Funded
A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution
William Boning et al.
NBER Working Paper, June 2023
Abstract:
We estimate the returns to IRS audits of taxpayers across the income distribution. We find an additional $1 spent auditing taxpayers above the 90th income percentile yields more than $12 in revenue, while audits of below-median income taxpayers yield $5. We draw upon comprehensive internal accounting information and audit-level enforcement logs to quantify the average costs and revenues associated with each audit. We begin by estimating the average initial return to all audits of US taxpayers filing in 2010-2014. On average, $1 in audit spending raises $2.17 in initial revenue. Audits of high-income taxpayers are more costly, but the additional revenue raised more than offsets the costs. Audits of the 99-99.9th percentile have a 3.2:1 return; audits of the top 0.1% return 6.3:1. We then exploit the 40% audit reduction between tax years 2010 and 2014 to examine the returns to marginal audits. We find they exceed the returns to average audits. Revenues remain relatively unchanged but marginal costs fall below average costs due to economies of scale. Next, we use randomly selected audits to examine the impact of an initial audit on future revenue. This specific deterrence effect produces at least three times more revenue than the initial audit. Deterrence effects are relatively consistent across the income distribution. This results in the 12:1 return above the 90th percentile. We conclude by estimating the welfare consequences of audits using the MVPF framework and comparing audits to other revenue raising policies. We find that audits raise revenue at lower welfare cost.
The Effects of Cryptocurrency Wealth on Household Consumption and Investment
Darren Aiello et al.
NBER Working Paper, July 2023
Abstract:
This paper uses transaction-level data across millions of accounts to identify cryptocurrency investors and evaluate how fluctuations in individual crypto wealth affect household consumption, equity investment, and local real estate markets. We estimate an MPC out of unrealized crypto gains that is more than double the MPC out of unrealized equity gains but smaller than the MPC from exogenous cash flow shocks. This MPC is mostly driven by increases in cash/check spending and mortgages. Moreover, households sell crypto to increase both discretionary as well as housing spending. As a result, crypto wealth causes house price appreciation -- counties with higher crypto wealth see higher growth in home values following high crypto returns. Our results indicate that cryptocurrencies have substantial spillover effects on the real economy through consumption and investment into other asset classes.
Choose Your Moments: Peer Review and Scientific Risk Taking
Richard Carson, Joshua Graff Zivin & Jeffrey Shrader
NBER Working Paper, June 2023
Abstract:
Science funding agencies such as the NIH, NSF, and their counterparts around the world are often criticized for being too conservative, funding incremental innovations over more radical but riskier projects. One explanation for their conservatism is the way the agencies use peer review of scientific proposals. Peer review is the cornerstone of research allocation decisions, but agencies typically base decisions on a simple average of peer review scores. More novel ideas are less likely to gain consistently high ratings across evaluators and are less likely to be funded. Using a discrete choice experiment conducted with a large sample of active biomedical researchers, we find that -- in contrast to funding agencies -- scientists systematically prefer to fund projects with more reviewer dissensus. Rather than purely focusing on the first moment of the distribution of reviewer scores, they also value the second moment. Further, scientists with the greatest domain expertise on a proposal are more enthusiastic about dissensus, and while appetite for dissensus shrinks as budgets become tighter, it does not disappear completely. Applying our estimates to prior studies mimicking NIH’s review process shows that incorporating expert scientists’ preferences for dissensus would change marginal funding decisions for ten percent of projects worth billions of dollars per year.
When Do Property Taxes Matter? Tax Salience and Heterogeneous Policy Effects
Marina Gindelsky et al.
Journal of Housing Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Taxes create incentives; yet, the potency of these incentives may depend on the salience and households’ perceptions of the tax itself. We investigate this issue in the context of property taxes, exploring how accurately households perceive their property tax liabilities and what factors determine misperception. Leveraging a unique national dataset, created by linking Zillow's ZTRAX data to internal data from the American Community Survey, we first compare survey responses for how much households think they pay in property taxes to how much they actually pay based on municipal administrative records from ZTRAX. While homeowners’ tax perceptions are not substantially biased on average, we observe significant inaccuracy and systematic bias across different household(er) characteristics, institutional settings, and across states. Given that the vast majority of studies in the property tax capitalization literature use data concentrated in one state or locality, we also explore whether variation in tax misperceptions across states can help explain the heterogeneity in property tax effects on home prices. Results from a meta-analysis show that studies conducted in states with higher property tax misperceptions are significantly less likely to find property tax policy changes are fully capitalized into home prices.
