliger & Andrey Kudryavtsev
Quantitative Finance, forthcoming
Abstract:
Contemporary research documents various psychological aspects of economic decision-making. The main goal of our study is to analyse the role of the Mood Maintenance Hypothesis (MMH) in financial markets. MMH refers to people's tendency to maintain positive mood states, and implies that positive mood is associated with less critical thinking and reduced information processing, yielding three behavioral effects: (i) out of the blue, resulting in stronger negative reactions to bad news during good mood periods, (ii) sunray on a cloudy day, leading to stronger positive reactions to good news during bad mood periods, and (iii) shallow thinking, producing stronger reactions to all kinds of news during good mood periods. Employing daylight duration changes and a measure of onset and recovery from symptoms of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) as proxies for contemporaneous investors' mood, we test the role of mood in investors' reactions to analyst recommendation revisions. We find corroborative results, most notably that negative stock price reactions to recommendation downgrades are significantly stronger during daylight increasing periods, and, alternatively, during the periods characterized by low rates of onset and high rates of recovery from SAD. The magnitude of the effect increases in longer event windows.
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Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer
NBER Working Paper, January 2013
Abstract:
We present a simple model of asset pricing in which payoff salience drives investors' demand for risky assets. The key implication is that extreme payoffs receive disproportionate weight in the market valuation of assets. The model accounts for several puzzles in finance in an intuitive way, including preference for assets with a chance of very high payoffs, an aggregate equity premium, and countercyclical variation in stock market returns.
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A new approach to predicting analyst forecast errors: Do investors overweight analyst forecasts?
Eric So
Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
I provide evidence that investors overweight analyst forecasts by demonstrating that prices do not fully reflect predictable components of analyst errors, which conflicts with conclusions in prior research. I highlight estimation bias in traditional approaches and develop a new approach that reduces this bias. I estimate characteristic forecasts that map current firm characteristics into forecasts of future earnings. Contrasting characteristic and analyst forecasts predicts analyst forecast errors and revisions. I find abnormal returns to strategies that sort firms by predicted forecast errors, consistent with investors overweighting analyst forecasts and predictable biases in analyst forecasts influencing the information content of prices.
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A Model of the "It" Products in Fashion
Dmitri Kuksov & Kangkang Wang
Marketing Science, January/February 2013, Pages 51-69
Abstract:
One of the characteristics of the fashion marketplace is the unpredictability and apparent randomness of fashion hits. Another one is the information asymmetry among consumers. In this paper, we consider fashion as a means consumers use to signal belonging to a higher social rank and propose an analytical model of fashion hits in the presence of competition and consumers who can coordinate on which product to use. We show that, consistent with the observed market phenomenon, in equilibrium, consumer coordination involves randomization between products chosen, i.e., in randomness of fashion hits. Analyzing optimal consumer choice, we find that whenever low-type consumer demand for a product is positive, a price increase results in a higher probability of high-type consumers choosing this product but lower low-type consumer demand. We also show that although high-type consumers may prefer (higher) prices that would lead to complete separation of the high- and the low-type consumers through product use, in equilibrium, firms always price as to attract positive demand from low-type consumers. The equilibrium price and profits turn out to be nonmonotonic in the low-type consumer valuation of being recognized as belonging to a higher social rank. Equilibrium profits first increase and then decrease in this valuation.
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The Innovator's License: A Latitude to Deviate from Category Norms
Michael Barone & Robert Jewell
Journal of Marketing, January 2013, Pages 120-134
Abstract:
Firms often look for ways to improve the return on investment they earn from costly innovation strategies. The authors investigate a previously unexplored benefit of innovation that occurs when a brand's reputation as a provider of valued new offerings allows it to earn innovation credit, a form of customer-based brand equity. Innovation credit provides brands with the license or latitude to use strategies that violate category norms without the penalty (in the form of impaired attitudes) that consumers are shown to levy on less innovative brands. Consistent with the proposed theoretical framework, three studies demonstrate that innovative brands are granted the license to employ nonnormative strategies without sanction. In addition to providing evidence regarding the inferential mechanism underlying this licensing effect, Study 3 shows that, under certain conditions, innovative brands not only escape the penalty associated with using atypical strategies but are actually rewarded for utilizing such approaches. The authors provide theoretical and managerial implications of these findings and suggestions for further research in this emerging area of innovation research.