Screen Now, Save Later? The Trade-Off between Administrative Ordeals and Fraud
Shan Aman-Rana, Daniel Gingerich & Sandip Sukhtankar
NBER Working Paper, June 2023
Abstract:
Screening requirements are common features of fraud and corruption mitigation efforts around the world. Yet imposing these requirements involves trade-offs between higher administrative costs, delayed benefits, and exclusion of genuine beneficiaries on one hand and lower fraud on the other. We examine these trade-offs in one of the largest economic relief programs in US history: the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Employing a database that includes nearly 11.5 million PPP loans, we assess the impact of screening by exploiting temporal variation in the documentation standards applied to loan applications for loans of different values. We find that screening significantly reduced the incidence and magnitude of various measures of loan irregularities that are indicative of fraud. Moreover, our analysis reveals that a subset of borrowers with a checkered history strategically reduced their loan application amounts in order to avoid being subjected to screening. Borrowers without a checkered history engaged in this behavior at a much lower rate, implying that the documentation requirement reduced fraud without imposing an undue administrative burden on legitimate firms. All told, our estimates imply that screening led to a reduction in losses due to fraud equal to at least $744 million.
The effect of open space maintenance spending on house prices
David Brasington
Journal of Regional Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
We study the effect on housing values of cutting funding for the maintenance of local parks and recreational areas. It is the first study we find on house prices and park maintenance spending, and only the second open space study we find that uses regression discontinuity. We study tax votes with exogenous timing for renewing current expense spending on parks and recreation, adding to the vibrant literature on house price capitalization of environmental amenities. We find that otherwise similar communities that barely vote to cut taxes suffer an 11% drop in house prices, compared to communities that barely vote to renew tax funding. The capitalization discount grows to 13% and 16% in later periods. Voting against spending saves $70 a year for a typical house but cuts house values by over $30,000. We find stronger effects for large tax levies and more expensive houses.
How Does Data Access Shape Science? Evidence from the Impact of U.S. Census’s Research Data Centers on Economics Research
Abhishek Nagaraj & Matteo Tranchero
NBER Working Paper, June 2023
Abstract:
This study examines the impact of access to confidential administrative data on the rate, direction, and policy relevance of economics research. To study this question, we exploit the progressive geographic expansion of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Federal Statistical Research Data Centers (FSRDCs). FSRDCs boost data diffusion, help empirical researchers publish more articles in top outlets, and increase citation-weighted publications. Besides direct data usage, spillovers to non-adopters also drive this effect. Further, citations to exposed researchers in policy documents increase significantly. Our findings underscore the importance of data access for scientific progress and evidence-based policy formulation.
Financial Reform and Public Good Provision: Municipal Bankruptcy Law and the Financing of Hospitals
Stefano Rossi & Hayong Yun
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Does financial reform improve public good provision? We examine state-level adoption of municipal bankruptcy law. After reform, municipalities’ borrowing costs decrease and bonds’ issuance increase, particularly for bonds financing hospitals; hospitals’ investments increase, particularly when using such bonds; local firms’ investment and performance increase, particularly in the construction sector. Ex ante, reform occurs earlier in states with weaker unions, stronger bondholders’ interests, and better courts. Similar factors explain congressional voting on municipal bankruptcy law. These results support the hypothesis that financial reform destroys labor union rents and expands investment, highlighting a novel spillover channel from public finance to the real economy.
Does state tax reciprocity affect interstate commuting? Evidence from a natural experiment
Gary Wagner & Jonathan Rork
Regional Science and Urban Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper exploits the 2010 dissolution of the personal income tax reciprocity agreement between Minnesota and Wisconsin to estimate how state tax policies affect interstate commuting. This policy shock increased tax liability for some commuters and tax compliance costs for all commuters. Using a synthetic control approach designed for panel data, we compare the interstate commuting behavior of Wisconsinites and Minnesotans to unaffected intrastate commuters who live and work in the same state, intrastate commuters who live in other large metro areas, and several multi-state metro areas in other states where income tax reciprocity remained intact. Post-dissolution, we find robust evidence that the number of interstate commuters in Wisconsin border counties falls between 3 and 5%, with stronger declines found for younger and middle-income workers.
The Price of Safety: The Evolution of Municipal Bond Insurance Value
Kimberly Cornaggia, John Hund & Giang Nguyen
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Economic theory predicts that bond insurance lowers issuers’ financing costs by resolving asymmetric information and mitigating credit risk. With comprehensive data over the last 36 years, we find increasingly diminished empirical support for these models. The value of insurance in resolving asymmetric information beyond that resolved by credit ratings and other observable bond characteristics is economically minimal. The average gross value of insurance ranges from 4 to 14 bps when bond insurers offer Aaa-rated coverage. However, this gross value becomes insignificant after 2008 when Aaa-rated insurance no longer exists. Evidence suggests that the lack of insurance benefit in the postcrisis period is attributable to the deteriorated creditworthiness of insurance companies. Examining noninterest saving explanations for the continued use of insurance in the no-Aaa insurance market, we find evidence that issuers purchase insurance out of habit (with insurance value most diminished for habitual purchasers with low governance quality) and for the convenience it affords in default, but no evidence that insurance improves secondary market liquidity.